Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)

A poll that uses the exact wording to be featured on the ballot paper finds support for an Indigenous voice holding up in Western Australia.

The West Australian had a poll on Tuesday from Painted Dog Research that put the exact question to be featured on the ballot paper at the Indigenous voice referendum found a 60-40 of its WA-only respondent base coming down in favour, with sharp distinctions by age (71-29 in favour among 18-to-34, 63-37 in favour among 35-to-54 and 53-47 against among 55-plus) and gender (69-31 for yes among women compared with 51-49 among men). The poll was conducted over the weekend from a sample of 1052,

The only other poll news unrelated to Aston that I have to hang a new open thread off is the regular Roy Morgan result, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 32% and Greens 13%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday, so may have picked up static from the New South Wales election, with an unreported sample size.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

790 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)”

  1. Dog’s Brunch @ #625 Sunday, April 2nd, 2023 – 4:32 pm

    Unless the policy is an intentionally destructive and mean spirited one such as Robodebt, or a notion that might advantage supporters &/or benefactors that is developed to appeal to the wider voter bloc but only ever benefits those for whom the initial notion intended, the LNP is policy lazy. They just don’t do it.
    Dutton will not change the ‘values’ theme despite the rest of the country looking on and shaking their heads in disbelief, it is his ‘cover-story’.
    They believe that efforts to develop sensible policy would be wasted effort as it would be contrary to their fundamental obligation to their mates.
    The only hope for them is something so devastating for their opposition that it would render them unelectable; in short A Bradbury Solution.
    Labor has a lot of reasons to prevent that taking place.

    Exactly. Peter Dutton had the chance to carve a new path for the federal Coalition this morning on Insiders after the loss of Aston, but he didn’t take up that golden opportunity. Instead he came out with meaningless blather, political bromides and promised business as usual and no change of direction.

    He’s driving the Coalition off the road and up a dry, dry political gully.

  2. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 6:00 pm

    Coorey: In his first press conference as Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton said big business, with its ever-growing focus on environmental, social and governance protocols, was no longer the natural ally of the Liberal Party. After being rebuffed in its heartland inner-city seats for teal and Labor MPs at the May 2022 election, the Liberal Party’s salvation, said Dutton, lay in the suburbs and regions. “Our policies will be squarely aimed at the forgotten Australians in the suburbs across Australia,” he said with a Menzian flourish.

    Interest rates are through the roof, as are energy prices and the cost of living in general. Yet, the Liberals, who campaigned on pretty much nothing else, were smoked on Saturday night. They are the ones fast becoming the forgotten Australians. Do not underestimate the impact of voter discontent with Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell who did not live in the seat and was destroyed by Labor’s ground and social media campaign as the barrister from Brunswick.

    The 15 per cent of voters of Chinese origin also plumped for Labor, demonstrating the federal Coalition has not healed that rift either. Nonetheless, the loss of Aston leaves the Liberals holding just 14 of the 79 seats which the Australian Electoral Commission classifies as urban, according to pollster Kos Samaras of the Redbridge group.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-s-suburban-dream-becomes-a-liberal-nightmare-20230402-p5cxdz
    ____________

    Let’s be clear: Dutton declared the by-election would be a test for both Albo and himself.

    Dutton lost – only the second time a govt has won an opposition’s seat in a by-election in the history of federation.

    But Coorey credits Dutton with not a Menzian “quote”, but a “flourish”.

    Thus Coorey earns his Ph.D in turd-polishing.

    Nothing to do with journalism.

  3. C@t
    Over here in WA we’ve seen a few people emerge from the smoking ruin of an election loss vowing to rebuild the liberal party
    Years later they have disappeared and the wrecking crew are still in charge
    Dutton has no chance

  4. More ‘careless smoking’ by those carcinogenic Russian occupiers:

    “Explosions are heard in the Russia-occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as reported by city mayor Ivan Fedorov.

    Fedorov: “An explosive Sunday [2 April] for the occupiers in Melitopol. Explosions rock the city. We are trying to find out what’s under fire this time.”

    Details: In a subsequent post, Fedorov added that “something explodes in the locomotive depot” and that residents see black smoke.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/2/7396070/

    But it is worth remembering that, for every Russian occupier killed in a Ukrainian city where they don’t belong, there have been many Ukrainian civilians killed in their own cities where they have every right to live and go about their business. I think there is still a lot more ‘careless smoking’ to happen among Russian occupiers and collaborators before the moral ledger is even close to being squared up …

    Слава Україні! Героям слава!

