UPDATE: The Financial Review today brings a Freshwater Strategy poll showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the start of the campaign, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and independents 16% (up two) – I assume all respondents were given the independents option, as distinct from the ballot paper-based approach of Resolve Strategic. Dominic Perrottet’s lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier 45-40, in from 46-34 last time. The poll was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1100.
Some notable observations from news coverage over the past few days:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports there is “deep fear within (Labor) party ranks that the contest is perilously close, and many expect only the narrowest of wins or a minority Chris Minns-led government when it should be a landslide”. While Chris Minns is rated highly, the article lays out a list of perceived organisational deficiencies at the heart of a low-impact Labor campaign. Several teal independents are rated a show, but the Nationals “could regain Barwon or Murray” from ex-Shooters independents, though seemingly not Orange.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Monday that the Liberals were “increasingly confident that they will be able to stave off a teal wave, however Lane Cove, held by the Planning Minister Anthony Roberts, is seen as the most at-risk”. Labor is said to be at least hopeful of recovering Balmain from the Greens.
• The Daily Telegraph has an instructive heat map illustrating which electorates have been most visited by the leaders during the campaign. Parramatta, Riverstone and Penrith have seen the most action; the Liberals have put more effort into East Hills, and Labor more into neighbouring Oatley; the Liberals would seem to be concerned about Drummoyne; and neither side is taking Leppington for granted.
Further opinion poll findings:
• The latest Essential Research poll posed questions relating to state politics to its cohort of 708 New South Wales respondents, finding Dominic Perrottet with a 36-33 lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier. Forty-one per cent expected Labor to win, against 35% for the Coalition. Thirty-six per cent said Labor’s promise of no future privatisations made them more likely to vote for them, against 10% for more likely to vote Coalition; 31% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to its promise to scrap the public sector wages cap, against 13% for the Coalition; 16% said they were more likely to vote Coalition due to their promised savings fund for children, against 26% for Labor; and 16% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to the Coalition’s commitment to a cashless gambling card, against 31% for Labor (findings I find highly unintuitive in the latter two cases).
• The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday had further results from its Resolve Strategic poll found 43% in favour of the proposed children’s future fund and 30% opposed, while 50% backed Labor’s promised Energy Security Corporation with 14% opposed. Labor led 35% to 29% as best party to handle cost of living, while the Coalition led 38% to 33% on the economy and 36% to 32% on infrastructure. Labor as usual had strong leads on health (39% to 29%), education (40% to 31%) and climate change (30% to 18%).
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 844 respondents credited Labor with a 53.5-46.5 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 34% and Greens 13%, with Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 52-48 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted over a week ago, from March 10 to 14.
Based on press behavior, Labor will win.
‘A bunch of centre unity union secretaries – all whom either want to be an MLC or senator, or anoint someone – are going to gift control of the party to the left … because some notion of meritocracy?’
As Don Henly sung ‘those days are gone forever, I should have just let them go.’ The modern NSW Right has as much factional backbone as a Vichy General. When the Prime Minister calls, the bosses will fall into line. The only question is that Albanese surely wouldn’t want to make factional interventions too often, one or two a term at most. But the NSW General Secretary seems worth it.
NSW election: slim rightwing majority in upper house is under threat, polls suggest
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/23/nsw-state-election-2023-slim-rightwing-majority-upper-house-under-threat-polls-suggest?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16795659527695&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2023%2Fmar%2F23%2Fnsw-state-election-2023-slim-rightwing-majority-upper-house-under-threat-polls-suggest
I would ROFLMAO if Mark Latham lost his power in the Upper House after the election.
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Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 8:21 pm
“ So I wouldn’t completely discount that the party chooses the best person for the job rather than putting in a factional fix.”
Bonkers.
A bunch of centre unity union secretaries – all whom either want to be an MLC or senator, or anoint someone – are going to gift control of the party to the left … because some notion of meritocracy?
That’s even more bonkers than Albo and Marles delivering ScoMo a ‘legacy’ via the AUKUS clustercuss.
