New South Wales election live

Live commentary on the NSW election results. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

Click here for full NSW election results updated live

Live Commentary

11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.

19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.

And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.

10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.

9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.

8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.

7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.

7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.

7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.

7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.

7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.

7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.

7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.

7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.

6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results.  I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.

The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead.  Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.

From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.

ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.

There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms.  To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9.  I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week.  It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.

From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.

738 comments on “New South Wales election live”

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  1. Aaron newton says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:05 pm
    it would have been better if prue car not albanese introduced minns then again perottit had howard introduce him better if federalmps dont campaign to much for there state party so wonder what aligzandra smith will say abbout perottits terible campaign and how the cashlis gaming did not save them.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Sorry to be so blunt Aaron but “Who gives a f**k what they might say”?
    FFS who gives a shit what Alexandra Smith thinks or does.
    She and her mates are losers.

  2. Yes, the big winner is of course Chris Minns.
    The biggest losers: Bevan Shields, Alexandra Smith, Peter Costello, Ben Fordham, Ray Hadley, Tim Costello, the ABC Four Corners program, and Matt Kean.

  3. Safest seats (as projected), by 2cp margin…

    ALP (18)
    Wallsend 32.3
    Mt Druitt 25.6
    Keira 25.2
    Canterbury 24.6
    Wollongong 24.4
    Campbelltown 24.0
    Auburn 23.3
    Cessnock 23.3 vs ON
    Newcastle 23.0 * (this could end up as ALP vs Grn)
    Bankstown 22.7
    Blue Mountains 22.7
    Fairfield 22.5
    Granville 22.1
    Charlestown 21.3
    Macquarie Fields 21.0
    Port Stephens 20.8
    Maitland 20.4
    Blacktown 20.1

    Lib/Nat (3)
    Northern Tablelands 33.9
    Cootamundra 33.2
    Bathurst 23.0

    Other (3)
    Lake Macquarie 23.6
    Wagga Wagga 22.6
    Orange 22.6

    (I think I got ’em all.)

    So that’s why Labor didn’t get a landslide off ~55% of the 2pp vote – so much of it is bound up in safe seats in the Hunter / Illawarra / western Sydney. (Also add Lake Macquarie, Newtown and Balmain to that list, as they’d have a notional ALP/Lib margin about 30%.)

    A few surprises on that list. Bathurst actually swing TO the Nats by 5%, and it’s now their third safest seat. Held by Labor all through the Carr (etc) years.

    Right next door: Blue Mountains, sandwiched between Bankstown and Fairfield on the pendulum. Drive down the Great Western Hwy from Lithgow towards Sydney and the Labor vote suddenly jumps 30-40%. How are they that different?

    Port Stephens is now safer for Labor than Blacktown. Libs won it in 2007 when the Iemma govt was returned.

  4. Aqualung says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:15 pm
    Is good. Is Dom. Oh wait.
    Who’s had a few too many…
    Hehehe
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Maybe, most PBs could answer in the affirmative.
    I’ve finished my bottle of sparkling and Ms 98.6 only had half a glass with orange juice.
    A good night was held by all.
    I’ve made the most of it, as it may be a while before the next celebration.
    Congratulations to Minns and the Labor Party for providing a great night of entertainment.
    Hope I get up in time for the Insiders.
    I must admit I haven’t watched it for many months as I believe its to be canned by the end of the year.
    Back to you Spearsy !

  5. 98.6 @ #711 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 11:34 pm

    Aqualung says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:15 pm
    Is good. Is Dom. Oh wait.
    Who’s had a few too many…
    Hehehe
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Maybe, most PBs could answer in the affirmative.
    I’ve finished my bottle of sparkling and Ms 98.6 only had half a glass with orange juice.
    A good night was held by all.
    I’ve made the most of it, as it may be a while before the next celebration.
    Congratulations to Minns and the Labor Party for providing a great night of entertainment.
    Hope I get up in time for the Insiders.
    I must admit I haven’t watched it for many months as I believe its to be canned by the end of the year.
    Back to you Spearsy !

