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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
Decent swing TO the Liberal Party in Liverpool.
B.S. Fairman says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:30 pm
Snappy – But it is sourdough!
____________
I’ve tried many forms of gluten free bread. Ugh.
Mrs Dog says Peta Credlin is not a good Reflective Listener! Harsh, I told her!
The libs might be hoping the former member for Bennelong shuffles off this mortal coil before the next election.
Oliver Sutton says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:25 pm
Aqualung says:
“7 live following Dom’s car. Only 24 minutes to go assuming the traffic across the bridge is kind.”
Maybe he’ll lead them to his fugitive brothers.
中华人民共和国
By the sounds of it lucky he didn’t take a train.
On Sky, Chris Kenny interviewing Michael Portios, a “moderate” Liberal party powerbroker braying that he thinks that they’ll be able to win back government in 2027.
Oliver Sutton,
I know, but it’s not like the greens present a platform of solutions. They just create problems for people.
The greens don’t have a plan for anyone who looses their job due to their policies.
And if they do have a plan it’s certainly not talked about at all.
“Greens claiming credit for a larger crossbench. Is anything they won’t claim?”
Flat whites. They don’t like the exploitation of cows.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #555 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 9:35 pm
lol I can only get the smiley face to appear 🙂
Religious conservatives in the Liverpool area swinging to the Liberal Party. Interesting.
John Howard on my TV screen
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:35 pm
“On Sky, Chris Kenny interviewing Michael Portios, a “moderate” Liberal party powerbroker braying that he thinks that they’ll be able to win back government in 2027.”
..and you would expect him to say????
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:35 pm
“On Sky, Chris Kenny interviewing Michael Portios, a “moderate” Liberal party powerbroker braying that he thinks that they’ll be able to win back government in 2027.”
..and you would expect him to say????
Speak of the evil fucker
Here’s the old rodent.
John “The Angel of Death” Howard. Well done again old mate. Well may you continue to campaign for the Tories.
After Howard the ABC are going to go live to Robert Menzies to hear his thoughts on the election.
Can’t talk to anyone from Labor though.
Damn, John Howard really is only a very slightly animated corpse these days, isn’t he?
Even the letterbox snails choked on the P.Duddy look-a-like:
John Howard on abc
Will he run for parliament again?
Churchill was how old?
Sigh.
Willoughby’s going to the Libs, isn’t it
Sorry for the language. I blame booze and John Howard
If Legalise Cannabis win a seat, that’s Jeremy Buckingham. Cate Faehrmann (Green #1) served with him for a few years (edit: at two separate times?). That should be a fun sideshow to watch.
Green upper house terms are confusing as hell to keep track of – so many of them seem to treat it as a halfway house on the way to federal senate. All those casual vacancies…
Re: sprocket @ 9:23,
There are two types of people – those who believe there are two types of people, and those who don’t.
S. Simpson says:
Decent swing TO the Liberal Party in Liverpool.
____________________________________
I’d say it was the redistribution, took in more of conservative outer suburbs such as Cecil Hills.
John Howard looks more and more like Alan Jones than ever. Like old married couples come to look like each other.
Richo: Howard a highlight of post-war politics. We owe him a debt. 😆
Yes John Howard was a long serving PM, but he not only lost an election but lost his seat too.
Isn’t that enough to say that he wasn’t that popular?
“Richo: Howard a highlight of post-war politics. We owe him a debt.”
We’re in post-war politics right now.
By the time we find out John Howard actually died already the Libs will have wheeled out his body Weekend At Bernie’s style for 3 campaigns and still lost all of them.
The last time Labor held government in all states and territories and federal was in the Rudd era in 2007 to 2008 WA election.
The last time the LNP did that was 1969 Tasmania election to the May 1970 South Australian election. And of course, NT and ACT did not have elected governments at that time.
Did Richo mean we owe our debt and deficit disaster on John Howard
Lead on the Courier Mail – hehe
“Coalition bloodbath as Minns romps to historic win”
bob says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:40 pm
After Howard the ABC are going to go live to Robert Menzies to hear his thoughts on the election.
Can’t talk to anyone from Labor though.
____________
Now, be fair bob, the ABC only black-banned Federal Labor.
It’s honestly a bit of a pity that what’s being aired on Sky won’t likely be aired again on Youtube or anywhere else. Hearing a humbled Barnaby and Peta on the Howard years compared to this election campaign is somewhat refreshing.
In the fullness of time John Howard will roll up the curtain, join the Choir Invisible, be canonised and sit at the right hand of Bob Menzies in the Liberal firmament.
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:35 pm
On Sky, Chris Kenny interviewing Michael Portios, a “moderate” Liberal party powerbroker braying that he thinks that they’ll be able to win back government in 2027.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Who cares?
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:47 pm
In the fullness of time John Howard will roll up the curtin, join the Choir Invisible, be canonised and sit at the right hand of Bob Menzies in the Liberal firmament.
中华人民共和国
I hope he is around to campaign at the next Queensland election – that will be a good sign for Labor.
The beat up on cashless gaming cards on the ABC is so tedious. Penny handled it with class.
I wonder if it’s not Howard demanding to be involved. He’s clearly that deluded.
Is the party?
If you look hard, every once and a while the camera pans over to Kean and you can star to see him realizing that he’s not at all relevant anymore. Especially as the very impressive ALP panelists handles the media like a pro.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:47 pm
In the fullness of time John Howard will roll up the curtin, join the Choir Invisible, be canonised and sit at the right hand of Bob Menzies in the Liberal firmament.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I hope someone cuts his eyebrows before then.
Dom didn’t bring the kids – I guess they couldn’t fit them all in the car.
Holy Dooley, who wheeled Richo out, Sky?
He and Howard could do an avant guard comedy act together, without realising it. Irrelevant old coots
Dom ‘I should have said more Hail Marys..’
Arky says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:46 pm
By the time we find out John Howard actually died already the Libs will have wheeled out his body Weekend At Bernie’s style for 3 campaigns and still lost all of them.
____________
‘Bernie’ Howard – LOL!
BTW, former World Cup-winning Wallaby Steve Larkham was nicknamed ‘Bernie’. Apparently, he was/is VERY quietly spoken…
A very gracious concession speech.
98.6 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:51 pm
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:47 pm
In the fullness of time John Howard will roll up the curtin, join the Choir Invisible, be canonised and sit at the right hand of Bob Menzies in the Liberal firmament.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I hope someone cuts his eyebrows before then.
中华人民共和国
I think Morticians do that and trim the nails as they continue to grow after death. I stand to be corrected.
Libs almost obsolete in this country.
Dom being statesmanlike – unite behind Minns