Newspoll will presumably be with us later today – for now, the news media relates the following:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Coalition “has all but written off the prospect of forming a majority but sees a best-case scenario where it wins the new seat of Leppington in south-west Sydney, fends off the teals in the north and can cobble together enough support from independents to form minority government”. Labor sources are “bemused by the government’s campaign tactics in the final days, with Perrottet visiting reasonably safe Liberal seats such as South Coast, Camden, Ryde and Drummoyne”. Both parties consider the situation unclear due to “a large cohort of undecided voters, a degree of ‘softness’ among those who are leaning one way or another, and the unpredictability of optional preferential voting”.
• As reported on Sky News yesterday, the day before and on Tuesday, polling that was apparently conducted for the Minerals Council Australia shows the Liberals leading 51-49 ahead in Penrith and 59-41 in Winston Hills; Labor leading 52-48 in Leppington and 53-47 in Goulburn; a 50-50 contest between the Liberals and independent Michael Regan in Wakehurst; teal independent Helen Conway leading the Liberals 54-46 in North Shore; and Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward leading Labor 53-47 in Kiama (which probably should be higher going off the primary votes), with the Liberals a very distant third. Some issues with the polling should be noted: parties who weren’t running in the seats in question were offered as response options, and respondents were seemingly primed to respond negatively on Matt Kean’s performance by being asked if they “agree that (he) is responsible for pushing up energy prices”. The result in Kean’s own seat of Hornsby had him leading just 53-47, a swing of 14%. One Nation were consistently credited with strong results, peaking at 17% in Penrith and 15% in Hornsby, where they respectively polled 7.2% and 4.5% in 2019. The polls seemingly covered several other seats as well, so there may be more to come.
• Stephen Rice of The Australian reports Liberal sources believe the party’s determination to bar Gareth Ward from parliament if he retains Kiama as an independent has boosted his local support, with one quoted citing resentment at being “told what to do or who they can vote for”.
The Morning After
Song by Maureen McGovern
There’s got to be a morning after
If we can hold on through the night
We have a chance to find the sunshine
Let’s keep on looking for the light
Oh, can’t you see the morning after?
It’s waiting right outside the storm
Why don’t we cross the bridge together
And find a place that’s safe and warm?
It’s not too late, we should be giving
Only with love can we climb
It’s not too late, not while we’re living
Let’s put our hands out in time
There’s got to be a morning after
We’re moving closer to the shore
I know we’ll be there by tomorrow
And we’ll escape the darkness
We won’t be searching anymore
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
Re Sprocket @9:39
”ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 others 16”
My back of the envelope calculation for 2PP:
ALP: 38 + 0 + 9 + 8 = 55
So 55-45 ? That would surely be a landslide if it comes off.
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:59 pm
The Morning After
Song by Maureen McGovern
There’s got to be a morning after
If we can hold on through the night
We have a chance to find the sunshine
Let’s keep on looking for the light
Oh, can’t you see the morning after?
It’s waiting right outside the storm
Why don’t we cross the bridge together
And find a place that’s safe and warm?
It’s not too late, we should be giving
Only with love can we climb
It’s not too late, not while we’re living
Let’s put our hands out in time
There’s got to be a morning after
We’re moving closer to the shore
I know we’ll be there by tomorrow
And we’ll escape the darkness
We won’t be searching anymore
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
There’s got to be a morning after
(There’s got to be a morning after)
————–
Take a look around you boy, it’s bound to scare you, boy
And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
How you don’t believe
We’re on the eve of destruction
New thread.
The Maureen McGovern song was, of course, featured in the Poseidon Adventute, a movie about a shipwreck.
Pretty much sums up the liberal party if the Newspoll is right,
No surprise.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:35 pm
Labor majority govt on those figures is my call 98.6 . Its not really rocket science to make that call.
The death eaters are back!!!!!!!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I admire your courage to post that after everything I see that you go through on PB.
I shall take you off the Sitting on the Fence list and put you on the Labor to Win list.
