The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.
UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.
It’s interesting living in the ACT surrounded on all sides by election activity. We have to wait until October next year although the ACT Liberals are already squawking a lot to try and remind people they exist.
Mrs Shellbell has booked movie tickets for tonight.
Do I:
(a) feign injury;
(b) feign illness;
(c) feign injury and illness; or
(d) make up some other excuse?
citizen, would be very funny to send the ACT Libs to the crossbench
NSW is the Gold Standard!
Have heard unconfirmed reports of polling booth officials trying to force people to show ID to vote. Not just to clarify spelling of name (which is allowable) but telling them they actually need photo ID to be allowed to vote (which is not allowed).
Anyone else heard about this?
BW
I came across this the other day.
The opening transmission of the RTÉ Telefís service in 1960.
Presumably their presentation on how modern Ireland was.
The last scene is an Aer Lingus jet taking off
(No doubt taking away emigrants from the god forsaken place. The population was still declining in 1960, 110 years after the famine, despite a third world fertility rate.)
https://youtu.be/cX_NDvSyGsg
citizen: “… the ACT Liberals are already squawking a lot to try and remind people they exist.“
Zed’s dead, baby.
Shellbell says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:19 pm
Mrs Shellbell has booked movie tickets for tonight.
Put iPhone in your pocket & use 1 earbud
Is Mrs Shellbell trying to tell you something?
Shellbell @ #152 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 2:19 pm
Explosive diarrhoea
Unfortunately, while he was booted from Parliament, he and his henchmen still control the organisational wing of the party. Makes it hard for the Liberals to convince people they are relevant to a progressive electorate.
Not as bad as Fed 2016 when forced to take my daughter and friend to watch the Rock in a movie.
Only Burgey’s bust up about Qlders made it tolerable.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And, surprising to me, two handing out red and blue HTVs with THE TRUTH all over them, that it turns out were for Group U independents, which group is headed up by Riccardo Bosi and David Graham, cookers extraordinaire. I wonder where they got the money?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Had two Group-U campaigners at my booth all day.
There is no conspiracy theory they don’t subscribe to. One of them went to the local shop and found a favourite item out of stock – yep that was evidence of a conspiracy too.
Chem trails, covid, global warming, Faucci, cashless society, NATO, school books, pot holes, 5G, you name it, they wanted to talk about it.
It was actually amusing in a way.
The reason for Dutton’s absence in the NSW poll has been revealed…
Dutton notably absent on NSW election day
The federal opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has been missing from the Coalition’s campaign throughout the lead-up to the NSW poll.
Premier Dominic Perrottet batted away questions about Dutton’s absence on Saturday, telling Seven’s Sunrise program that he didn’t need a “wingman” for his election pitch:
“This is an election on NSW issues, it’s a NSW election.”
https://twitter.com/cameronwilson/status/1639409802156863488
See the video in the above link, an example of the below (no paywall on this one).
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/03/24/conspiracy-theorists-harassing-nsw-election-staff/
Conspiracy theorists are harassing NSW election staff, accusing them of ‘election fraud’ for transporting ballot papers
Videos circulating on social media show heated confrontations between NSW election commission staff and people accusing them of being ‘crooks’ doing ‘illegal’ activities.
DFM Brown
I’d laugh – if we didn’t have lots of relatives who are the same!
You always want to say “Is there any single conspiracy theory in the world you don’t believe?”
Shellbell
I’ll be at Docklands watching St.Kilda (probably lose) but hopefully NSW will make my evening!
yes that makes sence dutton isthe most unpopular opposition leader ina long time aand is only liked buy sky news and 2 g b and if he appeared with perottit labor would win in a land slide better to keep him away
Expat, yes it was happening in a pre-poll booth I went to. I asked the person in charge and she said it wasn’t required but they were using it for absentee votes or something like that.
D F M Brown
No WEF and the UN troops are landing this week?
Shellbell says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:19 pm
Mrs Shellbell has booked movie tickets for tonight.
Do I:
(a) feign injury;
(b) feign illness;
(c) feign injury and illness; or
(d) make up some other excuse?
中华人民共和国
Read that in the States you can pay for a service. Blokes roll up in pretend uniforms just as you leave the door, handcuff you and cart you away in a Government looking vehicle to the destination of your choice.
