Capping off the week with another New South Wales Liberal preselection tangle and three fresh poll results:
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic poll): Make that four, because it seems I missed the latest Resolve Strategic federal voting intention results from the Age/Herald, which are a stinker for the Coalition: Labor is up three to 42%, the Coalition down two to 28%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. This puts Labor solidly north of 60% on two-party by my reckoning, and has caused an observable uptick for them on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as seen on the sidebar. Peter Dutton’s personal ratings take a particularly striking turn for the worse, with a six point drop in his combined very good and good rating to 26% and a ten point spike on poor and very poor to 54%, the latter encompassing an eleven point increase in very poor to 34%. Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 51-22 to 55-21, and he’s up one on approval to 56% and down two on disapproval to 29%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
• The Liberals have opened nominations for a preselection to fill the party’s vacant New South Wales Senate seat following the death of Jim Molan in January, which will be held in late May. Max Maddison of The Australian reports moderates are dividing between state party president Maria Kovacic and former Bega MP and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance. In the former’s favour is a view that the position should go to a woman, with Salesforce executive director Gisele Kapterian rated another moderate option if conservative opposition to Kovacic looks decisive. Factional lines are blurred to the extent that Kovacic has support from the centre right, while Constance is supported by Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney, a conservative who was widely identified as the favourite for the position before he announced he would not run. Constance will reportedly establish an electorate office on the South Coast if successful as a springboard for another bid for Gilmore in 2025. A late potential contender is Katherine Deves, whose conservative positions on transgender issues made national headlines during her unsuccessful run for Warringah last year. However, Deves says she would stand aside if Warren Mundine, who along with Senator Jacinta Price has been the leading Aboriginal campaigner against the Indigenous Voice, responds to conservative entreaties to throw his hat into the ring.
• The Lowy Institute has published results from its third annual Being Chinese in Australia survey, conducted online from a sample of 1200 “Australian citizens, permanent residents or long-term visa holders who self-identified as having Chinese ancestry”, between September 27 to December 10. Among its findings were that 60% expressed confidence in Anthony Albanese to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 29% for not much or none, while Peter Dutton respectively rated 25% and 56%. The sample was more favourable on this score towards Xi Jinping (42% confident, 47% not confident) and Vladimir Putin (29% and 58%) than the Australian public at large, and less favourable towards Joe Biden (34% and 55%) and Voldymyr Zelenskyy (32% and 51%). Asked the same question in relation to countries, the sample broke favourably by 75-25 for Australia, 61-40 for China, 54-46 for Taiwan, 53-47 for the United States and 51-49 for Japan.
Presumably reflecting the change of government, those rating Australia-China relations as a “critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years” fell from 51% to 37%, while concern over military conflict between the United States and China was little changed at 36%. Only 15% professed themselves very concerned about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, compared with 69% for a similar question in another survey targeting the population at large. Twenty-seven per cent said AUKUS would make Australia more safe compared with 26% for less safe, and 52% and 7% respectively for the Australian population at large. Notable changes from last year’s results were an increase in agreement that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, from 34% to 48%, and more favourable results on questions regarding whether Australia was a good place to live, or if respondents had personally been vilified because of their heritage. There was a drop in those saying Australian media reporting about China was too negative from 57% to 42%, with as many deeming if fair and balanced and 13% thinking it too positive.
• Roy Morgan has published results from an SMS survey conducted from 1181 respondents to Friday to Tuesday which found 46% saying they would vote yes to an Indigenous Voice with no at 39%, compared with 53% and 30% when it last conducted the exercise in December. The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%.
This is the second time a blog has referred Andrew Constance as “Gilmore” and it also says 2015 and not 2025.
On the basis of the Liberals’ track record on female representation, we can expect Constance will be selected for the senate vacancy.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. My odo has ticked over to 78 today – another year gone!
