Miscellany: Liberal Senate preselection, Being Chinese in Australia survey, Morgan polls (open thread)

Jockeying to fill Jim Molan’s Liberal Senate vacancy intensifies; Morgan finds weaker support for the Indigenous Voice than four months ago; and the Lowy Institute goes deep on the viewpoint of Chinese Australians.

Capping off the week with another New South Wales Liberal preselection tangle and three fresh poll results:

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic poll): Make that four, because it seems I missed the latest Resolve Strategic federal voting intention results from the Age/Herald, which are a stinker for the Coalition: Labor is up three to 42%, the Coalition down two to 28%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. This puts Labor solidly north of 60% on two-party by my reckoning, and has caused an observable uptick for them on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as seen on the sidebar. Peter Dutton’s personal ratings take a particularly striking turn for the worse, with a six point drop in his combined very good and good rating to 26% and a ten point spike on poor and very poor to 54%, the latter encompassing an eleven point increase in very poor to 34%. Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 51-22 to 55-21, and he’s up one on approval to 56% and down two on disapproval to 29%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

• The Liberals have opened nominations for a preselection to fill the party’s vacant New South Wales Senate seat following the death of Jim Molan in January, which will be held in late May. Max Maddison of The Australian reports moderates are dividing between state party president Maria Kovacic and former Bega MP and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance. In the former’s favour is a view that the position should go to a woman, with Salesforce executive director Gisele Kapterian rated another moderate option if conservative opposition to Kovacic looks decisive. Factional lines are blurred to the extent that Kovacic has support from the centre right, while Constance is supported by Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney, a conservative who was widely identified as the favourite for the position before he announced he would not run. Constance will reportedly establish an electorate office on the South Coast if successful as a springboard for another bid for Gilmore in 2025. A late potential contender is Katherine Deves, whose conservative positions on transgender issues made national headlines during her unsuccessful run for Warringah last year. However, Deves says she would stand aside if Warren Mundine, who along with Senator Jacinta Price has been the leading Aboriginal campaigner against the Indigenous Voice, responds to conservative entreaties to throw his hat into the ring.

• The Lowy Institute has published results from its third annual Being Chinese in Australia survey, conducted online from a sample of 1200 “Australian citizens, permanent residents or long-term visa holders who self-identified as having Chinese ancestry”, between September 27 to December 10. Among its findings were that 60% expressed confidence in Anthony Albanese to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 29% for not much or none, while Peter Dutton respectively rated 25% and 56%. The sample was more favourable on this score towards Xi Jinping (42% confident, 47% not confident) and Vladimir Putin (29% and 58%) than the Australian public at large, and less favourable towards Joe Biden (34% and 55%) and Voldymyr Zelenskyy (32% and 51%). Asked the same question in relation to countries, the sample broke favourably by 75-25 for Australia, 61-40 for China, 54-46 for Taiwan, 53-47 for the United States and 51-49 for Japan.

Presumably reflecting the change of government, those rating Australia-China relations as a “critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years” fell from 51% to 37%, while concern over military conflict between the United States and China was little changed at 36%. Only 15% professed themselves very concerned about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, compared with 69% for a similar question in another survey targeting the population at large. Twenty-seven per cent said AUKUS would make Australia more safe compared with 26% for less safe, and 52% and 7% respectively for the Australian population at large. Notable changes from last year’s results were an increase in agreement that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, from 34% to 48%, and more favourable results on questions regarding whether Australia was a good place to live, or if respondents had personally been vilified because of their heritage. There was a drop in those saying Australian media reporting about China was too negative from 57% to 42%, with as many deeming if fair and balanced and 13% thinking it too positive.

• Roy Morgan has published results from an SMS survey conducted from 1181 respondents to Friday to Tuesday which found 46% saying they would vote yes to an Indigenous Voice with no at 39%, compared with 53% and 30% when it last conducted the exercise in December. The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

991 comments on “Miscellany: Liberal Senate preselection, Being Chinese in Australia survey, Morgan polls (open thread)”

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  1. Given Albanese supposedly supports a Australian head of state, the appropriate thing to do is send the GG.

    Albo is really enjoying all the perks of being PM.

  2. So dude got the words wrong, then said a Christian prayer/ blessing, followed by the national anthem, but not NZ’s.

    But then it.got serious with pop songs and now the war porn is over the important chanting and soccer has commenced.

  3. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 5:59 pm

    https://www.royal.uk/coronation-oath-2-june-1953

    Here is the 1953 Coronation Oath – you can see the Queen explicitly promises to govern Australia in the presence of Sir Robert Gordon Menzies.

    In the presence of Albo , the King will promise to govern Australia amongst other personal possessions.

    Whats actually changed?

    Like it all not due the ignorant actions of one John Howard the referendum was lost and this is where we find ourselves.


  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    Given Albanese supposedly supports a Australian head of state, the appropriate thing to do is send the GG.

