Click here for full NSW election results updated live.
Thursday morning
As Antony Green explains, much of the Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were spent preparing declaration envelopes for votes that will be counted from today, including the first absents, which have the potential to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for Labor. So far as the seats I’m continuing to follow are concerned, significant progress was made in only three, each involving the resolution of election day and pre-poll booths. As explained below, this clarified the situation in two of them to the extent that I won’t continue providing updates henceforth, and I’m probably showing an abundance of caution in the third.
Kiama. The first batch of postals, which had previously only been reported on the primary vote, were added yesterday on two-party, and broke in Gareth Ward’s favour by 1165-732. That puts him 1367 votes ahead, with only 3000 absents, a handful of provisionals and however many postals to come — with the latter sure to continue favouring him, that settles the matter.
Miranda. After slow progress in the count previously, yesterday saw all the pre-polls added on two-party and the stragglers on the election day vote cleaned up, collectively pushing the Liberal lead from 525 to a safe-and-sound 1841.
Wollondilly. The Bowral pre-poll, which had been strong for the Liberals, was added on two-party, negating advantages to independent Judy Hannan on the newly added election day votes and reducing her lead from 1602 to 1350. The Electoral Commission has received over 4000 postal votes and should get a few hundred more, of which it has counted only 962 – given those counted broke 57-43 to Liberal, they could hope to rein in a good 500 or so. There could also be as many as 3000 absents, and if all goes well for them they could maybe scrape back another 500 there as well, since they performed strongly on them in 2019. That would still leave them short, but not by enough that I am quite willing to shut the door just yet.
Wednesday morning
Yesterday’s counting continued to take care of outstanding election day booths and reduce the number of unreported pre-polls, with no postals added anywhere that I’ve been tracking. Labor’s chances of a majority hinge on strong performances in a few place on absent votes, which won’t start being added until Thursday. Below are updates on seven of the eight seats I identified as seriously in doubt yesterday, the exception being Oatley where there was no further progress.
Holsworthy. Yesterday’s counting bore out Antony Green’s indication that this would continue to drift towards the Liberals: all the pre-polls reported their two-candidate results, for a collective Liberal advantage of 7038-6889, and the one outstanding election day booth, Menai Primary, broke 619-582 in their favour as well. Even without the addition of further postals, which will almost certainly play to their advantage, that increased their lead from 340 to 526. Labor would need a very strong result on absents to remain in the hunt here.
Kiama. Again consistent with what Antony Green was hearing, Gareth Ward stormed into the lead here after winning the Nowra pre-poll 3333-2145, and he further gained 852-680 from the one outstanding election day two-candidate booth (Bomaderry Public). He now leads by 615 after trailing yesterday by 752.
Miranda. The results caught up with my projection here after the Illawong Public election day booth finally reported (though there are still three election day booths without two-party and one without primaries), breaking 1279-818 to the Liberals and pushing their lead out from 71 to 525.
Pittwater. The Narrabeen pre-poll pushed the Liberal lead out from 377 to 664, which the outstanding postals can only widen further. That just leaves the unknown quantity of absents, of which the Electoral Commission was expecting about 3000.
Ryde. The Epping pre-poll broke 873-866 to Liberal, reducing the Labor lead from 241 to 234.
Terrigal. The Woy Woy pre-poll broke 836-683 to Liberal, amounting to a below par swing to Labor of 7.2%. My system continues to project a Labor lead, but that’s probably based on an underestimate of the number of outstanding postals. Labor’s hope remains a strong performance on absents.
Wollondilly. The Camden pre-poll broke 1022-1016 to Liberal, putting independent Judy Hannan’s lead at 1602.
Tuesday morning
Before dealing with the business at hand, you can hear more of my thoughts on the result in discussion with Ben Raue on his podast at his Tally Room website, and in an article for Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Yesterday’s counting made Labor’s win look rather less emphatic, to the extent that Antony Green – going here off “inside information” – expects them to win no more than 46 seats, placing them one short of a majority. My projections still have Labor ahead in Terrigal and Holsworthy, but the Liberals have hit the lead on the raw count in the former case and remain ahead in the latter, and Antony’s sources evidently have reason to believe they will stay there. What follows is a summary of yesterday’s progress in doubtful seats, which I’ll define here a little more tightly than I do in my results summary, starting with the aforementioned two seats and then proceeding alphabetically.
