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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
Dutton is the name which cannot be mentioned
The NSW election coverage from both 9 and ABC this year is mirroring the campaigns.
Antony green just said things looking good for labor not so good for government
I know it’s early but I’m pleased to hear it
Minns might just fall over the line in Kogarah.
Riverstone is an electorate that’s caught my attention since the 2011 election. It had one of, if not, the biggest swing against Labor of over 30%, turning from 60% Labor to 70% Liberal 2pp. I don’t know what it is about it that makes such wild swings, but it’s definitely on the “must-win” list of seats that Labor needs to win tonight to win government.
My god this greens woman is shrill. Massively overinflated ego for a party who don’t have a handful of seats.
Back to 9
In Canberra, TV coverage of the Victorian election was either ABC or Sky regional free to air. Must admit I mostly watched Sky the presentation seemed to be better organised. Seeing Credlin dumbstruck with horror much of the time was a bonus!
Regan looking good in Wakehurst. Penn not quite so good (but still second) in Willoughby.
First Wollondilly booth is a total mess – Libs, Hannan, Labor, ON and Greens all between 10% and 30%.
Big swings against Libs in Castle Hill, Hornsby and Kellyville. They won’t lose them, but say goodbye to the 8th upper house seat.
I don’t know why the ABC is showing a series of quotes from Minns and Perrottet. It’s not as if they’re actually speaking right now, so what is the point of it?
William’s Results Summary “thingy” has Labor very close to 47 seats.
Lugano Anglican rocking it for the Liberals in Oatley…
https://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SG2301/LA/oatley/fp
Flicked over to Sky for a moment, Creddlin is already showing the sucked lemon face, or maybe thats a normal look. At least Antony is on the ABC
“Minns might just fall over the line in Kogarah.”
Only 900 votes counted but he’s got 70 to 20 on 2pp haha. Hopefully the results replicate that at the end of the night.
Got the shits with Speers already.
Pilbrow looking the goods in Goulburn, as Anthony says, Labor usually does well in both.
Fucking Latham on 7. How do you decide that you want commentary from that lunatic?
Thats the greens!
Also, riverstone is either new aspirational homeowners who are in a flood zone, or ultra oldies.
bob @ #114 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 7:19 pm
Indeed.
Goulburn starting to look interesting.
Little fear that Gareth Ward being re elected by crazy christians in Kiama will be a player in who forms government, as both Dom & Chris indicate they will vote for his suspension from parliament
ABC always have a love-in with the Liberal on the panel. Its been a problem for years now.
The ABC’s election coverage has been poor for years but my pet hate with election coverage is when they keep talking about the same seats all night.
Sky calling Parra for Labor
I figure 9 is the least worse with quite possibly the worst spectacle frames ever.
Looks like the Nats are holding their seats
Has our Lord and Master made an appearance yet?
Huge swing to Labor in Lismore.
Huge swing to Labor in Lismore.
Bega is looking tasty 🙂
“Fucking Latham on 7. How do you decide that you want commentary from that lunatic?”
When your goal is to stoke racism and fear and prop up parties that disrupt Labor voting blocs in Western Sydney that’s why you want that lunatic on. Same reason 7 put Hanson back into the limelight.
Q: Looks like the Nats are holding their seats
Yes, 2 seats under 5 percent arent moving….
DoPe is behind in Epping. (only just )
Looks like a slaughter
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 7:22 pm
Looks like the Nats are holding their seats
中华人民共和国
15.8% swing to Steve Whan in Monaro cobber.
Monaro is a faux Nat seat – Queanbeyan is a suburb of Canberra
Returning to the fold
I’m pleased to hear from Kos that the ‘rental cohort’ is going to be an important voting bloc from now on. We might finally get some traction on removing the ridiculously generous subsidies paid to real estate investors.
Oatley…
Be nice to see those primaries and preference flows continue in Miranda
Confession ssays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 7:18 pm
I don’t know why the ABC is showing a series of quotes from Minns and Perrottet. It’s not as if they’re actually speaking right now, so what is the point of it?
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
I agree. Stick to the numbers.
Nobody gives a shit about anything else>
sprocket_ @ #134 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 7:26 pm
We don’t want the “city of champions” thank you very much.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 7:26 pm
Monaro is a faux Nat seat – Queanbeyan is a suburb of Canberra
Returning to the fold
中华人民共和国
This is true plus Steve is a good bloke.
Confessions says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:52 pm
Kos Samaros says One Nation voters tend to be wealthier. I wasn’t aware of that, and had always regarded them as rural and regional white trash. Instead it sounds they’re more like older suburban Karens.
If you’ve ever been around the campfires out in Grey Nomad land, these people have big utes and caravans and they think Pauline is wonderful.
12% swing to the ALP in Hawkesbury sure its a safe Lib seat but if that sort of swing is happening there then Western Sydney looks strong for the ALP.
Sky called Riverstone for Labor too – are they going for the prize for the first to call??
Looking like an earlyish night. I am thinking it is called before 8:30pm.
re ch7 hosting Latham – it and esp Stokes are in for a reckoning.
Note that the decision in the Roberts-Smith defamation case has not yet been delivered, and prosecutions for war crimes have commenced, Stokes mate is in deep doodoo
Ryde is very close with 16% counted but prefs not counted in big booths.
If it’s that close in Ryde Labor will gain many other seats before Ryde.
SOUTH BLOODY COAST!!! I TOLD YOU ALL
LANDSLIDE
Are they hiding BillBowe behind a curtain so he can pull the strings?
DB:
I would’ve called them being older, but definitely not wealthier. That was a surprise to me.
The north side of Oatley strong for Labor – OPV will play a big factor here IMHO
Hannans Rd Riverwood at 60%+ for Labor