Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Newspoll gives Labor its equal worst result of the term, with Anthony Albanese taking a knock on both personal approval and preferred prime minister.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, the first such result since November and only the second for the term, closing a 52-48 lead in the last result three weeks ago. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33% while the Coalition is up two to 39%, its best result since August 2021, with the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation steady at 7%. Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has reportedly been cut since the last poll, in which he led when Anthony Albanese led 52-33, from nineteen points to eight, though we will have to wait on the exact results (UPDATE: Albanese’s lead is 46-37). Albanese is down four on approval to 43% with disapproval up three to 50%, while Dutton is up one to 39% and down one to 49%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1232.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,350 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. So Kevin Bonham is now suggesting Woke Albo is on his way out. This is getting interesting. I believe this is what Lars has been intimating all year.
    Who to replace him?
    1. Tanya Plibersick
    2. Snake Charmer, or
    3. Chloe Shortens husband.

    What a choice.

  2. I didn’t actually suggest that; I did however joke about the fact that Albanese’s Better PM lead over Dutton is exactly the same (46-37) as Kevin Rudd’s last BPM lead over Abbott before being dumped, supposedly because he was about to lose the election. Spooky!

    Rudd was also up 52-48 on 2PP whereas Albanese is only at 50-50! So all the hacks who rolled up Kevin07 in 2010 (some of them are still in Parliament no doubt) what’s keeping you? Why so shy about repeating your past glories? 😉

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 7:29 pm
    Oh c’mon we’ve long known that the Labor political party and its union aligned superfunds invest their money in all those types of unethical industries.

    … and Union Leaders worked out very early that it was a good way of making nice coin.

  4. Most neutral observers would agree with this UN COI report

    17.28 AEST
    UN report finds that both Hamas and Israel have committed war crimes on and after 7 October
    A UN report has said that in its view both Hamas and Israel have committed war crimes on and after 7 October.

    The UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) report covers the period from 7 October to 31 December 2023, and the findings are based on interviews with victims and witnesses, hundreds of submissions, satellite imagery, medical reports and verified open-source information.

    The report accuses Hamas of “intentionally directing attacks against civilians” and committing “murder or wilful killing”. It also accuses Hamas of “torture, inhuman or cruel treatment” and “indiscriminately firing projectiles towards populated areas in Israel”. Hamas was also accused of “the war crime of outrages upon personal dignity” noting during the 7 October attack “the desecration of corpses by burning, mutilation and decapitation” and “the sexualized desecration of both male and female corpses” and “sexual violence”.

    The report goes on to list what it says are Israeli war crimes, including “starvation as a method of warfare; murder or wilful killing; intentionally directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects; forcible transfer; sexual violence; outrages upon personal dignity” and says that “Israel inflicted collective punishment on the Palestinian population in Gaza.”

    In its conclusions, the report says:

    “7 October 2023 has marked a clear turning point for both Israelis and Palestinians, and it presents a watershed moment that can change the direction of this conflict; with a real risk of further solidifying and expanding the occupation. Amid months of losses and despair, retribution and atrocities, the only tangible result has been compounding the immense suffering of both Palestinians and Israelis, with civilians, yet again, bearing the brunt of decisions by those in power.”

    It continues:

    “For Israelis, the attack of 7 October was unprecedented in scale in its modern history, when in one single day hundreds of people were killed and abducted, invoking painful trauma of past persecution not only for Israeli Jews but for Jewish people everywhere … For Palestinians, Israel’s military operation and attack in Gaza has been the longest, largest and bloodiest since 1948. It has caused immense damage and loss of life and triggered for many Palestinians traumatic memories of the Nakba and other Israeli incursions.”

    Reuters reports the findings will be discussed by the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva next week. The COI is composed of three independent experts.

    Israel does not cooperate with the commission, which it says has an anti-Israel bias. Israel’s diplomatic mission to the UN in Geneva has already rejected the findings. Meirav Eilon Shahar, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, said “The COI has once again proven that its actions are all in the service of a narrow-led political agenda against Israel.”

