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Thursday morning
As Antony Green explains, much of the Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were spent preparing declaration envelopes for votes that will be counted from today, including the first absents, which have the potential to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for Labor. So far as the seats I’m continuing to follow are concerned, significant progress was made in only three, each involving the resolution of election day and pre-poll booths. As explained below, this clarified the situation in two of them to the extent that I won’t continue providing updates henceforth, and I’m probably showing an abundance of caution in the third.
Kiama. The first batch of postals, which had previously only been reported on the primary vote, were added yesterday on two-party, and broke in Gareth Ward’s favour by 1165-732. That puts him 1367 votes ahead, with only 3000 absents, a handful of provisionals and however many postals to come — with the latter sure to continue favouring him, that settles the matter.
Miranda. After slow progress in the count previously, yesterday saw all the pre-polls added on two-party and the stragglers on the election day vote cleaned up, collectively pushing the Liberal lead from 525 to a safe-and-sound 1841.
Wollondilly. The Bowral pre-poll, which had been strong for the Liberals, was added on two-party, negating advantages to independent Judy Hannan on the newly added election day votes and reducing her lead from 1602 to 1350. The Electoral Commission has received over 4000 postal votes and should get a few hundred more, of which it has counted only 962 – given those counted broke 57-43 to Liberal, they could hope to rein in a good 500 or so. There could also be as many as 3000 absents, and if all goes well for them they could maybe scrape back another 500 there as well, since they performed strongly on them in 2019. That would still leave them short, but not by enough that I am quite willing to shut the door just yet.
Wednesday morning
Yesterday’s counting continued to take care of outstanding election day booths and reduce the number of unreported pre-polls, with no postals added anywhere that I’ve been tracking. Labor’s chances of a majority hinge on strong performances in a few place on absent votes, which won’t start being added until Thursday. Below are updates on seven of the eight seats I identified as seriously in doubt yesterday, the exception being Oatley where there was no further progress.
Holsworthy. Yesterday’s counting bore out Antony Green’s indication that this would continue to drift towards the Liberals: all the pre-polls reported their two-candidate results, for a collective Liberal advantage of 7038-6889, and the one outstanding election day booth, Menai Primary, broke 619-582 in their favour as well. Even without the addition of further postals, which will almost certainly play to their advantage, that increased their lead from 340 to 526. Labor would need a very strong result on absents to remain in the hunt here.
Kiama. Again consistent with what Antony Green was hearing, Gareth Ward stormed into the lead here after winning the Nowra pre-poll 3333-2145, and he further gained 852-680 from the one outstanding election day two-candidate booth (Bomaderry Public). He now leads by 615 after trailing yesterday by 752.
Miranda. The results caught up with my projection here after the Illawong Public election day booth finally reported (though there are still three election day booths without two-party and one without primaries), breaking 1279-818 to the Liberals and pushing their lead out from 71 to 525.
Pittwater. The Narrabeen pre-poll pushed the Liberal lead out from 377 to 664, which the outstanding postals can only widen further. That just leaves the unknown quantity of absents, of which the Electoral Commission was expecting about 3000.
Ryde. The Epping pre-poll broke 873-866 to Liberal, reducing the Labor lead from 241 to 234.
Terrigal. The Woy Woy pre-poll broke 836-683 to Liberal, amounting to a below par swing to Labor of 7.2%. My system continues to project a Labor lead, but that’s probably based on an underestimate of the number of outstanding postals. Labor’s hope remains a strong performance on absents.
Wollondilly. The Camden pre-poll broke 1022-1016 to Liberal, putting independent Judy Hannan’s lead at 1602.
Tuesday morning
Before dealing with the business at hand, you can hear more of my thoughts on the result in discussion with Ben Raue on his podast at his Tally Room website, and in an article for Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Yesterday’s counting made Labor’s win look rather less emphatic, to the extent that Antony Green – going here off “inside information” – expects them to win no more than 46 seats, placing them one short of a majority. My projections still have Labor ahead in Terrigal and Holsworthy, but the Liberals have hit the lead on the raw count in the former case and remain ahead in the latter, and Antony’s sources evidently have reason to believe they will stay there. What follows is a summary of yesterday’s progress in doubtful seats, which I’ll define here a little more tightly than I do in my results summary, starting with the aforementioned two seats and then proceeding alphabetically.
