Miscellany: Liberal Senate preselection, Being Chinese in Australia survey, Morgan polls (open thread)

Jockeying to fill Jim Molan’s Liberal Senate vacancy intensifies; Morgan finds weaker support for the Indigenous Voice than four months ago; and the Lowy Institute goes deep on the viewpoint of Chinese Australians.

Capping off the week with another New South Wales Liberal preselection tangle and three fresh poll results:

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic poll): Make that four, because it seems I missed the latest Resolve Strategic federal voting intention results from the Age/Herald, which are a stinker for the Coalition: Labor is up three to 42%, the Coalition down two to 28%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. This puts Labor solidly north of 60% on two-party by my reckoning, and has caused an observable uptick for them on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as seen on the sidebar. Peter Dutton’s personal ratings take a particularly striking turn for the worse, with a six point drop in his combined very good and good rating to 26% and a ten point spike on poor and very poor to 54%, the latter encompassing an eleven point increase in very poor to 34%. Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 51-22 to 55-21, and he’s up one on approval to 56% and down two on disapproval to 29%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

• The Liberals have opened nominations for a preselection to fill the party’s vacant New South Wales Senate seat following the death of Jim Molan in January, which will be held in late May. Max Maddison of The Australian reports moderates are dividing between state party president Maria Kovacic and former Bega MP and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance. In the former’s favour is a view that the position should go to a woman, with Salesforce executive director Gisele Kapterian rated another moderate option if conservative opposition to Kovacic looks decisive. Factional lines are blurred to the extent that Kovacic has support from the centre right, while Constance is supported by Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney, a conservative who was widely identified as the favourite for the position before he announced he would not run. Constance will reportedly establish an electorate office on the South Coast if successful as a springboard for another bid for Gilmore in 2025. A late potential contender is Katherine Deves, whose conservative positions on transgender issues made national headlines during her unsuccessful run for Warringah last year. However, Deves says she would stand aside if Warren Mundine, who along with Senator Jacinta Price has been the leading Aboriginal campaigner against the Indigenous Voice, responds to conservative entreaties to throw his hat into the ring.

• The Lowy Institute has published results from its third annual Being Chinese in Australia survey, conducted online from a sample of 1200 “Australian citizens, permanent residents or long-term visa holders who self-identified as having Chinese ancestry”, between September 27 to December 10. Among its findings were that 60% expressed confidence in Anthony Albanese to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 29% for not much or none, while Peter Dutton respectively rated 25% and 56%. The sample was more favourable on this score towards Xi Jinping (42% confident, 47% not confident) and Vladimir Putin (29% and 58%) than the Australian public at large, and less favourable towards Joe Biden (34% and 55%) and Voldymyr Zelenskyy (32% and 51%). Asked the same question in relation to countries, the sample broke favourably by 75-25 for Australia, 61-40 for China, 54-46 for Taiwan, 53-47 for the United States and 51-49 for Japan.

Presumably reflecting the change of government, those rating Australia-China relations as a “critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years” fell from 51% to 37%, while concern over military conflict between the United States and China was little changed at 36%. Only 15% professed themselves very concerned about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, compared with 69% for a similar question in another survey targeting the population at large. Twenty-seven per cent said AUKUS would make Australia more safe compared with 26% for less safe, and 52% and 7% respectively for the Australian population at large. Notable changes from last year’s results were an increase in agreement that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, from 34% to 48%, and more favourable results on questions regarding whether Australia was a good place to live, or if respondents had personally been vilified because of their heritage. There was a drop in those saying Australian media reporting about China was too negative from 57% to 42%, with as many deeming if fair and balanced and 13% thinking it too positive.

• Roy Morgan has published results from an SMS survey conducted from 1181 respondents to Friday to Tuesday which found 46% saying they would vote yes to an Indigenous Voice with no at 39%, compared with 53% and 30% when it last conducted the exercise in December. The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

991 comments on “Miscellany: Liberal Senate preselection, Being Chinese in Australia survey, Morgan polls (open thread)”

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  1. But yeah you’d need to be a very stupid partisan to try and win points from the third most important Australian going to watch the King of Australia become more kingy.

    Who are first two?

  2. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
    I am watching Blackadder III and had a horrible insight to the future Prince Regent

    Each Blackadder season is better than the one before it. III was much better than II (and the very ordinary I). IV was the best, and a bit better than III. Also more poignant.

    Blackadder (the character) gets smarter, and Baldric gets stupider.

  3. A lineage which resulted in King Chucky.. will he do a Bertie?

    Edward VII isn’t the best known or most celebrated of British monarchs. The oldest son of Queen Victoria sat on the throne for only nine years due to her longevity, from 1901 to 1910. While he was a perfectly adequate king, in historical terms he is vastly overshadowed by his mother and his son, George V.

