The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.
UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.
No surprise.
I’m looking forward to the count tomorrow night. This Newspoll will be heartening for the Labor booth workers tomorrow morning. Hopefully there won’t be too much rain around!
Corflutes are up on the school fence, the box of htvs are ready and waiting by the front door. Will be enjoying my drinks at the after party if Antony is calling anything close to these numbers this time tomorrow.
See you on the barricades tomorrow comrades! Vote early, vote often.
Popcorn anyone?
They fell into a burnin’ ring of fire
They went down, down, down
And the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
June Carter, Merle Kilgore
” Hopefully there won’t be too much rain around!”
If you’re in Sydney, the planning principle is “assume it’s going to rain”.
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:17 pm
”
Steve777says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:04 pm
Re Sprocket @9:39
”ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 others 16”
My back of the envelope calculation for 2PP:
ALP: 38 + 0 + 9 + 8 = 55
So 55-45 ? That would surely be a landslide if it comes off.
”
How can you come up with that 2PP when it is OPV?
I get NSW Labor has advantage with its higher Primary but I don’t get 2PP of 55-45 because Greens voters had a exhaustion rate of about 40% in last 3 elections and hence they won’t transfer 9 of the 11 % to Labor. And other had a exhaustion rate of 65% .
So over 54 2PP for Labor looks questionable
The main numbers to pay attention to in this poll, I reckon, is the primary votes.
In the 2019 election, the Coalition vote was 41.6%. The final newspoll has them 35%, a reduction of 6-7%.
In 2019, Labor’s vote was 33.3%. According to the poll, they’re at 38%. A boost of 4-5%.
Most importantly, Labor leads on primary votes. In the Optional Preferential Vote environment of NSW, that is very significant. So I think that Labor will win if those are the numbers.
For this poll’s sample size of 1205, the margin of error (rounded) is 3%.
Certainly will be a spring in my step at my booth out in Wagga. I’ll get the joy of saying to voters that there is going to be a change of government so why don’t they finally get on board with the rest of the country rather than keeping their conservative heads buried. If neither come of anything at least I’ll have enjoyed my day!
Though the beers at the pub when we meet up after booths close will be very sweet with a Minns win.
Under normal circumstances, 54.5% 2pp would be a pretty hefty majority of seats that Labor win on the 2pp, and there’s only three seats (Balmain, Newtown, Lake Macquarie) that would be safe Labor on (notional) 2pp while not won by them. (Ballina is marginal, so doesn’t skew the 2pp in the way Grn/ALP seats do.)
Looking at the pendulum: a uniform 6.5% swing would get them 9 seats – everything up the pendulum to Parramatta. Notionally 37 now (assuming they’ll get back Bankstown), so win all those seats and that’s 46 – juuust short. They might not get Upper Hunter, but there’s a few above that point they could get (Bega’s the obvious one, Ryde, Camden etc). The pendulum’s tilted away from them, but the worst case scenario is having to get the Greens and/or Piper to back them. Hello, Premier Minns.
Meanwhile in the upper house, 54.5 is 12 quotas. That’d be something like 8 ALP, 2 Grn, plus 2 more from AJP / Legalise Cannabis / 9th Labor / 3rd Green. That’d give a left (ALP, Grn, AJP, LC) majority overall.
The 2 PP is probably more like 46 to 39 with OPV. Saying 54.5 to 45.5 just confuses people about the dangers of not giving preferences. Or the damage done by the Just Vote 1 clowns.
Yabba
Thanks for reminding me of this song
https://youtu.be/VO08gB82mds
If Labor wins tomorrow I will greatly relish rubbing the salt into the political wounds of the likes of Alexandra Smith, Lucy Cormack, Bevan Shields, Jordan Baker et al. Seriously, fuck these people.
(From old thread)
Assuming an exhaustion rate of 50% for Independents and others and a rate of about 40% for Green voters, I still get Labor 2PP ~ 54%.
(38 + 0 + 5 + 4) / (38 + 35 + 6 + 8).
You never count your money when your sittin at the table,
There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing’s done.
However, I too am interested in how they got to 54.5% two party preferred. I would have thought a lot of the others would be One Nation this time and when those people get in the polling booth and see no ON candidate in most cases will tend to vote Coalition in the usual 65/35 ratio. But one presumes Newspoll knows what it’s doing.