Terrigal. The Liberals went from 556 behind on the two-party count to 87 ahead after three pre-poll centres broke their way by 5969-5154 and the first postals did so by 350-208. Whereas election day votes swung 13.8% to Labor, so far pre-polls have done so by 11.5% and postals by 10.8%; further, the number of formal election day votes was down from 30,625 to 27,560. My system continues to credit Labor with a lead based on the swing from the votes that are actually in, but if it’s indeed the case that the outstanding votes underperform that, the projected lead is unlikely to hold. On the other hand, Labor performed well above par on absents in 2019 (a Liberal TPP margin of 4.3% as compared with 12.3% across the electorate as a whole), likely to number about 3000, which I would have thought held out hope for them. The Woy Woy pre-poll is still to report – Labor did 3% better there on two-party preferred in 2019 than the pre-polls that have reported so far, but it’s actually located in neighbouring Gosford and the NSWEC’s pre-election estimate was that it would handle a fairly modest 1760 votes. The problem for Labor would appear to be that the number of postals has more than doubled from the last election — another 3000 of those continuing to break nearly 63-37 to the Liberals would boost them by 750.
Holsworthy. The Liberals lead here by 0.7% on the raw two-party count, but there are a lot of pre-poll numbers still to come, and the Liberal margin on those was only 1.4% in 2019 compared with 5.7% across the electorate as a whole. Labor should also get a bit of a boost from absents if their swing is like those of votes cast within the electorate. Again though, my system could be underestimating the advantage remaining to accrue to the Liberals on postals, the first batch of which broke 943-803 in their favour.
Kiama. Labor were looking good here at the close of election night, and they still hold a seemingly handy 752 lead on the two-party count. The reason my system now thinks it’s lineball is that Gareth Ward has scored an impressive 48.6% of the primary vote out of 2192 postals, compared with his overall progress score of 38.5%, and these are yet to report on two-candidate preferred. Antony Green’s sources go further than that, saying he has it in the bag.
Miranda. With only postals added yesterday, there are still a lot of holes in the count here: two election day booths haven’t reported at all, another two have primary vote numbers only, no pre-polls have reported two-party preferred, and only one out of five of them are in on the primary vote. My system’s efforts to fill the gaps credit the Liberals with a lead of 1.0% compared with a raw 0.2% on two-party preferred. As ever, part of the equation is that the first batch of postals broke 726-505 their way.
Oatley. The Liberals’ lead here inflated from 254 to 910 yesterday with the reporting of the large Mortdale pre-poll booth, which broke 4740-4084 their way for a slightly below par swing to Labor of 5.1%. The first batch of postals broke 1329-946 to Liberal and those to come will presumably widen the gap, leaving absents as Labor’s only chance — there should be about 3000 of them, and in 2019 they broke almost evenly in a seat where the Liberals recorded a 6.9% winning margin.
Pittwater. I’m still projecting a narrow independent lead here, but the Liberals have opened up a 377 lead on the two-candidate count after winning the Pittwater pre-poll 3924-3049. They are also smashing it on postals, a factor my system struggles with when they substantially increase in number, as they have done both at this election and in Victoria. Certainly Antony Green’s sources are telling him the Liberals are home and hosed here.
Ryde. Labor’s two-party lead fell here yesterday from 412 to 241, the size of the Liberal winning margin in the large Eastwood pre-poll outweighing their losing margin in the smaller Macquarie Park pre-poll. The swing to Labor in Eastwood was a weak 3.2%. The one outstanding pre-poll and the absents both produced results in line with the overall result in 2019, but Labor would have to be worried about the thought of more than 2000 postals yet to come — the first batch swung 12.2% their way, but still broke 1052-837 to Liberal.
Wollondilly. Climate 200-backed independent Judy Hannan holds a 3.2% margin on the two-candidate count, but she has some weak booths that have so far only reported on the primary vote, which is one reason I’m only projecting her to win by 1.2%. Once again, the large number of outstanding postals may mean my system is selling them short — those counted so far have broken 437-326 their way, with a good 3000 yet to come, and the Liberals did even better on absents in 2019 than they did on postals.