It’s not Phil’s fault, writes Shane Wright who says the review shows the RBA issues to be broad and deep.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-phil-s-fault-review-shows-rba-issues-broad-and-deep-20230420-p5d1zq.html
A powerful review has called for fewer RBA meetings and more press conferences, but economists say it won’t change the path of interest rates. Clancy Yeates and Millie Muroi tell us what has been opined.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/rba-review-won-t-change-the-path-of-interest-rates-20230420-p5d225.html
More economists, more press conferences, and more speeches – the new era of communications is coming to the RBA. The AFR editorial seems pleased with the review and Chalmers’ response.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-enters-a-new-era-of-expertise-and-diversity-20230417-p5d0y8
John Quiggin is concerned that the RBA review ignores the global failure of inflation management to prevent financial chaos.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/20/we-need-to-abandon-the-idea-of-an-all-wise-central-bank-keeping-spendthrift-governments-in-check
Jonathan Shapiro tells us about the RBA’s billion-dollar blunders, and why it’s still paying for them.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-rba-s-billion-dollar-blunders-and-why-we-re-still-paying-for-them-20230420-p5d1x9
Unions say the appointment of former Fair Work Commission president, judge and ACTU assistant secretary Iain Ross to the board of the Reserve Bank was a better choice than an actual trade union representative.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/iain-ross-better-than-a-union-rep-on-rba-board-actu-20230420-p5d221
David Crowe says that cabinet ministers will have to get used to repeating the frank admission Bill Shorten made on Wednesday morning when was asked why the government could not be more generous to some of the country’s most vulnerable people. Shorten, the Minister for Government Services and the National Disability Insurance Scheme, was asked if the JobSeeker rate was high enough to help Australians who were out of work.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-this-budget-won-t-be-as-generous-as-people-hope-20230419-p5d1ma.html
The government invited ambit claims for the budget and now it will be judged against them, says Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-government-invited-ambit-claims-for-the-budget-and-now-it-will-be-judged-against-them-204193
Billions for AUKUS submarines are not a good look in light of Welfare Report showing rising poverty. Ben Phillips reports on Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Budget conundrum.
https://michaelwest.com.au/poverty-conundrum-for-jim-chalmers-as-welfare-report-lands-budget-looms/
Paul Karp and Tamsin Rose tell us about the various Liberals putting up their hands to fill Jim Molan’s senate vacancy. Even Catherine Deves gets a mention.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/21/nsw-liberal-moderates-line-up-against-conservatives-including-katherine-deves-to-fill-senate-vacancy
Liam Mannix refers to a review that has found politicians interfering with peer-reviewed science grants is a “widespread source of despair” and should be stamped out.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/government-review-blasts-political-meddling-in-science-20230420-p5d20c.html
The Dominion v Fox case was about protecting profits, not democracy, writes Waleed Aly.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-dominion-v-fox-case-was-about-protecting-profits-not-democracy-20230420-p5d22l.html
Fox has just bought its way out of the embarrassing prospect of its anchors, its executives and Rupert Murdoch taking the stand. But everyone knows what it is now, writes James Poniewozik.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/exposed-and-afraid-murdoch-s-goliath-faces-an-uncomfortable-truth-20230420-p5d1vm.html
Electric vehicles have for the first-time overtaken petrol-driven cars in the race up the sales charts in the medium-sized car category. Mike Foley reports that internal combustion engines still dominate passenger vehicle sales in all other categories, but three out of five new medium-sized cars sold in Australia in the first quarter of the year were powered by electric batteries, according to new figures from the Australian Automobile Association.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/first-past-the-post-evs-race-to-front-in-sales-of-medium-sized-cars-20230420-p5d1yj.html
Green energy is a bigger opportunity for Australia than the resources boom. Let’s not waste it, urges Rod Sims.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/21/green-energy-is-a-bigger-opportunity-for-australia-than-the-resources-boom-lets-not-waste-it
Origin Energy will build a $600m, 460 megawatt battery at Eraring that’s capable of powering 60,000 homes for two hours, as debate continues about whether the NSW government should intervene to keep the coal-fired power station at the site operating after 2025.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/renewable-energy-economy/origin-to-build-600m-battery-at-eraring-in-time-for-coal-shutdown/news-story/090802e2b901e81720e95b5a37afd209?amp
The Victorian government has already spent $1 billion on initial construction work, but has now written to the Commonwealth requesting a years-long pause on $4 billion of federal funding for the airport link.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mps-blindsided-by-andrews-government-request-to-delay-airport-rail-20230419-p5d1pp.html
Inconsistencies among our mental health commissions are hurting the well-being of Australians and making it difficult to achieve necessary reform, writes Simon Katterl.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mental-health-commissions-are-a-mess-and-were-suffering,17435
Want a laugh? Then read this from the ultra-strange Caleb Bond who writes, “Moderate Liberals are what got the party into this mess” and asks if people seriously expect us to believe the Liberals are being hammered for being too right wing.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/moderate-liberals-are-what-got-the-party-into-this-mess-caleb-bond/news-story/9269ee21ea49b4de53cc534b276e389f
