New South Wales election minus one day

Campaign scuttlebutt and private polling snippets as the finishing post comes into view.

Newspoll will presumably be with us later today – for now, the news media relates the following:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Coalition “has all but written off the prospect of forming a majority but sees a best-case scenario where it wins the new seat of Leppington in south-west Sydney, fends off the teals in the north and can cobble together enough support from independents to form minority government”. Labor sources are “bemused by the government’s campaign tactics in the final days, with Perrottet visiting reasonably safe Liberal seats such as South Coast, Camden, Ryde and Drummoyne”. Both parties consider the situation unclear due to “a large cohort of undecided voters, a degree of ‘softness’ among those who are leaning one way or another, and the unpredictability of optional preferential voting”.

• As reported on Sky News yesterday, the day before and on Tuesday, polling that was apparently conducted for the Minerals Council Australia shows the Liberals leading 51-49 ahead in Penrith and 59-41 in Winston Hills; Labor leading 52-48 in Leppington and 53-47 in Goulburn; a 50-50 contest between the Liberals and independent Michael Regan in Wakehurst; teal independent Helen Conway leading the Liberals 54-46 in North Shore; and Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward leading Labor 53-47 in Kiama (which probably should be higher going off the primary votes), with the Liberals a very distant third. Some issues with the polling should be noted: parties who weren’t running in the seats in question were offered as response options, and respondents were seemingly primed to respond negatively on Matt Kean’s performance by being asked if they “agree that (he) is responsible for pushing up energy prices”. The result in Kean’s own seat of Hornsby had him leading just 53-47, a swing of 14%. One Nation were consistently credited with strong results, peaking at 17% in Penrith and 15% in Hornsby, where they respectively polled 7.2% and 4.5% in 2019. The polls seemingly covered several other seats as well, so there may be more to come.

• Stephen Rice of The Australian reports Liberal sources believe the party’s determination to bar Gareth Ward from parliament if he retains Kiama as an independent has boosted his local support, with one quoted citing resentment at being “told what to do or who they can vote for”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

221 comments on “New South Wales election minus one day”

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  3. Troy’s either seen Newspoll or he’s seen some private polling, otherwise not sure what else you can base his tweet on.

  4. @Evan – or you can also follow the vibe. Which has been my approach since the 2019 Federal.

    This lot has felt done for a while – the question by whom and to what extent.

    But Troy is fundamentally a wuss, so… assume he’s got some intel.

  5. Lol. I’m blocked by Troy Bramston on Twitter. 😆

    And I have never even tried to follow him or comment on any of his Tweets!

    I think that makes me famous, or infamous. 😉

  6. “ The similarity is FriendlyJordies and Sky are both preaching to the converted.”

    This is actually dead wrong.

    Jordie is huge amongst millennials, who are more likely than not to have an inbuilt Greens bias. He gives them an ‘adult’ ALP alternative to consider. He also introduces them to a whole heap of stuff they may not otherwise consider. He now has over one million followers, and after the firebombing incident, since coming back to You Tube the number of views of his videos has doubled.

  7. C@t – I hope your bloke does well in Terrigal, he had Gordon Reid doing prepoll with him today, saw that on Facebook.
    Can we start making some seat predictions?
    Here’s mine, which will no doubt be completely wrong(about as bad as my footy tipping):
    Labor holds the 38 seats they’ve got already, that includes Heathcote and Leppington, Labor gains Parramatta, Ryde, East Hills, Riverstone, Goulburn. That would get them to 43.
    Liberals will lose to independents Willoughby, Pittwater, Wakehurst and Wollindilly.
    Nationals hold all their seats but don’t gain anything off the now ex Shooters Party MPs – Helen Dalton for instance retains Murray.
    Note I’m hesitant about Penrith and Holsworthy and Oatley, I suspect they all stay Liberal but not by much.
    And I think Gareth Ward retains Kiama, and then 6 months later, they are forced to a byelection.
    That overall would mean a Labor minority government – 43 seats for Labor would give Minns a few avenues to set up a government via the crossbench.

  8. The sleeper seat could be Monaro, and I’ll put Terrigal in there for C@tmomma if the swing against the Libs on the Central Coast is rather big.