Monday morning
No counting was conducted yesterday, but today we can expect to see progress on the pre-poll voting centres that are yet to report, which is the majority of them; a smaller number of election day stragglers; and the postal votes received up to Friday in seats where they were not reported on the night, of which I count 36. The Electoral Commission has pulled the two-candidate count between independent Alex Greenwich and the Liberals in the seat of Sydney, having determined that Labor rather than the Liberals will finish second. A new count will be conducted, but I’m not clear when the results will be published – clearly it’s academic because Greenwich has easily been re-elected. I have cleared a blockage that was preventing my results system from calling Newcastle for Labor, for whom it is now calling a definite 45 seats.
Sunday morning
My ever cautious results system* is currently giving away 44 seats to Labor, placing it three short of a confirmed majority, but leading in another seven. So the likeliest outcome is that the incoming government will indeed hold a majority. I spent the evening as part of a six-member decision desk at the Nine Network calling seats the hard way, and by the close of business we had it down to nine in doubt: the Labor-versus-Coalition contests of Winston Hills, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Miranda and Oatley; Willoughby, Wollondilly and Pittwater, which are Liberal-held seats that might go independent; and Kiama, where ex-Liberal independent Gareth Ward effortlessly saw off his Liberal opponent as expected, but might fall foul of the swing to Labor. Immediately before it turned off booth matching and switched to raw results, the ABC was calling Winston Hills for the Liberals, but concurred with my system in not yet calling Ryde for Labor, Drummoyne for the Liberals or Balmain for the Greens.
The situation in the Legislative Council is always obscure on the night, with only a third of enrolled voters’ first preference votes counted, all of which are above-the-line votes. For what it’s worth though, Labor is currently clear of eight quotas, the Coalition six, the Greens two and One Nation one. Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers also look to be doing well enough to each win one of the four remaining seats, with the final seat perhaps going to the Coalition or Animal Justice. If that’s the case – and it must be stressed at this early stage that it may not be – that would result in the final seat deciding whether a broadly defined left has a majority with 22 seat out of 42, or if left and right are tied at 21 each.
* If you’re finding it of any value, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page and in the right-hand corner of the results page itself. Between the scale of an election for 93 seats and the confounding extra layer of complexity entailed by optional preferential voting, this involved a rather considerable expenditure of effort on my part, for which I am only rewarded to the extent that my kind donors see fit.
“ Andrew:
Out of curiosity.
Which faction are you from?
Which faction does Minns come from?
Which faction did Jodie come from?”
Same answer to each question comrade.
“ Rossmcg
The people that could reform the Liberal party have left.”
That’s actually untrue Fred.
The Liberal Party is an 80 year old marketing scam. The marketing scammers are still all there, but they are having some ‘branding issues’. I’m sure they’ll have it all sorted in a jiffy.
I dunno. I lot of the candidates from both sides were former or currently serving mayors or local government councillors. They’re still party loyalists not really celebrity outsiders.
>98.6
Did America lose it’s mind because of social media or fox news?
—
In 2016, Fox News was cold on Trump, so Republicans on social media went looking for and distributing literal fake news (of the ‘pope endorses Donald Trump’ type). Since that time, Fox News and its fellow travellers have supplied that ‘parallel’ narrative to preserve their ratings, although Facebook especially still has its own loons.
Huh, didn’t know this blog had its own contingent of Roman Statue Guys. Same vibe, too.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 2:21 pm
“ Andrew:
Out of curiosity.
Which faction are you from?
Which faction does Minns come from?
Which faction did Jodie come from?”
Same answer to each question comrade.
中华人民共和国
I’m going to steal that answer brother. Muchly obliged.
This is the August 10, ’22 video examination of Trump by the New York A-G, where he continually invokes the 5th but in doing so, unlike a criminal proceeding, adverse inferences can be inferred:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPaPRajzB6k
I can give some insight into the swing to Labor in Bundanoon. At the Chifley Research Centre conference I went to I met a lady who was from there and I asked her why it was that Bundanoon seemed to be booming with housing developments which I had seen from the train as I went down to Canberra. She said that was where a lot of Public Servants were retiring to from the APS.
Let’s hope your wrong Andy in ur prediction.
I love Bundanoon. Back in the day I did a heap of cycling camps in the southern highlands and our group would stay at the Bandanoon Hotel. Which had a sort of haunted ‘scooby-doo’ atmosphere to it.
