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Thursday morning
As Antony Green explains, much of the Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were spent preparing declaration envelopes for votes that will be counted from today, including the first absents, which have the potential to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for Labor. So far as the seats I’m continuing to follow are concerned, significant progress was made in only three, each involving the resolution of election day and pre-poll booths. As explained below, this clarified the situation in two of them to the extent that I won’t continue providing updates henceforth, and I’m probably showing an abundance of caution in the third.
Kiama. The first batch of postals, which had previously only been reported on the primary vote, were added yesterday on two-party, and broke in Gareth Ward’s favour by 1165-732. That puts him 1367 votes ahead, with only 3000 absents, a handful of provisionals and however many postals to come — with the latter sure to continue favouring him, that settles the matter.
Miranda. After slow progress in the count previously, yesterday saw all the pre-polls added on two-party and the stragglers on the election day vote cleaned up, collectively pushing the Liberal lead from 525 to a safe-and-sound 1841.
Wollondilly. The Bowral pre-poll, which had been strong for the Liberals, was added on two-party, negating advantages to independent Judy Hannan on the newly added election day votes and reducing her lead from 1602 to 1350. The Electoral Commission has received over 4000 postal votes and should get a few hundred more, of which it has counted only 962 – given those counted broke 57-43 to Liberal, they could hope to rein in a good 500 or so. There could also be as many as 3000 absents, and if all goes well for them they could maybe scrape back another 500 there as well, since they performed strongly on them in 2019. That would still leave them short, but not by enough that I am quite willing to shut the door just yet.
Wednesday morning
Yesterday’s counting continued to take care of outstanding election day booths and reduce the number of unreported pre-polls, with no postals added anywhere that I’ve been tracking. Labor’s chances of a majority hinge on strong performances in a few place on absent votes, which won’t start being added until Thursday. Below are updates on seven of the eight seats I identified as seriously in doubt yesterday, the exception being Oatley where there was no further progress.
Holsworthy. Yesterday’s counting bore out Antony Green’s indication that this would continue to drift towards the Liberals: all the pre-polls reported their two-candidate results, for a collective Liberal advantage of 7038-6889, and the one outstanding election day booth, Menai Primary, broke 619-582 in their favour as well. Even without the addition of further postals, which will almost certainly play to their advantage, that increased their lead from 340 to 526. Labor would need a very strong result on absents to remain in the hunt here.
Kiama. Again consistent with what Antony Green was hearing, Gareth Ward stormed into the lead here after winning the Nowra pre-poll 3333-2145, and he further gained 852-680 from the one outstanding election day two-candidate booth (Bomaderry Public). He now leads by 615 after trailing yesterday by 752.
Miranda. The results caught up with my projection here after the Illawong Public election day booth finally reported (though there are still three election day booths without two-party and one without primaries), breaking 1279-818 to the Liberals and pushing their lead out from 71 to 525.
Pittwater. The Narrabeen pre-poll pushed the Liberal lead out from 377 to 664, which the outstanding postals can only widen further. That just leaves the unknown quantity of absents, of which the Electoral Commission was expecting about 3000.
Ryde. The Epping pre-poll broke 873-866 to Liberal, reducing the Labor lead from 241 to 234.
Terrigal. The Woy Woy pre-poll broke 836-683 to Liberal, amounting to a below par swing to Labor of 7.2%. My system continues to project a Labor lead, but that’s probably based on an underestimate of the number of outstanding postals. Labor’s hope remains a strong performance on absents.
Wollondilly. The Camden pre-poll broke 1022-1016 to Liberal, putting independent Judy Hannan’s lead at 1602.
Tuesday morning
Before dealing with the business at hand, you can hear more of my thoughts on the result in discussion with Ben Raue on his podast at his Tally Room website, and in an article for Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Yesterday’s counting made Labor’s win look rather less emphatic, to the extent that Antony Green – going here off “inside information” – expects them to win no more than 46 seats, placing them one short of a majority. My projections still have Labor ahead in Terrigal and Holsworthy, but the Liberals have hit the lead on the raw count in the former case and remain ahead in the latter, and Antony’s sources evidently have reason to believe they will stay there. What follows is a summary of yesterday’s progress in doubtful seats, which I’ll define here a little more tightly than I do in my results summary, starting with the aforementioned two seats and then proceeding alphabetically.