Terrigal. The Liberals went from 556 behind on the two-party count to 87 ahead after three pre-poll centres broke their way by 5969-5154 and the first postals did so by 350-208. Whereas election day votes swung 13.8% to Labor, so far pre-polls have done so by 11.5% and postals by 10.8%; further, the number of formal election day votes was down from 30,625 to 27,560. My system continues to credit Labor with a lead based on the swing from the votes that are actually in, but if it’s indeed the case that the outstanding votes underperform that, the projected lead is unlikely to hold. On the other hand, Labor performed well above par on absents in 2019 (a Liberal TPP margin of 4.3% as compared with 12.3% across the electorate as a whole), likely to number about 3000, which I would have thought held out hope for them. The Woy Woy pre-poll is still to report – Labor did 3% better there on two-party preferred in 2019 than the pre-polls that have reported so far, but it’s actually located in neighbouring Gosford and the NSWEC’s pre-election estimate was that it would handle a fairly modest 1760 votes. The problem for Labor would appear to be that the number of postals has more than doubled from the last election — another 3000 of those continuing to break nearly 63-37 to the Liberals would boost them by 750.
Holsworthy. The Liberals lead here by 0.7% on the raw two-party count, but there are a lot of pre-poll numbers still to come, and the Liberal margin on those was only 1.4% in 2019 compared with 5.7% across the electorate as a whole. Labor should also get a bit of a boost from absents if their swing is like those of votes cast within the electorate. Again though, my system could be underestimating the advantage remaining to accrue to the Liberals on postals, the first batch of which broke 943-803 in their favour.
Kiama. Labor were looking good here at the close of election night, and they still hold a seemingly handy 752 lead on the two-party count. The reason my system now thinks it’s lineball is that Gareth Ward has scored an impressive 48.6% of the primary vote out of 2192 postals, compared with his overall progress score of 38.5%, and these are yet to report on two-candidate preferred. Antony Green’s sources go further than that, saying he has it in the bag.
Miranda. With only postals added yesterday, there are still a lot of holes in the count here: two election day booths haven’t reported at all, another two have primary vote numbers only, no pre-polls have reported two-party preferred, and only one out of five of them are in on the primary vote. My system’s efforts to fill the gaps credit the Liberals with a lead of 1.0% compared with a raw 0.2% on two-party preferred. As ever, part of the equation is that the first batch of postals broke 726-505 their way.
Oatley. The Liberals’ lead here inflated from 254 to 910 yesterday with the reporting of the large Mortdale pre-poll booth, which broke 4740-4084 their way for a slightly below par swing to Labor of 5.1%. The first batch of postals broke 1329-946 to Liberal and those to come will presumably widen the gap, leaving absents as Labor’s only chance — there should be about 3000 of them, and in 2019 they broke almost evenly in a seat where the Liberals recorded a 6.9% winning margin.
Pittwater. I’m still projecting a narrow independent lead here, but the Liberals have opened up a 377 lead on the two-candidate count after winning the Pittwater pre-poll 3924-3049. They are also smashing it on postals, a factor my system struggles with when they substantially increase in number, as they have done both at this election and in Victoria. Certainly Antony Green’s sources are telling him the Liberals are home and hosed here.
Ryde. Labor’s two-party lead fell here yesterday from 412 to 241, the size of the Liberal winning margin in the large Eastwood pre-poll outweighing their losing margin in the smaller Macquarie Park pre-poll. The swing to Labor in Eastwood was a weak 3.2%. The one outstanding pre-poll and the absents both produced results in line with the overall result in 2019, but Labor would have to be worried about the thought of more than 2000 postals yet to come — the first batch swung 12.2% their way, but still broke 1052-837 to Liberal.
Wollondilly. Climate 200-backed independent Judy Hannan holds a 3.2% margin on the two-candidate count, but she has some weak booths that have so far only reported on the primary vote, which is one reason I’m only projecting her to win by 1.2%. Once again, the large number of outstanding postals may mean my system is selling them short — those counted so far have broken 437-326 their way, with a good 3000 yet to come, and the Liberals did even better on absents in 2019 than they did on postals.