    The COI says Israel obstructs its work and prevented investigators from accessing both Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/12/israel-gaza-war-middle-east-hamas-ceasefire-deal-lebanon-hezbollah

  5. Kevin B

    Your namesake Kevin R was not dumped ‘because he was going to lose an election’.

    He lost the confidence of his leadership team and the caucus due, allegedly, to his leadership style and dismissive behaviour towards colleagues.

    Albo does not have those character traits – so Spooky comparisons probably aren’t grounded.

  6. Not surprising.
    Shooting wars in the United Auto Workers and the Teamsters Union from the 1940s on were all about control of the Union’s Pension Fund.
    One UAW official was murdered along with his entire immediate family in a 60s bombing.
    Hawke called it National Savings when he was selling it, Australia needed more National Savings.
    Calling it Pension Funds would’ve given the game away.

  7. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 7:45 pm

    You forgot to mention all the Union Executives getting very nice Directors fees and the Unions getting the kickbacks on the default insurances that new “low-information” members get suckered into taking up.

    I bet my Vanguard Super Fund is cheaper than any of the Industry Funds.

  8. Kevin Bonham at 8.34pm
    =====================
    What’s spooky about it. The PPM is a champagne vote, the real action is the primary, and both yours and WB’s 2PP calculations indicate the ALP vote is sinking compared to last election. As for kevin07, correction kevin-o-lemon, being rolled, well yes his enemies are still sitting there in parliament. Apologies if i misquoted you. There are other posters on this site who believe that albo may be tipped out soon, I didn’t believe this until I saw your post. Thank you for all the work you do too, although I’m a bit distrustful of university people as you have probably worked out. But thanks, I think you and WB and Antony Green are ok. But i think Malcolm Mackerras is not correct on things.

  9. One thing is for certain – there would be closely held private polling on how the ALP would perform with or without Albo for both major parties.

  10. sprocket_
    My memo0ry is of Rudd failing on the greatest moral imperative of our time
    [the ETS] and announcing that action on Climate Change was going on the backburner for a few election cycles.
    5 minutes later he was out the door.
    Albo has made all the right noises about Climate Change but his problem is Dutts more or less doing a Rudd by declining to make a committment before winning office.
    John Howard reckoned Rudd would’ve easily won the election due in late 2010, so Rudd abandoning CC action was likely to have popular support in the electorate but none in theCaucus.

  11. Entropy @ #1292 Wednesday, June 12th, 2024 – 8:09 pm

    Confessionssays:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 8:04 pm
    If education was a priority for the young Sunak household, then it’s understandable he went without Sky.
    ==================================================

    If it is anything like Sky after dark here. They maybe didn’t want him watching a show that has a tendency to denigrate people of colour at times.

    What I was thinking, and if so then good on them.

    As sprocket said, perhaps the UK Sky is different from our SAD here in Oz. Who knows.

  12. Brussels will impose tariffs of up to almost 50 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing.
    The European Commission notified carmakers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply additional duties of between 17 and 38 per cent on imported Chinese EVs from next month.
    The duties will be applied on top of existing 10 per cent tariffs on all Chinese EVs, depending on the extent to which they complied with an EU investigation into electric carmakers.
    Major exporters including BYD, the world’s largest electric-vehicle manufacturer, and Geely will be hit by additional individual tariffs of between 17 and 20 per cent.
    Tesla “may receive an individually calculated duty rate”, the commission said.
    Brussels said that its probe revealed that the EV supply chain was “heavily subsidised in China, and that imports of Chinese [electric vehicles] presented a threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry”.
    https://www.ft.com/content/0545ed62-c4b9-4e8a-80fa-c9f808e18385

  13. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 9:04 pm

    Brussels will impose tariffs of up to almost 50 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing.
    ….’
    —————-
    Almost inevitable, IMO.

    If the West wants an auto industry at all it has block massively subsidized Chinese production. China has around 17% of the world’s population and around 30% of the world’s production capacity (of not just EVs).

    Xi thinks that the way out of his economic shambles is to export his way out of it. Not going to be allowed to happen.