Chinese-owned messaging apps such as WeChat are so vulnerable to propaganda and disinformation that democratic nations such as Australia should ban them in their current form, a Senate inquiry into foreign interference through social media has heard.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/worse-than-tiktok-calls-for-wechat-to-be-banned-despite-huge-cost-20230420-p5d200.html
Adam Morton writes that emissions from Chevron’s Gorgon gas development off Western Australia have increased by more than 50%, despite it being home to the world’s largest industrial carbon capture and storage system. There has been a sharp drop in the amount of CO2 stored underground at the liquefied natural gas plant over the last three years, data released by Chevron showed.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/21/emissions-wa-gas-project-chevron-carbon-capture-system-pilbara-coast
A man has been charged by police after he allegedly made death threats against Brittany Higgins, her fiancé and her dog. David William Wonnocott, 49, was arrested by counter-terrorism detectives from Tweed Heads police station in northern NSW on Wednesday about 10am. Police said they were already investigating Wonnocott over threats of violence sent to participants of a mass gathering.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/man-charged-after-alleged-death-threats-to-brittany-higgins-and-fiance-20230420-p5d1wc.html
New South Wales will become the only state that doesn’t allow cautions for people possessing drugs after Queensland moved to mandate a three-strike system. Doctors, police and drug reform advocates are welcoming reforms, passed on Thursday night, that will see Queensland take a more progressive approach to policing the personal consumption of illegal drugs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/21/three-strikes-nsw-falls-behind-rest-of-nation-as-queensland-reforms-drug-possession-laws
Faith, tradition, and ethos are all fine things, unless you are a terrified gay 16-year-old stuck inside a venerated institution like Scots College, trying to understand how you fit into all of this, writes Hamish McDonald. He goes on to look at the knots the college is tying itself in with trying to live within the requirements of the Presbyterian church.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-first-kid-who-tried-to-shame-me-turned-out-to-be-gay-himself-20230419-p5d1mz.html
Meanwhile, a review of religious exemptions for educational institutions has been granted an extension by the federal government, prompting a call for the inquiry to include all faith-based organisations. The Australian Law Reform Commission is reviewing how federal anti-discrimination laws apply to religious schools. A final report was due in April but because of the large number of submissions, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus announced the reporting date had been extended.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/04/21/attorney-general-extends-review-religious-exemptions-schools/?breaking_live_scroll=1
Elizabeth Knight reckons Star Entertainment might be gaming the government. So precarious is Star’s liquidity, she says, that it is trying to cut a deal with two state governments to allow the payment of $200 million in fines on some kind of instalment basis – a fine now, pay later.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fine-now-pay-later-is-star-trying-to-game-the-government-20230420-p5d1z6.html
The speed and totality with which Elon Musk has ruined Twitter has been almost impressive, explains Farhad Manjoo from The New York Times.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crash-and-burn-how-elon-musk-destroyed-twitter-20230420-p5d1v3.html
The London Telegraph reveals that Russian spy ships are mapping wind farms and key communication cables off the coast of Britain as part of plans to sabotage critical infrastructure. Details of the covert “ghost ship” missions were revealed as the British government and its signals intelligence agency GCHQ warned of a surge in Russian-aligned hackers aiming to “disrupt or destroy” energy facilities such as power stations.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/russian-ghost-ships-mapping-wind-farms-in-sabotage-plot-20230420-p5d1ud.html
Yesterday Donald Trump was rebuked by the judge in his looming civil rape trial over a request for jurors to be told that if the former president did not testify, it would be out of concern that his presence would adversely affect New York City.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/20/trump-new-york-civil-rape-trial-jurors-request
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Simon Letch
Glen Le Lievre, also with a gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1648833646227525633
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Happy birthday BK! Hope it’s a great day for you.
Thanks again for the dawn patrol for another day and another year. I don’t know how you do this day in, day out and have been doing so for many, many years.
To BK. 🙂
I see Angus Taylor doing his first of usual 10 daily interviews on the ABC
I have zero interest in monetary policy, but having digested the various potted summaries of the RBA review and listened to the Treasurer on 730, I reckon the government’s recommending some good improvements.
Increasing the transparency of board appointments and diversifying the expertise of the monetary policy side of the board are long overdue. I’m not sure whether 8 meetings per year is still too frequent, given it really does take time for their decisions to wash through the economy, but let’s see how it goes being reduced from 11 meetings per year.
Making the governor more accountable is a good thing too. No more hiding behind written announcements on interest rates, and RBA board meeting minutes released weeks after the decision has been announced.
Overall, excellent starts. Lets see if the coalition is prepared to back them.
Happy Birthday BK, but not sure how you missed the 2 articles in The Age on how the Andrews govt has tried to spin the IBAC report.
At 7am they are the top 2 articles on the Age website.
