The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, the first such result since November and only the second for the term, closing a 52-48 lead in the last result three weeks ago. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33% while the Coalition is up two to 39%, its best result since August 2021, with the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation steady at 7%. Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has reportedly been cut since the last poll, in which he led when Anthony Albanese led 52-33, from nineteen points to eight, though we will have to wait on the exact results (UPDATE: Albanese’s lead is 46-38). Albanese is down four on approval to 43% with disapproval up three to 50%, while Dutton is up one to 39% and down one to 49%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1232.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Albanese: 46% (-6)
Dutton: 38% (+5)
Time for no more Mr Nice Guy and to fight fire with fire. Being Prime Minister these days isn’t a job for a statesman, it’s a job for a team captain who fights the opposing team into the ground until they are, dead, buried and cremated.
Although I do believe that Adam Giles’ silly ‘drone monitoring’ comment led to a perception of a ramshackle outfit.
Those PPM numbers are pretty alarming.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Mexicanbeemer at 9:32 pm
Thanks for the dick response but looking at the evidence it could point more to manslaughter than corruption since they knew their actions were causing deaths.
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I am sorry if you thought the response was dickish, but the question is an absurd one. It would be impossible to prove that any one person (or combination of persons) involved in the development of the policy caused the death of another, where the deceased took their own life.
Frankly, on the suggestion you’ve made, there’d have been a much better likelihood of Rudd or Garrett ending up in the docks for the pink batts scheme than for any politician or public servant doing so for Robodebt. And that is an absurd proposition.
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The pink batts one certainly is. Private operators were the ones responsible for their workers safety there. While the robodebt was being done by a Government department. It was Government departments that were authorising debt collector heavies to knock on peoples door and intimidate them for debts they didn’t owe. It is not surprising some very vulnerable people felt suicide was their only way out of it.
Thanks.
Stinker @ #4 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 9:51 pm
Peter Dutton projects strength and commitment, even if his policies are the wrong ones. He’s also got his echo chamber working in sync with him.
Anthony Albanese has to start fighting fire with fire and not let Peter Dutton set the agenda. And if Dutton tries, then he has to shoot him down like a kamikaze pilot.
I would add though that the poll was conducted from Monday to Friday, giving people little time to react to Dutton’s stated aim to take Australia out of the Paris Accords.
Which gets me back to my earlier point. Anthony Albanese has to let go of the reigns a little bit. He’s holding them too tight and not allowing his best performers to go out and heckle and hound the Opposition. Like the Opposition do to the government. Every. Single. Day.
WTF!!!
Entropy at 9.55pm
The pink batts one certainly is. Private operators were the ones responsible for their workers safety there. While the robodebt was being done by a Government department. It was Government departments that were authorising debt collector heavies to knock on peoples door and intimidate them for debts they didn’t owe. It is not surprising some very vulnerable people felt suicide was their only way out of it.
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It’s the same principle, though, and there are fewer causal hypotheses to get from the pink batts policy to the deaths, than from Robodebt to the suicides. But the point is that suggesting that the deaths of any related to either scheme can be sheeted home to the policy makers is ridiculous.
Stinker
It’s the same principle, though, and there are fewer causal hypotheses to get from the pink batts policy to the deaths, than from Robodebt to the suicides. But the point is that suggesting that the deaths of any related to either scheme can be sheeted home to the policy makers is ridiculous.
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It might sound ridiculous but if the policy makers were aware their actions were causing deaths and they had advise warning their policy was illegal but they continued with it then maybe those deaths constitute manslaughter.
Dan Andrews and Mark McGowan top the honours list.
Simon Crean honoured posthumously.
The right wing haters will go feral.
I love it.
Mexicanbeemer at 10.04pm
It might sound ridiculous but if the policy makers were aware their actions were causing deaths and they had advise warning their policy was illegal but they continued with it then maybe those deaths constitute manslaughter.