  9. It’s interesting that Murdoch’s rags seem to be reluctant to make an official endorsement for the NSW election.

    Compare that to the Victorian election last year when they were all happy to toot for the Coalition, while it was 9-Fairfax that was umm-ing and ahh-ing, to the point that the Sunday Age and Guardian made no endorsements, where only The Age endorsed Labor.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Victorian_state_election#Newspaper_endorsements

    Did the Daily Telegraph, AFR and The Australian seriously make no endorsements this time around?

  10. I’m a millennial (albeit a geriatric one) but the idea FriendlyJordies is some kind of Pied Piper just isn’t the case.

    The people I know who watch/listen/care are already are locked in to the progressive side of things.

    That’s not taking anything away from him – but this place seems to be WAY more into him than anyone my age or younger.

  11. Not a disciple of Friendly Jordies either, to be frank, even though he’s on my side of politics.
    But each to their own!

    Perrottett wasting his time in Kogarah this afternoon, when he should be in his own seat instead, where the Labor candidate is waging a great campaign and could well take some paint off Dom’s 11% margin in Epping tomorrow.

  12. “That’s not taking anything away from him – but this place seems to be WAY more into him than anyone my age or younger.”

    I think older ALP fans like the idea of an ALP millennial whisperer lol.

    I’m an older millennial and know plenty of millennial progressives… and none of them listen to him. Sure he has fans and some influence but there are plenty of ways to get political information and views nowadays.

  14. wow troy and searing insight:
    “Finally, I doubt this will be a uniform election as seats fall in line with the pendulum. Both major parties could win seats with big margins and hold seats with small margins. Sydney very geographically/demographically diverse.”
    https://twitter.com/TroyBramston/status/16391482615661895
    Deep and considered punditry that could only have been written by, well, any adult with a functioning brain who has seen an election……

  15. Every election features unexpected seat wins / losses.
    Every election features unexpected seat retentions.
    Most seats go more or less as expected, with the general swing.

  16. It is no surprise to the well informed that the fine folk of Mosman are concerned about the cost of living.
    The value of the dollar compared to the Euro has fallen by ~7.5% since the last federal election.
    The price of champagne is simply dreadful.

    Nevertheless, I predict an ALP majority.

  20. “ The people I know who watch/listen/care are already are locked in to the progressive side of things.”

    You are missing the point. In NSW, we have optional preferential voting. In 2011, 2015 and 2019 Green voters exhausted at a 60%, and nearly all of that would likely have flown back to labor under a compulsory preferential system. In 2019, that factor alone cost labor seats, probably enough seats top cost them a shot at minority government.

    Jordie states the case for voting labor. so, even amongst ‘progressive millennials’ this may well be enough to get them to fill out all their ballot paper (and hence preference labor) even if they don’t switch their primary vote (but if they do switch their primary vote from green to labor – to ‘make it count’ against the LNP ‘to vote them out’ – well that would be even bigger).

    So, no – he isn’t ‘preaching to the converted’ (which was your first point to which I was responding)- he’s actually trying to influence young people to switch to a more mainstream … arguably ‘centrist’ … party.

  21. “ The similarity is FriendlyJordies and Sky are both preaching to the converted.”

    Speaking of those 2, Sky News is literally just a faction of LNP day because Friendly Jordies has been able to cut through News Corps fake concern over free speech and not being politically correct.

  24. “ I just completely disagree with the idea he’s influential to a significant degree.”

    On that … I simply dont know. …although he did pursue Bruz in a way that no MSM journo would, despite the role he played in terrible land clearing laws, brumby protection laws, spiv developer deals in Sydney (a long way from Queanbeyan), his family debt trapping the local Queanbeyan Italian club and so on. That took guts and it probaly terminated a career of a bloke that makes Eddie and Macca look like angels (but i guess, as justice Rares would have us believe, we should weep for him … FFS …).

    But Jordan HAS an audience. That audience is more likely than not to have an inbuilt Millennial ‘Greens’ bias, but he talks to them directly about an alternative … and his audience keeps growing … so … perhaps he is actually ‘an influencer’ .. for real.

  25. ”Did the Daily Telegraph, AFR and The Australian seriously make no endorsements this time around?”

    There’s nothing obvious on the Australian and Telegraph landing pages. In the Tele, Vicki Campion posted an article that seems to be predicting doom and gloom if Labor wins, plus what look like anti-Labor rants from a couple of the usual suspects. The front page is a sort of State Election as Grand Final splash. It appears to be even-handed.

