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Live Commentary
11:10 Labor is still leading in 51 of the 93 seats. They would need five leads to fall over to be short of a majority. It’s now 40 minutes after the 10:30pm close of counting, so presumably we’ll have to wait until Monday for more.
19% of enrolled has been counted in the upper house, and it looks as if Labor will win eight of 21 up at this election, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats, the Shooters and Animal Justice. This would give the left-wing parties the 12-9 win they need to take control of the upper house, but the current count is probably skewed to the left.
And with that, it’s time for bed. William Bowe will take over.
10:29 Here’s my Conversation article on the NSW election results. With nearly 48% overall counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 55.1-44.9 to Labor, a 7.1% swing since 2019.
9:36 I’ve been doing a Conversation article. In East Hills, Labor is getting a 9.7% swing on postal primaries counted so far and the Libs a negative 3.4% swing. That’s worse for the Libs and better for Labor than overall in that seat.
8:05pm PB results have Labor on 50 seats, Coalition 30, Greens 3, indies 10 with 19% overall counted. So Labor would need to lose four leads to be short of a majority.
7:46 PB results now giving Labor an overall majority with 8.6% overall counted. 47 Labor, 32 Coalition, 3 Greens, 9 indies. Seats with nothing counted are Liverpool and Manly. Liverpool is safe Labor, so Labor effectively on 48.
7:36 With 6.6% overall counted, ABC’s 2PP estimate up to a 54.7-45.3 margin for Labor. If that holds, Newspoll looking pretty good.
7:30 With 2.1% counted in Monaro, massive 16% swing to Labor where they flopped at byelections in February 2022.
7:22 2.9% overall counted, and PB results have Labor leading in 45 seats, the Coalition in 32, the Greens two and indies in nine. With five seats still to report any numbers, Labor will probably get a majority now.
7:18 With 2.1% overall counted, the ABC is estimating a Labor 2PP win by 54.2-45.8, a 6.2% swing to Labor since 2019.
7:12 1.4% overall counted; Labor ahead in 39 seats, Coalition 34, Greens two and indies eight. Looking harder for Labor to win an overall majority.
7:06 0.9% overall counted, and Labor now leads in 36 seats, the Coalition in 33, Greens in one and indies in seven.
7:02pm 1.1% counted in Riverstone, and Labor gaining that with a massive 19% swing. However, there are some swings to the Coalition.
6:53pm With 0.2% counted, the Poll Bludger results have Labor ahead in 26 seats, the Coalition in 18, the Greens one and independents two.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel Nine tonight, so I will provide live commentary on the NSW election results. I will need to take a break to write an article for The Conversation.
The final NSW Newspoll gave Labor a thumping 54.5-45.5 lead. Previous polling had not appeared strong enough for Labor to win a lower house majority (47 of 93 seats), but if this poll is correct they would be a good chance of winning a majority in their own right.
From my article for The Conversation today: Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.
ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.
There has been little attention on the upper house, which has 42 members with 21 up every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. To take control of the upper house, left-wing parties need to win the 21 seats up at this election by 12-9. I covered the upper house in a preview article for The Conversation last week. It’s likely to take until at least next week to get a clear picture of the upper house result.
From William Bowe: The results system is up so you at least can see what the entry page looks like, although the seat pages won’t be accessible until 6pm – let’s hope it more or less works as it should, but given all the complications involved in adapting it to optional preferential voting, we’ll have to see how we go. I am holding off including a statewide two-party estimate on the entry page until I’m entirely confident it’s working as I should be. A point to remember about the seats summary on the entry page: if the system is not satisfied that it has the right two candidates for the two-party preferred count, or that it won’t make any difference to the result (requiring a manual update that I may not be all that timely with), the “assessment” will not go beyond identifying a candidate as “ahead” and the “probability” columns will not be populated.
Sky News right now! Popcorn!
Kean should let everyone dump on him and then go Indie. Fuck em.
Sceptic says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 8:59 pm
Why can’t the Libs mention corruption being their biggest problem? 12 years of it,
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I don’t care what anyone says, Former Premier Gladys Berejikilian was the reason the liberals lost this election.
What decent minded voter would vote for a party whose leader and premier had to resign due to being called before an ICAC inquiry into dubious discussions with her secret boyfriend, the results of which have yet to be made public.
The Labor party has Berejikialn to thank for their win.
The Banana Republicsays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:07 pm
Excellent point from the ex Labor strategist on the ABC, the Liberals have not connected at all with Millennials (and Gen Z as well). Lets hope the damage is permanant
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Kos is right but the Liberals are also losing Gen X and Gen Y but the political cycle always turns.
So, what’s happening in Balmain?
Greens only narrowly won.
Swing to the greens in the other seats they held – Newtown vs labor and Ballina vs nats. Swing to the greens in summer hill where they now are second. Swing to greens statewide (albeit lower than the labor swing).
But they nearly lost Balmain.
Anyone close to this seat have the context?
Who is the blonde lady on Sky? Her and Clennell are getting stuck into Credlin.
98.6,
Sadly the ALP won’t beat the coalition to death with that fact for the next 10 years.
One things to be said about the cons, they stay on message. KK wore a lot of shit for the Obied dramas of the past, and the out going crop of lnp crooks are just as bad yet are getting a very easy treatment from the media.
On Sky, Peta Credlin arguing with Natalie Ward about whether or not Matt Kean would be more effective as Opposition Leader. Very strong disagreement there. Looks like the rift of mainland opposition L/NP parties will continue in earnest.