They fell into a burnin’ ring of fire
They went down, down, down
And the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
June Carter, Merle Kilgore
Assuming an exhaustion rate of 50% for Independents and others and a rate of about 40% for Green voters, I still get Labor 2PP ~ 54%.
”
Steve777says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:04 pm
Re Sprocket @9:39
”ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 others 16”
My back of the envelope calculation for 2PP:
ALP: 38 + 0 + 9 + 8 = 55
So 55-45 ? That would surely be a landslide if it comes off.
”
How can you come up with that 2PP when it is OPV?
I get NSW Labor has advantage with its higher Primary but I don’t get 2PP of 55-45 because Greens voters had a exhaustion rate of about 40% in last 3 elections and hence they won’t transfer 9 of the 11 % to Labor. And other had a exhaustion rate of 65% .
So over 54 2PP for Labor looks questionable.
Jeebus Lars
1) I presume you are lucky enough to have not needed a women’s shelter since 2011: Prue Goward closed them all down.
2) I presume that you have been lucky enough not to run a small business, and been ripped off by the privatised icare , thanks to Dom Perottet. He gave a large International Insurance company (removed name as William does not need the agro) the contract for “Workers Compensation ” insurance.
They made most of their money out of small businesses “defaulting” on payments, of the order of less than $100, because the businesses were never told that the contributions that they needed to pay had been recalculated. The first that was known was a summons to the Downing Centre court, whereby the debt collecting arm of said international business had already racked up some $4 K in “legal fees”. Our business did not go broke – we were smart enough to know the the NSW Coalition government had contracted out all its services to private operators – and so we sold.
3) You have been lucky enough not to be homeless under the coalition government. All the homelessness services are in the centre of Sydney, where homeless people tend to congregate. However, under Prue Goward’s “Go home, stay home” (alright it was “Going Home Staying Home”) policy, homeless people were moved out of Sydney, because as Prue said “they came from the suburbs, they need to go back there”. There are no services in the suburbs for homeless people because: Fuckn logistics!!!!!!!!
You may be happy to see no more homeless people in tents in Belmore park, but do you ever wonder where they have all gone?
So, I am absolutely understanding that you and OC feel that you suffered under the hands of a ruthless party machine 11 years ago, and no, Labor is not perfect, but do you guys really want to see the poor / homeless / small businesses suffer just to punish the NSW Labor party?
Where is the Chinese Restaurant PPY INN?
I note the signage is in red – the colour of the ALP campaign
Perhaps the couple photographed with the spinster should have been photographed at the HA HA Chinese Restaurant – with blue colouring
One of my all time favourite crooners Johnny Mathis sang this song many years ago but never has it been more appropriate than now.
Guess its over, call it a day,
Sorry that it had to end this way,
No reason to pretend, We knew it had to end someday,
Its over.
Title:- Too Much Too Little Too Late
My branch secretary – George Houssos (husband of Courtney, and best mates with both Minns and Clements) – had a theory which he shared with me a few weeks ago: the campaign was tight, but there would be a very late break to labor and it end up being a landslide.
We shall see.
Sportsbet odds have come way in for Labor win and Majority.
To form Gov’t – Labor $1.10, LNP $7.50
Type of Govt- Labor Minority $1.95, Labor Majority $2.50
I took a position on a Labor Majority at $2.75 last week and doubled down at $3.25 earlier this week, it hit $3.50 last night or this morning i can’t quite remember.
Andrew_Earlwood @ Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:30 pm
“My branch secretary – George Houssos (husband of Courtney, and best mates with both Minns and Clements) – had a theory which he shared with me a few weeks ago: the campaign was tight, but there would be a very late break to labor and it end up being a landslide.
We shall see.”
I was thinking a late swing to reach majority. But landslide is another story.
Not counting chickens yet. I am still scarred by the Shorten loss.
wranslide says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 10:49 pm
Not counting chickens yet. I am still scarred by the Shorten loss.
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I would think almost all PBers hold that thought at the back of their mind.
We may not be counting our chickens but we certainly have been counting our percentages and 2PPs.
pokies bosses breathing easier today after news poll?
I rest my case.