Capping off the week with another New South Wales Liberal preselection tangle and three fresh poll results:
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic poll): Make that four, because it seems I missed the latest Resolve Strategic federal voting intention results from the Age/Herald, which are a stinker for the Coalition: Labor is up three to 42%, the Coalition down two to 28%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. This puts Labor solidly north of 60% on two-party by my reckoning, and has caused an observable uptick for them on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as seen on the sidebar. Peter Dutton’s personal ratings take a particularly striking turn for the worse, with a six point drop in his combined very good and good rating to 26% and a ten point spike on poor and very poor to 54%, the latter encompassing an eleven point increase in very poor to 34%. Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 51-22 to 55-21, and he’s up one on approval to 56% and down two on disapproval to 29%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
• The Liberals have opened nominations for a preselection to fill the party’s vacant New South Wales Senate seat following the death of Jim Molan in January, which will be held in late May. Max Maddison of The Australian reports moderates are dividing between state party president Maria Kovacic and former Bega MP and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance. In the former’s favour is a view that the position should go to a woman, with Salesforce executive director Gisele Kapterian rated another moderate option if conservative opposition to Kovacic looks decisive. Factional lines are blurred to the extent that Kovacic has support from the centre right, while Constance is supported by Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney, a conservative who was widely identified as the favourite for the position before he announced he would not run. Constance will reportedly establish an electorate office on the South Coast if successful as a springboard for another bid for Gilmore in 2025. A late potential contender is Katherine Deves, whose conservative positions on transgender issues made national headlines during her unsuccessful run for Warringah last year. However, Deves says she would stand aside if Warren Mundine, who along with Senator Jacinta Price has been the leading Aboriginal campaigner against the Indigenous Voice, responds to conservative entreaties to throw his hat into the ring.
• The Lowy Institute has published results from its third annual Being Chinese in Australia survey, conducted online from a sample of 1200 “Australian citizens, permanent residents or long-term visa holders who self-identified as having Chinese ancestry”, between September 27 to December 10. Among its findings were that 60% expressed confidence in Anthony Albanese to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 29% for not much or none, while Peter Dutton respectively rated 25% and 56%. The sample was more favourable on this score towards Xi Jinping (42% confident, 47% not confident) and Vladimir Putin (29% and 58%) than the Australian public at large, and less favourable towards Joe Biden (34% and 55%) and Voldymyr Zelenskyy (32% and 51%). Asked the same question in relation to countries, the sample broke favourably by 75-25 for Australia, 61-40 for China, 54-46 for Taiwan, 53-47 for the United States and 51-49 for Japan.
Presumably reflecting the change of government, those rating Australia-China relations as a “critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years” fell from 51% to 37%, while concern over military conflict between the United States and China was little changed at 36%. Only 15% professed themselves very concerned about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, compared with 69% for a similar question in another survey targeting the population at large. Twenty-seven per cent said AUKUS would make Australia more safe compared with 26% for less safe, and 52% and 7% respectively for the Australian population at large. Notable changes from last year’s results were an increase in agreement that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, from 34% to 48%, and more favourable results on questions regarding whether Australia was a good place to live, or if respondents had personally been vilified because of their heritage. There was a drop in those saying Australian media reporting about China was too negative from 57% to 42%, with as many deeming if fair and balanced and 13% thinking it too positive.
• Roy Morgan has published results from an SMS survey conducted from 1181 respondents to Friday to Tuesday which found 46% saying they would vote yes to an Indigenous Voice with no at 39%, compared with 53% and 30% when it last conducted the exercise in December. The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%.
Ven @ Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:41 am:
“This story may interest people who are over 60. It may ofcourse interest others also.