Beer and fishing equipment (including transport can be added for extra costs). After 24-48 hours you are released at a Waffle House and the missus called and told to pick you up and sorry for the misunderstanding. I don’t know about Mrs Shellbell but Mrs Upnorth would freak out – especially given the “reputation” of the Royal Thai Police.
With Perrottet’s Opus Dei background he’ll probably enjoy a good whipping.
id were being asked for at Charlestown east. i queried it and was told it was fine. contacted out campaign manager who contacted electorate returning officer who quickly put a stop to it
Our young grandson was to have had a birthday party this evening but fortunately his parents postponed it until next Saturday. (smiley emoji)
I’m told by perennial Wagga Wagga Greens candidate and former Yorkshireman Ray Goodlass that this is the 12th election (local, state, federal) he has contested, and the first time he’s drawn first spot on the ballot paper.
Well, it has been the most boring election day I have ever been involved in. Helping out at two booths – both unusually quiet.
A low turnout does not auger well for change, but I guess we will soon find out.
Killing 45 mins until I go back for the final hour to hand out.
Douglas and Milko – it’s because of the ever increasing percentage of early voters, I expect. Seemed like that in Vic too, since the majority of voters voted early.
The ACT Liberals seem to think running against light rail again is a good idea. They seem to not want to win elections.
Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 4:17 pm
Well, it has been the most boring election day I have ever been involved in. Helping out at two booths – both unusually quiet.
A low turnout does not auger well for change, but I guess we will soon find out.
Killing 45 mins until I go back for the final hour to hand out.
—————————————————————————————
But at least it’s safer than a French sidewalk at the moment D and M. We just spoke with friends in Paris who are hibernating for a couple of days.
When I went to vote in my booth in a marginal seat today,
I was surprised to hear the Liberal Lady handing me their how to vote card say to me:
“Its all just propaganda anyway”
I just politely giggled
What was I supposed to make out of that?
Just voted at Maryong South PS.
Normally really quiet at this time.
Bloody crowded. Had to wait 5 minutes!!!
No Libs. Just Labor. HTV guy said normally they get 900 at this booth but closer to 1200. No idea why. No new developments.
Bali drew last spot. I suspect it won’t matter.
Now back in chambers, having completed Sussex St duties (we actually had one issue to consider this afternoon – bonus), but still watching the remaining session of my CPD conference on my iPhone as I type. The topic of the Session is entitled “Dog Arsed Cvnts” – [the law relating to] Offensive Language.
Have already skim read the accompanied paper and highlighted and flagged the relevant parts, so I’m off home for a couple of hours before going to Sophie Cotsis’s election party.
Has Danny Lim been out and about?
NSW train fuckup on election day. Perfect!!!
ltep – 423pm
I just looked up the ACT Liberals’ website – from the menu I went to “Opinion” and I end up with a blank page.
https://www.canberraliberals.org.au/category/opinion
Maybe they have taken inspiration from this Russian author –
“The pages are still blank, but there is a miraculous feeling of the words being there, written in invisible ink and clamoring to become visible” – Vladimir Nabokov
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:24 pm
BW
I came across this the other day.
The opening transmission of the RTÉ Telefís service in 1960.
Presumably their presentation on how modern Ireland was.
The last scene is an Aer Lingus jet taking off
(No doubt taking away emigrants from the god forsaken place. The population was still declining in 1960, 110 years after the famine, despite a third world fertility rate.)
https://youtu.be/cX_NDvSyGsg
——————————-
Sometime about 1957 or 1958, 1.8% of the population left in a single year. Classic about Aer Lingus jet taking off!
I like a national anthem based around fantasies of building a Ruhr on an offshore island. There is a video very much like this from… for Tasmania. It featured building dams.
‘Rocket Rocket says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 4:55 pm
ltep – 423pm
I just looked up the ACT Liberals’ website – from the menu I went to “Opinion” and I end up with a blank page.
https://www.canberraliberals.org.au/category/opinion
Maybe they have taken inspiration from this Russian author –
“The pages are still blank, but there is a miraculous feeling of the words being there, written in invisible ink and clamoring to become visible” – Vladimir Nabokov’
———————————————–
When you are not allowed to have the opinion you have, you have a sheet of white paper with nothing on it. The medium is the message?
https://quillette.com/2022/12/21/the-white-paper-revolution/
Just checked the seats market and the ALP is still only the favourite in 42 seats. I know the pendulum is relatively thin in the 0-5% swing range, and there are several seats which are reasonably close in the market, with the ALP in the $2.0-$2.5 range, but that still seems strange. There’s probably some statistical theory which explains it.