Voice endeavoursays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:13 pm
So, what’s happening in Balmain?
Greens only narrowly won.
Swing to the greens in the other seats they held – Newtown vs labor and Ballina vs nats. Swing to the greens in summer hill where they now are second. Swing to greens statewide (albeit lower than the labor swing).
But they nearly lost Balmain.
Anyone close to this seat have the context?
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Balmain is very wealthy with lots of prime waterfront real estate.
Which Steven Whan will be getting?
“One Nation would basically be just another right wing fringe group if the commercial media didn’t give them tons of free publicity.”
Yep. They were dead for all money except for commercial TV’s determination to rehabilitate Hanson through Dancing With The Stars and breakfast TV.
Antony Green calls Balmain for the Greens.
mjsays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:11 pm
The damage is permanent with Millenials and younger. People are less connected with any party as they become more distant to the ppl they’re meant to represent.
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It’s not permanent because it’s been easy for the ALP to win against disunified and tried Liberal governments but in time people will judge the ALP for what it does in government.
S. Simpson,
Not a good night for the greens overall.
Steve Whan the younger
What happened to Mark Latham? Was he elected to the lower house?
Balmain might reflect the Albo honeymoon.
0.2% 2pp Miranda
“but in time people will judge the ALP for what it does in government.”
Like in Queensland over the past third of a century, eh, MB?
Balmain has a soft spot for Labor – the man-bunned blow ins not so much
From KB
9:05 The Greens are improving in Balmain, the swing is making it marginal and I think some of the early preference counts were unrepresentative. But it’s not in the bag yet.
Greens claiming credit for a larger crossbench. Is anything they won’t claim?
south: “Not a good night for the greens overall.”
Positive swing of 0.7%.
Certainly not a bad night.
@Confessions
Unfortunately Latham was the no.1 candidate for One Nation in the upper house, and so far they have achieved 1 quota, so he’s being elected for an 8-year term, that’s without a doubt.
Well done C@t
Terrigal looks cooked for the Libs.
Exhausted are beating the Libs 4:1 in preferences
The late great Neville Wran famously said
“There are two types of people, those who were born in Balmain, and those who wish they were..”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:20 pm
“but in time people will judge the ALP for what it does in government.”
Like in Queensland over the past third of a century, eh, MB?
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The ALP has done well in Queensland and it’s had a series of good leaders.
7 live following Dom’s car. Only 24 minutes to go assuming the traffic across the bridge is kind. 🙂
S Simpson.
Not a good night for the greens. But not a terrible one.
Retained all three lower house seats. Two with small swings towards, 1 with a big swing against.
Swing towards them on primary vote state wide despite teals and a good labor vote. Took them above 10%, I believe for the first time ever.
Almost certain to improve on their 1 LC seat up for election and this wash out the impact of the defection that cost them a seat. Still possible they’ll get a 3rd.
Sure, it could have gone better. But I’m happy enough as a green voter. Some other parties had worse days.
How do you
Post a picture in the comments ??
Greens sitting member was retiring in Balmain.
Upper house results starting to come through. On quotas: ALP 7.8, Lib 6.6, Grn 2.18, ON 1.28, LC 0.88, SFF 0.84, LDP 0.71, AJP 0.44… then the long tail.
For seats, that looks like 8 ALP, 7 Lib, 2 Grn, 1 each ON, LC, SFF, LDP. Counting LC as left, that’s 11-10 to the left, and a tied upper house (last time was 10-11).
Maybe AJP will get lucky from Farrelly, Public Eduation (whatever that was), Socialists and the Greens surplus – they did well on preferences last time.
Oliver Sutton,
yeah, but it’s not the overall swing that matters, it’s the seats you get.
Anyway, back to twitter to enjoy the night.
Helen Dalton smashed it in Murray. Good result.
Congratulations, C@t! Terrigal for Labor!! Did that even happen in the Carr landslides?
Just talking to Ms 98.6 on how nice it is to have had a few wins in a row under our belt.
QLD, WA, SA, VIC, ALBO and now NSW.
God must be a Labor voter. (At the moment)
Aqualung says:
“7 live following Dom’s car. Only 24 minutes to go assuming the traffic across the bridge is kind.”
Maybe he’ll lead them to his fugitive brothers.
Kirsdarke @ #524 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 9:22 pm
What a shame.
Jamie Parker was a waste of space
Greens have plan
But labor have majority
Greens irrelevant
B.S. Fairman says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:21 pm
Greens claiming credit for a larger crossbench. Is anything they won’t claim?
____________
Sliced bread – typically contains gluten.
Greens with 10% holding the nation to ransom
sprocket_,
That’s why I think that Bandt may not be getting the vibe ATM re climate change. We can’t go destroying industries in the middle of a world wide recession.
Man buns are so 1990s.
The Greens will retain Balmain I think
sprocket_ says:
“Greens with 10% holding the nation to ransom”
Greens with 10% advocating for the 62% who don’t want new coal mines.
Snappy – But it is sourdough!
Holsworthy now line ball. Damn.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:25 pm
Aqualung says:
“7 live following Dom’s car. Only 24 minutes to go assuming the traffic across the bridge is kind.”
Maybe he’ll lead them to his fugitive brothers.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
He might have got there quicker if he called his Health Minister and demanded an ambulance.
The Party of God botherer’s and trickle downer’s is being shat upon – Australia wide
Tasmania will take note
Next Aston
Where they have a God botherer trickle downer as their candidate
south: “We can’t go destroying industries in the middle of a world wide recession.”
No worries: climate change will take care of that, regardless.