Not the New South Wales election thread (open thread)

A discussion thread for anything other than the New South Wales election count.

A new post for the site’s comments thread barflies to argue the toss about whatever, the previous open thread having almost dropped off the front page. Presumably we won’t be getting much in the way of new polling this week, owing to the black hole of the New South Wales state election. There will of course be the Aston by-election on Saturday, which has gone scandalously under-discussed on this blog for the same reason – a situation that will hopefully be addressed in due course.

Adrian Beaumont update: There was actually a Resolve Voice poll published on Saturday in The Age that had Voice support at 57-43, down from 58-42 in February.  This poll was taken before Anthony Albanese announced the question wording for the referendum.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,889 comments on “Not the New South Wales election thread (open thread)”

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  1. it would not have been very popular with the party membership that latham picked mihaylouk not a loil one nation member but mihayliouk and latham is egnoring hansons callls

  2. In ’75 I served as Captain’s secretary (HMAS Watson) to Dick Rust, who, unbeknown to me at the time, suffered from kidney cancer. I’ll never forget the jubilation at the time whereas I felt as completely deflated by Kerr’s gross act of treachery. I must not reminisce.

  3. And that’s a Sky poll where they ask “Peter Dutton is a caring man who loves kittens and old Ladies… …DO you think of him favourably? 😆

  4. ““You are so certain the current ALP is spineless – and, irony of ironies, the Greens who just compromised their stated position by making a deal with Labor, are full of courage.””

    I’m assuming this is another disreputable instalment of the WWP (or some other poster) is a green fiction.

    For the record I think what the greens do and how they do it is much more cowardly than the ALP throwing away principle and running into the loving arms of the LNP to avoid a wedge. They do what is easy, they howl at the moon in a performative rage that doesn’t even impress the three quartes of their vote that is a dissapointed ALP vote rather than an affirmative Green vote.

    They have neither the plan nor then desire to be anything more. They largely waste senate seats that should go to people who want to actually take power and change the world for the better.

    One term of David Pocock has more courage and meaning than 10 terms of 10 greens.

    Anyhoo the night is young.

  5. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 5:58 pm
    nath

    One has to consider that Daniel Andrews is the greatest political warrior in colonial Victorian history.

    – Destroyed the L/NP

    – Defeated the corporate political MSM (inc. Murdoch, Stokes & Costello/Mitchell)

    – Decapitated the Labor right

    —————————————————————————–

    All things that Greens supporters would think are good.

  6. A future ALP government is just as likely to find itself at odds of the voice than a future LNP government because the assumption will be that the ALP will accept the advice or will be given advice that suits it.


  7. Enough Alreadysays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 6:53 pm
    Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted this:

    “Russian UN Security Council presidency on April 1 is a bad joke. Russia has usurped its seat; it’s waging a colonial war; its leader is a war criminal wanted by the ICC for kidnapping children. The world can’t be a safe place with Russia at UNSC #BadRussianJoke #InsecurityCouncil”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/30/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-advances-in-bakhmut-man-who-fled-after-daughters-anti-war-drawings-reportedly-arrested

    I know it’s only a rotating Presidency. I know it’s only for a month. Still, it sends an atrocious message that the UN is officially powerless to do anything about one of its own Security Council members going rogue and committing a genocidal war of aggression.

    EA
    Russia is permanent member of UN Security Council.
    Having established that it is the permanent UN Security Council members that have waged wars of aggression since WW2. You know why? They know they can Veto any UN resolutions and sanctions against them and punish those countries that voted against them.

  8. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:33 pm
    A future ALP government is just as likely to find itself at odds of the voice than a future LNP government because the assumption will be that the ALP will accept the advice or will be given advice that suits it.

    ________________________________________

    Whose assumption?

  9. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:38 pm
    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:33 pm
    A future ALP government is just as likely to find itself at odds of the voice than a future LNP government because the assumption will be that the ALP will accept the advice or will be given advice that suits it.

    ________________________________________

    Whose assumption?
    ——————————
    Many people will make the assumption that because the ALP support setting it up then its going to take what it says on board.

  10. Aaron newton @ #1851 Thursday, March 30th, 2023 – 9:18 pm

    it would not have been very popular with the party membership that latham picked mihaylouk not a loil one nation member but mihayliouk and latham is egnoring hansons callls

    It’s not called Pauline Hanson’s One Nation for nothing. She can make ’em and she can break ’em if she likes. Latham may be able to stay on for another 8 years, or may defect again to the Liberal Democrats, but he won’t be able to stand under the PHON banner if he pisses Pauline Hanson off.

  11. MB

    Many people will make the assumption that because the ALP support setting it up then its going to take what it says on board.

    ______________________________________

    I still don’t get it. Who are the “many people” and what does that comment mean?