Terrigal. The Liberals went from 556 behind on the two-party count to 87 ahead after three pre-poll centres broke their way by 5969-5154 and the first postals did so by 350-208. Whereas election day votes swung 13.8% to Labor, so far pre-polls have done so by 11.5% and postals by 10.8%; further, the number of formal election day votes was down from 30,625 to 27,560. My system continues to credit Labor with a lead based on the swing from the votes that are actually in, but if it’s indeed the case that the outstanding votes underperform that, the projected lead is unlikely to hold. On the other hand, Labor performed well above par on absents in 2019 (a Liberal TPP margin of 4.3% as compared with 12.3% across the electorate as a whole), likely to number about 3000, which I would have thought held out hope for them. The Woy Woy pre-poll is still to report – Labor did 3% better there on two-party preferred in 2019 than the pre-polls that have reported so far, but it’s actually located in neighbouring Gosford and the NSWEC’s pre-election estimate was that it would handle a fairly modest 1760 votes. The problem for Labor would appear to be that the number of postals has more than doubled from the last election — another 3000 of those continuing to break nearly 63-37 to the Liberals would boost them by 750.
Holsworthy. The Liberals lead here by 0.7% on the raw two-party count, but there are a lot of pre-poll numbers still to come, and the Liberal margin on those was only 1.4% in 2019 compared with 5.7% across the electorate as a whole. Labor should also get a bit of a boost from absents if their swing is like those of votes cast within the electorate. Again though, my system could be underestimating the advantage remaining to accrue to the Liberals on postals, the first batch of which broke 943-803 in their favour.
Kiama. Labor were looking good here at the close of election night, and they still hold a seemingly handy 752 lead on the two-party count. The reason my system now thinks it’s lineball is that Gareth Ward has scored an impressive 48.6% of the primary vote out of 2192 postals, compared with his overall progress score of 38.5%, and these are yet to report on two-candidate preferred. Antony Green’s sources go further than that, saying he has it in the bag.
Miranda. With only postals added yesterday, there are still a lot of holes in the count here: two election day booths haven’t reported at all, another two have primary vote numbers only, no pre-polls have reported two-party preferred, and only one out of five of them are in on the primary vote. My system’s efforts to fill the gaps credit the Liberals with a lead of 1.0% compared with a raw 0.2% on two-party preferred. As ever, part of the equation is that the first batch of postals broke 726-505 their way.
Oatley. The Liberals’ lead here inflated from 254 to 910 yesterday with the reporting of the large Mortdale pre-poll booth, which broke 4740-4084 their way for a slightly below par swing to Labor of 5.1%. The first batch of postals broke 1329-946 to Liberal and those to come will presumably widen the gap, leaving absents as Labor’s only chance — there should be about 3000 of them, and in 2019 they broke almost evenly in a seat where the Liberals recorded a 6.9% winning margin.
Pittwater. I’m still projecting a narrow independent lead here, but the Liberals have opened up a 377 lead on the two-candidate count after winning the Pittwater pre-poll 3924-3049. They are also smashing it on postals, a factor my system struggles with when they substantially increase in number, as they have done both at this election and in Victoria. Certainly Antony Green’s sources are telling him the Liberals are home and hosed here.
Ryde. Labor’s two-party lead fell here yesterday from 412 to 241, the size of the Liberal winning margin in the large Eastwood pre-poll outweighing their losing margin in the smaller Macquarie Park pre-poll. The swing to Labor in Eastwood was a weak 3.2%. The one outstanding pre-poll and the absents both produced results in line with the overall result in 2019, but Labor would have to be worried about the thought of more than 2000 postals yet to come — the first batch swung 12.2% their way, but still broke 1052-837 to Liberal.
Wollondilly. Climate 200-backed independent Judy Hannan holds a 3.2% margin on the two-candidate count, but she has some weak booths that have so far only reported on the primary vote, which is one reason I’m only projecting her to win by 1.2%. Once again, the large number of outstanding postals may mean my system is selling them short — those counted so far have broken 437-326 their way, with a good 3000 yet to come, and the Liberals did even better on absents in 2019 than they did on postals.
