Newspoll: 54.5-45.5 to Labor in NSW

Newspoll concludes the NSW election campaign with a poll suggesting Labor well placed to form government with a majority in its own right.

The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.

UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

222 comments on “Newspoll: 54.5-45.5 to Labor in NSW”

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  1. Bellwether says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 4:05 pm
    With Perrottet’s Opus Dei background he’ll probably enjoy a good whipping.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Best joke ever today !
    You were joking, weren’t you?

  2. Here’s my totally optimistic prediction:
    ALP 50
    Coalition 34
    Independents/Greens 9

    Yes, I must have drunk some of Andrew Earlwood’s kool aid or some of Leftiebrawler’s beer LOL

  3. Evan says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:48 pm

    Sky News has spent the past hour trashing Matt Kean, very amusing!
    I told ya all he’s hated in Murdoch land and on 2GB.
    ==========================================
    Well if they are doing the preemptive strike on him becoming opposition leader the exit polls might be very bad indeed….

  4. I know this much, if Matt Kean becomes Liberal leader in NSW, Sky News and 2GB and some of the right of the Liberal Party will go apeshit, and in that case, pass me the popcorn.

  5. 98.6says:

    PBs told us who they know will win the NSW election tonight.
    No ifs, buts, maybes, provisos, depends on, etc etc.
    Your voice has been heard, seen and listed.
    The question was, ‘With everything you know about politics, who will win, Labor or Coalition’?

    NOT WHO YOU VOTED FOR but WHO WILL WIN.

    Results for Labor will win:
    98.6
    Mick Quinlivan
    MABWM
    Desie (Minority)
    Malcolm
    Scott (Majority)
    Newcastle Moderate (Minority)
    Ven (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour (Thin Majority)
    Melbourne Mammoth (Minority)
    Evan (Minority)
    Outside Left (Majority)
    Pol Night (Minority)
    Leftie Brawler (Majority 1-4 seats)
    citizen (Minority)
    Historyintime (Minority)
    ChrisfromEdgecliff (Majority)
    Mr Mysterious (Majority)
    Griff (Majority)
    Granny Annie (Majority)
    Terminator (Minority hoping for Majority)
    Quasor
    Kelta (Majority by 3 seats)
    Socrates (Majority)
    Freemoney (Minority)
    Nathana (Majority of 6)
    PuffyTMD
    jt1983 (Minority or Majority)
    MadHouse (Majority small)
    Fargo61 (Majority)
    Boerwar (Majority)
    subgeometer
    MixedMemberMuddle (Minority)
    clem attee (Majority)
    Bob Lynch (Minority)
    Aqualung (A win) (70 seats?)
    Conor
    C@tmomma (worked for it on Sat)
    Page Boi (Minority)
    frednk (based on press behavour)
    Mick (Slim Majority)
    agoo44 (Majority but less than 4)
    The Banana Republic (Majority small)
    S. Simpson (Minority)
    The Apostate Stooge
    Steve777 (Minority)
    BT Says (Majority)
    yabba (Minority)
    Lars Von Trier (Majority)
    Kirsdarke
    Bird of Paradox (Hello Premier Minns)
    Donut (Majority)
    Dr Doolittle (Majority by women)
    Cronus (Majority)
    Oliver Sutton (Labor Premier)
    Macca RB (Minority to Majority by 1 or 2)
    Henry
    Hugoaugogo (Majority on 48)
    Rex Douglas (Labor in the bag)

    Results for Coalition will win:
    sprocket (Minority)
    Poliphili (Minority)

    Apologies if I’ve missed someone or put someone in the wrong column.

  6. Just saved the Champagne from freezing in the freezer.
    Upgraded from French bubbly to Champagne for such a very important night.

  7. Socratessays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:30 pm
    On Twitter it is “Antony Green Day”.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………
    I Like The Boy.
    Apologies to the late Bert Newton.

  8. Hi, 98.6

    My prediction is at 9.02 am this morning, for what it is worth but not worried about absence from your list.
    Thank goodness you rescued the champers.

  9. Big win for Albanese. Big loss for Dutton. Big nothingburger for Bandt. Big nothingburger for Littleproud. Big nothingburger for the Teals.

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