And in 2021:
NSW Man Sentenced Over Threats To Kill Q&A Staff For Supporting LGBT People
https://www.starobserver.com.au/news/nsw-man-sentenced-over-threats-to-kill-qa-staff-for-supporting-lgbt-people/206387
‘Counter Terrorism’ detectives? They should be renamed the Loose Unit unit.
At 7am they are the top 2 articles on the Age website.
_____
They weren’t at 0500. And there we two I posted on the subject yesterday.
SpaceX have updated their website re: the Starship flight test:
‘Russia is thought to be drawing up plans in the event of a full-scale war with the West.’
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/russian-ghost-ships-mapping-wind-farms-in-sabotage-plot-20230420-p5d1ud.html
Unfettered power has gone to Vladimir Putin’s head. And dribbled out his ears, it seems, if this is true.
What a bland form of words that has been used to ameliorate the fallout ( 😉 ) from the Starship blowing up.
Happy Birthday, BK, and I too thank you for your daily roundups over the years.
Thanks for the Dawn Patrol BK; may there be as many more happy returns of the anniversary of your birth as you wish.
Onya BK with many more to come.
Happy Birthday BK!
The doyen of this Blog.
Many happy returns…
Happy birthday BK and as I always say to my FIL who is the same age, “you’ll always be younger than Mick Jagger”.
Happy Birthday, BK! Thank you so much for your daily news/cartoon curating for our benefit.
Happy birthday BK, enjoy!
Happy Birthday BK and thank you again for your daily efforts.
Taylormade says:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 7:12 am
Happy Birthday BK, but not sure how you missed the 2 articles in The Age on how the Andrews govt has tried to spin the IBAC report.
At 7am they are the top 2 articles on the Age website.
————————————————–
LOL Taylormade
Happy Birthday BK
Henry @ #20 Friday, April 21st, 2023 – 7:57 am
But does he have ‘the moves like Jagger’? 😀
Q: On the basis of the Liberals’ track record on female representation, we can expect Constance will be selected for the senate vacancy.
Constance says the LNP doesnt have a gender problem in the Senate..so his appointment is all fine. I kid you not!
As for Russia developing a full scale war plan with the West, haven’t they had one of those on the shelf since 1945- or was the Cold War make believe?
Happy birthday BK; many happy returns of the day, youngster.
C@tmomma @ Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:10 am:
“Henry @ #20 Friday, April 21st, 2023 – 7:57 am
Happy birthday BK and as I always say to my FIL who is the same age, “you’ll always be younger than Mick Jagger”.
But does he have ‘the moves like Jagger’? ”
====================
Who is Mick Jagger? 😉
UK Cartoons – Happy Birthday BK edition:
Steven Camley on #DominicRaab #bullying
Ella Baron on #DominicRaab #bullying
Ben Jennings on #Coronation
Andy Davey: Undersea shenanigans from ol’ Mad Vlad #Putin He ain’t doin no fishin’! Crafty fellow
Dave Brown on #HumzaYousaf #SNP #SNPSleaze #SNPCivilWar #PoliceScotland #Scotland #ScottishIndependence #ScottishParliament #Holyrood
Matt on #DominicRaab
Christian Adams on #SuellaBraverman #CourtDelays #Eclipse #LegalSystem
Dave Brown on #RupertMurdoch #FoxNews #DominionVotingSystems #DominionvFox #FakeNews #FoxNewsLies
Patrick Blower on #inflation
Randy Bush on #FoxNewsTrial #FoxNews #FOXNewsLies #DominionvFox
Christian Adams on #RishiSunak #inflation
Holding eight RBA meetings per annum would mean about once every seven weeks, assuming we keep the two month break over Christmas. Maybe once every six weeks with a two month break over Winter as well. That seems like plenty.
Having a board of technocrats, rather than a board of mostly business people, setting interest rates, also looks like an improvement.
Morning all. Happy birthday BK! Since last time we all chipped in and turfed out some corrupt governments for you 🙂
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1649060561622114308?s=61&t=RVN-09kkuVR8UsTJPsu6rQ
There are many good videos of the Elon Musk SpaceX explosion, but this one (bottom right video) also shows the reaction of the Musk engineers…
And the last few frames have a dopey looking Elon thinking WTF!
Happy Birthday BK
..’Dawn Patrol’ is my first port of call each morning..
..thank you so much for compiling it for us lazy b*stards!!…
..have a great day..
Best wishes BK
The article on the demise of Twitter and the news of the SpaceX rocket failure today are perhaps somewhat of an interesting coincidence.
Everything Musk turns his attention to… turns to…
A classic narcissistic psychopath.
Mick Jagger turns 80 on 26 July. He shares a birthday with John Howard, who is four years older.
Don’t know whether either now moves like Jagger.