    Meanwhile, the landing page Australian has 74 articles on the horrors that await if the Voice gets up.

    But I’d have to pay to read any of the articles. I’ve got better things to spend my money on.

  26. In my view, Friendlyjordies differs from Sky News in that in almost every video, he cites his sources, and follows up on them.

    I’ve watched some “Sky News After Dark” shows and they simply read out the lies, and at the most cherry pick out-of-context quotes to back them up.

    In his serious videos, Jordan gives reliable receipts for what he says, from peer-reviewed journals to articles written by the MSM itself. Also, his Chaser-style comedy holds the viewers’ attention. And, if he messes up somewhere, he follows it up with clarity.

    A memorable example was when he set up a table in a safe Liberal electorate with the sign “Nuclear Power Sucks, Change My Mind.” and one of the volunteers to debate him turned out to be a lobbyist from the fossil fuel industry, which he outed in a later video.

    Also, Jordan appeals to a portion of the electorate that are like “eh, doesn’t matter who I vote for, it’s all crap anyway” and at least sways some of them to be like “Wait, this guy has a point.” Will it be enough to win Labor a majority? That could be proven right or wrong tomorrow.

  28. Just a quick question so I can syncronise my watch (I could Google but you bunch are my go to) – is the odious Daylight Saving still occurring in NSW or have you switched back to Queensland time? I’m always unsure when it starts and ends.

  30. Kirsdarke says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:17 pm

    @Upnorth

    Yes, NSW is still currently in DST until 2 April
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks cobber. 2pm close of booths up here then. Bloody hot at the moment so I will do my walk in the morning and get some beers ready for the arvo. come what may.

  31. The Sydney Morning Herald is a discredited publication, as Keating said. Firstly China is going to invade Australia within 3 years now it’s endorsed the corrupt NSW L/NP government. This so-called “masthead” is on the way out.

  33. Booth Captain C@t here! 7am to god knows when tomorrow night. Scrutineering then an after party! Phew!

    I’ll be on my phone though when I can to get updates and taking photos of Democracy Dogs. 😀

  34. ”
    Upnorthsays:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:23 pm
    Kirsdarke says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:17 pm

    @Upnorth

    Yes, NSW is still currently in DST until 2 April
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks cobber. 2pm close of booths up here then. Bloody hot at the moment so I will do my walk in the morning and get some beers ready for the arvo. come what may.
    ”

    And make them cold. 🙂

  35. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:46 pm
    Booth Captain C@t here! 7am to god knows when tomorrow night. Scrutineering then an after party! Phew!

    I’ll be on my phone though when I can to get updates and taking photos of Democracy Dogs.
    ”

    But booths open at 8 am.

  36. SMH quoting a senior Liberal as saying that the election has been a ‘train wreck’ for them. And this is the day before. Imagine what it will be like the day after!

    Plus they have grabbed a photo of Perrottet and Ayres looking like a couple of crook chooks in Penrith.

    Aaron newton, you may be getting a new Local Member!

  38. 98.6 says
    PBs, tell us who you know will win the NSW election this Saturday.
    No ifs, buts, maybes, provisos, depends on, etc etc.
    Time is running out to have your ‘VOICE’ heard.
    Labor will win OR Coalition will win.

    NOT WHO YOU VOTED FOR or WHO YOU WILL VOTE FOR but WHO WILL WIN.

    Results for Labor will win, so far:
    98.6
    Mick Quinlivan
    MABWM
    Desie (Minority)
    Malcolm
    Scott (Majority)
    Newcastle Moderate (Minority)
    Ven (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour (Thin Majority)
    Melbourne Mammoth (Minority)
    Evan (Minority)
    Outside Left (Majority)
    Pol Night (Minority)
    Leftie Brawler (Majority 1-4 seats)
    citizen (Minority)
    Historyintime (Minority)
    ChrisfromEdgecliff (Majority)
    Mr Mysterious (Majority)
    Griff (Majority)
    Granny Annie (Majority)
    Terminator (Minority hoping for Majority)
    Quasor
    Kelta (Majority by 3 seats)
    Socrates (Majority)
    Freemoney (Minority)
    Nathana (Majority of 6)
    PuffyTMD
    jt1983 (Minority or Majority)
    MadHouse (Majority small)
    Fargo61 (Majority)
    Boerwar (Majority)
    subgeometer
    MixedMemberMuddle (Minority)
    clem attee (Majority)
    Bob Lynch (Minority)
    Aqualung (A win) (70 seats?)
    Conor
    C@tmomma (working for it on Sat)
    Page Boi (Minority)
    frednk (based on press behavour)
    Mick (Slim Majority)
    agoo44 (Majority but less than 4)
    The Banana Republic (Majority small)
    S. Simpson (Minority)