    Gotta say I said 70 seats/Labor win but I realistically thought the libs would get back.
    The libs are nearly, if you squint really hard, 70 seats from 93. Slurp…

  6. Oliver Sutton: “Greens with 10% advocating for the 62% who don’t want new coal mines.”

    10% of people that don’t have a job telling everyone else that they’re not allowed to work either.

    clem atlee: “PM’s should not be doing”

    Suffer in your jocks.

  7. Evan says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:23 pm
    Yes, the big winner is of course Chris Minns.
    The biggest losers: Bevan Shields, Alexandra Smith, Peter Costello, Ben Fordham, Ray Hadley, Tim Costello, the ABC Four Corners program, and Matt Kean.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    They will just use weasel words to hide their shame and embarrassment.
    However, I will take great pleasure in watching what they have to say. Maybe !
    The day before the 2007 Federal election John Laws, Australia’s man of the people, and the ordinary bloke’s spokesman, said that PM John Howard should be returned as PM.
    It was also his last day as a commentator as he was retiring.
    Well, what an idiot, Laws turned out to be when Kevin 07 romped in with a Ruddslide.
    My point is, just because they have a name as a commentator or broadcaster, they probably aren’t as well informed as a Poll Bludger.

    Back after I do my competitions before midnight.

  8. Finally back from the footy – I will have to do a massive catch up – not sure what is more surprising, that my Saints managed to hold on to record another upset win, or that NSW Labor has won a clear majority! It was slightly surreal following the count at the game.

    Best wishes to all who helped out today in the election – and C@t I see that ‘Tory-gal’ was won!

    I thought Michael Holland would retain Bega, but am amazed at his 17% swing – and great to win South Coast as well.

  9. One Nation went backwards with a lower vote than last election.
    So much for Credlin and the RWNJ saying the Liberal party needs to be more like Lathams One Nation.

  10. Sustainable Australia ran candidate in just about every electorate (more than anyone except the big two and the Greens), and they’ve averaged 2.3%. That’s an awful lot of lost deposits.

  11. Wewantpaul wrote, “he seemed to be throughly true to himself and that is probably what you couldn’t recognise or understand.”

    I reckon it made Albo look small time. He gets a bit carried away, let’s his emotions get the better of him, which I think is a weak spot.

  12. No-one is gonna care what Albo said or did before Minns came on except maybe for the ABC’s Liberals looking for any excuse to trash him.

  13. As happy as I am with tonight’s results, I’m disappointed that both my parents-in-law were not here to witness Labor win this historic victory.
    Although they would be around 100 years old now, they did have a Labor drought in QLD and Federally for decades.
    Coming from a proud Labor family background, which had QLD Labor Premier Vince Gair as a close neighbour and frequent house visitor and who helped him win government by their loyal support, it would have made their day to see wall to wall Labor governments as we are seeing at the moment.
    Great job Chris Minns, Annastacia Palaszczuk, Mark McGowan, Peter Malinauskas and of course Dan Andrews.
    Pity about that tiny weinnie island just off the southern coast, its name I can’t remember at the moment.

  14. Bird of paradox says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:32 pm

    Safest seats (as projected), by 2cp margin…

    ALP (18)
    Wallsend 32.3
    Mt Druitt 25.6
    Keira 25.2
    Canterbury 24.6
    Wollongong 24.4
    Campbelltown 24.0
    Auburn 23.3
    Cessnock 23.3 vs ON
    Newcastle 23.0 * (this could end up as ALP vs Grn)
    Bankstown 22.7
    Blue Mountains 22.7
    Fairfield 22.5
    Granville 22.1
    Charlestown 21.3
    Macquarie Fields 21.0
    Port Stephens 20.8
    Maitland 20.4
    Blacktown 20.1

    Lib/Nat (3)
    Northern Tablelands 33.9
    Cootamundra 33.2
    Bathurst 23.0

    Other (3)
    Lake Macquarie 23.6
    Wagga Wagga 22.6
    Orange 22.6

    (I think I got ’em all.)

    So that’s why Labor didn’t get a landslide off ~55% of the 2pp vote – so much of it is bound up in safe seats in the Hunter / Illawarra / western Sydney. (Also add Lake Macquarie, Newtown and Balmain to that list, as they’d have a notional ALP/Lib margin about 30%.)