    However, there is one area in which he outdid everyone around him: Edward VII was, throughout his life, an extremely horny individual.

    After losing his virginity in his army barracks to actress Nellie Clifden, smuggled on-site with help from fellow officers, word got back to his parents. Prince Albert died not long later, and Victoria is said to have partly blamed his death on the stress of the impropriety of young Bertie (his first name was actually Albert, after his father). A wedding was arranged with Princess Alexandra of Denmark, and at 22 the future king was married.

    But he was also just getting started. While he and Alexandra got on very well, and eventually had five children, the prince had a roving eye. His duties involved a lot of travel, which he used to conceal numerous affairs, with varying degrees of success—his philandering earned him the nicknames “Dirty Bertie” and “Edward the Caresser”.

    He had affairs with a lot of well-known women of the time, including—deep breath—actress Sarah Bernhardt, Lady Randolph Churchill (Winston’s mother), Mary Cornwallis-West (whose mother had attempted to seduce Prince Albert), Daisy Greville (the countess of Warwick and inspiration for the song Daisy, Daisy), Alice Keppel (great-grandmother of Camilla, the current Duchess of Cornwall), hospital founder Agnes Keyser, actress and model Lillie Langtry, Lady Susan Vane-Tempest (said to have secretly had the prince’s baby), Moulin Rouge can-can dancer Mademoiselle La Goulue, actress La Belle Otero (who was said to have driven six former lovers to suicide) and famed soprano Hortense Schneider.

  4. This just posted on The Royal Family’s Twitter feed (with a blue tick) – ready to show a glimpse of leg

    ️The King has appointed the Right Honourable the Baroness Ashton of Upholland GCMG to be a Lady Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter, and the Right Honourable the Lord Patten of Barnes CH to be a Knight Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter.

  5. I think constitutional reform including a republic is long overdue.

    There is of course the republic of the mind to be realised – which you can see with comments like steve777 and his talk of “discourtesy”. There are many modern forelock tuggers in our ranks including it would seem Albo.

    And surprisingly Asha – with a heretofore unknown sense of propriety.

  6. Both Charles’ parents lived into their late 90s. Charles is likely to be King for a while. Maybe he’ll be our last King.

    What would a Republic timetable be now? The first condition – booting the Coalition from office – has been fulfilled. The second condition – a second term for Labor – looks likely.

    A third condition, bipartisanship, won’t happen under Dutton or any likely future leader, while the Nationals will never come on board. While twenty years ago most commentators assumed that Howard would be our last Monarchist PM, that turned out to be wrong. Any move for a Republic will be accompanied by the sort of disinformation and scares we saw back in 1999 and now with the Voice.

    But let’s be optimistic. The Voice succeeds, breaking the old truism that referendums can’t be won without bipartisan support. Albo goes into the November 2024 election promising a move towards a Republic. Labor wins, with the Opposition reduced to a rump. They finally decide that didn’t lose because they were not far enough right,

    We’ll need to have an indicative plebiscite first. Yes / No to the Republic. Say late 2025. It gets up, in spite of Coalition opposition. Then we’d need a process to agree on the model. That’s where it came unstuck last time. A couple of constitutional conferences. Finally, we need the wording to put to a referendum. All this probably can’t all be done in Labor’s second term.

    So Labor needs a third term. It gets one in the November 2027 election, promising the Republic Referendum. Labor wins, not as strongly as in 2024 but comfortably. By now, a majority of Liberals, now moving back towards the Centre, support the Republic.

    The Referendum is held in November 2028. It wins, Republic Day January 1, 2030.

    I think it likely that something like the above is the best case scenario.

  7. Ask and ye shall receive sprocket:

    The Post of Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports ( once so admirably held by Sir Robert Gordon Menzies) has fallen vacant and is in the gift of Charles III.

    Perhaps in recognition of the obedience and affection of his Australian realm another high profile Australian appointment is due.

    Maybe Kim Beazley ticks the boxes (after all he has been a Royal Governor)?


  8. Much like Nixon going to China, constitutional reform will come from the conservatives in Australia not Labor.

  9. Steve777

    If the Liberal Party lose more seats at the next federal election, what remains of them will become even more conservative. They are not going to go to a more centrist pathway when their caucus will be the most right-wing on record.

    A third term for Labor, with nearly as many seats in 2027/8 as 2024/5, is a distinct possibility. But there is no hope of bipartisanship.

  10. I thought to come on here for some light relief from marking mid-terms. Thank you for convincing me that marking isn’t that bad. As you were 🙂

  11. In his latter year, Edward VII was tremendously obese, so much so, that the sex act became difficult for him. In reponse Edward designed and had built a special seat, cum bench that allowed him to copulate with women without crushing the life out of them. It still exists and photos can be accessed on the internet.

