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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
Dom made a smart move telling Peter Dutton he was not welcome on the campaign trail – saved the furniture
Ross – Churchill retired at 89 from the House of Commons. Billy Hughes however died an MP at 90. Howard is only 84 so he is a spring chicken compared to them.
@98.6
I think it’s significant because it’s clear that the NSW Coalition opposition from this night on is going to be hopelessly divided from the “moderate right” to “far right”.
It’s going to be ugly for them for the next few years, and the mod-lib Portios pretending this was a good result for them shows they’re going to be in for a long internal war.
sprocket_,
Dom is very young, he’s got a future if he wants it.
Wow! listening to Dom Perrotet’s speech.
“Friends, Romans and country men …”
Is this Dom’s application for a senate seat?
Dom more gracious than some I’ve seen
It’s been a long time since I’ve heard a Liberal give such a gracious and uniting concession speech. I hope it bodes well for the future. I’m sick of their winner take all and losers have been cheated (as long as it has been them) mentality imported from the USA.
Dom not mentioning the rorts or corruption – the voters noticed
Gough lasted the longest, making it to 98.
How much longer will there be a Liberal firmament?
The next little while will determine if they survive as anything more relevant than the old Major in Faulty Towers.
Rupert is 92 and still pulling the chains of Conservatives globally
The problem is, for every decent Liberal, there are a bunch of cookers attached to their coat-tails.
And that’s not even to mention the Nationals.
Dom not resigning – yet
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatismsays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:54 pm
“as they continue to grow after death. I stand to be corrected.”
_________
Probably something like this in Howard’s case.
https://youtu.be/qIitjokEJwg
How does an upper class trust fund baby get an accent that sounds like something from south-western Queensland?
Masterclass in a concession speech here. Gracious in defeat while also passionately defending your government’s achievements.
But Dom now rewriting history
If they were as good ad he says his come they have just lost?
So glad to see the back of Stuart Ayres. What a leech. He can FRO.
”Masterclass in a concession speech here. Gracious in defeat while also passionately defending your government’s achievements.”
Yes. Statesmanlike.
One of the better concession speeches I’ve seen.
Oh god, he mentioned introducing Service NSW as a positive.
Service NSW is a trick, services privatised to spivs, friends of the Liberal party, with Services NSW being just a phone number, where your call was directed to whatever private company was “providing” that particular service, at enormous cost to both the user (often small business) and the taxpayer.
Upper house now looking better – AJP 0.48 quotas to Lib 6.44. The closer Labor get to getting 8 off the bat (currently 7.97 quotas), the more prefs AJP can get from the Greens surplus and minor left. As much as I’m not super keen on militant vegans, go you good thing.
With the way the wider Australian electorate has shifted, so long as Labor governments around the country continue to be united and working towards the betterment of the country and the average Australian, the Liberals will be in the wilderness for a very long time.
If Labor starts to turn inwards and fight amongst itself, that’s when things will turn around. Disunity is death.
Dom not mentioning the elephant in the room – the boat anchor which is Scott Morrison, the albatross round his neck Peter Dutton, and the conga line of arseholes who are on the NSW Liberal Party pre-selection committee.
Oh, whew, didn’t expect Camden to swing that hard, but it has. That’s a Labor gain I didn’t expect.
Dom standing down as leader
Resigned as usual after defeat.
The guy was responsible for ICare!
I couldn’t give a flying whatever. He should never have been in parliament after that let alone premier. He can FRO.
Dom standing down and the ABC putting a live feed of Kean smiling in the corner is the best thing I’ve seen in my life!
Dom is standing down!
As I said before Dom is not the villain here.
Dom seems excited to be stepping down. Good for him.
BoP
Always enjoy your posts- both informative and quirky amusing
Much better concession than some of the others we have seen – the NT CLP loser was exemplary in how not to do it
Interesting in Dom doing his thank you’s, the crowd at the Liberal HQ had a very lukewarm clap for Matt Kean. The disconnect between the Liberal Party membership and the wider voting public is real.
The libs had started to borrow like there was no tomorrow. I won’t be surprised if the books look like shit.
Think Service NSW is pretty good.
Always heaps of staff
Dom off to a cosy sinecure at Macquarie Bank no doubt.
No wonder he’s happy.
Gracious Dom forgot to thank his brothers!
Think Service NSW is pretty good.
Always heaps of staff
Ah well, as of 22:00 SYD local, even the ABC has it as full of shit 27, shit lite 47, Greens 3, others 7, in doubt 9.
I note the NSWP has just conceded.
Another religious nutter bites the dust.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #597 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 8:54 pm
The skin loses tension after death and the hairs appear to be longer.
Aqualung,
For sure, but there’ll be rorts to be clawed back. And there’s certainly fat on the state budget to be cut.
How do I post an image here? I have such a good screenshot of Kean giving a sly smile when he heard Dom resigning
Peter Dutton should be considering his position tonight
sprocket_
While Rupert is still around it seems to me that Lachie is making most of the decisions, and while he’s even more right wing than his old man(the schoolboy ‘Socialist’ at Geelong Grammar) he doesn’t seem to know how to dump a loser, unless they are to the left of Genghis Kean
Arky says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:46 pm
By the time we find out John Howard actually died already the Libs will have wheeled out his body Weekend At Bernie’s style for 3 campaigns and still lost all of them.
____________……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Where do you guys get this stuff?
Sooooooooooooooooooooo funny.
“How do I post an image here? I have such a good screenshot of Kean giving a sly smile when he heard Dom resigning”
Upload it to https://postimages.org/
then link it here. Assuming there’s no URL blockers.
Jeebus, Sarah Ferguson on ABC – “the Liberals rebuilt infrastructure in a state (NSW) when it had stood still under Labor”.
Fckn hell. The NSW Liberals have build a lot of Freeways, but completely destroyed public education and public Hospital infrastructure.
If the NSW LNP did such a great job why did they get kicked out? They are trying to change history and so much self-praise. You just lost the election idiots.