Monday morning
No counting was conducted yesterday, but today we can expect to see progress on the pre-poll voting centres that are yet to report, which is the majority of them; a smaller number of election day stragglers; and the postal votes received up to Friday in seats where they were not reported on the night, of which I count 36. The Electoral Commission has pulled the two-candidate count between independent Alex Greenwich and the Liberals in the seat of Sydney, having determined that Labor rather than the Liberals will finish second. A new count will be conducted, but I’m not clear when the results will be published – clearly it’s academic because Greenwich has easily been re-elected. I have cleared a blockage that was preventing my results system from calling Newcastle for Labor, for whom it is now calling a definite 45 seats.
Sunday morning
My ever cautious results system* is currently giving away 44 seats to Labor, placing it three short of a confirmed majority, but leading in another seven. So the likeliest outcome is that the incoming government will indeed hold a majority. I spent the evening as part of a six-member decision desk at the Nine Network calling seats the hard way, and by the close of business we had it down to nine in doubt: the Labor-versus-Coalition contests of Winston Hills, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Miranda and Oatley; Willoughby, Wollondilly and Pittwater, which are Liberal-held seats that might go independent; and Kiama, where ex-Liberal independent Gareth Ward effortlessly saw off his Liberal opponent as expected, but might fall foul of the swing to Labor. Immediately before it turned off booth matching and switched to raw results, the ABC was calling Winston Hills for the Liberals, but concurred with my system in not yet calling Ryde for Labor, Drummoyne for the Liberals or Balmain for the Greens.
The situation in the Legislative Council is always obscure on the night, with only a third of enrolled voters’ first preference votes counted, all of which are above-the-line votes. For what it’s worth though, Labor is currently clear of eight quotas, the Coalition six, the Greens two and One Nation one. Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers also look to be doing well enough to each win one of the four remaining seats, with the final seat perhaps going to the Coalition or Animal Justice. If that’s the case – and it must be stressed at this early stage that it may not be – that would result in the final seat deciding whether a broadly defined left has a majority with 22 seat out of 42, or if left and right are tied at 21 each.
* If you’re finding it of any value, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page and in the right-hand corner of the results page itself. Between the scale of an election for 93 seats and the confounding extra layer of complexity entailed by optional preferential voting, this involved a rather considerable expenditure of effort on my part, for which I am only rewarded to the extent that my kind donors see fit.
Will be interesting to see how Jeremy Buckingham of the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Greens get on in Parliament. Don’t forget that the Greens forced Buckingham out over sexual harrassment/assault allegations. The allegations were never proven and Buckingham maintains his innocence. The NSW Greens were hopelessly split at the time. The current Greens lead candidate Cate Faehrmann supported Buckingham in the fall out from the allegations, whereas Jenny Leong used parliamentary privilege to basically force him out. The dynamics will be interesting to watch, particularly as Buckingham and the Greens share many similar policy positions.
Congratulations to Chris Minns and his team also the people that beavered away working on the campaign.
Looks like a RED WAVE to me .
I am confident of my majority of 3 .
I don’t trust party jumpers personally. I don’t think Mr Buckingham will stick with the Legalise Cannabis party through his term.
It looks like the left have done well in the upper house.
Granted, this is off 33% of the count, but with with no CDP and One Nation directing not to suggest and other minor right-wing parties having a tendency to exhaust, it looks like the left will pick up 11-12 (with 10 continuing) and the right 9-10 (with 11 continuing).
The so called ‘right’ bloc is not very stable, both SFF and probably One Nation will negotiate with Labour. But if Mr Buckingham does get in, he’ll have a great deal of leverage with the government.
frednk says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 9:21 am
Why does Speers go on and on.
BK says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 9:29 am
Speers is getting all sooky now.
Sceptic says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 9:26 am
SPEERS !!!!
every week he gets worse.
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I hear ABC insider (pun intended) gossip is that not only will Speers not be there next year but neither will Insiders.
I watched it this morning but rarely do other times.
The format is outdated and tired and the guest panelists are so predictable, I can usually answer their questions before it comes out of their mouths.
I doubt even a revamp will save it.
Kelta says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 10:56 am
Looks like a RED WAVE to me .
I am confident of my majority of 3 .
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If you said that back in the 1950s you would have been labeled a communist.
Is there a difference between someone who has jumped parties and one who has been forced out?