Monday morning
No counting was conducted yesterday, but today we can expect to see progress on the pre-poll voting centres that are yet to report, which is the majority of them; a smaller number of election day stragglers; and the postal votes received up to Friday in seats where they were not reported on the night, of which I count 36. The Electoral Commission has pulled the two-candidate count between independent Alex Greenwich and the Liberals in the seat of Sydney, having determined that Labor rather than the Liberals will finish second. A new count will be conducted, but I’m not clear when the results will be published – clearly it’s academic because Greenwich has easily been re-elected. I have cleared a blockage that was preventing my results system from calling Newcastle for Labor, for whom it is now calling a definite 45 seats.
Sunday morning
My ever cautious results system* is currently giving away 44 seats to Labor, placing it three short of a confirmed majority, but leading in another seven. So the likeliest outcome is that the incoming government will indeed hold a majority. I spent the evening as part of a six-member decision desk at the Nine Network calling seats the hard way, and by the close of business we had it down to nine in doubt: the Labor-versus-Coalition contests of Winston Hills, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Miranda and Oatley; Willoughby, Wollondilly and Pittwater, which are Liberal-held seats that might go independent; and Kiama, where ex-Liberal independent Gareth Ward effortlessly saw off his Liberal opponent as expected, but might fall foul of the swing to Labor. Immediately before it turned off booth matching and switched to raw results, the ABC was calling Winston Hills for the Liberals, but concurred with my system in not yet calling Ryde for Labor, Drummoyne for the Liberals or Balmain for the Greens.
The situation in the Legislative Council is always obscure on the night, with only a third of enrolled voters’ first preference votes counted, all of which are above-the-line votes. For what it’s worth though, Labor is currently clear of eight quotas, the Coalition six, the Greens two and One Nation one. Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers also look to be doing well enough to each win one of the four remaining seats, with the final seat perhaps going to the Coalition or Animal Justice. If that’s the case – and it must be stressed at this early stage that it may not be – that would result in the final seat deciding whether a broadly defined left has a majority with 22 seat out of 42, or if left and right are tied at 21 each.
* If you’re finding it of any value, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page and in the right-hand corner of the results page itself. Between the scale of an election for 93 seats and the confounding extra layer of complexity entailed by optional preferential voting, this involved a rather considerable expenditure of effort on my part, for which I am only rewarded to the extent that my kind donors see fit.
Shellbell, A-E and other legal minds
Can the NSW State Government make a submission to the Judge of Gareth Ward trial to expedite the case one way or the other or is interfering with justice system?
Following the death of a 26mth old at the hands of a 5 year old with a firearm, we have these stats from the Land of the Free.
So how good is party intel really?
Surely more time spent in the right seats by Perrotet would have paid off. Remember, unlike the participators on PB, Dom had overall positive ratings in most polls (much more than, say, Scomo just prior to the last federal election) in the state albeit not enough to flip undecideds who also rather liked Minns as they saw more of him.
You think that more effort in Camden, Ryde (which may yet be won), Riverstone and South Coast might well have kept them blue.
Look at Penrith which they did spend time in, still lost but kept the swing to 2.8%.
I think perhaps Labor’s targeting showed better intel? – or maybe Libs were in denial somewhat? Or kept to seats they’d need for a clear plurality or majority of seats, thinking that it didn’t matter anyway if they didn’t achieve that?
Whereas, with hindsight, it looks like they never were going to win Bega, Heathcote, Lismore or Paramatta.
Had the swing across the state been a weeny bit higher still, LNP could have lost what, as many as 10 more seats?
BTSays says:
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 7:59 pm
So how good is party intel really?
Surely more time spent in the right seats by Perrotet would have paid off. Remember, unlike the participators on PB, Dom had overall positive ratings in most polls (much more than, say, Scomo just prior to the last federal election) in the state albeit not enough to flip undecideds who also rather liked Minns as they saw more of him.
You think that more effort in Camden, Ryde (which may yet be won), Riverstone and South Coast might well have kept them blue.
Look at Penrith which they did spend time in, still lost but kept the swing to 2.8%.
I think perhaps Labor’s targeting showed better intel? – or maybe Libs were in denial somewhat? Or kept to seats they’d need for a clear plurality or majority of seats, thinking that it didn’t matter anyway if they didn’t achieve that?