    A few surprises on that list. Bathurst actually swing TO the Nats by 5%, and it’s now their third safest seat. Held by Labor all through the Carr (etc) years.

    Right next door: Blue Mountains, sandwiched between Bankstown and Fairfield on the pendulum. Drive down the Great Western Hwy from Lithgow towards Sydney and the Labor vote suddenly jumps 30-40%. How are they that different?

    Port Stephens is now safer for Labor than Blacktown. Libs won it in 2007 when the Iemma govt was returned.
    ____________

    Labor may not have quite gotten a landslide win, but the Coalition – more particularly the Libs – got a landslide loss. As with the Feds, the NSW Libs were hit for six.

    Could we call it a Minn(i)slide?

  15. malcolm says:
    Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:06 am

    One Nation went backwards with a lower vote than last election.
    So much for Credlin and the RWNJ saying the Liberal party needs to be more like Lathams One Nation.
    ____________

    Credlin is a Labor plant.

  16. A lot of the swing to the ALP was absorbed by ALP seats and safe Liberal seats. Matt Kean may have crowed about retaining most North Shore seats but many safe Liberal metropolitan seats copped 10%+ swings to the ALP and the pendulum is going to look interesting after the counting has finished. It really has been a terrible election for the Libs. Nats increased margins in most of their seats, but look increasingly irrelevant to Australia’s metropolitan society.

    I enjoyed Matt Kean and Tania Mihailuk going at it on the ABC – their panels really need more energy. I enjoyed even more the fact that Mihailuk is probably not going to win an upper house seat. One Nation flopped in this election even more than the Libs and thank goodness for that.

  17. clem attlee says;
    I reckon it made Albo look small time. He gets a bit carried away, let’s his emotions get the better of him, which I think is a weak spot.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    They all do it. Win or lose. Malcolm Fraser cried when he lost to Bob Hawke.
    Hawke cried when Tiananmen Square occurred. Albo got emotional when talking about the Voice.
    Julia Gillard fought back tears in delivering the NDIS . Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama also shed a tear.
    It’s hardly a weak spot, more a badge of honour.

  18. SP: Mihailuk will probably be back. If One Nation don’t get a second seat, she’ll quite likely be appointed to the vacancy Latham caused by quitting early. (A sneaky scheme which doesn’t seem to have worked – looks like Latham’s not as personally popular as he thought.)

  19. Are we carrying on this antiquated idea about emotional expression being bad?

    Ugh – grow up.

    Either way it was a great night for Labor and a horrible one for the Libs .

  20. Bird of paradox: Unfortunate, but I’ll take One Nation only winning one upper house seat in this election cycle. Mihailuk is a piece of work and it was a shame the ABC didn’t have her on before we knew more about One Nation’s upper house performance.

  21. Dispatches from the front line: Apparently Greens voters were preferencing well and to a greater extent than the Right wing splinters. End result an enhanced Labor swing. Looking forward to the official tally on this.

  22. “They all do it. Win or lose. Malcolm Fraser cried when he lost to Bob Hawke.
    Hawke cried when Tiananmen Square occurred. Albo got emotional when talking about the Voice.
    Julia Gillard fought back tears in delivering the NDIS . Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama also shed a tear.
    It’s hardly a weak spot, more a badge of honour.”

    Not Nifty Nev, (Balmain boys dont cry) or Keating either.

  23. Yeah can you imagine Churchill crying in public after the fall of France, or on hearing that the Nazis intended to invade Britain. Yeah, not a problem, he should have wailed like a baby if he felt like it. I know what reaction I’d prefer.

  24. Rocket Rocketsays:
    Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 1:05 am
    98.6

    I have visited my parents’ graves after election wins, especially after returns to Government federally and here in Victoria. Bittersweet.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Indeed. What a bittersweet thing to do.
    I will definitely follow your example next time I visit their resting place.
    Thanks.

  25. How did the ALP give a mentally unstable, alcoholic boor like Latham the leadership in the first place? The answer is that he was a right-winger who wrote an extremely crappy book “Civilizing Global Capital” about the need to “overcome the Left / Right divide” (i.e. be late 90s “new labour” neoliberals) which they thought meant he was an intellectual powerhouse with “fresh ideas” that would appeal to those who mattered.

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