Entirely unrelated: does anyone know what’s going on with the counts in certain districts that were showing Labor leads but now are showing to the Libs? (In particular Goulburn and Holsworthy.) I know numbers very early on are often kind of hinky and unreliable, but the jump seemed fairly large.
98.6: “I hear ABC insider (pun intended) gossip is that not only will Speers not be there next year but neither will Insiders.”
Social media (for all of its downsides) has eroded the conceit that political journalists are ‘insiders’ blessed with privileged knowledge and unique insights.
In fact, it’s increasingly clear that the opposite is true: those inside the echo chamber are incapable of original thought and way out of touch with the realities outside.
Good article, IMO.
Once migrants arrive they are aussies. They should have the freedom to feel as grateful or not about anything at all as any other aussie.
The rigors of getting here are immaterial to the above point.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-26/harmony-week-why-im-tired-of-beng-told-to-be-grateful/102123256
maybi labors success in terigle could havebe because of anger at after cowncil sacked the state governmentoficial appoitned to run it decided a masive rate rise it was sacked because the liberals claimed labor could not manage the cowncil but when senteral coastnow under nsw control is st ill the most complained about cowncil this couldhave helped in terigle which was not even a targit seat i dont think head ofice put any resourcis to winn there
im obveously excited we have karin mckeown in penrith replacing Ayres but very suprised about us posibly picking up both terigle and camden
The problem is we do need reliable news sources. Instead of providing that the CPG want to be players. They are looking for the gotcha instead of information.
Insiders would be good if they provided a decent report of the weeks going on. Perhaps a segment like media watch where they take a look at the reporters trying to be players. Pope fun at there activities.
The weird thing is that the Liberal party operatives were far more cluey to the fact that they were out of touch with the electorate than the media. The smh are particular clueless as to the extent of their power base and arrogantly believed they could, and should, set the agenda and Dom’s inner circle bought it.
But look at the results. People on existing train lines gave them a belting because the system has been a shambles for a year and a half. Why should those people care about other infrastructure when the services you rely on are at breaking point?
The second obvious problem was the wage cap. Again, funding of big infrastructure at the expense of teachers, nurses and so many other public sector workers that you rely on eventually will hit a dead end, and so it did last night.
Picking a battle over pokies, particularly when the solution was going to have such a small effect, was silly. These are reforms you embed from a position of electoral strength, not weakness, and you do them once and you do them properly.
But I doubt the media will change. They’ll wonder why Prue Carr is more popular than the middle/upper class ambitious women they spruik, not realising that the heavy Westie accent draws familiarity for a huge amount of people, and they instinctively think she’s fighting for them and not born to rule.
And for the Greens, they have put a bunch of people in that see politics as a personal endeavour. They have instituted a hierarchy where State politics is seen as a stepping stone to the Federal Senate, not an end in itself. They’re lucky not to halve their vote in the state elections when they treat people like mugs, but they’re selling a brand, and brand loyalty is a powerful thing.
Paul Thomas @ #57 Sunday, March 26th, 2023 – 11:17 am
Just guessing, but possibly now counting prepoll and/or postals? These were expected to be significantly different to the booth counts.
Speers is a very competent journalist who tries to elicit an answer. Don’t knock that.
Oliver Sutton @ #58 Sunday, March 26th, 2023 – 10:49 am
+1 plus too many journos have a stake in it. They arent reporting. They are in the game of manipulating the public – not informing them.
The media in Sydney totally read the result incorrectly, I expect it from the Daily Telegraph but the Sydney Morning Herald sunk to new lows this campaign, no better typified by the glowing pro Liberal editorial published on Friday and the slew of Dom Perrottett propoganda from Alexandra Davies.
And cashless gaming was a low impact issue this campaign, piss off Tim Costello who shamelessly exploited Troy Stoltz, a seriously ill man.
And the predictions of Minns having a tough time in Kogarah, ha ha.
Yeah, I don’t understand the dislike of Speers. He’s quite good at letting ’em dig their own hole, seems quite professional to me.
Labor will probably finish third on 1st preferences, above the Liberals, in Wagga Wagga. The Libs have a few brand issues in this part of the world.
Rapt to see a fellow KMH old boy win the gig. It’ll go a long way to repairing the damage I did to that school’s reputation in the mid-80s.
