The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.
UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.
Bellwether says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 4:05 pm
With Perrottet’s Opus Dei background he’ll probably enjoy a good whipping.
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Best joke ever today !
You were joking, weren’t you?
Bleugh!
Sky News has spent the past hour trashing Matt Kean, very amusing!
I told ya all he’s hated in Murdoch land and on 2GB.
Booth Captain C@tmomma – how did you go today working for your mighty candidate?
OK, late seat prediction from me:
ALP 48
LNP 39
Ind 3
GRN 2
Here’s hoping!
Here’s my totally optimistic prediction:
ALP 50
Coalition 34
Independents/Greens 9
Yes, I must have drunk some of Andrew Earlwood’s kool aid or some of Leftiebrawler’s beer LOL
Evan says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:48 pm
Sky News has spent the past hour trashing Matt Kean, very amusing!
I told ya all he’s hated in Murdoch land and on 2GB.
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Well if they are doing the preemptive strike on him becoming opposition leader the exit polls might be very bad indeed….
Good luck everyone!
I know this much, if Matt Kean becomes Liberal leader in NSW, Sky News and 2GB and some of the right of the Liberal Party will go apeshit, and in that case, pass me the popcorn.
Penny Sharpe managing expectations.
On Twitter it is “Antony Green Day”.
Just getting warmed up 😉
98.6says:
PBs told us who they know will win the NSW election tonight.
No ifs, buts, maybes, provisos, depends on, etc etc.
Your voice has been heard, seen and listed.
The question was, ‘With everything you know about politics, who will win, Labor or Coalition’?
NOT WHO YOU VOTED FOR but WHO WILL WIN.
Results for Labor will win:
98.6
Mick Quinlivan
MABWM
Desie (Minority)
Malcolm
Scott (Majority)
Newcastle Moderate (Minority)
Ven (Minority)
Voice Endeavour (Thin Majority)
Melbourne Mammoth (Minority)
Evan (Minority)
Outside Left (Majority)
Pol Night (Minority)
Leftie Brawler (Majority 1-4 seats)
citizen (Minority)
Historyintime (Minority)
ChrisfromEdgecliff (Majority)
Mr Mysterious (Majority)
Griff (Majority)
Granny Annie (Majority)
Terminator (Minority hoping for Majority)
Quasor
Kelta (Majority by 3 seats)
Socrates (Majority)
Freemoney (Minority)
Nathana (Majority of 6)
PuffyTMD
jt1983 (Minority or Majority)
MadHouse (Majority small)
Fargo61 (Majority)
Boerwar (Majority)
subgeometer
MixedMemberMuddle (Minority)
clem attee (Majority)
Bob Lynch (Minority)
Aqualung (A win) (70 seats?)
Conor
C@tmomma (worked for it on Sat)
Page Boi (Minority)
frednk (based on press behavour)
Mick (Slim Majority)
agoo44 (Majority but less than 4)
The Banana Republic (Majority small)
S. Simpson (Minority)
The Apostate Stooge
Steve777 (Minority)
BT Says (Majority)
yabba (Minority)
Lars Von Trier (Majority)
Kirsdarke
Bird of Paradox (Hello Premier Minns)
Donut (Majority)
Dr Doolittle (Majority by women)
Cronus (Majority)
Oliver Sutton (Labor Premier)
Macca RB (Minority to Majority by 1 or 2)
Henry
Hugoaugogo (Majority on 48)
Rex Douglas (Labor in the bag)
Results for Coalition will win:
sprocket (Minority)
Poliphili (Minority)
Apologies if I’ve missed someone or put someone in the wrong column.
Has SportsBet paid out on a Labor win yet?
Just saved the Champagne from freezing in the freezer.
Upgraded from French bubbly to Champagne for such a very important night.
Socratessays:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:30 pm
On Twitter it is “Antony Green Day”.
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I Like The Boy.
Apologies to the late Bert Newton.
Early results only but so far all booths reporting counts showing swings to Labor 🙂
Hi, 98.6
My prediction is at 9.02 am this morning, for what it is worth but not worried about absence from your list.
Thank goodness you rescued the champers.
I’m switching from this thread to the live election thread.
98.6: “I Like The Boy.
Apologies to the late Bert Newton.”
Wow, that’s a blast from the distant past!
Big win for Albanese. Big loss for Dutton. Big nothingburger for Bandt. Big nothingburger for Littleproud. Big nothingburger for the Teals.
10.4% swing to Labor in my booth in Coogee. Looks like my booth is not alone across the state. Very good news so far
What happened to the live election thread? Can’t find it off the front page?
EDIT: Back again.