Doesn’t Itza live around there?
“ Let’s hope you’re wrong Andy in ur prediction.”
Agreed. Let’s hope.
Adda at 2.03 pm
I doubt that your reasons explain why William’s model thinks Tuckerman has only a 29% chance of winning Goulburn.
Note that Dr Bonham does not regard Goulburn as a likely Labor win.
That polling day swing to Labor will be below 4.5% once Bradfordville preferences are counted. Labor’s primary vote was down slightly there.
I doubt the projection assumes other forms of votes will be similar to polling day booths. Generally, pre-polls favour the Libs by a few per cent more than polling booths. In 2019 for the district of Goulburn, the gap was 52% to Lib in polling booths across the electorate, 55% in pre-poll.
That is a fairly standard difference across many electorates. E.g. polling booth swing to Dr Holland in the Bega booths was 14.6%, compared to 9.7% in the Bega pre-poll. Or look at Jerrabomberra in Monaro: 19% swing to Steve Whan in the booth, compared to 12.8% in the pre-poll.
Look at the Crookwell results. Swing to Labor in the polling booth of 3.4% across 799 votes, but a swing to Libs of 7.7% in larger (1354) pre-poll.
Tuckerman is currently ahead by 149 votes. A fluke if Labor can catch her.
One of the broader consequences of the growth in early voting is that the booth-matching projections are not nearly as reliable as they once were. But the Tory advantage in pre-polls is a fairly consistent phenomenon.
P.S. Angus Taylor got 57% in the Goulburn pre-poll in 2022 compared to an average of about 50% in the Goulburn booths.
“Presumably she could back-fill Latham’s vacated seat.”
Latham surely won’t be dumb enough to give it to someone who is just going to turn independent immediately?
Also does Latham get to decide that anyway? Pauline will probably want to install a loyalist of her own instead.
frednk,
Andrew_Earlwood comes from the I’m Always Right Even When I’m Wrong faction.
Free Money,
I hope you made some. 🙂
I skipped between channels last night. On Sky regional free-to-air, Chris Kenny was telling the Liberals to shift to the right to gain votes. Long may he and his associates keep doing this.
Andrew
Has the composition of the Administrative Committee changed much in the last 12 years? – there seem to be a lot of the old warriors still there.
What will be Gerard Hayes reward?
”
shellbellsays:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 10:10 am
Michael Daley as AG – “A man has got to know his limitations.”
”
🙂
Latham ruled out Mihailuk filling the vacancy last year.
I think Hanson would leave the decision to the NSW Branch, she doesn’t want to provoke a repeat of Oldfieldesque One Nation NSW splittists.
Edit: And Burston with the UAP, Culleton with the Great Australia Party and Anning with the Conservative National Party. Also, the New Country Party & City Country Alliance.
Splittists!
Wallsend remains the safest seat in the state.
and to remind us of its origin suffers a significant mine subsidence event
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8135264/100-metre-sinkhole-opens-cuts-off-utilities-for-residents/
“ Andrew_Earlwood comes from the I’m Always Right Even When I’m Wrong faction.”
C@t comes from the fawning groupie faction. Any contender for the top job is suspect – and to be denounced – up until the time they become leader. Then it’s like she didn’t even say the things she was on record as saying 5 minutes ago.
Similarly if a Labor giant makes some ‘needs to be said’ – and telling – points about some of the current leadership policy positions, then they – and anyone else who agrees with them – are for the tumbrel, while she furiously knits away under the guillotine.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 2:23 pm
“ Rossmcg
The people that could reform the Liberal party have left.”
That’s actually untrue Fred.
The Liberal Party is an 80 year old marketing scam. The marketing scammers are still all there, but they are having some ‘branding issues’. I’m sure they’ll have it all sorted in a jiffy.
Don’t agree. There was once a pretty clear division between capital and workers in a local community. That has gone. Capital has become international, with no real local community. ON the other hand, In many cases workers have become little capitalists.
It is more than marketing, the Liberals need a base. Labor needed to recognize their base moved, and I would argue their success is based on smart people working that out, probable a large part due to the policy of getting women involved in the party.
