The Australian reports the election eve Newspoll finds Labor on track for a comfortable win in tomorrow’s New South Wales state election with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 52-48 in its poll at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 11% (down one), beyond which there is only a combined result of 16% for independents and other parties. The poll also finds Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 41-39 as preferred premier, which reverses Perrottet’s solid 43-33 last time and looks to be the first time a Labor leader has led on this measure in Newspoll since the Coalition came to power in 2011. Exact numbers on approval and disapproval are not yet provided, but we are told Perrottet’s net rating has dived from plus 9% to minus 3%, while Minns is up from plus 8% to plus 14%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Thursday from a sample of 1205.
UPDATE: Samantha Hutchison of the Financial Review reports marginal seat polling conducted for the Liberals by CT Group is consistent with Newspoll, but that sources have nonetheless “not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power”.
Votes that exhaust effectively become informal at some point in the count. They reduce the size of vote pool, but do not change the 2CP splits. If Labor are clearly ahead on PVs and there are relatively fewer prefs to distribute, Labor should win in most contests.
What is quite clear is the coalition cannot possibly win on these numbers. Independents would have to be doing exceptionally well in seats that Labor might otherwise win in order to produce a hung parliament.
Labor should win quite handily.
The Lying Reactionaries will have to ponder why they bother at all.
It makes you wonder why Perrottett was in Kogarah this afternoon instead of a marginal Liberal seat?
Minn’s movements today make sense to me in light of the Newspoll, and also sending the Prime Minister to a couple of seats with margins over 6%.
Donut 1153 pm – welcome
And good luck to everyone who is working for the Electoral Commission tomorrow, and everyone who is manning the polling booths.
I am hoping we have another Labor Premier north of our border by tomorrow night.
“It makes you wonder why Perrottett was in Kogarah this afternoon instead of a marginal Liberal seat?”
He’s been there a bunch of times this campaign. He was there on the 1st of March to launch their candidate, he was there on the 10th for some boomer centric announcements, the bus at least stopped there on the 20th and he was there today, apparently as the final stop with media for the campaign. With the oppo leader’s seat being super marginal you might as well finish off the campaign there, why not.
“The lesson that the Coalition will take from a loss tomorrow, amplified by the right wing media*, is that they were too left wing.”
That’s what they always say. Remember that Trump loving slug Paul Murray talking about becoming “the resistance” after Albo defeated “his mate” Scomo, as if he isn’t being paid by our planets equivalent to Emperor Palpatine.
Rowan Dean talking about how Albo was going to “destroy the fabric of the nation”.
Andrew Bolt wanting the Liberals to go even harder on indigenous genocide denialism, climate scepticism and getting rid of all those emotional women.
And lastly but not least that knowingly evil shrew Peta calling to go even further to the right to “be a strong alternative”, while ignoring that Australia moved significantly leftward with the ALP & Greens wins followed up with core LNP seats being lost to soft-right independents.
Australia has seen “American Carnage” and want no part of it. The last thing Australia needs is to privatise education, to destroy health care for the poor, banning unions, to allow unfettered capitalism to ruin cities by deregulating transportation leading to devastating toxic waste dumps, to demonise the LGBT community, book burnings, white christian nationalism where they can impose their religious laws on you, to say that there’s no such thing as racism or misogyny and to disenfranchise citizens with draconian and clearly racist challenges, wipeouts of the electoral rolls and removal of voting booths in areas held by your political opponents.
Good morning and good luck to all! Looking forward to another election night.
Good morning Itep. Long time no see. I remember your analysis of Federal election 2022. 🙂
Happy Election Day, Bludgers!
Off to set up the final touches on my booth. And then to do my best to make this seat the upset of the day.
Good luck out on the booths today Labor Bludgers. Crossing my fingers for a Labor majority at tonight’s count. The polls at east are promising.
I enjoyed last night’s commentary on this thread and particularly the thoughts of those NSW Bludgers with local seat experience.
I think y’all forget that the centre right party has remained centre right. The libs face an ever expanding left wing electorate ALONGSIDE an ever expanding right wing faction that think the libs are left wing now because as compared to them yes they’re.