A remarkable person and a remarkable story
C Radhakrishna Rao retired at the age of sixty and went to live with his daughter in America along with his grandchildren. There, at the age of 62, he became a professor of statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and at the age of 70, he became the head of the department at the University of Pennsylvania. US citizenship at the age of 75. National Medal For Science at the age of 82, a White House honor. Today, at the age of 102, he received the Nobel Prize in Statistics. In India, the government has already honored him with Padma Bhushan (1968) and Padma Vibhushan (2001). Rao says: “No one asks after retirement in India. Colleagues also respect power and not scholarship.” At the age of 102, receiving a Nobel while in good physical condition, it is probably the first example.”
====================
Ven, that is incredible! Thank you for sharing this with us. It has given me some more commitment to some personal health goals I recently made for myself at my wife’s urging. Who knows what one can accomplish while the heart’s still beating and the mind’s still ticking!
Annika Smethurst saying “Andrews is twisting the narrative, don’t listen to him” is absolute peak political irony.
The Victorian political media burned their credibility on a bonfire and can’t even admit to it even while writers like Margaret Simons have been able to point out to them that that is exactly why Andrews goes over their heads, treats them with contempt, and speaks directly to voters and voters listen to him not them.
They’re trying to turn a molehill into a mountain again here anyway, but even if they weren’t the failure to see their own failings would see the reporting get ignored again. The boys and girls who cried wolf far too many times.
Enough already
I’m optimistic that the war will end.
I’m also optimistic that Putin will exit stage left and Russia will change direction for the better.
I’m not good with timelines, as I had expected Trump and the bad actors around him would have been held to account ages ago.
But I’m hoping the war will end before the year is out.
Fingers crossed.
Happy birthday BK.
Trouble in paradise?
many happies BK. Thanks for all you do
Chalmers joins the gonga line of those who believe Australians are complete morons …
Makes you want to weep, doesn’t it?
Thanks BK
And Happy Birthday.
SpaceX explosion reminds me of a memory from Mining course at Uni – many years ago
“An explosion is a loud noise and a rapid going away of things from where they were”
Happy birthday BK. PB Town Crier of note.
Arky
100 percent. The AGE journos are hardly better than the freaks at the herald sun.
The beauty of karma is that political editor at herald sun is James Campbell (who has never had any positive thing to say about the vic govt and Dan Andrews) and his other half lost in her bid to hold the seat of Aston for the fibs. It is just delicious.
Happy birthday BK! Slightly late for Easter this year but I’ll add “and many hoppy returns!” anyway because my 4 year old would want me to!
It was revealed today that there are ongoing criminal investigations re Fox News. I wouldn’t be surprised if it relates to jan 6
@Victoria – his other half who of course had a terrible column in The Age to push Lib propaganda, until she ran for Parliament and came that historic cropper in losing the Aston byrelction yeah.
“Makes you want to weep, doesn’t it?”
No. But if his budget doesn’t provide a path for it to actually happen in public hands I will.
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:47 am
“We can somehow afford the stage-three tax cuts, hundreds of billions on submarines, generous capital gains tax concessions on investment properties, billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies and we can afford not to tax windfall profits. But we can’t afford to look after Australians who need our support.
We know this investment could help move people off the safety net and back into work. The recommendations from this report aren’t just socially beneficial, they make solid economic sense, too.”
Pocock shreds the looming tory austerity budget and the full range of far right choices it will represent and entrench.
”
A few days ago Daily Telecrap in an article wrote “Sydney is the Ghetto of rich”.
Maybe it is not just Sydney but could it be applied to other big and medium size cities?
Is it possible ALP became centre-right party because of this phenomenon? I don’t know.
However, this should be the reason why Australia should be a position to help who need our support.
If you notice latest Federal and NSW State elections, there is only a incremental improvement in the electoral position of ALP and NSW Labor after the corruption and debasement of LNP in last decade. ALP and NSW Labor should have won by a landslide like it happens in other countries but it is as if people were reluctant to give even majority let alone decent majority. What does it say?
phylactella @ #57 Friday, April 21st, 2023 – 8:57 am
Oh? A bit like the Labor party, then?
Have the best day BK.
You are an ornament to this place.