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No, they simply don’t constitute manslaughter. It cannot satisfy the legal elements of manslaughter.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 10:00 pm
Entropy at 9.55pm
The pink batts one certainly is. Private operators were the ones responsible for their workers safety there. While the robodebt was being done by a Government department. It was Government departments that were authorising debt collector heavies to knock on peoples door and intimidate them for debts they didn’t owe. It is not surprising some very vulnerable people felt suicide was their only way out of it.
——————-
It’s the same principle, though, and there are fewer causal hypotheses to get from the pink batts policy to the deaths, than from Robodebt to the suicides. But the point is that suggesting that the deaths of any related to either scheme can be sheeted home to the policy makers is ridiculous.
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If you can show someone was intimidated by debt collecting heavies for a debt they didn’t owe. Then latter took their own life. I think under industrial manslaughter laws you would have a case against the Government Department at least. Applying to which individuals within the Department were actually culpable would be much harder. These laws do allow just the company being charged. So i don’t see why the Department couldn’t be also. Though the fine imposed would just go back to Government coffers. So in someways it would be pointless. I think probably family members taking the Government Department to the civil courts would be more likely the way to prosecute this one though.
Entropy at 10.10pm
If you can show someone was intimidated by debt collecting heavies for a debt they didn’t owe. Then latter took their own life. I think under industrial manslaughter laws you would have a case against the Government Department at least.
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Your hypothesis falls down right there. Industrial manslaughter laws are premised on a duty being owed by an employer to an employee. That is not the case with those affected by Robodebt. There would simply be no statutory basis to bring manslaughter charges.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 10:16 pm
Entropy at 10.10pm
If you can show someone was intimidated by debt collecting heavies for a debt they didn’t owe. Then latter took their own life. I think under industrial manslaughter laws you would have a case against the Government Department at least.
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Your hypothesis falls down right there. Industrial manslaughter laws are premised on a duty being owed by an employer to an employee. That is not the case with those affected by Robodebt. There would simply be no statutory basis to bring manslaughter charges.
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It includes contractors as well. Whether the courts would consider centrelink clients to fit within that definition i don’t know?.
As i said previously the families are probably best to sue via the civil courts. If justice does not prevail via the current judicial systems still investigating it.
Entropy at 10.22pm
It includes contractors as well. Whether the courts would consider centrelink clients to fit within that definition i don’t know?.
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I do know – the courts would not find Centrelink clients are contractors. Words in legislation have and are to be given meaning. A welfare recipient is not a contractor to Centrelink.
You are correct that the avenue for any further redress is the civil system. Which brings me back to the very original point I made in response to Mexicanbeemer’s question – dealing with Robodebt is not the domain of the criminal law.
I do not think many Australians cares about the Paris accord. Most countries will not get there anyway especially China and US.
People are more worried about power prices and cost of living. Why are we not using coal when it is much cheaper?
China is now buying more coal then ever from Australia at much cheaper prices and much bigger quantity then they ever had. While we artificially inflate our power prices and indirectly making all our goods and services more expensive. (Inflation) China is thanking us and increasing their coal usage and increasing their CO2 emition and getting cheaper electricity to power their goods and service.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 10:28 pm
Entropy at 10.22pm
It includes contractors as well. Whether the courts would consider centrelink clients to fit within that definition i don’t know?.
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I do know – the courts wont find Centrelink clients are contractors. Words in legislation have meaning.
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They do but they are always open to interpretation. Centrelinks main problem is for dole payments. They do require their clients to preform certain tasks, such as apply for a certain amount of jobs a fortnight. How the courts view this requirement, before being eligible for a payment, could be interesting. Is it a form of contract with Centrelink?.
@Dovif at 10:29pm
That may be because most of Australia’s coal power plants are getting too old and need to be replaced. And since they’ve mostly been privatised, their owners don’t think it will be profitable for them to replace them with new coal power plants, so they’re not doing that. In fact they need huge government subsidies to keep on running for another few years.
Being in Goverment is hard. Brace ourselves
Trumpist populist rhetoric starting to infect voters in Australia with Dutton channelling it with the help of the MSM. It wont end well if punters think theyre going to better off under it.