That’s my birthday too.
And Liz Truss… and perhaps more fortuitously, Jacinda Ardern.
#weatheronPB
Calm perfection rules.
Slowly nourishing my soul,
with cool gentle strokes.
minhoff
And a happy birthday to you too!
I’m an April baby too. The best people are born in April.
This story may interest people who are over 60. It may ofcourse interest others also.
A remarkable person and a remarkable story
C Radhakrishna Rao retired at the age of sixty and went to live with his daughter in America along with his grandchildren. There, at the age of 62, he became a professor of statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and at the age of 70, he became the head of the department at the University of Pennsylvania. US citizenship at the age of 75. National Medal For Science at the age of 82, a White House honor. Today, at the age of 102, he received the Nobel Prize in Statistics. In India, the government has already honored him with Padma Bhushan (1968) and Padma Vibhushan (2001). Rao says: “No one asks after retirement in India. Colleagues also respect power and not scholarship.” At the age of 102, receiving a Nobel while in good physical condition, it is probably the first example.
Best wishes BK
I suggest you save your spare $55m and don’t waste it on a ticket on Elon Musk’s SpaceX https://www.npr.org/2022/04/08/1091661900/spacex-space-station-launch-axiom#:~:text=They're%20paying%20%2455%20million,and%20accommodations%2C%20all%20meals%20included.
Although I understand nath has already..
Happy birthday BK. May you get inspiration from C Radhakrishna Rao and live long.(my post @8:41 am)
Victoria @ #37 Friday, April 21st, 2023 – 8:37 am
Except for the ones born in January. 😉
Ron De Santis is sinking like a stone. Exactly as I had expected.
He will not be president. And his governorship is looking shaky too. Lol!
It is quite likely that, once the Ukrainian counteroffensive is fully unleashed across other areas of the frontline, the Battle of Bakhmut will wind up, shifting from the news pages to the history books. Before that happens, it is worth while to see for ourselves just what impact the nine months of relentless Russian assaults upon Bakhmut have made upon that city.
This article from today’s Kyiv Post contains two short videos which graphically display that difference. The first runs for 2:15 and shows Bakhmut before the invasion; the second runs for 1:38 and shows aerial drone footage of the devastated city now.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16080
https://twitter.com/i/status/1648981803779096576
https://twitter.com/i/status/1648804416785399818
I am deeply saddened to see the difference nine months of Russian attacks have made there, and this is only deepened when I think of this loss replicated in so many other cities, towns and villages where Russian troops have come and where Russian missiles have struck.
It is easy to think of Ukraine through the lens of the war images of the past fourteen months and regard it as a just ruined wasteland. This makes it easy to relegate Ukraine to a place in our minds normally inhabited by alien landscapes of pictures from the distant past. It is important to see what specific locations in Ukraine looked like before the Russians came invading on Feb 24, to help us appreciate the enormous scale of what those Russians took from Ukrainians in something more closely approaching its full dimensions.
[#1 today]
”
sprocket_says:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:42 am
Best wishes BK
I suggest you save your spare $55m and don’t waste it on a ticket on Elon Musk’s SpaceX https://www.npr.org/2022/04/08/1091661900/spacex-space-station-launch-axiom#:~:text=They're%20paying%20%2455%20million,and%20accommodations%2C%20all%20meals%20included.
Although I understand nath has already..
”
I know I know nath is the biggest fan but there there are others on the site, who are no less fans of Musk.
So let us be understanding of nath and others during this blasted occasion.
“We can somehow afford the stage-three tax cuts, hundreds of billions on submarines, generous capital gains tax concessions on investment properties, billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies and we can afford not to tax windfall profits. But we can’t afford to look after Australians who need our support.
We know this investment could help move people off the safety net and back into work. The recommendations from this report aren’t just socially beneficial, they make solid economic sense, too.”
Pocock shreds the looming tory austerity budget and the full range of far right choices it will represent and entrench.
C@t
Haha!
”
John Quiggin is concerned that the RBA review ignores the global failure of inflation management to prevent financial chaos.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/20/we-need-to-abandon-the-idea-of-an-all-wise-central-bank-keeping-spendthrift-governments-in-check
”
Well! As Tony Abbott said “Sh*t happens “. However, what is concerning is that it is happening quite regularly.
Happy birthday BK!
Many thanks for the Dawn Patrol, it’s a must read and particularly on days I’m too busy to read many articles it at least gives me a synopsis of the day’s news. Vale to you sir!
Meanwhile the ever arrogant Fox News’ legal woes are continuing unabated. Former employee and whistleblower Abby Grossberg has the receipts.
Ah we live in interesting times……