    Albo is really enjoying all the perks of being PM.

    Crap as expected.

  5. Now your seeing it frednk.

    Yet Albo CHOSE to attend the coronation , confirming Australia’s subordinate status.

    I wonder if the leaders of the other sovereign realms are attending?

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:08 pm

    Now your seeing it frednk.

    Yet Albo CHOSE to attend the coronation , confirming Australia’s subordinate status.

    I wonder if the leaders of the other sovereign realms are attending?
    ____________________________

    Hmmm I wonder, could make a guess based on who went to QE2s funeral a few months back, I think all of them from memory.

  7. I’m fine with ANZAC day, I’ve been marching since the mid-sixties when it wasn’t so ‘popular’. The Tories used it for culture war purposes and the $500m for the AWM/Disney theme park was a low point.
    While the day remains, it is very difficult for opponents of Indigenous reconciliation to tell First Nations People to ‘just get over it’ when attempting to consign the evens of the last 200+ years to the dust-bin.
    Should we just ‘get over’ the events of 1914-18 or ‘39-‘45?
    Mind you the looks on the faces of those I’ve confronted with that question start looking at their watches and for an exit fairly soon after.

  8. Rex Douglas:

    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:00 pm

    [‘Shouldn’t that be ‘Andrews is CORRUPTLY liasing with his family’ …?’]

    Perhaps. Though I think many Melburnians will welcome a good send-off for putting Moonee Ponds on the world map.

  9. its strange the liberals are now carying on about job seeker the party of robodebt who attacked people on welfair for years

  10. Mavis
    By the way, Andrews is liasing with his family re. a State funeral.

    **********************************************************
    The Melbourne International Comedy Festival has no ongoing interest!

  11. Maiden was particularly fluffy on Insiders this morning.
    Someone should ask PvO why, if Bandt could only scratch together 12% on getting rid of the S3 tax cuts Labor should be ‘brave’ on them.
    Meanwhile, the best that Bandt can do is to block 30,000 houses. Idiot stuff.

  12. ‘frednk says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:07 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    Given Albanese supposedly supports a Australian head of state, the appropriate thing to do is send the GG.

    Albo is really enjoying all the perks of being PM.

    Crap as expected.’
    ————————
    Integrity’s crap is not as good as it used to be.

  13. @Dog’s Brunch

    That is the trouble with ANZAC day, it was hijacked by Howard and turned into a jingoistic day of bogun pride, the low point was certainly the parade of VZ commodores with flags all over them and yobbos inside.

    On a more positive note, when i was in my last little town we had a very respectful dawn service that recognised not just the vetrans but also the people died in the last year from the town, was actually very moving.

    Also it started with a big town BBQ breakfast and beer at the CFA – just the thing at 5:30am and, pretty much the whole town came together.

  14. Lars Von Trier
    Last time I checked shogun France was not a sovereign realm of the Britisher Royal Family.
    I think you’ll find there is a specific reference to Australia in the coronation ceremony. Albo’s presence is condoning that subordinate relationship.

    Speaking of the Hundred Years War – specifically the Battle of Agincourt – you are drawing a very long bow with that claim.

  15. Boerwar
    Meanwhile, the best that Bandt can do is to block 30,000 houses. Idiot stuff.

    This pig-headed obstructionism by the Greens and the Coalition will only add more heat to the rental market.

    Mrs Shogun and the young Shoguns (one of them anyway) want us to buy an investment property. This decision by the Greens might clinch it for me.

  16. Well attendance at a coronation ceremony is clearly a mark of affection and obedience.

    I note Jamaica has announced it intends to be a republic by 2025. THEIR PM will not be attending presumably.

  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:33 pm

    The future is secure.

    https://www.royal.uk/prince-george

    Our nextest future Monarch is 10 years old waiting to reign over us in due course. If we are lucky he may even visit his Australian sovereign realm a few times before his 18th birthday.
    _____________________

    I am watching Blackadder III and had a horrible insight to the future Prince Regent

  18. Dr John:

    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:17 pm

    Mavis

    By the way, Andrews is liaising with his family re. a State funeral.

    **********************************************************
    [‘The Melbourne International Comedy Festival has no ongoing interest!’]

    Yes, I know. I’m not impressed with its decision. Humphries
    was born in ’34. In the ’50s & ’60s Melbourne didn’t exactly excite. To digress, a witty line was that his son told his mother that he was a practising homoeopath, living with another homoeopath; her daughter, a serial shoplifter, until she united with her female oppressor, both of whom shopped at Ikea.

  19. laz so your a republican now is there any prominet liberal republicansdutton is not realy a strong monakist same with religion but willu use it as a culture war at least the king will not be on the new 5 dolar note somthing dutton tried to make a big deal of thel liberral party and there msm mates who had to be pushed by labor and greens to increase new start are now atempting to protend there support the poor morrison only increased the payment due to presure from labor hopefuly rex will agree

  20. we should be a republic hopefuly after voice despite the hard rights claims the publick has not warmed to prince charles ted obrian briefly lead the republican movement at least fitsimons has left

  21. ‘BK says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:24 pm

    I can think of nothing much worse than having to sit through a coronation ceremony. Hardy a perk’
    ——————————–
    What happens should one be caught short at a critical point?

