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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
cheers bob
Kean needs to work on his Poker face. This is the moment Dom announced he was resigning
Douglas and Milko,
And this is why the ALP should force the ABC to move out to deep Western Sydney.
It’s Time says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:08 pm
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #597 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 8:54 pm
98.6 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:51 pm
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:47 pm
In the fullness of time John Howard will roll up the curtin, join the Choir Invisible, be canonised and sit at the right hand of Bob Menzies in the Liberal firmament.
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I hope someone cuts his eyebrows before then.
中华人民共和国
I think Morticians do that and trim the nails as they continue to grow after death. I stand to be corrected.
The skin loses tension after death and the hairs appear to be longer.
中华人民共和国
Well there you go! Thanks cobber – I learned another thing today.
Kean strikes me as one of the slipperiest characters around in politics. Gives me the creeps. Would do absolutely anything to gain advantage.
Hah that’s a good one Banana.
Ohh, on ABC, did Matt Kean just say that the Liberals “expected a worse result tonight?”
Norf by a point over Freo!!!!!!
south @ #642 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 10:08 pm
Let me put this another way. Labor was hamstrung with infrastructure because if they couldn’t privatise, then they couldn’t build stuff as quickly as the libs have without borrowing.
If they’d borrowed then not only would the Libs have attacked them, so would the media.
I used to work for STA. They weren’t brilliant but the corporate knowledge was worth it’s weight in gold.
STA rescued public transport for the Olympics.
What have the private operators rescued since privatisation when Sydney Trains die?
Cricket’s.
I do my best but the bus service in the Eastern Suburbs is appalling since the light fail started. I’m sorry packed services on George Street don’t help bus commuters (not customers) from Clovelly, Coogee or Maroubra.
Let’s not even begin on the Western barricade from Gladys.
Albo, Albo, Albo
Albo! Legend!
Question is-
Will Dutton be welcome at the Qld Election next year?
Yes, I know he’s a Qlder, but, after this massacre in NSW, there is a stench of death about him, and he wasn’t even invited to campaign there.
Morriscum will need to get out. This bloodbath is as much about his wrecking of the Liberal Party in Australia as it was about 12 years of corruption and mismanagement.
Tough night for PBs resident Liberal posters.
subgeometer says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:09 pm
sprocket_
While Rupert is still around it seems to me that Lachie is making most of the decisions, and while he’s even more right wing than his old man(the schoolboy ‘Socialist’ at Geelong Grammar) he doesn’t seem to know how to dump a loser, unless they are to the left of Genghis Kean
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I think 92 year old Rupert will be busy planning a weeding for the next few months with his new 66 year old flame, without worrying about dumping a loser.
Thank god she can’t have any kids. Or can she?
PM’s should not be doing warm ups for a newly elected premier. Not a great look.
Spare a moment for Jodi McKay because this could be her moment.
Now for the man of the hour..
Minns! Minns! Minns! Minns!
Chris Minns’ kids look scared!
You’d think they would have a better entry strategy for the Premier.
I’m gonna wake up tomorrow looking like his middle son.
“He’s not a fist pumper.” These right wing stooges in the ABC cannot help themselves. Trying to have a dig at Daniel Andrews.
clem attlee says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:22 pm
PM’s should not be doing warm ups for a newly elected premier. Not a great look.
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Congrats, clem. You once again manage to personify a lack of class.
The smell of death is not just around Dutton but the whole of the Liberal party. If they lose the Aston By-election he might be in trouble but I can’t see him copping the blame for this disaster. The NSW Liberals did it by themselves.
Plus as I have said before – Who do you replace Dutton with? The talent pool is really a puddle of dogs’ pee.
They should do the welcome to country for every paragraph because I know how much it pisses off the RWNJ’s.
“Jeebus, Sarah Ferguson on ABC – “the Liberals rebuilt infrastructure in a state (NSW) when it had stood still under Labor”.
Oh for fucks sake. Carr and Egan pumped in an addition $61 billion on new infrastructure on top of the forward estimates over their first two terms of government.
The whole trope that Labor was bad on infrastructure owes everything to only two brain fart decisions – Rees gutting Iemma’s metro and Kennelly scrapping the project altogether.
Carr rebuilt every hospital in NSW bar RNS, FFS! Over 300 black spots fixed on our roads. $10 billion to untangle city rail and duplicate all those lines – and extend them – in the outer metro areas.
clem attlee,
It’s actually a good thing. Imagine if you were in NSW, you’d want to know that they PM liked your premier. And it’d be great to know that Minns has a good relationship with the PM. Cast your mind back to when everyone had to deal with SfM.