”
Unions say the appointment of former Fair Work Commission president, judge and ACTU assistant secretary Iain Ross to the board of the Reserve Bank was a better choice than an actual trade union representative.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/iain-ross-better-than-a-union-rep-on-rba-board-actu-20230420-p5d221
”
Do you see the difference now and 30 years ago when Paul Keating appointed ACTU General Secretary Bill Kelty to RBA board with out any hesitation and he did not care what opposition and media thought about it? Whereas now ALP has to really scour through former union ranks for an acceptable pick.
Arky says:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:52 am
Annika Smethurst saying “Andrews is twisting the narrative, don’t listen to him” is absolute peak political irony.
————————————-
Again it shows again those in the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units are still not getting it, the voting public have worked them out
“What does it say?”
Great post and great question, I don’t believe Australians would say they want Susan to go without meals and have to move a single light bulb around her house, but they keep voting for it, and much worse to happen.
Are the voters broken or the system or some combination of the two.
”
Billions for AUKUS submarines are not a good look in light of Welfare Report showing rising poverty. Ben Phillips reports on Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Budget conundrum.
https://michaelwest.com.au/poverty-conundrum-for-jim-chalmers-as-welfare-report-lands-budget-looms/
”
With budgets for programs like NDIS, Medicare, Pensions, AUKUS deal and S3 tax cuts will become albatross around the metaphorical neck of this country in not to distant future.
Victoriasays:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:37 am
minhoff
And a happy birthday to you too!
I’m an April baby too. The best people are born in April.
20th April 1889 !!!!!!!
Victoria @ Friday, April 21, 2023 at 8:55 am:
“Enough already
I’m optimistic that the war will end.
I’m also optimistic that Putin will exit stage left and Russia will change direction for the better.
I’m not good with timelines, as I had expected Trump and the bad actors around him would have been held to account ages ago.
But I’m hoping the war will end before the year is out.
Fingers crossed.”
========================
Victoria, on timelines for the next chapter in this war, next two this week and next for the ramp-up of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, with the full symphony from around the start of May.
Fingers crossed it all goes well for the defenders, as a lot is riding on it. Sections of the population in the West may be getting tired of this Russian invasion, but that is nothing compared to the ongoing distress Ukrainians are experiencing from playing unwilling hosts to the brutally destructive invaders sent there by Moscow. 😡
I, too, fervently hope for reform within Russia. Ukraine and Russia are going to be neighbours for as long as their common tectonic plate remains as it is. They need to be able to get along. To date, Russia has done everything it can to completely destroy every basis for trust in them as a neighbour it is safe to live beside. It is imperative they turn this ship around 180°.
It is not looking promising for this right now, with the rapid descent into military dictatorship being driven by the Kremlin. But Hamish de Bretton-Gordon and Dominic Nicholls on the podcast “Ukraine: The Latest” were arguing yesterday that such moves by a regime tend to leave them very vulnerable in the event of military defeat, and that the collapse of such a regime after such a defeat can be very swift and very brutal – eg, Tsar Nicholas II in February 1917, and the Russian Provisional Government in November 1917. So, again – fingers crossed for Ukraine to inflict a comprehensive military defeat upon the Russian invading force!
[#2 today]
”
Origin Energy will build a $600m, 460 megawatt battery at Eraring that’s capable of powering 60,000 homes for two hours, as debate continues about whether the NSW government should intervene to keep the coal-fired power station at the site operating after 2025.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/renewable-energy-economy/origin-to-build-600m-battery-at-eraring-in-time-for-coal-shutdown/news-story/090802e2b901e81720e95b5a37afd209?amp
”
NSW Labor government re-election is dependent upon how it manages Energy transition from Fossil fuel to Renewal energy and how it manages wages of essential government workers in next 4 years.
Want to know where this “superpower” claptrap is going …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/21/green-energy-is-a-bigger-opportunity-for-australia-than-the-resources-boom-lets-not-waste-it
I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing articles that suggest it’s ok if we don’t meet our own emissions reductions targets, because we are a superpower that is going to save the planet. After all, the world owes us.