  5. Dog’s Brunch @ #738 Sunday, April 2nd, 2023 – 4:32 pm

    Unless the policy is an intentionally destructive and mean spirited one such as Robodebt, or a notion that might advantage supporters &/or benefactors that is developed to appeal to the wider voter bloc but only ever benefits those for whom the initial notion intended, the LNP is policy lazy. They just don’t do it.

    All true.

    So what does it say about the ALP that they have adopted the COALition policies on climate, defence, tax, asylum seekers, biodiversity etc etc.

  6. There are Trans allies in the Liberal party…. they believe that Trans women are real women and belong in the kitchen with the others.

  7. The Armed Forces of Ukraine has given this update on the fighting in Donetsk Oblast, about half of which is currently temporarily occupied by Moscow’s invading forces:

    “Ukraine’s military has pushed the Russian troops back from “several positions” in the direction of Donetsk, according to Colonel Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military defending the south of Donetsk Oblast.

    The Ukrainian forces “are now busy equipping these positions for defensive combat operations,” Dmytrashkivskyi said on the national television, as quoted by Liga.

    He added that Russian forces attacked the industrial town of Avdiivka, located just five kilometers north of Russian-occupied Donetsk, some 30 times over the last day – mostly with infantry, supported by only two tanks.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-retreat-from-several-positions-in-donetsk-oblast/

    Infantry supported by just two tanks amounts to a mass suicide mission against fortified positions such as those held by Ukraine in Avdiivka.

  8. Afternoon all. I just caught up with Peter Dutton’s interview with Speers this morning on Insiders. Not sure if that was lucky or unlucky 😉

    First I was pleased to see that Speers interrupted Dutton repeatedly. Balance?

    Second there were some real clangers in Dutton’s comments.

    He said Labor had run a very negative campaign; Dan Andrews was “brutal”. How? The Labor ads pointed out that a vote for Campbell was a vote for Dutton. There was no denigration of Dutton or Campbell. Labor pointed out that Dutton says “No” a lot. That is a fact, not a smear. No mention of his huge family trust or possible conflicts of interest.

    Then, if reminding voters that Dutton is LOTO is “brutal”, is that because Dutton is deeply unpopular? How can the result be anything other than a reflection on Dutton, when the Labor campaign, acknowledged as successful by Dutton, focused on linking Campbell to Dutton?

    Finally the nonsense about the cost of climate change action never stops. Cement will not be forced from Australia. World wide it is a very localised industry because of its weight and transport costs.

    Same with claims about climate progress under the Liberals. The solar was paid for by private citizens, the batteries by states, and the hydro is over budget and still not working. They boasted about killing off the CPRS, then try to claim credit?

    These weren’t even clever lies.

  9. Socrates says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 6:46 pm

    Afternoon all. I just caught up with Peter Dutton’s interview with Speers this morning on Insiders. Not sure if that was lucky or unlucky

    First I was pleased to see that Speers interrupted Dutton repeatedly. Balance?

    Second there were some real clangers in Dutton’s comments.

    He said Labor had run a very negative campaign; Dan Andrews was “brutal”. How? The Labor ads pointed out that a vote for Campbell was a vote for Dutton. There was no denigration of Dutton or Campbell. Labor pointed out that Dutton says “No” a lot. That is a fact, not a smear. No mention of his huge family trust or possible conflicts of interest.

    Then, if reminding voters that Dutton is LOTO is “brutal”, is that because Dutton is deeply unpopular? How can the result be anything other than a reflection on Dutton, when the Labor campaign, acknowledged as successful by Dutton, focused on linking Campbell to Dutton?

    Finally the nonsense about the cost of climate change action never stops. Cement will not be forced from Australia. World wide it is a very localised industry because of its weight and transport costs.

    Same with claims about climate progress under the Liberals. The solar was paid for by private citizens, the batteries by states, and the hydro is over budget and still not working. They boasted about killing off the CPRS, then try to claim credit?

    These weren’t even clever lies.
    ____________

    I think your key problem is applying rational analysis to anything a Coalition leader – of basically any part of those parties – says.

  10. Snappy Tom

    I can only try.

    Dutton is not the primary cause of the Liberal problem. He is not the solution either.

  11. Labor primary vote greatly up, Libs down, Greens down.

    It’s almost as if Albanese’s insistence on restoring trust in the ALP, being positive and constructive and keeping promises is a successful way to operate, and the Greens spending most of their time blocking and complaining hasn’t been winning people over.