You underestimate how shit people like Matt Kean are performing in polls, it’s what is leading to the current swing of their base to one nation. To be completely fair, the one nation leader in NSW has been campaigning on issues where the libs were seen better than labor on when it comes to education curriculum and energy policy. Hell even Labor keeping Eraring open is a major win. Y’all act like the NSW libs haven’t attempted go to left when they’re literally more left than WA labor and others. In WA, the libs went left and failed.
Compare policy and you’ll see. This push for the libs to go further left from their centre right position is a result of the growing left populous but they’re still the libs, a centre right party. Going left will never work for them. There’s ample contempt for them from the left; they’re trying to get votes they’d never get. Instead all they’re doing is alienating their base which is what the sky opinion show hosts are saying and I think you miss their point on that.
Feeling genuinely excited. There is change in the air.
Hope the voters of NSW make the right choice.
Watching the news last night Minns looked relatively fresh despite campaigning late into the night and up again early Friday morning. Perrottet just looks defeated. They must know what’s coming tonight.
Best wishes to Bludgers out on the hustings today. Looking forward to tonight.
perottit seems to realize he is unlikely to winn ayres soundid desperate in penrith yesterday
Evan says: “One Nine media person, Chris O’Keefe now on 2GB, has been remarkably even handed this campaign …”
Interestingly, O’Keefe previously made it into Bruce Lehrmann’s ‘Blue Book’:
“… the so-called friendly journalists included Sky News broadcasters Andrew Clennell and Andrew Bolt. They also included Chris O’Keefe and Chris Uhlmann, the court has heard.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/24/bruce-lehrmann-told-employer-false-allegations-had-not-hurt-his-ability-to-lobby-effectively-documents-show
G’day all, it should be quite a day and evening in NSW, all the best to those out on the hustings.
Sportsbet: Labor in to $1.10 and LNP ,after coming in to $5.50, has ‘eased out’ to $7.50.
Rocket Rocket: “I am hoping we have another Labor Premier north of our border by tomorrow night.”
Liberal governments are about to become extinct on the mainland.
Morning all. Good luck to all Labor, Greens and Teal bludgers involved in the NSW election today. Have fun and keep positive. We should assume nothing, but the odds look good.
For Liberal bludgers chin up. After so many years grifting in office you probably don’t need to work. For those that do the job market is quite buoyant if you have useful skills, though you may find income levels outside the rortsphere disappointing.
O’Keefe is cookie cutter 2gb.
He is your mate and has your back then he is not and he had your back so he could see where to put the knife in.
98.6
Here is my result forecast.
I have gone from minority to majority.
Labor majority by 1 or 2.
The late Newspoll & Morgan polls and the general vibes have confirmed my forecast.
Hopefully, C@tmomma, despite my pessimism, Torygal does change hands – today.
Usual delight of voting at Willoughby Public/Girls High with the snag and cupcakes tables running for 40 metres.
I’ve been calling a labor victory for months now and don’t see any reason to alter my prediction.
Good luck to my local labor candidate in Drummoyne, Julia Little.
A double digit margin to overcome but she is in with a shot.
Oh, and Perrotet was in Minns seat yesterday for one reason only – the optics.
He’s cactus.
I posted many times and I will post it again.
NSW Labor has to win Parramatta and Penrith to form government. For the last 28 years Holsworthy (Menai earlier) went with the winner of the election.
If NSW Labor wins election, Steve Whan will win Monaro.
Socrates @ 7.49am
“the rortsphere”
How many voters have decided that they’re no longer included in “the rortsphere” ?
I would suggest that the numbers of voters outside of “the rortsphere” has become sufficient to exile the coalition to the outer island for a time.
Morrison did one good thing for Australia and that is to show that, if the voters get it wrong, it can be very wrong.
The only remaining queries remaining in the NSW political “rortsphere” are the effect of OPV and the seemingly insurmountable margins to overcome in some electorates to expunge the last remaining coalition government from the mainland.
There are a few more surprises to be revealed before this election day is finished.
Happy Democracy Day to NSW bludgers. The better half is already up and out to mark names off rolls.
Some Crosby Textor internal polling leaked to the AFR..
Liberal Party officials in NSW are bracing for significant swings in crucial marginal electorates on Saturday, a result which would mean the Coalition is out of government in every mainland state in the country and Labor’s untested leader Chris Minns takes the helm of the nation’s biggest state.