Oh, and I have a bridge you might be interested in.
Enjoy your day, BK!!!
April babies include QE2, who would have been 97 today.
Another April baby was a certain well- known 20th century dictator, who would have turned 134 yesterday.
The West Australian reports the WA Liberal Party’s new state director will be Simon Morgan, who achieved fame way back in 2008 when he was sacked by then Victorian premier Ted Baillieu and described as a “traitor”
His dumping as the party’s federal campaign manager for Victoria came after he was exposed as one of the authors of an anti-Baillieu blog run from party HQ in Melbourne.
Later he was caught deriding MPs and candidates in emails and was forced to withdraw as a candidate for the seat of Butler in the 2013 WA election.
The spin is a that it was all a long time ago when when he was
a silly boy and has grown up now.
But it sounds like he’s a perfect fit for the faction riven WA branch.
The US is one sick country.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/20/north-carolina-shooting-girl-parents-basketball-yard
Have a wonderful birthday BK and may you have many more of them.
Thank you so much for your dedication to producing the Dawn Patrol – it is essential reading each morning.
Thanks, and congratulations of completing your 78th orbit of the sun, BK.
You posted:
Faith, tradition, and ethos are all fine things, unless you are a terrified gay 16-year-old stuck inside a venerated institution like Scots College, trying to understand how you fit into all of this, writes Hamish McDonald. He goes on to look at the knots the college is tying itself in with trying to live within the requirements of the Presbyterian church.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-first-kid-who-tried-to-shame-me-turned-out-to-be-gay-himself-20230419-p5d1mz.html
I too went to a Presbyterial boys school in the 1960s, I had two gay teachers.(one of whom it was rumoured was sacked because of it but he did put on very risqué ‘revues’ and might have upset some of the fogeys on the school council)
I also has two classmates who were gay. We were a church school but no one got too serious about it. When I returned to teach there we had a school chaplain who was gay as well as the head teacher of Maths, again no great effort to project religious ‘values’.
I believe the religion badge 40 years latter is worn more fervently there these days and I’m trying to decide if I should email the principal to ask about the latest incidents within the church and it’s schools.
Are religious values just a marketing angle?
On those born in April, let’s not forget the Bard himself! Baptised 26 April 1564, presumed born shortly beforehand.
BK said –
Well done BK – may your odo keep clicking over for many years to come.
Thanks for all your work here. Most appreciated.
Arky
And what a lame opinion piece it was. Lol!
Ice sheets in Greenland and antarctica are melting faster than previously thought – PBS Newshour
https://youtu.be/cDmAIffgkro
”
Enough Alreadysays:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 9:39 am
On those born in April, let’s not forget the Bard himself! Baptised 26 April 1564, presumed born shortly beforehand.
”
My son was born on April 26.
“ In a rare public intervention, Mr McIver, the QLD LNP’s founding president, cautioned it was “showing the signs of losing its way.”
He said: “I base that on two facts.
One is the gloss over of losing two federal seats at the last election. They did a review but they glossed over the two-seat loss. And I think that is the canary in the coalmine.
“The other one is the collapse in the ordinary membership … I understand that it’s gone down to under 10,000 and could be as low as 8000 … that’s the information I’m getting. When I left the presidency, we had 14,500.”
Somebody gets it.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Flnp-merger-is-losing-its-way-says-bruce-mciver%2Fnews-story%2F07d84cedb2c93edbbaeb912fc4154112&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-test-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append
BK
You’ve been spinning it for 28,489.5 days
Happy Birthday
I see the Russians have now claim that they managed to bomb their own city of Belgorod. I guess it is better to admit that their own forces are incompetent than let people panic that the Ukrainians are able to start bombing their cities at will.
Ven @ #84 Friday, April 21st, 2023 – 9:48 am
Never fear. SuperPower Australia to the rescue! Any decade now!
Dog’s Brunch @9:39.