Also, how do you get a 2.5% swing between the two polls when the Labor/Greens vote is up 1% and the Coalition down 1%. Must be in the preference flows I guess. Maybe they have gotten stronger to Labor.
Ven, exhaustion works both ways. For every Green voter who exhausts instead of preferencing Labor, there’s a Shooters / One Nation voter who does the same thing for the Libs. As a percentage, it more or less cancels out. The only exception would be something like Qld 2015, where Labor ran a “number all boxes and put the LNP last” campaign.
Spence: the Labor + Lib figures have to add up to 100 – that’s the definition of 2pp. Having OPV doesn’t change that, it just means they’re getting a percentage of a slightly smaller pool of votes.
If that is the actual result, Minns certainly gets to majority government, and the Teals pick up 1 or 2 seats too.
And if the next Liberal leader is Matt Kean, that party will split in two, the far right of that party and their media cheersquad on 2GB and Sky News will not cop a pro renewable energy Liberal as their leader.
S.Simpson, as for the rag known as the SMH, Bevan Shields and the Perrottett cheer squad can all piss off. No doubt Chairman of Nine Media, one Peter Costello, has imposed his will on his employees.
“No doubt Chairman of Nine Media, one Peter Costello, has imposed his will on his employees.”
This is something that only a royal commission could uncover. If the Libs lose it’s absolute doldrums. My bet would be Speakman to become leader. As you say the right will not tolerate Kean and I reckon he is OK with being deputy.
Hope the trains, buses and ferries are running for those seeking to access polling booths by public transport. And remember not to stress. If you suffer a medical emergency just call Brad Hazzard and he will arrange a personal ambulance to attend to your needs.
BoP. There are 2 relevant figures. One with base of all formal votes. One with base of all votes left after exhaustion.
The gap is less with exhausted votes excluded.
That said if Speakman became leader then Kean couldn’t be Deputy it would have to be from the Right .
Given a 3% margin of error, the ALP vote could be in excess of 57% 2PP
And just to repeat, where is the Chinese Restaurant PPY INN, with the red signage?
So the couple and the spinster are photographed outside a CHINESE Restaurant, no doubt plotting declaring War on China on Monday
Is there a HA HA Taiwan Restaurant with blue colouring?
In Victoria, I note Smuthurst of the Costello rag has turned on the Liberal Party Parliamentary leader, linking him to failure
I assume they have therefore conceded Aston because Aston saw the division not reported
I think we’ll see some seats have 10%+ swings to Labor.
”
Spencesays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:23 pm
The 2 PP is probably more like 46 to 39 with OPV. Saying 54.5 to 45.5 just confuses people about the dangers of not giving preferences. Or the damage done by the Just Vote 1 clowns.
”
Exactly. 54.4-45.5 in favour of NSW Labor is a misnomer.
Another result of a big 2pp swing to Labor: it means the Nats can’t win Lismore. A small swing from Nat to Grn could have the perverse result of Labor missing the top two and the Nats winning on their preferences; if it’s that size though, the Greens can still win a Grn/Nat 2cp (just with a smaller margin than ALP/Nat would be).
Try drawing a triangle of all possible 3cp figures, colour-coded by who wins the seat. I did, and it came out looking like a Mondrian painting.
One Nine media person, Chris O’Keefe now on 2GB, has been remarkably even handed this campaign, Minns has been on his program as much as Pertottett. A rarity in this organisation, the likes of Fordham and Hadley are the usual Liberal mouthpieces.
As for the SMH, a shame their state political journalists are nowhere near the quality of David Crowe or Sean Nicholls. Alexandra Smith obviously wants a gig as press secretary to Matt Kean, I would not employ her in a newspaper office.
The lesson that the Coalition will take from a loss tomorrow, amplified by the right wing media*, is that they were too left wing. The NSW Liberals have for a long time been more pragmatic and centrist than their counterparts in Canberra. I think that a loss would be a signal a shift to the right.