Our postal votes were waiting for us at The Verge Hotel in Launceston (nice hotel if you’re coming down this way) and have been completed and now reside in an historic cast iron post box outside City Park. Now for the count to begin in an hour or so. Our votes wont count for much as Jenny Aitchison (ALP) is pretty much unbackable in Maitland but hope Steve Whan takes back Monaro for the ALP.
Historyintime
The ‘pools’ for the markets on individual seats are generally very small, and thus much less reliable (as far as any betting markets are reliable) than the overall ‘win/lose’ government markets.
They have also been subject to manipulation in the past – a small investment could tip the odds seemingly in one’s favour!
I see NSW Labor is around 1.05 and the Coalition is 10.00 – Labor are more favoured in the betting than they were here in Victoria on last November’s election day! From memory I think VicLabor was 1.15-1.20
X @ #181 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 4:53 pm
Not sure about today but I’ve seen him around the city the last couple of weeks.
Including Wednesday at Wynyard in Kent Street.
‘Bellwether says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 4:05 pm
With Perrottet’s Opus Dei background he’ll probably enjoy a good whipping.’
————————————
Whipping? Yeah. Nah. Self-flagellation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-flagellation
goll at 9.36 says:
Morrison did one good thing for Australia and that is to show that, if the voters get it wrong, it can be very wrong.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
QLDers learnt that lesson when they threw out LNPs Campbell Newman after one term.
He sacked 14,000 public servants and was in the process of sacking 11,000 more until the voting public woke up to him.
ONE TERM WONDER
When you are not allowed to have the opinion you have, you have a sheet of white paper with nothing on it. The medium is the message?
—
Is that a bit like Dutton being not allowed to say what he wants to say on the Voice? If so, what then is Dutton’s medium? His grim lips? But whatever his medium, his message is plain.
(Sorry. This should be on the other thread. But it’s emptying out over there.)
‘Tman says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:46 am
Newcastle Moderate, couldn’t agree with you more. Will be glad to see the back of the libs but not at all excited by what Minns has to offer.
I am quietly hoping that it will be an ALP minority government where the crossbench forces Minns to act on pokies and land tax’
—————————–
The crossbench is currently looking more right than left. It is not only the Greens who can play around with a BOP.
A hung NSW parliament is more likely to lead to less progress on pokies, land tax, clearing, climate action, social justice…
‘Late Riser says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:20 pm
When you are not allowed to have the opinion you have, you have a sheet of white paper with nothing on it. The medium is the message?
—
Is that a bit like Dutton being not allowed to say what he wants to say on the Voice? If so, what then is Dutton’s medium? His grim lips? But whatever his medium, his message is plain.
(Sorry. This should be on the other thread. But it’s emptying out over there.)’
———————————————-
Yep. I assume that Dutton will be practising ‘The NSW election was lost on state issues. Nothing to do with me.’
Shellbell says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:19 pm
Mrs Shellbell has booked movie tickets for tonight.
Do I:
(a) feign injury;
(b) feign illness;
(c) feign injury and illness; or
(d) make up some other excuse?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Its times like these that you wouldn’t mind if your MRS had a boyfriend she could take instead.
Just heard on the news that counting will cease at 10pm and resume again on Monday. No counting tomorrow.
Their ‘Policies’ page says only “Our election policies will be published here during the election campaign”. That crowd is a mess.
https://canberraliberals.org.au/our-policies
shellbell
You need reasons. Not excuses. Surely some of your clients have come up with some good’uns over the years?
New thread for the live results by me.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/25/new-south-wales-election-live-4/
In an exciting announcement, Premier Perrottet explained that up to 3000 current footpaths will become tollways over the next 12 months.
“We’ve decided to roll out the new tolls in order to help generate revenue for schools, hospitals and infrastructure,” Perrottet said.
The Betoota Advocate