  12. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:47 pm
    MB

    Many people will make the assumption that because the ALP support setting it up then its going to take what it says on board.

    ______________________________________

    I still don’t get it. Who are the “many people” and what does that comment mean?
    ————————
    Its responding to the earlier comments about a future LNP government ignoring it and how governments will have to explain their decision to ignore the advice from the voice.

  13. TPOF: “I still don’t get it. ”

    It’s a conservative narrative that rejection of the voice is a rejection of the ALP not a rejection of indigenous Australians. It’s how they construct an internal justification of using party politics to justify their rejection of aboriginal reconciliation. It’s how they wind up on the steps of parliament shoulder to shoulder with neo-nazis.

  14. “I was worse, I bought his book, I worked on a campaign for that election, I was invited to the WA launch, I handed out HTV all day long without a break in a goddess damned liberal enclave, I think the only good thing was that I missed the after party scruitineering, the result is often locked in before one escapes in WA.

    And all that to try and make Mark Latham PM.

    It is surprising I’m not a greens supporter or member after that sh1tshow followed by the RGR farce.”

    I didn’t buy his book but similar story – my great political shame is that I not only voted for him but also handed out how to votes all day in a safe Lib seat (outside my usual area of the era, actually) and even took home a big Latham corflute as a trophy that got tossed in a house move a few years later. And yeah I didn’t scrutineer at that one either but have at many more.

    In fairness, the alternative was John Howard, and there’s a case (which I’m sticking to) that Latham 2004 wasn’t SO bad and it was his subsequent illness that turned him into this pile of human garbage.

  15. @Cronus: “No matter how good a local member he is, I don’t quite understand how the good folk of Kiama are managing to give Ward a pass on this.”

    Innocent until proven guilty. If he’s convicted they get a second bite at the cherry anyway. If he’s acquitted then they keep the guy they wanted to keep.

  16. Pisays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:54 pm
    TPOF: “I still don’t get it. ”

    It’s a conservative narrative that rejection of the voice is a rejection of the ALP not a rejection of indigenous Australians. It’s how they construct an internal justification of using party politics to justify their rejection of aboriginal reconciliation. It’s how they wind up on the steps of parliament shoulder to shoulder with neo-nazis.
    —————————
    The Greens will be one group that will demand the ALP does what the voice advises.

  17. Ahead of a visit to China with Macron, the EU President says the EU should not decouple from China, noting recent tensions and looking for the repair of those relations to the benefit of both the EU and China

    So conciliatory, as you would expect when visiting

    In International reporting of her speech ahead of the visit I can find no reference to Australia and the Australian initiative to repair the relationship from where it deteriorated to under the previous Australian government (which threatened War)

    And along comes Costello’s anti China rag – noting its history and reporting that Australia will be at War with China within 3 years (which is not what Forrest, also in China, subscribes to as he has made plain)

    IF the EU President has said what she is reported as saying by the Costello rag, her engagements in China with Macron will be of interest (noting she is a former Minister in the Merkel coalition government and of Merkel’s Centre Right Party)

    China with respond to the making of such allegations against it – as is their right

    It is also noted that the Biden initiative to compete with China remains not addressed by the EU

    China is the EU’s largest trading partner (sound familiar?)

    The visit to China by Macron (and Macron’s invitation to the EU to also be represented hence the EU President with Macron) is significant

    We will see what transpires

    Noting Macron’s problems at home!!!

    And noting Australian media has their agenda, as evidenced, so we may see little reporting

  18. Mexb: “The Greens ”

    The greens got anti-voice campaigner Lidia Thorpe into parliament and have just blocked the 10B social housing legislation which almost 40% of indigenous people utilize. If you want indigenous reconciliation, you vote for the ALP.

  19. Snappy Tomsays:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:57 am
    98.6 says:
    Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:42 am

    Snappy Tom at 9.48:
    I am predicting that the Liberal Party will win Aston only after postals, losing the on-day count. Would not be surprised if they lost outright.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    I’m saying they will lose outright !
    One in a hundred year odds have been smashed before, think Australia’s win in the America’s Cup !
    ____________

    That 9.48 prediction wasn’t my post. I refuse to ‘predict’ re Aston, lest I bring down the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing!

    I do think the Liberals are crapping themselves, however…
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Sorry, Snappy Tom, I can see now that it was Melbourne Mammoth who predicted a Liberal win in Aston after postals but would not be surprised if they lost outright.
    I’ll stick with them losing outright AND I agree with you that the Liberals are crapping themselves.
    ( sometimes these posts with multiple bludgers having their say can be a bit confusing)

  20. Boerwar @ #1792 Thursday, March 30th, 2023 – 5:47 pm

    The left needs to wise up a bit and allow electoral space for people to be successful and to be proud of it… instead of embittered whining and snarking when someone is successful and is not afraid to acknowledge it.