    Results for Coalition will win, so far:
    sprocket (Minority)
    Poliphili (Minority)
    Hugoaugogo ( Hoping to be proven wrong)

    Sitting on the fence:
    Lars Von Trier (Minns to lose) (Waiting on Newspoll)
    Kirsdarke (Waiting on Newspoll)

    Intruders:
    Joe Hilderbrand (Labor)

    Apologies if I’ve missed someone or put someone in the wrong column.
    But you can add your name to the lists or change your opinion, (like Aqualung did from sitting on the fence),up to 6 PM AEDT on Saturday 25th March when our polling booth will close.
    After this time, no posts (postals) will be accepted or added to the lists.

  39. C@tmomma: after the glowing endorsement of Dom by Bevan Lee in today’s Herald, I will laugh if they have to report on Sunday morning a defeat for their boy Perrottett.
    Weirdly enough the Daily Tele this time has been a bit more even handed.

    I think if anything has hurt the Libs this week, it is the revelation about Mrs Perrottett getting a priority ambulance via the intercession of Brad Hazzard.

  40. outside left,
    You’re down south coast way, aren’t you? If so, a senior Liberal has told the SMH that they believe that they are maybe going to lose the seat of South Coast tomorrow!

    Plus, Riverstone, East Hills, Paramatta, Penrith and Ryde. With concerns for Willoughby and North Shore!

  44. Albo was in Riverstone today so Labor must have hopes there too. I think the Libs were worried about Parramatta weeks ago. Interestingly if 2022 voting patterns for the federal election were replicated in the equivalent state seats tomorrow, the Libs would lose all the seats C@t has mentioned above + Monaro and Drummoyne too.

  46. Barclay McGain back in the Liberal fold..

    It was understood Mr McGain was sacked over a video that likened student activist Drew Pavlou with Adolf Hitler, along with a separate photo – which Brisbane Times has chosen not to share – of himself posing with a figurine depicting an offensive African-American caricature.

    Mr McGain shared the photo last year but denied authoring the caption.

    “The photo of the object on December 4th was taken at my step-father’s house, himself a proud Aboriginal man. The item is a money box and was purchased by my stepfather along with other antiques likely many years ago during a local swap-meet at the Mudgeeraba Showgrounds on the Gold Coast,” he said.

    “The photo was taken, without any caption, to convey the irony of myself being cast in the media as someone who ‘disrespects Indigenous culture’ when, in reality, I’d grown up over the past 12 years, with an Aboriginal stepfather, who always respected and honoured his Indigenous heritage.”

    Mr McGain quit the LNP on Thursday but said he would “continue to be involved in political, cultural and political affairs and voicing my opinion, like any person should”.

    “I’d encourage anyone to voice their opinion, regardless of what that may be,” he said.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/former-young-lnp-chair-fired-from-political-staffer-job-over-racist-posts-20200611-p551r8.html

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office has raised concerns with Brisbane-based LNP backbencher Andrew Laming about the actions of a staffer who shared an image of himself posing as a divisive US teen who shot dead two Black Lives Matter protesters.

    Barclay McGain, a former Gold Coast Young LNP chairman and now electorate officer for the Bowman MP, was previously sacked from the taxpayer-funded position for his role in a controversial 2019 schoolies video from the youth branch featuring comments belittling Indigenous Australians.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/pm-s-office-flags-options-with-laming-after-staffer-s-teen-shooter-pic-20211208-p59fwp.html

  47. Barclay McGain channeling US black lives murderer Karl Rittenhouse…

    And today…

    Campaigning for Tim James in Willoughby, with a walk on role from Dom..

  49. I heard 59-41 and the Liberals are busing in Young Liberals into Epping – they’ve heard the same talk as LeftieBrawler about a 15% primary swing being on , and they’re trying to save Perrotet from losing his seat as Premier.

  50. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:44 pm
    _______________________
    Who’s your tip for fatest MP after the election? You’ve always had an unhealthy interest in matters pork.

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