New South Wales election live

Live commentary on the NSW election results. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

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Live Commentary

11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.

19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.

And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.

10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.

9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.

8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.

7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.

7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.

7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.

7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.

7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.

7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.

7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.

7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.

6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results.  I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.

The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead.  Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.

From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.

ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.

There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms.  To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9.  I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week.  It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.

From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.

738 comments on “New South Wales election live”

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  2. It is bizarre that the Liberals didn’t preselect more women for those north shore vacant seats. You have to look at what they do rather than what they say when it comes to gender equality.

  4. Kirsdarkesays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:34 pm
    On Sky, Anthony Roberts of Lane Cove looking terrified, given he’s being challenged by a Teal Independent.

    He’s been the MP there since 2003, so his 20-year tenure there is being realistically challenged for the first time.
    ——————————————————————————-

    Yep as Planning Minister Roberts has more or less been the political rep for the developers lobby. The good folks of Lane Cove would be aware of this. No wonder Rinehart is helping him out.

  7. Hopefully the long nightmare will be over and the lost decade closed.

    Gladys, Maguire and Barilaro should be in jail if there was true justice.

  8. Main reason I’m watching Sky is because it’s free-to-air in regional Victoria and I’m looking forward to some probable entertainment, if my prediction that Labor wins outright is made true.

    It was very fun in the Victorian election, watching them react to Dan Andrews winning live, and they don’t make the footage re-watchable.

  9. Kos Samaros says One Nation voters tend to be wealthier. I wasn’t aware of that, and had always regarded them as rural and regional white trash. Instead it sounds they’re more like older suburban Karens.

  11. Kirksdale:

    If you search YouTube, you should be able to find Sky’s coverage of both last year’s federal and Victorian election. The Victorian coverage is a particularly fascinating glimpse into the alternate reality these lunatics live in.

  14. Bird of paradox @ #49 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 6:35 pm

    Early booths…

    Libs way down in the first Cronulla (!) booth – more to Greens than Labor. Also big swings in Miranda and Riverstone.

    Donato smashing the Nats in Orange, over 50%. He’ll win.

    Someone reported the Bludger from Bronte had been seen around Cronulla and Miranda. I commented that Cronulla was no hope but wondered if the denizens of Miranda might rustle up a 27% swing. If Cronulla falls you’d have to think a landslide is on the cards. Early days. Too early I think.

  15. Labor coming fourth in Tamworth, behind Rodda (ind) and SFF. Nat >50% though.

    Leppington’s weird. Huge swing to Labor at Barramurra, huge swing away in Hoxton Park. I guess one booth is from a super-safe Labor seat and the other from a marginal?

    Dalton well ahead of Nats in the first few Murray booths.

    First little Barwon booth has 40% for Butler AND 16% for Shooters. Projection says lineball between Butler and Labor (who are currently second – that wasn’t a Broken Hill booth either). Hmm.

  16. If the Libs get hammered this will “confirm” in the heads of the hard-right that if you “go woke you go broke”. A Liberal Opposition will move to the hard right in order to win back One Nation voters. Scary stuff and not good for the state or country.

  17. @Asha

    I’ve had a search for the Victorian election coverage, but haven’t found the full broadcast of the Sky news coverage, which was remarkable for the moment when Peta Credlin looking like she’s sitting in the Boulevard of Broken Dreams when it was declared that Labor won.

  24. Ven

    Early results in Monaro looking good for Steve Whan. 24% swing to Labor in small town of Major’s Creek near Braidwood. Had been strong for Labor in past but Porky Barilaro got 70% in 2019; reduced to 34%.

  26. On Sky News, Laura Jayes reporting that the Coalition currently expecting at least 10 seats lost. Looking very bad for them.

    Also thanks for the link to the federal election coverage, Asha, will probably watch it again next week.

  27. Gareth Ward ahead in Kiama – Libs running 4th. Labor second. Hehe and they say Queenslanders are crazy.

  28. Legalise Cannabis over 10% in Myall Lakes, way ahead of the Greens and dicing it with Labor and the indie. Partly donkey vote. Also, I might have to make a note of the towns they do well in, for next time I’m on holiday over there. *cough*

    The disendorsed Nat in Cessnock is fourth, behind One Nation and LC.

    First Kiama booth – Ward in front, Libs a distant FOURTH? (Behind the Greens.)

    Labor projected ahead in Monaro and Lismore (Greens third there).

  31. Just early stuff but the village of Bowning near Yass has usually been strong Liberal, there is currently a swing of about 14% to Labor there so far. It was hard work last time I handed out HTV for Labor there, so this is encouraging.

  33. I’m getting a good feeling about this, hopefully our NSW brothers and sisters will throw off the shackles of LNP rule and join the brotherhood of Free States*

    *Terms an Conditions apply, mainland States only, Territories included as ‘states’ for the purpose of the hubris, any offence either direct or implied please direct any concerns to your own rectum.

  36. Back on grid – been happy with the ABC coverage.

    Hope Matt Kean moves to the Federal space and boots the loser Dutton out as leader. Better for our polity to have some competition…

  37. Opened the Cab, Shir, Mer. Champagne on ice. Not opening until I’m sure.
    Unlike the red I can’t put the top back on.

    Go Simon Earle.

  38. S. Simpson,
    If the libs go hard right, I look forward to a generation of ALP governments.

    Lets just hop Chris Minss funds ICAC.

  39. Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 7:06 pm
    Gareth Ward ahead in Kiama – Libs running 4th. Labor second. Hehe and they say Queenslanders are crazy.

    Huge common thread between Kiama & the deep north… mad christians

  42. ABC Coverage frankly is shit house, couldn’t be bothered watching it to be honest, I prefer following the results on the internet. David Speers is a card carrying Liberal, never fails to show his bias.

  43. Gotta laugh at this guy acting like the Liberals had anything to do with Parramatta. The only thing that mattered was Westfield buying everything up to Church Street, and people building apartments.

    Hilarious was the spruiking of a new pool… a pool they demolished for the stadium, and that stadium was built because the two local teams needed a bigger stadium and it would have looked bad for the LNP if the SCG Trust got the SFS rebuilt before Parra.

  46. Suggested drinking game memes:

    “We failed to communicate our message clearly to the electorate.”
    “I’m looking forward to spending more time with my family/young female staffer”
    “It was hard for us to counter Labor’s disinformation about our strong economy.”

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