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Unfortunately Albanese and Marles sort of delivered AUKUS Clustercuss bonkers. That is a much bigger bonkers than delivering George Simon as NSW Labor secretary bonkers.
NSW Labor specialise in bonkers
So I won’t be holding my breath. 🙂
The only thing I am waiting to see is whether NSW people will deliver bonkers on election Day.
Bonkers Ven – a little recreational gaanja tonight?
Alpo says:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 8:04 pm
The opinion polls seem to be consistent in giving the ALP as winners.
The betting agencies are well in favour of the ALP
Does anyone expect an Opus Dei’s mediated Perrottet’s “miracle”?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
To be canonized as a saint, ordinarily at least two miracles must have been performed through the intercession of the Blessed after their death, but for beati confessors, i.e., beati who were not declared martyrs, only one miracle is required.
Who has died lately that needs a miracle or two for canonization as a saint?
If we listen to former PM and former trainee priest Tony Abbott’s ramblings, Cardinal George Pell should be our next saint after Australia’s first Saint Mary MacKillop.
With Scomo’s ‘miracle’ happening too early to qualify for Pell’s canonization, perhaps Opus Dei Dom might pull one out of the biretta this Saturday.
At worst, maybe someone will give Pell a knighthood posthumously.
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Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 9:51 pm
Bonkers Ven – a little recreational gaanja tonight?
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Nah! I am a teetotaler. But some comments make me intoxicated. 🙂
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98.6says:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 9:58 pm
Alpo says:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 8:04 pm
The opinion polls seem to be consistent in giving the ALP as winners.
The betting agencies are well in favour of the ALP
Does anyone expect an Opus Dei’s mediated Perrottet’s “miracle”?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
To be canonized as a saint, ordinarily at least two miracles must have been performed through the intercession of the Blessed after their death, but for beati confessors, i.e., beati who were not declared martyrs, only one miracle is required.
Who has died lately that needs a miracle or two for canonization as a saint?
If we listen to former PM and former trainee priest Tony Abbott’s ramblings, Cardinal George Pell should be our next saint after Australia’s first Saint Mary MacKillop.
With Scomo’s ‘miracle’ happening too early to qualify for Pell’s canonization, perhaps Opus Dei Dom might pull one out of the biretta this Saturday.
At worst, maybe someone will give Pell a knighthood posthumously.
”
98.6
If DoPe wins this Saturday Abbott will mention 3 miracles in Abbott, Morrison and DoPe victories to qualify Pell for Sainthood. 🙂
And I won’t be surprised if Abbott calls for it on that basis.
Otherwise how can you have Howard, Abbott and Morrison as PMs of Australia and DoPe as Premier of NSW?
“Unfortunately Albanese and Marles sort of delivered AUKUS Clustercuss bonkers.”
Albo and Marles have made an announcement.
The third different submarine announcement in a decade. They haven’t actually landed a thing yet. Let’s see where this all is in 5 years time shall we?
By we digress. This thread is really about an election that will test whether Minns’ small target campaign can actually work in an optional preferential voting system where the ‘government is on the nose’ sentiment and ‘it’s time’ factors don’t seem to be a palpable as they really should be.
Ven at 9.51 says
98.6 If DoPe wins this Saturday Abbott will mention 3 miracles in Abbott, Morrison and DoPe victories to qualify Pell for Sainthood.
And I won’t be surprised if Abbott calls for it on that basis.
Otherwise how can you have Howard, Abbott and Morrison as PMs of Australia and DoPe as Premier of NSW?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Will the Catholic church accept a Pentacostal miracle as worthy of canonization?
So when should we expect Newspoll to drop?
Although I’m a lurker and infrequently post, put me down for a slim Labor majority.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 10:13 pm
This thread is really about an election that will test whether Minns’ small target campaign can actually work in an optional preferential voting system where the ‘government is on the nose’ sentiment and ‘it’s time’ factors don’t seem to be a palpable as they really should be.