  14. Sprocket at 8.42pm
    =================
    Kevin o lemon was dumped because he was rattled by Abbott’s backflip over the climate change nonsense, and couldn’t come to terms with another politician calling out the bullshit. Apparently Copenhagen also affected him. He went into a funk!
    He couldn’t call an election before 1/7/2010, because it would have reset the Senate terms, meaning he would have had to face another election before 30/6/2012. He was in a mess of his own making, and had choice but to ditch his climate change fantasy. Fantasies which some posters choose to believe 14 years on.

    WB or KB, I am correct on the constitutional stuff aren’t I. Forget about my personal spin.
    C@t – I am not the ‘mealworm” you thought I was either. Nasty stuff from the sites’ nasty poster.

  15. sprocket_ : the point of my stirring isn’t why Rudd was actually dumped (hence the “supposedly”), the point is about the arguments that were weaponised by those dumping him. At the time it was most definitely being claimed that polling showed he was going to lose the election, this claim being furthered by the giving away of “internal polling” to of all people Andrew Bolt. To this day nothing has ever surfaced to reliably establish that the polling given to Bolt was in any way sound or even existed – which makes me suspect it was garbage.

    As to why he was actually dumped, I think it’s largely what you mention (+ perceptions of micromanagement and risks of a dysfunctional campaign), but also a fear that he would win and entrench a presidential style in which factions were marginalised. And his own stuffups, probably above all being seen to wimp out on “the greatest moral challenge of our time” put him in a position where he was vulnerable to all that stuff.

  16. Dutton just gifted the next election to a Labor majority government. He did this with his specialities: arrogance, sheer stupidity, tough talk and slack action. Even Joyce got off the footpath.

    Dutton will go in with an NFI target and with nuclear power stations. The only real surprise is that he failed to link wind turbines with some sexual depravity from his favourite fever dream of compulsions.

    The Greens will go in with Zero Net Forty. The nanosecond a journo asks them how they are going to get there and Bandt says ‘Just Google It!’ they’re gone for another three years in the wilderness.

    The Teals will go in with a Climate Plan per Teal. Whatever that tower of babel means.

    Labor will go in with steady progress towards 43/30 supported by the saner heads in the land.

    It will help that the next interest rate move will be a fall, that rents are already heading south and that Labor will dole out some carefully targeted goodies in the March Budget.

  17. WB or KB, I am correct on the constitutional stuff aren’t I. Forget about my personal spin.

    “Couldn’t” is going too far, but yes, the double dissolution that many/most say he should have called would indeed have raised that issue.

  18. Who cares about EVs? Clearly, what Australia needs to do is to show those Chinese bastards a thing or two by imposing a tariff on solar panels.

    Make Chinese solar energy more expensive than good old reliable Aussie fossil fuels!

    That’ll teach those commie bastards a lesson, and show them that good old Aussie fossil fuels just can’t be beaten.

    Australia. The Clever Country!

  19. Alabama: the earliest day Rudd could have held a half-Senate election was 8 Aug 2010. He could have held a DD to flush the Senate as early as 3 July 2010 without the issue mentioned, which could have been called (a la Turnbull) at the end of May. However in the absence of Senate reform this may well have filled the Senate with preference harvesting randoms, a point not widely understood at that time.

  20. Kevin Bonhamsays:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 8:34 pm
    I didn’t actually suggest that; I did however joke
    ============================================

    Jokes are not something Alabama tends to get. He still thinks Obama wanted a 3rd term as President because he had joked with Stephen Colbert about on his show.

  21. Alabama: the earliest day Rudd could have held a half-Senate election was 8 Aug 2010. He could have held a DD to flush the Senate as early as 3 July 2010 without the issue mentioned, which could have been called (a la Turnbull) at the end of May.

    Alabama’s point was that a DD would have created a mid-2009 to mid-2012 Senate term, which in practice would have left little choice but for an early House election so it could be held concurrently with the next half-Senate.

  22. On Chinese EV subsidies, to be honest there is a fair bit or protectionism here. Sure the Chinese subsidise their EVs. But most OECD countries subsidise car makers.