The Toorak Toff says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 11:40 am
Speers is a very competent journalist who tries to elicit an answer. Don’t knock that.
Speers tries to get the answer he wants. Do we really need to hear 5 times over, “not going to release the advice”. Wasted 5 minutes of my life. Time could have been used to cover other stuff.
Today would have been a lot more interesting if they spent time considering why the gaggle spent the last 2 weeks telling us that it was going to be close where all you had to do was look at the public polls to see it wasn’t. If they were really insiders they would have been telling us the party tracking polls are showing a bigger swing. If they are insiders why so wrong? Perhaps they could consider that instead of five minutes asking the same question and getting the same answer.
Perhaps a small session on why the public ignored the editorials, why the opinion pieces had no effect.
Why some of the swings a gynormious, why the press missed that?
I’m not complaining about the nonsense reporting from a political point of view, knowing realty might of blunted the swing.
As for the voice, why try and build a story around the bullshit coming out of the Liberals. Sure report the nonsense, but trying to justify it?
Credit where it’s due, C@t and LeftieBrawler had their fingers on the pulse regarding Terrigal and South Coast.
The late count will be a roller coaster this weekend, with OPV muddying the waters.
To keep mixing the OPV metaphor, William’s seat data is a cracker – I especially like the preference/exhausted numbers.
One can assume seats with a large OneNation vote like Wollondilly at 11.8% and exhaustion of 47% is a correlation. Though Penrith without a ON has a whopping 53% exhaustion.
Of the many still in play seats, Ryde has preference flows so far of:
Lib 12.8
Lab 53.5
Exhausted 33.7
Which augurs well for the late count
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:10 pm
..
To keep mixing the OPV metaphor, William’s seat data is a cracker – I especially like the preference/exhausted numbers.
Yes; if you want to see what went down it is now the go to page.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 11:19 am
98.6: “I hear ABC insider (pun intended) gossip is that not only will Speers not be there next year but neither will Insiders.”
Oliver Sutton says:
Social media (for all of its downsides) has eroded the conceit that political journalists are ‘insiders’ blessed with privileged knowledge and unique insights.
98.6 says to this:
Some ‘insiders’ are more ‘insiders’ than others eg Peter Van Onselen and his leaked texts from Gladbags re Morrison being a “horrible, horrible person” and his ‘DEEP THROAT’ from the cabinet meeting which told of Morrison being rolled on religious discrimination laws.
Has anyone officially owned up to being Onselen’s DEEP THROAT ?
Oliver Sutton says:
In fact, it’s increasingly clear that the opposite is true: those inside the echo chamber are incapable of original thought and way out of touch with the realities outside.
98.6 says to this:
All the Labor wins in the last couple of years highlight this fact, when almost every media outlet were so out of touch with realities outside and incapable of original thought or were scared to view their original thoughts for fear of losing their job.
98.6 says:
Thank god for giving us the internet and social media where everyone can have their say.
No longer is it the privilege of a few in newspapers or TV who can have their say, quite often wrongly reported or simply lied about.
Now, you, me and billions of others can also rant and rave about anything just like the MSM and perhaps get more attention and indeed respect.
Now that’s what I call Power to the People.
98.6
The format is outdated and tired and the guest panelists are so predictable, I can usually answer their questions before it comes out of their mouths.
This accurate critique could equally apply to another ABC warhorse QandA. It too may have one hoof in the knackery.
It has been many a moon since I have watched Insiders.
98.6
Did America lose it’s mind because of social media or fox news?
98.6 , the nuns at my school told us to look out for the commies in Indonesia as they were
about to invade Australia and enslave us all, but by the time i left school in the mid 70’s
there were very few nuns left.
I have been to China so yes they would call me a hard left commie.
To the cookers i say , TUFF TITTIES.
Guardian
After the New South Wales election, Labor now holds 346 lower house seats federally and at a state level, while the LNP hold just 198.
Speers persisted on the Solicitor-General point because Dutton is using it to sow doubts. Best to clear the air.
The Sydney Morning Herald limps into next week like a rejected, wounded puppy. Will be interesting how they try to spin the voters rejection of poker machine reform as a serious election issue.