Anyway, optics don’t matter, they got 4 years to sort it out now.
What are you banging on about? A PM needs to maintain a bit of gravitas. Albo just comes across as a fanboi.
I think it’s the perfect look, Clem. Reminds people that Dom wasn’t the only loser tonight!
Winners: Albanese, Minns, the people of Australia and the people of NSW.
Losers: Dutton, Littleproud, Bandt, Nationals, Liberals, Greens, One Nation, etc.
“Spare a moment for Jodi McKay because this could be her moment.”
Spare a moment for the 65% of both the party membership and caucus who were done over.
Chris minns kids glad they not liberals
They’d be wearing suits and ties
Solid victory speech from Minns.
“What are you banging on about? A PM needs to maintain a bit of gravitas. Albo just comes across as a fanboi.”
While I think associating with anyone on either side of politics in the state of corruption is an error, there was no lack of gravitas in the PM’s comments.
He seemed to be throughly true to himself and that is probably what you couldn’t recognise or understand.
Cheers Shellbell!
Just spent half an hour away from the computer, icing a cake and watching my footy team lose in a typically aggravating way… bloody Freo. At least one team won tonight.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #672 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 10:28 pm
Wran duplicated the Cronulla line between Caringbah and Gymea.
Carr and Co duplicated the bits between Cronulla and Caringbah and Gymea and Sutherland.
Labor duplicated the Alfords Point bridge and associated roads. Most of these areas are hard core liberal.
Carr Labor duplicated Windsor Road. There were almost no votes in these projects.
Labor rebuilt Blacktown hospital. I’m buggered if I know what the libs built up there but I do know they couldn’t give a proverbial about Mount Druitt hospital which I’ve used and got nothing but praise for. Bad winner. Yep.
Bird of paradox
Likewise
Would have been more disappointed had labor lost
That’s what being a Freo supporter does to you
Bird of paradox
Likewise
Would have been more disappointed had labor lost
That’s what being a Freo supporter does to you
Labor must re-instate a strengthened NATIVE VEGETATION ACT.
First batch of Monaro postals swings to Whan exactly like other votes (14.5%).
Overall Whan ahead by 2% on primaries. Exhausted votes up 6% to 46%.
By contrast, in Goulburn, exhausted votes down 12% to 43.5%. Similar pattern in Goulburn to Monaro re postals. Large swing to Labor in Moss Vale but against Labor in Crookwell pre-poll. Seat will be decided by Goulburn pre-poll. If that is similar to Goulburn booths, Labor will lose.
So Goulburn projection by ABC computer of Labor lead seems doubtful.
Chris Kenny is praising Minns. Also, Laura Jayes is a hottie.
Well, this is certainly a nice result to get home to on a Saturday night!
Has Barilaro made his concession speech yet ?
Seriously. On 9. Labor 52% primary!
Greens 2. Something.
New South Wales – welcome home to Mother Labor. It’s good to have you back.
As for me – I’m taking Mrs Upnorth and the nipper out for Tea. Thanks for the company all, but a special thanks to William and big Adrian for their hard work. Stay safe.
ajm says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:16 pm
Kean strikes me as one of the slipperiest characters around in politics. Gives me the creeps. Would do absolutely anything to gain advantage.
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Who gives a shit what he looks like. He and his crooks are out for 4 years.
98.6 @ #692 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 9:51 pm
It’s not what he looks like. It’s what he does.
clem attlee says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:22 pm
PM’s should not be doing warm ups for a newly elected premier. Not a great look.
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Au Contraire, I loved it .
Bega pre-poll reports at 56% to Labor. About 5% lower than the booth results for Bega. In Monaro Jerrabomberra pre-poll 8% lower to Labor.
“Nuke the entire party from orbit–it’s the only way to be sure”
Upnorth says
Albo, Albo, Albo
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Enough Already says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:20 pm
Albo! Legend!
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Did I say “I like the boy”?
(Sorry, Bert.)
Anti-Pokies former Lib Troy Stoltz on 4.1%.
I rest my case
it would have been better if prue car not albanese introduced minns then again perottit had howard introduce him better if federalmps dont campaign to much for there state party so wonder what aligzandra smith will say abbout perottits terible campaign and how the cashlis gaming did not save them