The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.
UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.
Newcastle Moderate, couldn’t agree with you more. Will be glad to see the back of the libs but not at all excited by what Minns has to offer.
I am quietly hoping that it will be an ALP minority government where the crossbench forces Minns to act on pokies and land tax
MABWM
NSW blog did posted a lot about ‘hung parliament ‘. I am one of them who posted that. And many others did that.
Why?
NSW Labor has to win 9 seats to get majority.
Upto to 4 or 5 seats it is relatively easily doable.
But after that because of OPV and margins Liberal seats have built it will be a hard climb.
Back for morning tea ☕
I’ll tell you one thing for free, the Liberals know how to talk to the Greens. I had my most heated discussion with the guy handing out for the Greens today about the competing pokies policies and he swore that the Liberals policy was better than Labor’s. Evan though the Liberals’ policy doesn’t start until 2028 and doesn’t pull as many machines from the floors of the clubs and pubs as Labor’s does.
Sheesh!
Other than that it’s been a pretty good day so far.
The ambulance story dropped on Tuesday. What were the newspoll dates. That was a pretty impressive turnaround on the meaningless preferred Premier regardless. Or irregardless for our north American friends. I used to work for a Canadian company 🙂
The potentially flawed view is OPV will automatically hurt Labor.
My own view (and it’s only a view) is like in QLD in 2015 – if the Libs are on the nose, across the board – chances are the Libs aren’t going to benefit from preference flows.
IF the there is a splintering of the Lib PV, if some goes to the ALP (as seems likely) then OPV won’t matter – there seems to be some evidence the RWNJ flows aren’t going to be super strong.
One of the justifications in advance of QLD in 2015 arguing Labor couldn’t possibly get across the line in any form, was assuming the Greens would exhaust at a similar rate as the previous election. They didn’t.
My own key thoughts about this campaign from months ago – and nothing has changed.
1. The Libs are likely to underperform expectations.
2. A key reason for this is the Libs will not benefit from OPV to the extent expected.
Only 7-8 hours before we start to see.
C@t – thanks for all your work and likewise to everyone else working today .
Hope you have got a cake / sausage / whatever is on offer. Polling booths with no food (or even occasional bookstall like we had once) are a bit sad.
As Boerwar said – you appreciate democracy on election day. Dictators never have to worry about elections, and it does tend to make their decision making somewhat erratic at the very least.
It looks like the swing will be on. Although local issues, personalities and regional factors can play a part, basically when the swing is on, it is on across the board.
We had a coffee van, a BBQ and a cake stall at our polling place. I sampled the Rocky Road chocolate crackle. Yum!
Also it looks like the Liberals have A Frames with a list of things that they have done for the electorate on them.
Not sure if linked previously. Looks at the interesting seats:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/24/seats-to-watch-the-nsw-election-is-likely-to-come-down-to-these-key-electorates
March 25
Is the Feast of the Annunciation:
The angel of the lord declared onto Mary, and she conceived of the Holy Spirit:
Hail Mary, full of grace…etc
Not sure of the significance but both leaders would have celebrated this when children and Perottet still does
I think the rortsphere lens of looking at NSW is probably the most accurate.
Voting for the LNP has become less and less rewarding as the grift continues.
Anyway. Whatever happens today, there’s an ICAC report on Gladys coming out soon. Can’t hardly wait!
I suspect Perrottet is praying for a miracle but the question is which is more unlikely:
1. The coalition winning
or
2. A virgin birth
Oakeshott country says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:40 am
I suspect Perrottet is praying for a miracle but the question is which is more unlikely:
1. The coalition winning
or
2. A virgin birth
中华人民共和国
Probably the latter cobber. Given the way medical procedures have advanced.
south: “Whatever happens today, there’s an ICAC report on Gladys coming out soon.”
We don’t need to hear that bit … 😉
If Minns does win, my theory is the ambulance story totally did Perrottett in, and it was obviously leaked by someone inside the Liberal Party – Brad Hazzard perhaps?
I think ordinary punters who’ve had to deal with the public hospital system wouldn’t appreciate a member of the Premier’s family getting special treatment, irrespective of how ill Helen Perrottett no doubt was.
Minority government is still my tip, but we’ll see tonight, should be interesting nonetheless.
BTW, Albo was in Ryde this morning, the PM is obviously visiting polling booths around Sydney and not just in Grayndler.
C@tmomma @ #109 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 11:06 am
A blank canvas then?