Aaron newton @11.27,
Very perceptive comment about Terrigal. I’ll pass on some scrutineer goss. An obviously former Liberal voter went to the trouble of penning a letter to Liberal MP for Terrigal, Adam Crouch. Then putting it into the ballot box. It said, wtte, I am not voting for you and voting informal today because you got rid of our democratically elected Council and put in an Administrator to do the State government’s dirty work and put up our rates. So that was the level of anger out there bubbling under the surface of the Terrigal result.
Frednk says this re Insiders:
Today would have been a lot more interesting if they spent time considering why the gaggle spent the last 2 weeks telling us that it was going to be close where all you had to do was look at the public polls to see it wasn’t. If they were really insiders they would have been telling us the party tracking polls are showing a bigger swing. If they are insiders why so wrong? Perhaps they could consider that instead of five minutes asking the same question and getting the same answer.
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Exactly my point re Insiders. Out of touch with what people really want to know.
The whole show should have been about the NSW election.
Never mind, I’m sure Paul Barry will give it a good serve on Monday night’s Media Watch.
Word doing the rounds at the ABC is that Media Watch is to be expanded to half an hour in a slightly different format with more ‘talking heads’ up to 4 nights a week at about 9.30 pm.
The Toorak Toff says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:25 pm
Speers persisted on the Solicitor-General point because Dutton is using it to sow doubts. Best to clear the air.
Ya, and once that is done, what is the next round of bullshit? Best to let Dutton carry on with that crap for 6 months than release it at the last minute to sink his sorry ass.
98.6 says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:34 pm
…
Never mind, I’m sure Paul Barry will give it a good serve on Monday night’s Media Watch.
Word doing the rounds at the ABC is that Media Watch is to be expanded to half an hour in a slightly different format with more ‘talking heads’ up to 4 nights a week at about 9.30 pm.
And then perhaps one on Sunday to deal with the ill informed, miss information coming from the CPG and their pathetic attempts to set irrelevant agendas. How many transgenders play sport? A national issue? Give me a break.
sprocket_ @ Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:10 pm
I mentioned late last night that the hot take from counting the votes on the night was that it was striking that Greens voters were preferencing much more than non-major Right wing voters. Shall be interesting to see if this carries through to postals.
My question is whether the advertising to just vote 1 might have been an own goal.
Minns fantastic victory despite the best efforts of many in his own party to stop and curtail his leadership. Fantastic campaign and leadership by Chris.
I am of the belief that Angus Taylor is a National at heart who is in the Liberal Party in order to drag it towards National Party positions and interests.
frednk says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:17 pm
98.6
Did America lose it’s mind because of social media or fox news?
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Good question without notice !
Social media is FREE to billions of people. Americans, Russians, Labor, Liberals, Communists, lawyers, catholics and idiots etc etc etc. Free to read and free to post comment.
Fox news is a SUBSCRIPTION channel where millions of Americans pay lots of money each month to listen to liars as has been proven in the last week with the revelations of Tucker Carlson’s leaked texts.
I think you will see where I’m going with this.
Liars are everywhere but do you want to pay money to people to lie to you.
Its not much different to people who pay for phone sex.
With so much Free news available on radio, TV and online, it beggars belief that people pay money to hear the news. Unless, you want to be lied to because you will be told what you want to hear.
Put channel 24 on and save. As far as paywalls are concerned type in a different news provider and almost every time you will find the same story.
So my answer is Fox News.
Dog’s Brunch at 9.38 am, Paul Thomas at 11.17 am and P1 at 11.38 am
As the real tucker-man from Yass (DB) said, there is no counting today.
Counting tomorrow will probably show the Tuckerman woman (Lib) has won Goulburn, once the Goulburn pre-poll is in. Even if the pre-polls in Bowral and Yass report strong Labor swings, Labor flopped in Goulburn.
Look at William’s results page for Goulburn and focus on the swings and percentages for the 5 Goulburn booths that have preference counts (one other booth, Goulburn W, is slightly better for Labor but not by much, while the Bradfordville booth will be like the other 5 booths on prefs).
The average Lib vote after preferences in all the Goulburn booths will be around 48%. In 2019 it was only 45.8%, and the pre-poll Lib vote was 3% better than the booth vote across the electorate (55% to 52%). See:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsw2023/goulburn2023
In 2019 the Hanson vote was 10.5% in Goulburn, while 7.2% in Yass.