    Look at the US inflation reduction act – a massive subsidy to US car producers, who still can’t compete.

    Telstra aside, most western car makers have failed to reform / rebuild their own car building processes to make EVs efficiently. China started assembling integrated supply chains for EVs years before their rivals.

    Nor is all the Chinese EV IP all based on stolen western IP. BYD in particular have developed their new “blade” battery internally. It is unique to them and has cut both battery costs and fire risk.

    I don’t trust Xi or Chinese industries but not everything China does is bad.

  23. https://theconversation.com/could-spending-a-billion-dollars-actually-bring-solar-manufacturing-back-to-australia-its-worth-a-shot-226809

    “A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those in the solar industry, and guarding against supply chain shocks and geopolitical tension”

    – Labor announces new economic opportunities that directly contributes to decarbonisation, offering jobs, and reduces our reliance on a single foreign supplier.

    – hard left response: No! Your will community will loose your coal and gas jobs! You must by your energy from China now! Now learn to code and teach migrants how to be accountants (uber drivers…)!

  24. KB at 9.24pm
    ========%==========
    He could have held a DD before 3/7/2010, but I am sure this would have reset the Senate back to 1/7/2009, meaning half the Senate would have to go for re-election in the 12 months leading up to 30/6/2012. Ie two elections in the space of two years. This is what Rudd wished to avoid. Per Senate reform – it was good of the Greens to side with the Libs on that one back in 2016.
    Some of the posters on this site believe the Greens and libs are in bed, perhaps they are correct.

  25. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 9:35 pm
    On Chinese EV subsidies, to be honest there is a fair bit or protectionism here. Sure the Chinese subsidise their EVs. But most OECD countries subsidise car makers. China started assembling integrated supply chains for EVs years before their rivals.
    ==========================================================

    What are the Chinese supposedly subsidising their EV makers with? Something needs to be making a profit to subsidise other areas. I think we can rule out their property market. In fact it is more likely EV makers are subsidising the property market than v.v.

  26. Ooh yeah, better watch out, Entropy, otherwise Alabama will transform into his Metal Gear Slug God-King Trump Royal Guard mode and really show you what-for.

  27. Thanks WB at 9.32pm.
    ==================
    From what I was taught at school, a DD can be pulled at any time except the last six months of the Senate’s term. I was taught that the Australian Senate is one of the most powerful institutions created. More powerful than the UK house of lords, but slightly less powerful than the U.S. Senate. My understanding is our Senate determines who is a short or long term senator post a DD election. Ie they run their own show, and a Senate not to be messed around with.
    I understood Rudd was harried into calling a DD in the early part of 2010 (before 30/6/2010), but he had to delay because he would otherwise be required to call another election before 30/6/2012, because the short term senators would have had their terms backdated to 1/7/2009.
    I am sure I am correct on this, even though I am a mealworm who only completed year 11.
    Anyway, enough I suppose. Good evening all.

  28. Entropy

    The Chinese subsidise EVs in many ways, direct and indirect. They give EV buyers rebates to buy Chinese EVs, guaranteed government orders that reduced risk for initial development of EVs, government intervention to secure critical resources for their supply chains…

    Even the Chinese acknowledge their EV subsidies.
    https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3265957/chinas-ev-makers-return-fast-lane-helped-government-subsidies-tailwind

  29. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2024 at 9:53 pm
    Entropy

    The Chinese subsidise EVs in many ways, direct and indirect. They give EV buyers rebates to buy Chinese EVs, guaranteed government orders that reduced risk for initial development of EVs, government intervention to secure critical resources for their supply chains…

    Even the Chinese acknowledge their EV subsidies.
    https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3265957/chinas-ev-makers-return-fast-lane-helped-government-subsidies-tailwind
    =======================================================

    Fair enough, though as you suggest in your earlier post. Nearly all the other countries with car industries do similar. Though there must be a limit to how many areas you can subsidise. I assume they must have some areas making good profits so they can do so.