* Basically the whole mainstream media except the ABC and Fairfax, the latter being Centre-Right
It was night
A starry moonless sight
One day from the election
There sailed a ship of state
She was big This ship of theocracy
Everything was sold off
No public place to be
And she sailed
Through the night
On her way
Down among the dead men
Down among the dead men
The band played
She sailed the virgin
She sailed the sea
Down among the dead men
Captain Dom
The master in command
A man in search of wisdom
A tall standing man
But the fog He didn’t hear the calls
The voters were waiting
For fifteen Liberal trolls
And she sailed
Through the night
On her way Down among the dead men
Down among the dead men
The band played
She sailed the virgin
She sailed the sea
Down among the dead men
Down among the dead men
And into history
With a state 6 to 7 % swing to Labor, swings in seats likely to be anywhere between 0 and 12 plus % .
Since people have taken to suggesting appropriate songs for the election, here are a few more:
“Saturday night is the loneliest night of the week”
“Gloomy Sunday”
“What is this thing called swing?”
“Who’s Sorry Now?”
“They Didn’t Believe Me”
”Exactly. 54.4-45.5 in favour of NSW Labor is a misnomer.”
Not really. Votes that exhaust before both the final winner and runner-up are excluded from the denominator when calculating 2PP, like informal votes.
The 7am podcast did an excellent morning where they listed all the liberal scandals starting from Barry O’Farrel and that bottle of grange. Good luck CM.
So next week we will have 2 or 3 new Liberal leaders, in NSW, in Victoria and probably federally
Look, I am still scarred after Shorten, but man oh man would it be fun to see the likes of Alexandra Smith and Liz Daniels from Nine tomorrow if the NewsPoll bears out in the election.
Seats with retiring Liberal members with margins of 14% or less are fair game tomorrow night – Parramatta, Ryde, Riverstone, Holsworthy, Drummoyne, South Coast.
Another prediction: Perrottett’s dumb idea to run Melanie Gibbons in Kiama will be a colossal dud.
Evansays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 11:01 pm
Another prediction: Perrottett’s dumb idea to run Melanie Gibbons in Kiama will be a colossal dud.
—–
Evan it was deliberate. The Libs knew they would not beat Ward. They dont care. The local members are running dead or in support of Ward.
Why Victoria? Pesutto is probably the best Lib leader anywhere in the country right now. Hopefully his party aren’t stupid enough to keep Moira Deeming around – that’s the main thing that would cook his leadership.
Then we get to the former ABC “journalist”, crying at her defeat in a Lower House seat, resurrected in the Senate and now in tears again
Because of Deeming and the protest she attended on Spring Street with neo Nazis
So does the Senator support the expulsion of Deeming or is she amongst those supporting freedom of association?
Next week is going to be very interesting in Victoria as to who survives
BoP
Keep watching
The appearance behind signage a couple of weeks ago cooked his goose – before Deeming appearing as she did
Evan at 5.54 & 10.57 pm, 98.6 at 8.06 pm, sprocket at 9.39 & 9.50 pm
Dr Bonham has updated his final days rolling poll page:
“A big result in the final Newspoll (19-23 March) which has come out with Labor ahead 54.5-45.5, off primaries of Labor 38 Coalition 35 Greens 11 others 16. This is very significant in the majority-or-not stakes; in my model 54.5 actually is good for a median of 47 seats and a one-seat majority.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-lower-house-2023-final-days-rolling.html
It is worth recalling his prescient Christmas Day comment:
“What is noticeable here is that the range of swings projected to produce a hung parliament is remarkably wide – any swing to Labor that isn’t very large appears a good chance to do it. But hung parliaments have a track record of not happening lately (fifteen state and federal majorities in a row, with twelve of the campaigns featuring various levels of media speculation about a hung parliament being likely.)”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/nsw-2023-lower-house-preview-is-dom.html
The last Newspoll is roughly between the one a month ago and the one last September, suggesting little has changed for voters since spring.
Those figures should be on Leroy’s tweet at:
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1629793772006678528
The most interesting aspect of the previous Newspoll was the gender gap evident in the question about giving somebody else a go instead of Perrottet. For men it was a small majority for change (Labor) but for women the majority was large (at least 60% for change).
It is mostly the women of NSW who will create a likely Labor majority.
Whatever happens in the upper house, this change will be a repudiation not just of Perrottet but also of Latham and his running-mate.