    The Greens would be advised to learn from this and rapidly come to a reasonable compromise on the housing bill rather than declare small housing help is worse than no housing help, and maybe also cut back on the negative rhetoric and focus on working positively with the government instead of doing a McKim and being Green Dutton.

  12. Lib spill??

    David Crowe …

    Peter Dutton would be gone tomorrow if the Liberal Party had a candidate who could seize the leadership and put their movement back in touch with ordinary Australians.

    But the opposition leader will keep his job, for now, because the Liberals need to be rebuilt from their foundations.

  13. Sceptic,
    I would say Simon Birmingham and other would say wrong house. But now is the time for upsets and new starts.

  14. well bermingham is aparently a moderit he would have to develop some personality if he was to bee leader they could put matt kean in as opposition leader if paul fletcher quitfletcher is not a very strong performer or bermingham with archer in shadow cabenitdutton can not winn a election one of the senaters or kean needs to switch to lower house 2 g b will not be happy but turning liberals in to the us has failed

  15. credlin was not a good chief of staff when she ran abotts ofice how ever her husband Brianlougnane was the long term liberal federal derector and ran the party in victoria a long time liberal campaign director federal director 2003 to when turnbull took over heran the federal election review along with jaine hume after election los credlin wants to become a mp

  16. Cronus says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:03 pm

    The failed Credlin Doctrine. This individual has far too much power for somebody so out of touch with the vast majority of Australians. She is shamelessly leading the party into oblivion in her uniquely unselfaware manner.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/conservatives-used-to-think-aston-was-the-liberals-future-20230402-p5cxbw
    ____________

    I’ve been disappointed at the lack of Bludging response to the Snappy Credlin Thesis:

    Peta Credlin is a Labor plant.

    Only explanation that makes sense.

    Even the famous still-shots of her looking like she’s sucked lemons at the news of a Labor victory are simply a testament to her acting skills.

  17. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 7:44 pm
    Lib spill??

    David Crowe …

    Peter Dutton would be gone tomorrow if the Liberal Party had a candidate who could seize the leadership and put their movement back in touch with ordinary Australians.

    But the opposition leader will keep his job, for now, because the Liberals need to be rebuilt from their foundations.
    ———————————————————-

    Turnbull was swept away for failing to stand up to the HRWNJs. How ironic then that Conservative Warrior Dutton might be swept away for the same reason.

    Both cowards unwilling to fight for the centrists they purport/ed to be. Both abhor/ed the culture wars but it will be shown that both fell foul of them by not standing up for what the know to be right. Both stand for nothing.

  18. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:39 pm

    No Newspoll tonight by the looks of it.
    ____________

    We have had an Aston Poll though!

  19. With the collapse of Porter Davis wreaking the damage which occurs when Companies (and particularly Building Companies) are insolvent so unable to meet their obligations as and when due, I have one question

    Was this Company able to continue trading whilst insolvent courtesy of the ridiculous and dangerous decision of the former government to allow Companies to continue to trade whilst insolvent?

    And if this was the case what about Retention’s (so Romalpa)?

    And any penalties for the Directors if they have traded a Company whilst insolvent?

    If this is the case I trust any Class Action by Creditors is directed at the Coalition Parties, Morrison and Frydenberg not the taxpayers (so Government)

    And, on another matter, Tories have dined out for a generation on “vote Labor, get Greens”, and very, very successfully for obvious reasons

  20. We do have Liberal Party recriminations and free advice though 😀

    Frustrated Liberal MPs are urging Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to move to the political centre and refresh his shadow cabinet after the Liberal Party’s stunning byelection loss in Aston.

    Several MPs laid the blame for the Aston defeat on poor campaigning and candidate selection, while others expressed alarm that the Coalition’s cost-of-living message was failing to resonate even in outer-suburban “mortgage belt” seats like Aston where repeated interest rate rises have hit voters hard.

    Outspoken Tasmanian Liberal MP Bridget Archer, one of the leading Liberal moderates in parliament, said: “I think the party needs to stop ideological dog whistling and return to centrist Liberal values.

    “You’ve got ideological culture warriors who would rather we lose than make space for a diversity of views and that’s a problem … the party is at a crossroads and needs to decide – it’s a choice between ideology and electability.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-dog-whistling-mps-call-for-dutton-to-return-liberal-party-to-centre-20230402-p5cxgg.html

  21. Malcolm has had some choice words to say as well, having found his spine after he left office:

    “Jeez Peter – just tell the truth. Victoria is a small-l liberal state and the Liberal Party egged on by the Murdoch media has moved further and further to the right.”