What has happened in all the Goulburn booths is that there were primary swings to both the Libs and to the Shooters, whereas the Labor vote went backwards slightly. Those swings to Tuckerman and Shooters came from the Hanson voters in 2019. Labor gained few if any of their votes.
Labor did better on preferences in Goulburn than in 2019, so far up from 25.7% to 35.3%, with the Libs up from 15.3% to 20.7%. But Labor fell short because it got no primary swing at across the Goulburn booths.
The overall swing to the Shooters across the Goulburn electorate was just under 5%, but in Goulburn itself it was close to 7%. Statewide in the early Council vote, the Shooters are down 2.3% and Latham/Hanson down 1%.
The three ex-Shooters in the Assembly did well, increasing their primary vote by 10% in Barwon and Murray and 5% in Orange.
I don’t know why William’s model has the Lib win probability in Goulburn at only 29%. Based on the booth swings compared to 2019, it looks like it should be over 80%. Labor did well in the Southern Highlands, with a 15% swing in Bundanoon (home of Winnie the wombat) and 11% in Moss Vale, but that will not be enough to overcome the poor results in Goulburn.
yabba says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:23 pm
Guardian
After the New South Wales election, Labor now holds 346 lower house seats federally and at a state level, while the LNP hold just 198.
—————————
The Labor Party now hold 63.6% of seats held by the ALP and the Coalition.
(That’s before you get to the greens, teals, RWNJs and other independents.)
There is a doctoral thesis in that.
And yet I have heard multiple ‘Liberals’ carrying on about bad results for Labor because their primary vote was/is “the lowest in a century”.
There is always a cycle in politics but what we are seeing here could in fact be a complete realignments. The demise of the ALP so confidently predicted in 1996 and 2013 clearly has not happened. Over the other side of the fence, the broad church seems irrefutably divided. There are the ‘moderate’ liberals, the conservative liberals, the Agrarian socialist so long as it suits them “Nationals”, the RWNJS – AND the teals! The next 5-10 years in Australian politics is going to be an interesting time. I suspect the Teals will congeal as a block of Centrist votes – will it be a collective or a party. Moderate liberals are feeling abandoned right now. The Centre is there for the taking.
To my conservative friends who keep carrying on about Labor’s now primary vote I say this: If you add the ALP primary vote with the Greens vote it gives you a very strong indicator of the 2PP – (in recent years you still have to add a little bit to get the actual outcome). The problem for the Right is they have already double counted their primaries with the Nationals and that is where it ends. Their One Nation mates cannot be trusted to direct their preference s’properly’.
Interesting that the division of the seats across the Federal Parliament is VERY similar to the division of the seats in NSW now. Fascinating times.
Let’s see how Dutto performs in Aston this week in Victoria. 30% swing to the ALP in the NT by-election, 7% in NSW. Aston is held by 2.81%. Could history be about to be turned on its head?
Kelta says:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:20 pm
98.6 , the nuns at my school told us to look out for the commies in Indonesia as they were
about to invade Australia and enslave us all, but by the time i left school in the mid 70’s
there were very few nuns left.
I have been to China so yes they would call me a hard left commie.
To the cookers i say , TUFF TITTIES.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Yes Indonesia was the big boogie man for decades. Now its China’s second coming after their decades of fear in the 50s and 60s called the Red Peril. Russia or the Soviet Union were in the mix as well.
It all changed when Gough Whitlam was one of the first western leaders to visit China in the very early 70s which started a conga line of other world leaders visiting the country.
Hard to believe we have China as our largest trading partner as no doubt many other countries do as well.
If we hate them and fear they will invade us why do we trade with them?
What did you say ?
Money?
OK then that explains it.
S. Simpson @ #80 Sunday, March 26th, 2023 – 12:03 pm
imo, The Guardian has (mostly) been clever and careful in its recruiting to be well placed to take large slices out of Nine/fairfax SMH/Age.
As for the exhaustion of votes – I find this particularly disconcerting. I have no problem with donkey votes and have often advocated for a box ‘none of the above’ – it is a measurable protest vote. But exhaustion votes are not necessarily that. There will be people who think their vote counted where in fact it did not. It would be an interesting exercise (if it was possible) to send a letter to everyone whose vote was exhausted saying ‘thanks for voting but you wasted your time – in the end your vote went in the bin’.