Whereas, with hindsight, it looks like they never were going to win Bega, Heathcote, Lismore or Paramatta.
Had the swing across the state been a weeny bit higher still, LNP could have lost what, as many as 10 more seats?
____________
Conventional wisdom: the swing is never uniform.
This election, the swing has been insane.
Labor gets a tiny swing to win Penrith and a really good swing to maybe just miss Terrigal.
Meanwhile, in my former Lower Hunter home turf, Labor gets decent-to-major swings almost everywhere (and didn’t need them anywhere).
IIRC, Labor got some decent swings to it in safe Liberal seats.
Hard to identify a clear pattern.
Maybe Labor has basically regained the seats it should hold in a pre-2011 wipeout world, plus one or two extra to guarantee govt.
The Liberals? The electorate clearly voted AGAINST them. Enough to turf them out of govt.
Maybe the electorate is giving Labor a probationary term. In 4 years, the Libs will be defending way more marginal seats than Labor. Good performance in govt might see a strengthening of Labor’s position.
Ven
Only a party could make such an application ie Prosecutor or Ward and since expediting his trial puts someone else back in the queue – no
Maybe the electorate is giving Labor a probationary term. In 4 years, the Libs will be defending way more marginal seats than Labor. Good performance in govt might see a strengthening of Labor’s position.
I’m hoping for a Sophomore Surge too. 🙂
Labor barely scraped home in NSW in 1976, ousting a decade old tired and corrupt Coalition Government. It won won in a huge landslide in 1978 and again in 1981.
Again in 1995, Labor had a narrow win over a seven year Coalition Government and won again much more convincingly four years later in 1999.
Maybe history is repeating…
“Good performance in govt might see a strengthening of Labor’s position.”
I would rephrase that as:
If a majority of the electorate (that’s what counts) believe Labor have had a good performance in government, Labor WILL strengthen its position – inevitably.
could camden have been won maybi if liberals dumped Sidreaves who buy all acounts was a lazy mp who achieved nothing inhis single term plus he was acused of bulying and branch stacking was perottit realy that popular no where near as gladis
Aaron why no full Ministry? Factional problems I take it?
In the words of V.I.Lenin what is to be done?
Zero Postal Votes counted in Terrigal electorate today!?!
Wow. Trouble in paradise with One Nation today. Mark Latham made a homophobic tweet about Alex Greenwich so disgusting that even Pauline Hanson was outraged.
Still, damage done, he’s got an 8-year term ahead in the NSW Upper House regardless.
The Liberals held on to more seats than they really should have for two reasons: -1. Optional Preferential voting, 2. They got enough conservatives over 50s to the pre poll centres and to mail postal votes, the Tories are just better at that than Labor, always.
There’s something wrong when a political party scores 54% of the two party preferred vote but they are probably headed for minority government. I guess you could argue Labor got far too big swings in seats they were always going to retain anyway. For example, half of the 18% swing Chris Minns picked up in Kogarah would have been useful in neighbouring Oatley for example.
Crazy stat Dog’s Brunch
What chance Bob Nanva for an outside chance of a Ministry? Especially after a ripping campaign?
As for the others, I could see someone like Jenny Atchison being given a major ministry along with Mark Buttigieg. Of course, Greg Warren is a must, but outside those, perhaps including Tara from the Upper House, those would be the pick for the major ministries. It seems that it is very much open slather for the more minor ministries given the big dogs already announced and then those I mentioned above.
They should expel Latham and Ward.
Good one Bob. I, too, think elected representatives should be capable of being removed from Parliament by other Parliamentarians. In fact, if the majority of parliament members say out, then really, that should just be the way.
Excellent suggestion wranslide. Dont forget Andy the r@t’s friend Hugh McDermott.
Wranslide: considering the mediocre talent level of most in the upper house, Bob Nanva will fit in well there. Mark Latham of course is the epitome of sludge promoted far above their ability level. Remember the very capable Mick Veitch lost his spot through factionalism to two time lower house loser Cameron Murphy, another person Minns should keep well away from any cabinet or parliamentary secretary role.
Lars. Yes, Hugh was and is a given. It goes without saying for most (although strangely not Hugh).