  22. Themunz 1:56pm

    “ Number two son had a drive of my MYP Friday night.
    With four of us in the car he gave it a squirt from standing start for a couple of hundred metres. Wife screamed…. “my glasses!”… They had landed in the back next to the tail gate!

    My driving will be confined to “chill” mode.”
    ————————————————————-

    😆 Ms Cronus is loving it too much and wants to do most of the driving nowadays, I’ve created an EV monster. She loves the takeoffs.

  23. I think Lars has to hand in his LNP membership or face the Liberal equivalent of ex-communication as those views directly conflict with the Liberal Party principles that supports the continues constitutional monarchy in Australia.

  24. Personally I couldn’t careless if Albo goes to the bizzare medieval coronation to make the clown who, inexplicably, is already our King, our King again for extra real now.

    It is like the stupidest fairlytale but it is actually happening.

    Politically Albo would have been better of sending the clowns, local clown in Australia, the secret sauce of secret ministrys the throughly disreputable GG.

  25. 98.6 says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 2:06 pm
    The Palaszczuk Labor government is doubling the subsidy on new EV cars from $3,000 to $6,000 and those who bought one previously can reclaim the extra $3,000 dollars.
    Terms and Conditions Apply.

    My sympathy to Ray Hadley.
    —————————————-

    Also raised the level to $68k allowing purchases of Tesla Model 3s.

  26. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:54 pm

    Charles the Environmentalist Wannabe Hero owns 23 cars.
    But is that enough?
    __________________

    Only 23? what about the Royal fleet? Always thought it is great being an enviro wannabee but driving a V8 Aston Martin

  27. These types of occasions – Coronations, funerals of world leaders. various summits – are another opportunity for Albo to meet other world leaders on the sidelines. In any case, Britain is a long-standing friend and ally. Why would the Prime Minister not attend? It would be discourteous not to except in the event of serious issues back home.

  28. I certainly hope that the Aussie TV ‘personalities’ that go to cover the coronation have an updated celebrity spotters guide so we don’t have any misidentification of attendees. Mind you, would Liz Truss be going?

  29. “These types of occasions – Coronations, funerals of world leaders. various summits – are another opportunity for Albo to meet other world leaders on the sidelines. In any case, Britain is a long-standing friend and ally. Why would the Prime Minister not attend? It would be discourteous not to except in the event of serious issues back home.”

    Yeah 100%, notwithstanding I think sending the ridiculous GG to watch the already king be crowned king, and circus of the inexplicably bizzare, people of faith get a rough time here, but surely being a monarchist is 1000% worse.

    But yeah you’d need to be a very stupid partisan to try and win points from the third most important Australian going to watch the King of Australia become more kingy.

  30. Tim wilson is now horning in on Zoe Daniels reef laying in QLD. What a shitful act. He’ll never be back in parliament.

  31. The Lars Team ™ appear to be experts on Royal Coronation Protocol, amongst many other things.

    A few questions LT – have the traditions of ‘seat warming’ and ‘whipping boy’ been maintained by King Charles?

    And have the footmen, food tasters and court jesters been retained under His Majesties pleasure?

    Thanking you in anticipation

  32. goll:

    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7:06 pm

    [‘It gets very weird sometimes in the PBasphere.’]

    Please support same with evidence.

  33. The usual suspects bagging Albanese for going to the coronation.
    They would bag him for being disrespectful to our head of state if he stayed home.
    Pathetic.

    Edit: Their heroes Howard and Abbott wouldn’t be able to get on the plane fast enough.

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 3:59 pm

    Does Albo have to do an oath of obedience to the monarch at the Coronation ?

    He saves that for the fossil fuel industry.
    _____________

    Cartel, Rex, fossil fuel cartel.

    You must be having one of those days.

  35. I’m not sure if the Women’s Weekly is still published, but if it was, it would have pictures of that nice Mr Albanese attending the coronation of the king..

    And probably the WW has 100,000 times the readership of the Green Left Weekly

  36. C@tmomma @ Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 3:31 pm:
    =====================

    C@tmomma, thank you very much for this! No, I hadn’t seen any news of this before now. I note that Yevgeny Prigozhin, at least, can see the writing very clearly on the wall. No wonder he wants Russia to take the ‘bird in the hand’, so to speak, and focus solely on holding what they’ve taken to date.

    [#3 today]

  37. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7:12 pm
    The Lars Team ™ appear to be experts on Royal Coronation Protocol, amongst many other things. A few questions LT – have the traditions………………………….been maintained by King Charles?
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I’ll add one more to your inquiry list sprocket_
    Royal sex chair!

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