    Finally, we get to see a glimpse of the real Boerwar.

    I’m keeping this one.

  21. Ven at 5.36 and 5.45 pm and Snappy Tom at 6 pm

    Ven you claimed: “We can argue that Nationals retained their vote in Federal and NSW because of their expertise in pork barrelling.”

    Not accurate re NSW election. Nationals vote down 0.7% and they failed completely in their attempts to regain Barwon and Murray, with swings of 10% to those independents.

    Check the new polling booth map for Monaro on William’s results page.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/nsw2023/Results/LA.htm?s=Monaro

    Nationals remain strong only in Cooma and smaller towns in S of the electorate. There were large swings to Whan in Cooma and a nearly 16% swing in the Jindabyne pre-poll.

    All in the seat that, as Dr Bonham put it in 2019, was porking central.

    A large part of the NSW results are explained by local candidate factors.

    You are sadly inaccurate re Angus Taylor. His base is Goulburn, where there was a strong swing to the Libs. This was very different to Monaro.

    Compare the swing after preferences in Queanbeyan pre-poll of 11% to Labor across 6,500 voters with 4.9% to Libs in Goulburn across 8,000.

  22. Daniel Andrews = Labor legend! He will go down as probably the most successful and venerated Labor politician of them all. Certainly here in the Socialist People’s State of Victoria. Huzzah!

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/mar/30/jeff-sharlet-undertow-fascism-far-right-religion-trump

    I read Jeff Sharlet’s book “The Family” on one of the Religious Right cults at the heart of Republican power earlier this century; it was an excellent read, and great work, Sharlet is one of those people who can talk to nutjobs and have them thinking they are talking to one of their own and spill their honest thoughts.

    The new book on the MAGA cult sounds like a doozy. And frightening.

    “Near Eau Claire, Wisconsin, I met a nice-looking family, dad, mom, son. You would never tag them for who they were. I see a little “Let’s go Brandon” sticker – a meme that rose among the right which means “Fuck Joe Biden”. And I get to talking to them. We talked for a long time… They were always gun people, but not a lot of guns. Now they’re up to 36, now they are arming up…. Then he described, in incredibly violent detail, the punishment he thought he and others were going to give to abortion doctors. They were ready for executions. “

  24. Any half competent Government would be unlikely to come into conflict with the Voice.

    By engaging with them constructively during the policy and legislative development phase would minimse any likelihood of this.

  25. davo:

    Isn’t this an old tv show? Joke and the fat man

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/30/clive-palmer-christian-porter-300bn-lawsuit-against-australian-government

    I don’t use the phrase “traitor to his nation” lightly, but I’d say Palmer’s attempts to trouser $10,000 from every person in the country absolutely qualify. Should he dare to show his face in an election campaign again, his nose should be rubbed in this repeatedly.

    This also shows why “investor-state dispute resolution” clauses are a total crock and we should immediately withdraw from any agreement or treaty that includes them.

  26. Everyone,
    The best thing about the voice is that the government of the day can tell them to fuck off by just ignoring them. The other equal best thing of the voice is that is can yell loudly about it.

    Australia has checks and balances to a degree, but the FOI system is a great example of a system that exists and fails us. Adding more systems to create more checks on government power, even if they themselves can only make noise is still a good thing.

    Anyway, it’s about time some ALP back benchers started calling Dutton the racist he is. You can’t talk about boats for that long without being a shit of a person.

  27. In International reporting of her speech ahead of the visit I can find no reference to Australia and the Australian initiative to repair the relationship from where it deteriorated to under the previous Australian government (which threatened War)

    Judging by other reporting, the SMH have confused Australia and Lithuania. Sometime ago (pre-Ukraine war) Lithuania decided to trash-talk PRC and give some measure of recognition to Taiwan, so PRC simply deleted them from their trade ID system, effectively embargoing them. Since then they have discovered that PRC is not as interested in dealing with a country 1/500th its size as they imagined.

  28. I know I’m sticking my neck out here. I have just watched the General Milley clip posted by Sprocket at 7.07pm.

    The general gave a very graphic and accurate account of why the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a war crime. There were many parallels to what his country did in Iraq.

  29. Aston – could we see the boil over Dutton deserves?

    We seem to be having a substantial number of one in a thousand year floods lately…..

  30. Yabba
    A picture (or photo) can capture an idea better than a thousand words, or something like that… but I thought the look on Angus’s face was illustrative.
    However, I also noticed the length of Tudge’s tie. It is of Trumpian length.
    (DISCLAIMER)
    As with Trump , the length of his tie maybe has no correlation with a certain part of his anatomy…but come to think of it, is there a subconscious element to the length of a high profile male’s tie?
    Just wondering….

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