Internal polling circulated to senior Liberal figures suggested there could be swings against the party of up to 8 per cent in the state’s most marginal seats. After 12 years in which it has spent more on infrastructure than any state government before it, if the polling is accurate it would very likely prove decisive for a government that holds only 45 of 93 electorates.
However, Liberal officials – speaking anonymously, as party rules preclude them from commenting publicly – said the government had not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power.
“We’re still absolutely all about winning … it’s not over until 6pm on Saturday night,” one official told AFR Weekend.
The polling, conducted for the party by CT Group, showed Labor could have extended its lead to 54-46 on a two-party preferred basis, an advantage which could put NSW Labor on track to win eight or nine seats to form a minority government.
https://www.afr.com/politics/nsw-liberals-fear-revolt-in-key-marginal-seats-20230324-p5cv2c
For all its faults, today shows why democracy is much betterer than autocracy.
Best wishes to all who participate, especially to scrutineers, how to vote hander outers, and that vital cog of democracy, the sausage sizzlers.
Thank you to Mr. Bowes for providing this wonderful resource for election tragics like me. I’ve made a modest donation, and I hope others who are in a position to do so will also support his work.
When I pre-polled a few days ago, the ALP, Lib and Green HTV people out the front of the booth were all having a relaxed and friendly chat together. How I wish our democracy always functioned like that! It looks very likely now that Labor will win minority government, at the very least, based on last night’s Newspoll data. I expect there will be a fair bit of hubris on this blog later tonight as the results come in. And I’ll share in the delight in seeing an LNP government fall. But unlike the elation I felt after the election of Albanese, I can’t see anything at all to get excited about with a Minns government. Minns has run a successful campaign, he deserves great credit for leading Labor out of the wilderness. The previous 6 NSW ALP leaders never won an election, or even got to fight one. But what will Minns actually achieve in the next 4 years? A successful marketing plan to win an election won’t fix the state’s problems. Minns has already squandered golden political opportunities to reform land taxation and gambling. He’s indicated that building of new transport infrastructure will be scaled back. He will inherit massive state debt built up during the pandemic, with the growing interest payments to go with it. Higher wages and more staff for our hospitals and schools are laudable objectives, but where will the staff and money come from? I wish the likely new government well, but my expectations are low.
‘sprocket_ says:
Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 8:54 am
Some Crosby Textor internal polling leaked to the AFR..
Liberal Party officials in NSW are bracing for significant swings in crucial marginal electorates on Saturday, a result which would mean the Coalition is out of government in every mainland state in the country and Labor’s untested leader Chris Minns takes the helm of the nation’s biggest state.
Internal polling circulated to senior Liberal figures suggested there could be swings against the party of up to 8 per cent in the state’s most marginal seats. After 12 years in which it has spent more on infrastructure than any state government before it, if the polling is accurate it would very likely prove decisive for a government that holds only 45 of 93 electorates.
However, Liberal officials – speaking anonymously, as party rules preclude them from commenting publicly – said the government had not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power.
“We’re still absolutely all about winning … it’s not over until 6pm on Saturday night,” one official told AFR Weekend.
The polling, conducted for the party by CT Group, showed Labor could have extended its lead to 54-46 on a two-party preferred basis, an advantage which could put NSW Labor on track to win eight or nine seats to form a minority government.
https://www.afr.com/politics/nsw-liberals-fear-revolt-in-key-marginal-seats-20230324-p5cv2c‘
——————————————————
Thanks. Note the little hits along the way… ‘the untested’ Minns and ‘After 12 years in which it has spent more on infrastructure than any state government before it…’
The bastard journo could not help himself.
98.6
While buoyed by Newspoll, the Eeyore in me has me predicting a Labor minority while still hoping for a majority, so Labor minority is my prediction.
A 2PP of 54 would normally be a landslide, e.g. Howard 1996. For some reason those who know say that this translates into a bare majority. NSW is not gerrymandered or mal-apportioned so there must be something about the distribution of seat majorities from the last election that means there are few Coalition-held seats seats on margins under abour 4%.
The margin of error on this Newspoll is just under 3%, so it could be 51% or 57%. The latter seems unlikely. Hopefully 51 is enough t9 get over the line. It normally is.
Anyway, best wishes to all those working at polling places for Labor today.
The editor of the DT has read the Newspoll tea leaves and decided to remain neutral today.