Entropy says:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 10:34 pm
They do but are it is always open to interpretation. Centrelinks main problem is for dole payments. They do require their clients to preform certain tasks such as apply for a certain amount of jobs a fortnight. How the courts view this requirement before being eligible for a payment could be interesting. Is it a form of contract with Centrelink?.
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It is not a contract. It is a statutory scheme. It lacks the requisite elements of being a contract. There is no consideration given by the welfare recipient. “There are certain obligations that arise for us to give you money” is not a contract.
How the courts view it would not be interesting. No lawyer worth their salt would be silly enough to run an argument that a Centrelink customer is a contractor. If they did and their claim was inevitably summarily dismissed, they may have a costs order made against them personally and on an indemnity basis, so doomed to fail would their argument be.
Labor down, Greens below average, big move in PPM to Dutton. Looks to me like a bit of a more right leaning sample for Newspoll. That said, Labor need to get back on the front foot, now.
Meanwhile China is building new coal fired plant every year that produces more power than the total need of Australia.
Coal is cheaper than solar and wind. Especially if you take into account the cost of producing base load power which solar and wind cannot do.
New Coal power plants are also more efficient than the current ones we have and emits less carbon. The problem is no one will build them unless they know that they will be operational for the next 20-50 years.
@steve davis at 10:39pm
Yeah that’s true. Repetition is one of the best methods of convincing peoples’ mindsets that “this is natural and must therefore be so” so the constant repetition whenever the average person turns on the TV or looks at a newspaper either physically online and all they see is “LABOR IS SHIT” then that’s the narrative that they’ll lean towards, whether or not it’s true.
The usual shit about immigration/asylum seekers and climate change fuelling the punters again. When will the punters ever learn to live in the 21st century? There will still be thousands of migrants under Dutton and if energy policy goes back to the 50s then Australia will be left behind economically as well.
Looks like the ongoing issues with immigration and Giles have had an impact. Too many convictions in a short period of time.
Just watched the first episode of Eric on Netflix.
Worth watching!
Kirksdarke
I agree. Plant the seed and just keep repeating. Punters too apathetic to see whats the truth and what isnt. Only have to look at the UKs track record of voting Conservative and the state that they are in now because of it.
Not concerned in the least by the latest.
LNP have a lot of work getting back lost seats!
Labor just needs to keep on cruising and doing the great job they have been doing so far.
Off to bed soon and will not lose a wink of sleep.
Cheers all!
Simple solution for Labor, cut migration and stop talking about the middle east (nobody cares).
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-needs-to-end-the-migration-surge-but-these-cuts-are-not-enough-20231211-p5eqhe.html
I agree with you wholeheartedly on those couple of points, Bizzcam.
I look forward to Scott’s commentary.
Unelectable?
Q: Simple solution for Labor, cut migration and stop talking about the middle east (nobody cares).
Its not Labor talking about the Middle East- its Dutton and his whole team that cant shut up about Israel. Just look at QT…
There’s a report in the Daily Telegraph on a RedBridge state poll for New South Wales, seemingly not online yet, which combines survey waves from February and May, like their recent Victorian and Queensland results. Primary votes are Labor 35%, Coalition 40%, Greens 11%, with Labor leading only 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred.
Dovif @ #18 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 10:29 pm
This sort of misinformation put about by easily-influenced, ill-informed individuals, is just the sort of thing the government is up against. Not to mention what is being pushed at them by bad actors who know better because it suits their bank balance and lust for power.
Entropy @ #19 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 10:34 pm
Obviously you’ve never had to rely on Centrelink to find you a job because the answer is, yes you have to sign a legally-binding contract with the Job Provider in order to continue to receive payments.
Some good polling news via Simon Rosenberg:
‘Happy Sunday all. I don’t often post on Sundays, but had some encouraging news to share so sending along a quick one.
