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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
7 Plus is only playing the horse-racing in QLD. Their election coverage seems to be geo-locked to NSW only??
Absolute joke!
Anthony Green has called it and gone home.
Note for WB.
The other NSW Election pages lack the links back to the Results page. Not a biggy. The back button works.
Pages lacking the link:
https://www.pollbludger.net/nsw2023/Overview.htm?
https://www.pollbludger.net/nsw2023/?
https://www.pollbludger.net/nsw2023/LC.htm?
So, Labor bludgers think this is in the bag.
The polls certainly suggest that.
All the Ch9 election panelists say Labor to win.
FWIW.
Ch 10 news says counting will only continue for 4.5 hours tonight.
Nothing is done till it done.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:42 pm
So, Labor bludgers think this is in the bag.
The polls certainly suggest that.
”
That is not a true reflection of Labor Bludgers.
Are there any seats which the Greens are likely to make a show in, apart from the three they already have? Lismore is a quirky three-way marginal between the Nats and Labor, but beyond that I haven’t heard of much. Summer Hill seems closest, but that’s starting from 46% ALP to 20% Grn.
Vic last year had a whole pile of safe ALP vs Lib seats that became marginal vs the Greens, and Qld 2020 had a few near misses too, so it makes me wonder.
And no counting tomorrow. Counting will resume on Monday.
I’ve been told by the Booth Manager that our Booth will be counted by 7.
That’s the Lower House ballots.
citizen says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:45 pm
Ch 10 news says counting will only continue for 4.5 hours tonight.
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Lib/nats combined primary vote below 40%
I’m predicting around 8:15 pm tonight , the election result will be clear it will be heading towards labor government
Confessions @ #NaN Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 5:49 pm
slacko’s
They didn’t budget for the penalty rates
Are pre-polls counted tonight or next week?
If recent elections are a guide, these are cucial to understand the end result.
Been on a poll in Coogee all day and now inside to scrutineer. Hopefully a good nigh
If this was North Korea the result would be known by 6:01pm.
Come home NSW to Mother Labor. You were the second State from which Labor was born. Come home now.
Scrutineering now as well.
ABC has Penny Sharpe and Matt Kean. The Ch9 panel looks more interesting, with the added bonus of William!
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:01 pm
Scrutineering now as well.
中华人民共和国
Go you good C@t!
Oops was in the wrong thread. Good luck all!
Ashley Raper warming up for tonights telecast..
Ummmm….what?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-election-2023-live-updates-dominic-perrottet-chris-minns-go-head-to-head-across-state-to-become-next-nsw-premier-20230324-p5cv22.html
Credlin already dirtying up on Sky 😆
Strategists for both parties spinning to manage expectations.
The Sky coverage is available from the Sky News Australia website where you can then chromecast it to your smart tv.
Rex Douglas @ #26 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 6:12 pm
I’ll pass thanks. 😆
Always ABC for me, although William of course I will send positive vibes your way.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:12 pm
The Sky coverage is available from the Sky News Australia website where you can then chromecast it to your smart tv.
中华人民共和国
Paul Murray. Yuck I’d rather a blunt pencil in my eye. Watching ABC and Beers are officially Iced.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:12 pm
The Sky coverage is available from the Sky News Australia website where you can then chromecast it to your smart tv.
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Rex Douglas , sorry to say no where near the caliber of Taylormade , but you still get a LOL
For me the seats of interest are Parramatta, Penrith, Holsworthy, Monaro and East Hills.
For Labor to get majority they have to win Parramatta and Penrith.
Well I would generally watch the ABC, but with Matt Kean who is no more than a talking head – never seen a Treasurer have so much power (he really runs the state), it won’t be ABC for me tonight. Maybe Channel 7.
I think it will be far closer than the polls suggest.
Upnorth, not all pre-polls as some don’t have the space or are too large to be counted by 10:30pm. Antony Green did publish a list of those that will, but I didn’t see enough context to work out how many were missing.
As an aside they will also be counting available postals for the 35 seats likely to matter to the result tonight
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/2023-nsw-election-day-live.html
My live comments (comments every 5-10 mins during peak time, less often during the prepoll lull)
Postcount threads late tonight or tomorrow
Simon says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:20 pm
Upnorth, not all pre-polls as some don’t have the space or are too large to be counted by 10:30pm. Antony Green did publish a list of those that will, but I didn’t see enough context to work out how many were missing.
As an aside they will also be counting available postals for the 35 seats likely to matter to the result tonight
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber. Dips me lid to you.
Paul Murray on Sky already looks about 10 bourbon and cokes deep.
Watching Sky News coverage here. Interesting news is that the Liberals expect to lose Wakehurst to the Independent, according to the woman reporting from Liberal HQ.
7 other seats were mentioned, among them Parramatta, Penrith, Goulburn and Holsworthy, but I didn’t catch the other 3.
S. Simpson says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:23 pm
Paul Murray on Sky already looks about 10 bourbon and cokes deep.
中华人民共和国
Probably scoffed a dozen party pies.
25% of the Penrith Electorate not counted tonight!!! NSW the Premier State indeed.
S. Simpson @ #NaN Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 6:23 pm
Yeah he looks like he hasn’t slept for a week. Terrible.
ABC reporter was meant to be on a train for a cross but isn’t because of delays.
Predictions (some more serious than others) from me…
Labor to win everything up the pendulum to about 7%, except Upper Hunter. Also hold Bega (from the by-election). Narrow majority, or dealing with Greg Piper.
Indies elected in 2017 and ex-SFF all retain their seats; maybe Ward? I still don’t think he’ll win, but people a lot closer to Kiama than me think he will. Coin-flip.
Other indies: maybe Willoughby or Davidson. In the bush: not Dubbo because there isn’t one. Maybe Upper Hunter, but the ex-ONP indie and SFF will spoil each other’s chances. Somebody mentioned Myall Lakes?
Greens to swipe Lismore. Make top two in Summer Hill, Heffron and Newcastle. (Based on a very lazy-eyed view of the pendulum.)
A completely uncharacteristic 10% swing to the Libs in Terrigal, with Labor narrowly avoiding third place above the Greens. (Ya rly. 😛 )
Upper house: 12-9 to the left. 8 ALP, 2 Grn, another two from {9th ALP, 3rd Grn, AJP, Legalise Cannabis}. If that happens, Labor will have to play nice with the Greens, and the Greens will have to play nice with Jeremy Buckingham. On the right: 7 Lib/Nat, 1 ONP, 1 SFF. No second ONP thanks to right-wing vote splitting between Riccardo Bosi, Lyle Shelton, the remnants of the CDP, etc. Mihailuk might end up there anyway to fill Latham’s fake vacancy.
I started getting the Opal notifications about train delays an hour or so ago. Just more evidence of the complete incompetence of the NSW government.
And a fitting end to the government too.
DoPe has thrown sink when it comes to Election promises.
Will it sway the voters because of hip pocket concerns. We have to see.
When seats will be counted.
https://elections.nsw.gov.au/elections/state-government-elections/2023-state-general-election/postal-votes-to-be-counted-on-election-night
Penny Sharpe is impressive.
On Sky, Anthony Roberts of Lane Cove looking terrified, given he’s being challenged by a Teal Independent.
He’s been the MP there since 2003, so his 20-year tenure there is being realistically challenged for the first time.
Early booths…
Libs way down in the first Cronulla (!) booth – more to Greens than Labor. Also big swings in Miranda and Riverstone.
Donato smashing the Nats in Orange, over 50%. He’ll win.