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Once a government has been in office for two or more terms many query whether the opposition can call on the ‘It’s Time’ factor to help them win government.
Gough Whitlam was perhaps the first to use it anywhere in the world and with the help of entertainers like Bobby Limb, Dawn Lake, Little Pattie and a cast too numerous to mention here it did the trick.
We don’t seem to engage our entertainers or celebrities in that way any more, maybe for the better.
However, we must always remember that term, ‘Beware the silent majority’.
Labor majority, but less than 10.
And then a landslide Labor win at the next NSW election. (Basically, a repeat of Victoria 2014 and 2018.)
But what do I know? [Rhetorical question]
The emerging pattern with contemporary Labor governments is a small win at the first election which is then built on over successive terms. With the polls in mind Labor TPP will probably be 51-53, maybe 54+ if the night is a real good surprise! Interested to see how the Independents do, but I really hope OPV doesn’t screw it all up.
So, I’m predicting a small Labor majority.
Lets hope the leaked seat target list signals the Liberals are deeply worried.
Labor to fall short of a majority by 1 to 2 seats but form government propped up by the Greens, Greenwich and Piper.
Labor to govern in minority.
Booth captain at Brisbane Water Secondary College (aka Woy Woy HS) on Saturday.
Could be interesting if Ward wins Kiama is banned from parliament and seat totals are deadlocked 46 all.
‘The emerging pattern with contemporary Labor governments is a small win at the first election which is then built on over successive terms.’
That’s interesting, so here’s the pattern (‘yes’ stands for 2nd term bigger majority) since about 1980
NSW – Wran (yes). Carr (yes)
Vic – Cain (equal), Bracks (yes), Andrews (yes)
Qld – Goss (equal), Beattie (yes), Palasczuck (yes)
WA – Burke (equal), Gallop (equal), McGowan (yes)
SA – run out of concentration.
So, 6 of the last 7 new ALP Governments in the big States over the last 25 years have had bigger victories in their 2nd election.
Conversely though, all of the big ALP State wins, apart from Victoria last year, have occurred with a Federal Coalition Government in place. And the ‘equals’ occurred in the 1980s and 1990s when there was a Federal Labor Government.
So presuming Minns wins and Federal Labor is re-elected, it may be harder to get that bigger 2nd term majority.
Of course, the very limited pattern for Federal Labor Governments is the reverse. The last three went backwards at their second election.
I don’t get the Howard throwback desire for the LNP to push him as some kind of heroic, loved figure in Western Sydney.
Howard won the outer Western Sydney seats by getting lucky with Tampa & 911, holding them for one election before Rudd swept him and the Liberals out. In 07 it was solid red in Western Sydney unless you count the AFL loving bible belt Hills District and Hughes which goes as far South-East as Woronora.
Even in the horrendous 2013 result there was still a solid block of red in the 7 districts around Prospect Reservoir.
Most Millennials’ only view on him is he’s the Bush arselicker that got us into Iraq and who wrecked the housing market with his insane negative gearing & capital gains tax policy.
New thread.
Edit: Labor can’t rely on Greenwich for support.
Put me down for a Labor majority
I think a lot of people made up their minds about this government some time ago. Not all of them will switch their vote to Labor, eg Perrotet sandbagging in Chatswood today.
‘…
Koalas (endangered), south-eastern glossy black-cockatoo (vulnerable) and the Australian painted snipe (endangered) had the greatest overall area where they live affected by logging.
…’
Something not quite right here. Painted Snipe are a wetland species.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/24/more-than-half-nsw-forests-lost-since-1750-and-logging-locking-in-species-extinction-study-finds
Timing is everything …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-24/ex-nsw-labor-mnister-ian-macdonald-jailed-again/102142928
NSW Labor. Back to the Future.
Oh, it burns.
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subgeometersays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 11:24 am
Put me down for a Labor majority
I think a lot of people made up their minds about this government some time ago. Not all of them will switch their vote to Labor, eg Perrotet sandbagging in Chatswood today.
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I think you have to post in NSW thread. 🙂