Encouraging New Biden Polls – There are now three new polls showing modest movement toward Biden:
New York Times – Biden gains 2 points since April/May
Yahoo/YouGov – Biden is up 46-44, a gain of 2 points. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months”
CBS News/YouGov – Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead in the battleground states
It has been our core argument here for many months that as voters engaged, and came to understand the choice of Biden successful and good President vs. Trump the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, things would improve for us. It’s been my view that it was likely Trump’s thundering guilty verdict would move the election a bit towards Biden, but that it would take a while as voters needed time to process the news. So while most of the polling this first-week post-felony verdict continued to find a toss-up race with little movement, that we now have a series of polls showing Biden making gains is notable and encouraging.
Murdoch’s team went into overdrive defending Trump this week. The intensity of their efforts suggests they are seeing this movement and erosion in their internal polling.’
News out of Israel – War cabinet has collapsed as Benny Gantz quits.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-10/israeli-minister-benny-gantz-resigns-from-netanyahu-government/103957800
It’s pretty simple: when you don’t look like you’re completely in charge of things, the public begins to lose confidence in you.
Labor doesn’t need to “get on the front foot” and attack the Opposition more. I also don’t believe the Middle East situation is all that significant.
What Labor needs to do is to look more in control and stop stuffing up. Giles should be replaced over the winter recess because he doesn’t look like he’s in control. If I were Albo, I’d think about Dreyfus too: perhaps it’s time for an ambassadorship somewhere. The rest of the ministry is doing ok IMO.
No need to start panicking. They just need to lift their collective performance a bit.
Labor has lost no ground 33% , Federal lib/nats combined primary vote seems to be a outliner
Cant see the greens vote going to the federal lib/nats
Propaganda newspoll this one the lib/nats propaganda media unit went hard and didnt really get the result they were after , Labor primary vote never decline below 30%
What ? No budget bounce? I cannot believe it.
I agree with Meher, everything is fine – no need to panic. Carry On.
Bravo Scott. When others lose their heads you have the courage to Carry On.
Lars Von Trier
Labor’s primary vote is around 2022 federal election level , so i would call that steady , federal government would take that after the budget
Lars Von Trier
What happen to the Labor below 30’s
You know the federal lib/nats combined primary vote is likely a outliner in this newspoll
Macron calls early election – not Presidential, just the French parliament. But portends are not good…
President Emmanuel Macron of France, battered by a crushing defeat to the extreme right in European elections, dissolved the lower house of Parliament on Sunday and called for legislative elections beginning on June 30.
His decision, announced in a television broadcast to the nation, was a measure of the devastating nature of the European Parliament election result, which gave the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and her wildly popular protégé, Jordan Bardella, about 31.5 percent of the vote, to about 15.2 percent for Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party. It became the leading party in France by some distance.
“The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation and for Europe,” Mr. Macron said. “After this day I cannot go on as though nothing has happened.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/09/world/europe/france-european-elections.html
#weatheronPB
The silky-smooth sky,
arches proud and clear, and yet,
there’s no warmth in it.
LVT: “I agree with Meher, everything is fine – no need to panic. Carry On.”
I didn’t say everything was fine. If the government has more weeks like the last week of May, then there will be good reason to panic. And even more so if – as looks quite possible – the economy turns sour over the next few months.
But, at present, I think there is still ample time to steady the ship. What the government doesn’t want to do is to wear itself out attacking Dutton – which just makes him look relevant – or, worse still, decide that the way to win back the public is to start telling them how grateful they should be for the tax cuts and all the other wonderful things Albo has done for them.
After almost five decades of observing politics from all sorts of vantage points, I have concluded that the main thing – perhaps the only thing – that matters is that a government looks like it knows what it’s doing and is control of the situation. That’s why Biden is struggling so badly. It’s why the Hawke Government held on in 1990 in diabolical economic circumstances and why the electorate wouldn’t have a bar of Hewson.
The Albo Government isn’t looking terrifically steady at the moment, but the situation is retrievable. I haven’t seen any odds lately, but I would assume that the bookies would still have them as favourites to be returned to office. Of course this might be as a minority government. But government is government.