  30. I note the challenge to Rudd was made on 23 June 2010. So by that time the second-half DD window had actually been open for weeks; during that time Rudd could have asked for a DD for July or August and been granted it unless there was sufficient evidence to unnerve the GG about whether Rudd still had confidence of his party. (Not sure in the absence of a challenge there would have been). Getting rid of Steven Fielding from the Senate a year early would by itself have been sufficient reason to do it! (Though that said, given GTV who knows what else could have replaced him.)

  31. ‘Liz Cheney is a RINO’

    😆 😆 😆

    Jeez, can’t you think of something more creative to call Liz Cheney that that if you’re going to try and denigrate her for daring to go against the Mango Mussolini? That RINO stuff is just tired. 😐

  32. Give the ideology of the folk that use the phrase, and the ideology of the folk they are targeting “RINO” would also comfortably cover the GOP’s three greatest Presidents: Lincoln, T Roosevelt and Eisenhower.

  33. I’ve always though that ‘the double dissolution plan’ that Rudd cogitated over summer and rejected in late January 2010 would have involved a DD in March of that year, and then a follow up election to reset the House with the half senate cycle in March-May 2012.

    Surely that was constitutionally feasible?

  34. With how far the Republicans have descended into crazy town in recent years, any sane person should wear the RINO label as a badge of honour.

    I also find it hilarious that Liz Cheney, who is deeply conservative in nearly every respect, is now considered a RINO purely because she refused the support an anti-democratic fascist.

  35. This is what the hard right in France is offering:

    [‘Their platform is staggering: slash immigration, ban Islamic head coverings in public, dial back renewable energy investment, lower inflation by rebating the VAT tax to consumers, expel foreigners who’ve been unemployed for more than a year, lower the retirement age back to 60, inaugurate a 20 billion euro national health plan, slash the VAT on energy to 5.5% from 20%, build six new nuclear generators and increase the security and justice budget by 1.5 billion euros a year.’]

    Sounds familiar. And will Macron’s cunning move to hold snap parliamentary elections work?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/12/opinions/france-macron-snap-election-far-right-andelman/index.html

  36. Mavis @5.12am. Along with the advent of the German BSW party, it’s more evidence that the old distinctions between “left”and “right” in politics are becoming increasingly meaningless.

    The two hottest political movements in the West in 2024 are:

    1. A radical far left whose constituency is almost entirely drawn from young people from the most affluent families.

    2. Populists who draw much of their support from blue collar people who traditionally voted for socisl democratic parties.

    The populists present a mix of left and right policies: anti-immigration, and pro law and order, but also pro a generous welfare system, especially for older people because older people on welfare are a big part of the populists’ support base. Ask Trump, who never has a word to say against pensions, Medicare, etc.

    Clearly another big element of all this is isolationism. I think the climate change denial is closely linked to this. The mindset is something like “I don’t give a stuff about Ukraine or global warming, just keep my welfare payments coming and get the criminals and Muslims off my street!”

    Looked at from this perspective, one of the root causes of the rise of populism is demographic: a dying gift from the less successful boomers to younger generations.

  37. I might add that we are so lucky in Australia that neither of the two political movements I have described have made much headway. Instead we have the rational and reasonable Teals, who have few equivalents other Western countries (perhaps Macron himself, sort of).

    We should be very thankful for compulsory preferential voting, which tends to rub the hard edges out of our politics.

  38. “Religious Freedom” file under freedom to be anything you want to be including a pedophile or racist or misogynist .. any wrongful act is ok so long as religious doctrine.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-school-parent-discovered-charlotte-was-gay-on-facebook-days-later-she-was-sacked-20240605-p5jjgp.html

    Her case will add to the pressure piling on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to scrap the rule.

    Labor promised to protect students before the last election and, in March, the Australian Law Reform Commission weighed in on years of debate to say schools should be stripped of their right to discriminate against LGBTQ students and staff.

    But Albanese has since shied away from the issue and threatened to shelve the government’s planned changes unless he could guarantee Coalition support, citing fears about a toxic debate. This is despite progressive crossbenchers and the Greens urging Labor to work with them instead to amend the law.

    If Albo wants to call an early election he needs to get his bollocks out of the bottom drawn & get them sewn on.

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