Got some Liberal ads appearing for their candidate for Camden.
my pick around Around 8:15 pm tonight , result will be clear NSW is getting a new government
AFR, per sprocket:
“However, Liberal officials – speaking anonymously, as party rules preclude them from commenting publicly …”
Hey, they’re the party of ‘Free Speech’ … aren’t they?
“… said the government had not given up hope and noted the swings in some seats were within a margin of error, suggesting the Coalition could defy the odds and hang on to power.”
That’s what they told Sam Maiden before the Federal election.
She’s still scraping the egg off her face.
Steve777 @ #81 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 8:07 am
For all those stressing about minority government, relax. It’s going to be a landslide to Labor, just as the polls indicate.
No need to be modest any more, we’ve got the f**king Tories on the run.
An honestly, how hard is it going to be for Minns to run a government far more efficient, genuinely reformist and compassionate than the current clusterf**k? Even if he does badly by “true believer” standards, it’s going to be so much better than the current rubbish.
Minority government is fine anyway.
Off to vote very shortly in the seat of Wahroonga – safe Liberal, nothing much will change here in leafy North Shore of Sydney, won’t be indicative at all of what’s going on in other parts of Sydney.
Hoping for a Labor win tonight, of whatever form, majority or minority, don’t care which one really.
And a big thanks once again to William for this blog and the work he’ll do tonight updating the results in his usual comprehensive way.
Pokies bosses breathing easier today after newspoll.
March 25 also is an auspicious day as it marks the destruction of the One Ring in Mt Doom and the defeat of Sauron 😉
If The Liberals lose you can bet they will drop pokies reform from their policies as quick smart. The SMH will probably publish a sanctimonious rant about now the voters of NSW are a pack of gambling addicts, selfish or brainwashed by Clubs NSW. And then this will all be quietly forgotten.
Hoping for a double celebration this evening.
Anthony Green calling it for Labor around 6pm (in Perth) by which time Fremantle have established a winning lead over North Melbourne.
Sadly, less confident about the latter.
Hark, is that the distant rumble of paper shredders that I hear?
Twisting an old quote…”wouldn’t it be great if Admirals had to run sausage sizzles to buy submarines and Public Education was fairly funded?”
Big shout-out to my local P&C..
“After 12 years in which it has spent more on infrastructure than any state government before it.”
From the Financial Review.
What pathetic mindless barracking! Every government spends more on everything. It’s called inflation.
“…the untested Minns” – of course he is untested. Elections are about one thing and one thing only – throwing out rubbish governments. Even the deadest of die hard supporters know they cannot guarantee how well their Man (Yes, man, we live in Australia) will go.
Go Labor. Go Greens. But above all else – Fry LNP! Good luck NSW. We (read me) are (am) depending on you.
One job: Turf the LNP. Get it done. Make it 55/45 just to be sure.
One other thing, while I hold the conch: In the lead up to the Victorian election we had a couple of absolute tossers posting incessant ‘hung parliament’ nonsense. It pains me to admit that the NSW blog has been devoid of that. Well done, one and all.
goll (AnonBlock)
Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 8:36 am
Comment #74
Socrates @ 7.49am
“the rortsphere”
How many voters have decided that they’re no longer included in “the rortsphere” ?
I keep getting service NSW ads on Facebook telling me there are thousands and thousands of goodies for me. Click the link.
Not 1, not 1 so called goody that I can claim.
Of course if I had young children then there’s rivers of taxpayer funded gold.
The biggest laugh I get is the $150/child back to school voucher.
I remember various liberal opposition leaders over the years of the Carr etc governments screeching about the $50 back to school vouchers.
Fatty canned them when he got in and Dorky brought in the $150 vouchers. That’s on top of all the other family oriented vouchers.
Good riddance if the polls are accurate.
As I posted in open thread Liberal leaders and ex-PMs such as Abbott, Morrison and Dutton are person non grata in NSW election campaign and 2 of them belong to NSW. They are especially non grata in North Shore and Eastern suburbs. Make what you want of it.
I noticed another thing. All the religious leaders belonging to or affiliated LNP were quite unlike 2022 federal election.
Blockqoute didn’t work. Hmm. I have a new phone. A pixel 7. Would that make a difference?
Must have had a typo. As you were.