Evan I think Labor’s 38 seats going into tomorrow include Leppington and Bega, but not Heathcote. See Dr Bonham’s seat list at:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/02/nsw-2023-new-polls-say-labor-majority.html
I think 6 of those are certain Labor gains, including the end of Ayres:
Heathcote, East Hills, Penrith, Holsworthy, Riverstone and Parramatta.
The Lib campaign in Penrith seems to have become rather desperate.
That would be 44. Then in these 4 seats Labor have a very good chance:
Winston Hills (it will likely be affected by the broader western Sydney swing, though the sitting member is recontesting), Goulburn (with a good candidate, noting Dr Bonham’s model had it line-ball before the latest poll, without including candidate factors), Ryde (because of the retirement of Dominello and the overlap with Bennelong, and the Labor candidate is more experienced than the young Lib) and Monaro.
On Dr Bonham’s model Monaro was only an 11% chance for Labor before the latest Newspoll, but that was based on Porky Barilaro’s inflated opinion of himself in 2019, which many voters swallowed then, disregarding the 6% swing against the Nats in the by-election.
Steve Whan’s theme is “energy and experience”. That should resonate. It will be nice irony for him if he wins. This evening a Monaro voter (a retired astronomer with a good memory) recalled how crude in terms of vile personal attacks Barilaro’s 2015 campaign against Whan was.
The current Nationals member, Mrs Overall, is not crude, but her green and gold letter to all and sundry mailboxes is a classic clunker, saying:
“We can either back my plan to deliver better roads, better health services, a stronger economy and more assistance for your household budget. [next sentence has bold text but no significant new details, just mainly reiterating Porky’s fuel card for seniors etc] Or we can back the Labor/Greens/Independent plan to rip funding out of regional NSW and funnel it into Western Sydney.”
That is a case of playing to your opponent’s strengths, apart from the fact that the roads around Monaro (including the main highway from Canberra to the coast) are in a bad state of disrepair, and have been for the past couple of years, so why hasn’t the government fixed them?
Anyway, if Labor wins three of those 4 it gets a majority (47). It could get all 4, and a couple more from Dr Bonham’s list, such as (in likely order) Oatley, South Coast (incumbent retiring), Kiama and Camden.
On the latest evidence Labor is looking good for around 48-50 seats.
Even if the Libs lose a few seats to independents, the election will be determined by the primary swing to Labor, especially among women.
Steve777 – 1048pm
Yes that will be the line in the right wing media – that the NSW Liberals were too left wing and too similar to Labor. The irony being of course is that that is the ONLY thing that has kept them anywhere near being in the race. But that’s fine – if the Liberals all across Australia go further right they will be on the wilderness even longer.
I still don’t understand how Gareth Ward can be the favourite in Kiama, given what he’s been charged with. Troy Bell in SA got kicked out of the Libs and won as an independent with a ICAC investigation hanging over him, so it’s not unheard of, but multiple charges of sexual assault? He’d have to be a VERY good local member.
Ward is known as an EXTREMELY active local member. I know many in his electorate and his reputation is minimising the impact of the charges.
Especially since the public’s attention span is what it is.
Ward has always been the favourite.
“I still don’t understand how Gareth Ward can be the favourite in Kiama, given what he’s been charged with. Troy Bell in SA got kicked out of the Libs and won as an independent with a ICAC investigation hanging over him, so it’s not unheard of, but multiple charges of sexual assault? He’d have to be a VERY good local member.”
I’m not surprised by this TBH. People can overlook stuff like this if they think their self-interest is being met. If he *does* get convicted, it’s going to be confronting for many people in Kiama.
Multi-year lurker, first time poster: Labor majority please
“Hopefully there won’t be too much rain around!”
Rain or no rain I’m glad we’re done with the 40 degree days for a while.
Bird of paradox says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 11:32 pm
“I still don’t understand how Gareth Ward can be the favourite in Kiama, given what he’s been charged with. Troy Bell in SA got kicked out of the Libs and won as an independent with a ICAC investigation hanging over him, so it’s not unheard of, but multiple charges of sexual assault? He’d have to be a VERY good local member.”
SP replies:
I’m not surprised by this TBH. People can overlook stuff like this if they think their self-interest is being met. If he *does* get convicted, it’s going to be confronting for many people in Kiama.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says:
People know who and what they are voting for and approx 30% of all votes come from diehard Tories who would still vote for him no matter what he did.
We shall see on Saturday night.