While OPV is not non-compulsory voting, it could risk creating a system where only the votes of the angry/aggrieved and rusted ons get counted. The votes of the ambivalent and even the ‘mostly disinterested’ are important.
“It’s hard to admit that you’ve got an ugly baby” – so says Tory Party analyst Tony Barry reflecting on yet another Tory loss. – Aunty.
@Wranslide:
“ Minns fantastic victory despite the best efforts of many in his own party to stop and curtail his leadership. Fantastic campaign and leadership by Chris.”
_____
The Labor tribe loves a winner, there is no doubt about that.
Yes, Minns’ “Chance the Gardner” campaign was just the tonic to the rolling corrupt out of touch shit-show of an asset stripping, land clearing snorting snouter of a syndicate masquerading as a ‘Government’, so that makes me ecstatic.
That being said comrade you are conflating issues. Those “ many in his own party to stop and curtail his leadership”, well THEY would be the 65% of both caucus and the rank and file membership who said ‘no’ in a fair fight. The outcome of which Minns’s team never accepted, as they undermined the elected leadership team from day one, working hand in glove with the MSM who deplatformed Jodie – and labor – only ever running negative stories – which were usually the result of being backgrounded by Walt Secord, the Hayes brothers or the underlings of Dan Walton.
You mentioned ‘leadership’, well the hard part comes now: Governance. Part of governance requires party management. I think that based on passed performance it is likely that the trend towards celebrity and ‘outside’ party candidates who only owe personal loyalty to the leader will continue, and that everyone else will be ‘managed out’ over the next four years. It’s the Tripodi way, and when Joe was running Disputes and Credentials a decade ago, Chris – as the junior party official tasked with ‘liaising’ with Tripodi, learnt at his knee. Now is his chance to become bigger than he has ever to date demonstrated himself to be. We shall see.
Perhaps Dutton is counting on rogue elements to overthrow the elected government and install him as Fuhrer. That would be the only way for him ever to become PM.
@Dr Doolittle
The swing across polling day booths is 4.7%, which if it is consistent for other forms of voting means Labor win. That is likely the information the projection is considering most valuable.
That said, there is a lot of uncertainty precisely because the Goulburn pre-polls have yet to be counted, and that uncertainty might be underestimated. But the polling day booths in the town of Goulburn swinging against Labor doesn’t imply that the same thing will happen to pre-polls (for example, Labor voters may have disproportionately voted in pre-poll compared to 2019 in Goulburn, resulting in on-the-day votes “swinging” Liberal and pre-polls swinging Labor).
Dave from Waggasays:
Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 11:55 am
Labor will probably finish third on 1st preferences, above the Liberals, in Wagga Wagga. The Libs have a few brand issues in this part of the world.
Rapt to see a fellow KMH old boy win the gig. It’ll go a long way to repairing the damage I did to that school’s reputation in the mid-80s.
____________
I’m still smiling that we are only 150 1st preference votes behind the Nats candidate at the end of counting (yes a long way to go with no votes from the Wagga prepolls in the numbers). They surely have the worst ever corfulate and bunting cost to vote won ratio in the history of electioneering.
I’m also very happy that the booth I was handing out at came 2nd only behind the Dr Joe juggernaut. Always lovely to beat the Libs and Nats and watching their volunteers not talk to each other all day. Great coalition!
Still gives me a headache the number of mid 20’s that only take Nats cards. Obviously they really like the succession planning they were born into…or one would hope so because the alternative is just too depressing.
Talking of the Nats candidate we are speculating that ‘they’ are in the succession line for the Federal seat if the incumbent gives it away as the bunting didn’t have any reference to any election. After the candidates dire performance throughout this campaign I wonder though if it will just become landfill as that would be the better result for all?
This guy gets a few things right. Morrison to blame a lot, Liberal factions out of control. etc …
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-perrottet-should-be-persuaded-to-stay-on-as-opposition-leader-20230324-p5cv03.html
But his suggestion that Howard and Greiner be recruited to oversee the root and branch overhaul is a genuine laugh out loud moment.
Andrew:
Out of curiosity.
Which faction are you from?
Which faction does Minns come from?
Which faction did Jodie come from?
Rossmcg
The people that could reform the Liberal party have left.