” March 25
Is the Feast of the Annunciation”
Just nine more months ‘til Christmas…
UpNorth
Quite right – it is probably now a regular occurrence
Sportsbet electorate betting – Liberals in Bega have blown out from 5.00 to 10.00 in 24 hours, that’s the biggest change in odds, and the odds for the independent candidate in Wakehurst have improved a fair bit too. Otherwise, not much change really from a few days ago, Labor narrow favourites in 4 or 5 Coalition marginal seats and heavy favourites in Parramatta.
Oakeshott country says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:46 am
UpNorth
Quite right – it is probably now a regular occurrence
中华人民共和国
More regular than wins by the Tories as of late old mate.
BTW I backed Penriff and the Dolphins to get up this week – top games but not Cigar. Need the Cowboys and Rabbits to get home today or my reputation will be in (more) shreds.
Albo spending time in Drummoyne and Ryde today… 13.6% and 8.9% respectively.
And Dutton wasn’t allowed anywhere near the NSW Liberal campaign.
The NSW Libs instead recycled that old relic John Howard.
Interesting Vox Pop conducted unscientific by me – Q: Why is Perrottet likely to lose?
This to some largely apolitical well-heeled friends
A: (summarised) Perrottet has done ok, but the Liberal brand is on the nose. Why? Because of Scott Morrison.
Evan says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 12:00 pm
And Dutton wasn’t allowed anywhere near the NSW Liberal campaign.
The NSW Libs instead recycled that old relic John Howard.
中华人民共和国
You mean John “The Angel of Death” Howard? Geez they must be in strife.
I think that’s inherently hit the nail on the head why Labor is likely to win today.
The Liberal brand is now more damaged than the Labor brand in NSW.
Bring out Tony, Malcolm or Scott.
And Peter Dutton isn’t the answer to revive the Liberal brand in the seats they lost to the Teals, nor in the suburban seats they lost to Labor and the Greens last year.
OC
Have you read Fintan O’Toole “We Don’t Know Ourselves”?
Big thumbs down to the officials at my local booth. All major parties adhered to the rules, but the Animal Justice Party candidate hassling people in the queue inside the school. Not good enough from all concerned.
Pokies bosses breathing easier today after newspoll.
Richard Ed.
Where is Albo?
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has joined the election day campaign, heading out to the Ryde electorate in Sydney’s north-west.
“I’ve worked very closely with Chris [Minns] and we have similar values,” Albanese said.
“I campaigned strongly yesterday, I was in Penrith and Riverstone, the day before I was in Monaro. Today I am in Ryde and Drummoyne and Summer Hill and Balmain.
“I’ll be out and about because I think he [Chris Minns] will make a great premier of NSW and I hope he is successful.”
Where is Dutton?
Witness Protection
Chris Minns in Oatley, Narwee PS which was included in the northern additions via redistribution.
One to watch..
With Ashvini. https://www.nswlabor.org.au/ashvini_ambihaipahar
Ven says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:51 am
MABWM
NSW blog did posted a lot about ‘hung parliament ‘. I am one of them who posted that. And many others did that.
Why?
NSW Labor has to win 9 seats to get majority.
Upto to 4 or 5 seats it is relatively easily doable.
But after that because of OPV and margins Liberal seats have built it will be a hard climb.
____________________________________
@ Ven,
Your post is a sensible contribution. The Victorian posts were just clearly partisan fools throwing rubbish around pretending to participate in debate. The polls were at 55/45 for the previous three years in favour of the popular Premier who already held a massive majority, and yet there were incessant rants by fools squawking “hung parliament”.
The situation in NSW is clearly different – the pools are similar but they are in favour of an opposition. The debate has been sensible. The ‘debate’ in Victoria was deluded.
BTW – you are however wrong. LNP are going to be flogged!
Don’t know if you can believe a word Kieren Gilbert says, but he posted this just now..
If you thought Chris Minns was sharp in our people’s forum on Wednesday, he didn’t leave anything to chance. The Labor leader did four full practice debates with party legend John Faulkner during the campaign #nswpol
Aqualung says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 10:55 am
The ambulance story dropped on Tuesday. What were the newspoll dates. That was a pretty impressive turnaround on the meaningless preferred Premier regardless. Or irregardless for our north American friends. I used to work for a Canadian company
——————
Bill Bryson: “There are 174,000 words in the OED, irregardless is not one of them”
Juggling Sussex St duties with a CDP legal conference at world square today (which I can strand either in person or via AVL, which I have been doing because with ease so far because we have had exactly zero disputes reported in that may need some legal advice. Which is quite extraordinary and speaks well for civilised campaigning out there in voter land today. Good good.