  12. clem attleesays:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 8:21 pm
    In his latter year, Edward VII was tremendously obese, so much so, that the sex act became difficult for him. In reponse Edward designed and had built a special seat, cum bench that allowed him to copulate with women without crushing the life out of them. It still exists and photos can be accessed on the internet.
    I believe this item is now in sprocket’s special collection.

  13. clem attlee
    In reponse Edward designed and had built a special seat, cum bench

    As someone who is interested purely for historical reasons: Was the “special seat” and “cum bench” the same item, or separate items?

  14. Aaron N ”well there are some republicans in the liberals but they are pritty silent”

    Just like the “moderates”. Even so, the moderates are dominant at State level in NSW, while the Liberals in Tas and SA seem to be fairly moderate. They might have learnt their lesson in Victoria. Maybe the Federal Liberals will take note if they come to realise that Labor won’t be falling over and even Rupert can’t save them.

    Alternatively, they merge with the Nationals and One Nation to remain a splinter group with a rural and regional base and the business community sets up a new Centre-right party.

  15. Some people tonight discovering why you should just ignore Lars’ shit rather than rolling around in it.

    Speaking of shit:

    “China’s ambassador to France Lu Shaye has told French television that ex-Soviet states have no effective status as sovereign countries, bringing into question Beijing’s attempts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.”

    ““These ex-USSR countries don’t have actual status in international law because there is no international agreement to materialise their sovereign status,” Shaye said.”

    You know in case anybody still thought China was acting in good faith.

    This argument has no relationship to actual international law. It’s just China saying they don’t give a damn about Russia absorbing anything that used to be part of the Soviet empire – gee I wonder why that’s a precedent they now want to create….

    Very peaceful and respectful of international institutions though China, just ask Keating.

  16. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham · 2m

    #Newspoll Albanese net +16 (-5, 53-37)
    Dutton net -19 (-6, 33-52)
    Better PM (skews to incumbents) Albanese leads 54-28 (lead down 6)

  17. Well, I’ve been doing a good thing and watched Lego Grand Masters instead of rolling around in Lars’ grease trap. 🙂

  18. Boerwar @ #935 Sunday, April 23rd, 2023 – 6:56 pm

    Dual engine S3: 0-60mph in 2.9 seconds.
    As you were.

    I can’t find anywhere that lets me configure/price/buy one of those.

    But that’s only Model3 levels of performance, and the single engine version S3 costs the same as the dual-motor Model3 while also managing to be at least 10% slower. “At least” because the Model3 can get a $3000 software unlock that boosts performance by another 15%, so…25% faster at the same price.

    ICE vehicles stopped being competitive years ago. They’re basically zombies now.

  19. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/04/21/miscellany-liberal-senate-preselection-being-chinese-in-australia-survey-morgan-polls-open-thread/comment-page-18/#comment-4101191

    I think we need less tail, and more teeth.
    More like Northwestern Europe, Switzerland (communes/ Kreis, canton, federal), less like the Poms.
    Local councils.
    State/ territory governments, both houses.
    Federation, I’d reduce to about five ministries (DPC/ COAG, dollars, trade defence, justice), probably by dropping income tax, payroll tax, and raising the GST, rates.
    Get the OECD minimum tax in.
    Organised religion to be taxed and levy-ed for polluting minds. (And confiscate i/c clusters of abuse, turn it into social housing. )
    Not sure about stamp duty/ land taxes.
    Half parliament but pay those remaining double, insist any aspiring pollyTIC has a grammar/ tech HSC equivalent and passes a public service exam.
    May be even have a quota on business, engineers, lawyers, medicos, others …
    Next voting from electoral offices, so we have pollyTICs that are in their community at night. It would also save on entitlements/ expenses.
    Death duties for estates over $xyM.
    Rotate state/ territory governors/ Premiers/ First Minister through GG/ PM roles.
    A federal ICAC, campaign finance reform, useful FoI (everything except classified documents released same month), mandatory and binding referendums (war powers included … colonial Union Jack, if perhaps not glorification of deeds for the empire by joining wars of choice).

  20. Dave @ 12.52pm
    The car service / warranty deal is an illegal scam run by car dealers to maximise their post-sale profits.
    The only dealer service I ever use is the first 1 000km check – just in case there may be something amiss.
    After that it is to the private business which has been servicing the family vehicles since 1985.
    The vehicle warranty / guarantee is a fixture of state – national law.
    If your vehicle is a dud, then under the time constraints of the warranty, they are responsible for the repairs.
    This should and does apply to EVs as it currently does to current internal combustion engine cars,

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