Matt Kean has worked it out, his comment last night was something to the effect, you can’t win an election when your base is only the asset rich, but where does the party go and will he have the power to move the party there.
I don’t think the Liberal party can reform now, the religious nutters have taken over. There is no base to be had in cultural wars.
It may well be the time for the conservatives to rebrand themselves. Last time Menzies was able to do it despite being considered a failure as PM in his first term. Is Dutton the man? (The answer is no)
Oakeshott Country @ Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 4:19 pm:
“Wallsend remains the safest seat in the state.
and to remind us of its origin suffers a significant mine subsidence event”
=====================
OC, I lived the first twenty years of my life there, but only ever got to vote in the 1991 NSW election in that electorate. Our house had to be built of weatherboard because of mine subsidence.
dont understand what earlwood is getting his imformation from his selebrity candadates seems like a attack on minns friend and new upper house mp Stephin lawrence who minns pushed to get a upper house spot as a well respected barister he would be a much better aterney general then daley who should have retired plus the risignation of campese did not matter in monarow ass wan won
the former leader is retired now secord and houssos must no somthing about politics after all they were right hopefuly daley will not get a cabenit spot he is a nice guybut he has served histurns out lb cat and my self were right with our prodiction
For laughs i had a look at the comments on Sky News articles. Apparently it was all Kean’s fault, the party is too moderate, they’ll never vote liberal again if he becomes leader.
The disconnect between the vocal right-wing membership and the now dominant moderate parliamentary party needs to be sorted. With everyone in opposition, the knives will be out and all bets will be off.
i am sure mins would be very woried about our state administration being bad we only won a federal and state elecgtion under nanva and now in upper house
Bob Who? Engimatic campaign genius. It’s started.
Steve Lawrence is both a friend and colleague of mine, Newton.
You are wide of the mark.
Enough Already
I left the place after my first 17 years
There were few to no brick houses because of the threat of them disappearing.
Which street did you live in? I was in Moresby St
so the attack on bankstown cowncil failed not only did the hobile mihayliouk who has to be one of the most unlikable mps who was a mp but we won the banks town based east hills of liberals
So Matt Kean has announced he won’t be running for the leadership.
Ch10 news is saying some are throwing around Kellie Whoeversheis the new member for Vaucluse, someone who hasn’t even taken her seat in the parliament!
Kean not going to be the sacrificial lamb.
Tanya is a creature of Minns, Aaron. You should not ignore that.
Also, my feelings on the upper house situation are not a Searle v. Lawrence situation.In fact that is daft. Lawrence was a ‘country Labor’ pick, so he wasn’t competing directly against Searle anyways.
Searle’s lost factional support when the faction lost the ETU. That’s the brutal truth.
However, that’s also besides the point. Minns made it personal – because Adam supported Daley over Chris in December 2018 (even though so did caucus – including centre unity – by a large margin: Adam was at that stage perceived to be the leader of the faction in parliament, even though he came across to the faction back in 2011 at the behest of Bernie Riodan), and again because he supported Jodie over Chris in 2019 (even though the parliamentary faction also did that) and stayed loyal to her for the next 20 months.
Chris had a perfect opportunity to unite caucus by keeping Searle on the front bench, and later using his influence as leader to keep Adam on the ticket. But he did not, even though he promised to Adam, in front of Mark Lennon, Daley, Nanva and Michael Lavarch (emissary from Albo who threatened federal intervention if there was an actual contest).
Now he has a choice between an insurance company lawyer and a junior barrister with no parliamentary experience as AG. If Chris had honoured his word and didn’t exact revenge as soon as Daley pulled out of the leadership race in 2021 he could have appointed Adam (who had 1. A decade experience as a senior staffer; 2. A decade experience as a practicing barrister; and 3. A decade experience in the leadership group in parliament) as his first AG. Adam would have been able to bring all that expertise to bear as he mentored junior parliamentarians into senior ministerial portfolios over the life of what is hopefully a long term government, including Stephen. But no. Revenge was more important to Chris. This is not a good sign for ‘stable government’ going forward.
Your attacks on me are getting stale, Andrew _Earlwood. I’m listened to. You’re not. You simply seem to be a tame lapdog.