”I believe the religion badge 40 years latter is worn more fervently there these days and I’m trying to decide if I should email the principal to ask about the latest incidents within the church and it’s schools.
Are religious values just a marketing angle?”
I think it’s a matter of the Churches losing their power over the last couple of generations. People only loosely affiliated to the Church in which they were raised, for whom religious beliefs and identification were not more than a peripheral influence on their lives, have dropped away. What we have now among churchgoers is a fervent core of “true believers”, boosted somewhat by recent immigrants.
Are religious values just a marketing angle? For some right-wing politicians definitely. Exhibit A – Donald Trump. But as far as I can tell most sincerely believe. It’s in their psychology somehow. Tony Abbott is a true believer.
As for what the true believers believe and how it drives them, we seem to have two main types of Christians – the George Pell type and the Father Bob type. They were both Catholics but I think that the sort of divide goes right across Christianity and other faiths.
Have a great day BK !
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-21/scam-victim-criticises-nab-bank-for-handling-of-her-money-loss/102248230
This is another story critical of “the big four” banks. When you’re “too big to fail” you’re also too big to care. We use a small number of credit unions and small banks who on the whole work to keep us happy. It means there’s more work for us too in managing multiple smaller accounts, but it’s worked well for us.
A very happy birthday BK! You are one of the main reasons I subscribe to this site. Thank you for your contribution and long may you be well and healthy!
Smethurst is a key reason I don’t bother reading the age anymore. Not even sometimes. She’s thinking she’s a politician and her opinion matters.
Cronus: ““The other one is the collapse in the ordinary membership … I understand that it’s gone down to under 10,000 and could be as low as 8000 … that’s the information I’m getting. When I left the presidency, we had 14,500.””
0.15% of the QLD population is in the LNP. Brisbane has four times as many millionaires.
Murdoch dropped the defamation suit against Crikey.
I have no comments on their reasoning that won’t get me or WB sued for defamation, so I will just post it without comment.
“Mr Murdoch remains confident that the court would ultimately find in his favour, however he does not wish to further enable Crikey’s use of the court to litigate a case from another jurisdiction that has already been settled and facilitate a marketing campaign designed to attract subscribers and boost their profits.”
”
Steve777says:
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 10:01 am
Dog’s Brunch @9:39.
”I believe the religion badge 40 years latter is worn more fervently there these days and I’m trying to decide if I should email the principal to ask about the latest incidents within the church and it’s schools.
Are religious values just a marketing angle?”
I think it’s a matter of the Churches losing their power over the last couple of generations. People only loosely affiliated to the Church in which they were raised, for whom religious beliefs and identification were not more than a peripheral influence on their lives, have dropped away. What we have now among churchgoers is a fervent core of “true believers”, boosted somewhat by recent immigrants.
Are religious values just a marketing angle? For some right-wing politicians definitely. Exhibit A – Donald Trump. But as far as I can tell most sincerely believe. It’s in their psychology somehow. Tony Abbott is a true believer.
As for what the true believers believe and how it drives them, we seem to have two main types of Christians – the George Pell type and the Father Bob type. They were both Catholics but I think that the sort of divide goes right across Christianity and other faiths.
”
What terrfies me about some of the ‘true believers ‘ is that they know Trump is an non- believer but want him to be in power because he can hasten apocalypse and rapture.
Happy Birthday BK.
At 78 you rate great!
Murdoch case against Crikey has been dropped.
C@t, I beg to differ….the Starship launch was a triumph and got further, and achieved more than I and experts expected. It had ignition, most ever engines ignited at once, most powerful rocket ever, it cleared the tower, it went supersonic, it got to Max Q, but failed at stage seperation and was deliberately aborted as the main engines began to cut off.
I agree with you on many many things, and applaud your passions and dedication to the Labor cause, but on this don’t let your hatred of Musk embitter you to what was a triumph for humanity, and a first , albeit ultimately unsuccessful first step toward a human future in space.