Evan, it is an interesting comment, I guess about the LC. I just cannot see it though. The Labor heavy hitters in terms of the new Ministry will come from the upper house suggesting the talent is there. Buttigieg and Tara are certains for major spots. Then the quiet but deliberate Donnelly should get a go. The Don Farrell of NSW. Its an exciting time for the upper house. Cameron Murphy is also a must. An asset in marginals.
To paraphrase wranslide – there’s going to be so much winning people are going to say pls stop.
2PP doesn’t really mean the same thing when applied to an OPV election with high levels of non 2PP primary votes and a high exhaustion rate.
2PP in Federal elections remains a very relevant measure, because of the forced allocation of preferences.
In the circumstances, given the large number of third party candidates elected, NSW Labor has done well to win 45 (46?) seats, even with a so-called 54% 2PP.
Thats right Lars. Although, for Labor, hopefully it is not winning like the ‘famed heart and soul Terrigal machine style’. No one wins that way.
Conclusion: OPV is a dumb system. It benefits awful local members like Gareth Ward.
wranslide says:
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:05 pm
Good one Bob. I, too, think elected representatives should be capable of being removed from Parliament by other Parliamentarians. In fact, if the majority of parliament members say out, then really, that should just be the way.
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That is never going to happen.
A day is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity, so a hated MP today could be the PM or Premier of tomorrow.
Don’t laugh, I’ve seen it happen.
While I’m not doing a poll it might be interesting to know who bludgers think will win on Saturday.
Different scenario from the state election though.
1 in a hundred years odds. That’s only approx 33 elections. (Not 100)
America’s Cup only contested every 4 years. Australia won after US not beaten for 126 years.
Former member bonking his media advisor. Costing us taxpayers $600,000.
Former member part of the illegal RoboDebt scheme.
Former member’s wife divorced him due to his bonking someone else.
Former member making voters go back to the polling booth not yet 12 months from last election.
Former member kicked his naked lover out of bed in a rage. Domestic violence ?
New Liberal candidate is from the same party as the former member was with.
Only 2.8% swing needed.
Dutton on the nose everywhere.
Dutton is completely bald.
Dutton is sorry he didn’t say SORRY with Kevvie.
Albo has some hair but thin and grey.
Albo riding high in the polls.
Dutton is an a**ehole.
Albo doesn’t need the extra seat.
Dutton will be a dead man walking if he loses.
Albo couldn’t care less if he loses.
Albo will be a legend if he wins.
I’m saying Labor will win, but I don’t care if they don’t.
98.6, Dutton is being hidden from the Aston campaign, as he was hidden from the NSW election campaign.
Personal votes were important . The scandal seats of Monaro Drummoyne Miranda swung heavily to Labor. Opv should have helped Labor more alp 37% coalition 34 to 35%
Evan says:
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 11:26 pm
98.6, Dutton is being hidden from the Aston campaign, as he was hidden from the NSW election campaign.
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The Ghost Who Walks !
But he’s no Phantom !
New thread.
Aaron newton asks:
Was perottit realy that popular no where near as gladis.
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You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people, all of the time.
A popularity survey taken today would see them both relegated to the dustbin of political history.
i think ranslide is jokeing with some of his sugestions butigieg for a major ministry the guy is not inis best mates with Adam searle who minns dumped and Michael daley murphy would hardley be an aset he lost a marginal seat twice how ever ae believes we need more baristers incabenit more likely premotions will be for coughtney housssos minns would be smart not to giveaicherson will get premoated because labor dumped vietsch for a sity based barister
From my post in the old thread (yesterday 5:19 PM):
My best guess for the Upper House would be (elected 2023 and total)
– Labor 8 (15)
– Coalition 7 (15)
– Green 2 (4)
– One Nation 1 (3)
– SFF 1 (2)
– Cannabis 1 (1)
– Liberal Democrats 1 (1)
– Animals 0 (1)
That would be left-leaning and right-leaning 21-all.
Labor would normally (but not always) have the support of the Greens, Animals and Cannibas, which would get them to 21. Of course, each of these (especially the Greens) can give Labor a headache if they choose.
But even with the left on board, Labor needs one more vote.
The 15 Coalition members will oppose everything. One Nation and the Liberal Democrats will normally join them.
This leaves the two Shooters/Farmers/Fishers in the box seat.