    Former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull

  22. Porter Davis has probably gone insolvent like the other building companies that have collapsed. They signed too many contracts to deliver houses for a certain price but then had the material and labour cost increase significantly. They try to work through it but then run out of cash. Usually the amount that breaks the camels back is not large, but if you have no cash or capital to function, you can’t function.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 9:06 pm

    We do have Liberal Party recriminations and free advice though

    Frustrated Liberal MPs are urging Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to move to the political centre and refresh his shadow cabinet after the Liberal Party’s stunning byelection loss in Aston.

    Several MPs laid the blame for the Aston defeat on poor campaigning and candidate selection, while others expressed alarm that the Coalition’s cost-of-living message was failing to resonate even in outer-suburban “mortgage belt” seats like Aston where repeated interest rate rises have hit voters hard.

    Outspoken Tasmanian Liberal MP Bridget Archer, one of the leading Liberal moderates in parliament, said: “I think the party needs to stop ideological dog whistling and return to centrist Liberal values.

    “You’ve got ideological culture warriors who would rather we lose than make space for a diversity of views and that’s a problem … the party is at a crossroads and needs to decide – it’s a choice between ideology and electability.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-dog-whistling-mps-call-for-dutton-to-return-liberal-party-to-centre-20230402-p5cxgg.html
    ____________

    Can’t remember where I posted it – 3 concurrent threads is doing my head in!

    If the Libs want to both signal and undertake change, they need to elect Bridget Archer leader and support her.

    Of course, that would also signal a self acknowledgement that “we have a problem.”

  24. In a pre-budget report outlining potential policy changes to the superannuation system, Grattan Institute researchers Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney argued forcefully that super required radical reform. “Australia’s current superannuation system is unfair and unsustainable,” the authors concluded.

    The report notes that super tax breaks currently cost $45 billion a year in foregone revenue and will soon exceed the cost of the age pension. “These tax breaks are excessively generous – extending well beyond any plausible purpose for our superannuation system to provide for income in retirement – and their costs are unsustainable,” the authors argued.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-02/superannuation-tax-breaks-grattan-institute/102171226

  25. Snappy Tom,
    In that article, Bridget Archer also demanded Dutton shake up his front bench. I think she means she should get a gig. 😉

    But there are others, like Senator Bragg, who deserve a guernsey as well.

  26. Ouch!

    Another Liberal MP who did not want to be named said the party’s woes extended beyond Victoria.

    “The depth of brand damage has not been understood by the people sitting around the shadow cabinet table,” the MP said.

    “The community has seen no change in the 10 months since the election and they’ve marked us down. It’s embarrassing out there, people don’t want to be associated with us. We still look and sound like the Morrison government.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-dog-whistling-mps-call-for-dutton-to-return-liberal-party-to-centre-20230402-p5cxgg.html

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 9:16 pm

    Snappy Tom,
    In that article, Bridget Archer also demanded Dutton shake up his front bench. I think she means she should get a gig.

    But there are others, like Senator Bragg, who deserve a guernsey as well.
    ____________

    Unless I’m mistaken, Bragg did some nasty, falsely-based attacks on industry super. He can stay in the naughty corner.

    Archer signals change because she’s crossed the floor once or twice.

  28. Snappy Tom @ #784 Sunday, April 2nd, 2023 – 9:21 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 9:16 pm

    Snappy Tom,
    In that article, Bridget Archer also demanded Dutton shake up his front bench. I think she means she should get a gig.

    But there are others, like Senator Bragg, who deserve a guernsey as well.
    ____________

    Unless I’m mistaken, Bragg did some nasty, falsely-based attacks on industry super. He can stay in the naughty corner.

    Archer signals change because she’s crossed the floor once or twice.

    At least Bragg is advocating a ‘Yes’ vote on the Referendum for the Voice.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 9:26 pm

    Snappy Tom,
    The other stuff, well, he is a Liberal.
    ____________

    Not a leader, just a Liberal.

  30. Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
    Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 33 Green 10 ON 8 others 11

    Better Prime Minister Albanese lead up 6 points to 32 (58-26)
    Popular support for the federal Coalition has plunged to its lowest level since September in the latest Newspoll as Peter Dutton faces the fallout from the Liberal Party’s historic by-election loss.

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