Just got back from the morning shift at my local school. Sister’s 50th wedding anniversary party later, so I opted out of the afternoon shift. Only a few turn up after 1 pm anyway.
HTV for my mate David. Two of us good blokes, with four A-frames, and a few corflutes on the fence. Three Libs, of whom one got sent home early for being obnoxious. They had six A-frames, so I suppose we will lose our booth. /s
And, surprising to me, two handing out red and blue HTVs with THE TRUTH all over them, that it turns out were for Group U independents, which group is headed up by Riccardo Bosi and David Graham, cookers extraordinaire. I wonder where they got the money?
One of their two was a very large man of islander appearance, who took loud exception to one of the punters calling him ‘delusional’ shouting some guff about ’90 year suppression order on paedophiles’. He was truly scary. Weird look in his eyes.
I did a google on Bosi, and came up with this.
“Our objective is to collapse the government that’s elected in March, to collapse the entire system, the polity, the judiciary, the constabulary, the lot”
I hope/expect that there is no hope of them getting 4%.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/tear-the-place-down-inside-cookers-bizarre-plan-to-run-for-nsw-parliament/news-story/25c6273feb2ff97cd02c9f04ce0c250a
Wasn’t it nice of Rupert to give them that lovely free publicity!
LNP should lose this election just because of Barilaro scandals
Around this time on federal election day , corrupt media and Morrison tried the boat stunt , wonder if NSW lib/nats will try something
LNP should lose this election just because of the way they handled Delta COVID lockdown in June-August 2020
LNP should lose this election just because of the way they handled NSW North Coast floods
Ven says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 1:23 pm
LNP should lose this election just because of the way they handled Delta COVID lockdown in June-August 2020
————————————-
Also Morrison and Frydenberg called NSW the gold plated state
Kieran Gilbert, per sprocket:
“If you thought Chris Minns was sharp in our people’s forum on Wednesday, he didn’t leave anything to chance. The Labor leader did four full practice debates …”
Before the TV debate in which Kennedy pipped Nixon, his minders brought in a young, er, professional woman to provide some horizontal refreshment.
BW
Haven’t read O’Toole yet but his general theme coincides with my view after going there 5 times in 30 years.
The first time I went there I was on a Saturday night flight and I was surprised that 2 20+ yr olds next to us on the plane were planning their drinking around which mass they were going to in the morning. On the same night the unionists exploded a bomb in the centre of Dublin.
The last time I went, pre-covid, we stayed in a Gaeltacht area but the most common language I heard was Polish – all the hospitality staff were EU.
I go back because the change has been amazing and mostly for the better
“lockdown in June-August 2020”
2021
“Juggling Sussex St duties with a CDP legal conference”
The sublime and the ridiculous
Upnorth
I went ‘riff and dolphins as well. Both bad choices but the games have been intense- they were both next level
Just got back from voting (Campbelltown, voted 1 Greg Warren, top bloke). The Labor and Liberal HTV volunteers were at opposite ends of the line, and very quiet. The ON, AJP and LibDems were bunched up in between, and were practically squawking over each other. The ON dude (youngish, bald, biker type with baseball cap) was ranting something about 13yo’s having sex changes, when an even bigger guy waiting in line told him in no uncertain terms to shut it.
A day in the life of Australian democracy in the febrile 2020’s.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:01 pm
BW
Haven’t read O’Toole yet but his general theme coincides with my view after going there 5 times in 30 years.
The first time I went there I was on a Saturday night flight and I was surprised that 2 20+ yr olds next to us on the plane were planning their drinking around which mass they were going to in the morning. On the same night the unionists exploded a bomb in the centre of Dublin.
The last time I went, pre-covid, we stayed in a Gaeltacht area but the most common language I heard was Polish – all the hospitality staff were EU.
I go back because the change has been amazing and mostly for the better’
———————————————-
Agree on the last.
What shocked me about the 1950’s was the sheer backwardness in so many respects. Women spent a large amount of their lives carting water in buckets. The total cultural control by the church was also shocking, if not surprising.
One interesting thing in the now is that then the UK was at the centre of the world and Ireland was basically an off-shore island of no real interest to anyone.
The Brexit negotiations were red-lined by Ireland and its views on the land border. England is now an off-shore island. Direct ferry traffic between France and Ireland is growing by leaps and bounds.
The fundamental positioning of the two with respect to the rest of the world has neatly reversed itself.
(I do give Sunak credit for fixing what Boris and his bastards were trying to destroy.)