And no, I’m not up anyone in Sussex St. though, as the result in Terrigal showed. Zero campaign dollars above the minimum from head office but we won despite them. And, as one of our campaign team said last night at the victory party, ‘So now head office effing rings us up and wants to fawn all over us! They barely took our calls before the election!’
So I owe no allegiance to Sussex St at all. Unlike you who seems to have fawned your way into the room yesterday. :/
Matt Kean signing up to do the hard yards for the true believers. Oh wait…
So what’s Matt’s plan? Step back and take a break, cruising as shadow minister for something or other, until a couple of other leadership hopefuls try their hand, and crash and burn?
The next Liberal premier isn’t even in the Parliament yet.
“ Your attacks on me are getting stale, Andrew _Earlwood. I’m listened to. You’re not. You simply seem to be a tame lapdog.”
_____
You’re so stupid that you lack the self awareness to even realise that you started this with me today C@t. Why?
Just so at some stage later on in this thread you can then claim victim status, accuse me of somehow being a role model for domestic violence and then bung on a health crisis when the heat gets too much? Why?
Good to catch up again last night Aaron!. I left a little after you, at almost 40 I can’t drink like I did as an 17 year old kid at une Armidale. Woke up this afternoon at 1pm and with a bone shattering headache- the likes of which I hadn’t experienced since uni!!
Chris Minns appointing Michael Daley as Attorney General really shows the lack of respect for the guy.
Oh sorry, that’s Andrew _Earlwood’s lack of respect for him.
well labor is united unlike the liberals where perottit was at war with hawke and the sentre right with Ray williams and hawke causing trouble bassed on being a mins hief of staff spend over a decade with bowin as chief of staff is close to houssos and the unions plus formed a deal with prue car party of the twu plus haylin who will get transport and jackson from left
I have no beef with Daley C@t. You should know that if you were paying attention.
‘I started it ‘
Oh sorry for speaking before I was spoken to, Andrew_Earlwood 🙄
And all that ad hominem stuff? Is that the best you can do? Like I said, your attacks are getting stale.
You know, I was going to bring up all the times you were so sure that Chris Minns would never lead the NSW ALP to victory but I took pity on you.
Anyway I will leave you alone now. It appears you don’t like being reminded of your failures. Carry on puffing yourself up then. Those intimate conversations with Jamie Clements, who you also detested at one stage, iirc, are such fascinating reading. 🙂
Jeez. Now that the NSW State election is over, can the C@t and the R@t please give it a rest?
S.Simpson: “I am of the belief that Angus Taylor is a National at heart who is in the Liberal Party in order to drag it towards National Party positions and interests.”
I get that totally. Just yesterday I had to remind myself that he is a liberal. The amazing thing is that he’d probably be a better leader than Dutton. And that’s saying something.
But there’s a whiff about Taylor. It will not surprise me one bit to find him in front of a NACC. But maybe that will never happen and this is all in my mind.
Calling Michael Daley an ‘insurance company lawyer ‘ hardly sounds like a mark of respect for the man. I must have missed something along the way.
Why did you put your oar in and have a go at me first today, C@t? Why?
And now you’re flying off the handle. As usual. This is clearly not good for your mental health.
__
FYI, I don’t think Jaime should be rehabilitated back into the party. I think he was rightly drummed out. Me being me, I’ve told him to his face. However, he seems better suited to his new profession- and happier i think, and I don’t have anything against him personally. Always happy to chat, anyways. One of the amusing things about Jaime is that he now briefs the barrister that prosecuted him for those breaches of the electoral laws.
“ Calling Michael Daley an ‘insurance company lawyer ‘ hardly sounds like a mark of respect for the man. I must have missed something along the way.‘
____
It’s just stating a fact.
Usually what one is looking for in an AG is someone who has either (or both) extensive experience practicing law at the coal face or in law reform; combined with a requisite degree of political experience. Daley has the later, but neither of the other requisites. This is not to diss him, but as i said, just stating facts. Lawrence need a term in Parliament IMO, but he should develop into a fine AG one day.
Kean was a very successful energy minister for NSW. Like Albanese was a very successful Infrastructure and Transport minister. The renewables build out, for better or for worse, is sort of following the NSW model that was
I would expect him to be more prevalent in five years. The LNP is probably out of power for a bit. He will likely be a very capable minister in the future if it pans out that way. If the liberals are even a thing.