Federal polls: Resolve, Essential and more (open thread)

Multiple new polls defy emerging talk of an end to the Albanese government’s honeymoon.

Two new federal opinion poll results today:

• The long-awaited set of voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic finds Labor down a point on last month to 39%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up three to 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. The Coalition gets a particularly bad set of numbers from Queensland, where they are down 11 points to 24% with Labor steady on 39%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it at close to 60-40 in favour of Labor. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% and up one on disapproval to 31%, while Peter Dutton is up three to 32% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 55-23 to 51-22. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1600.

• The fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor up two to 34%, the Coalition down one to 31%, the Greens up two to 14% and One Nation down two to 5%. Labor’s lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure widens from 49-44 to 52-43, the balance being undecided. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

As was the case with the Resolve Strategic poll with numbers published on Saturday, the Essential Research poll featured further results on AUKUS, finding 40% agreement with contention that the submarine agreement would “make Australia more secure” (down four from November) versus 21% for less secure (up five) and 40% saying it would have no impact (up one). Respondents were also less inclined to rate that China was a threat needing to be confronted than in November, down six to 20%, and correspondingly more favourable to the alternative view that it was a “complex relationship to be managed”, up six to 67%, with an unchanged 13% considering it “a positive opportunity to be realised”. Twenty-six per cent considered the purchase worth the expense, 27% felt the submarines were necessary but the expense too great, and 28% believed the submarines were unnecessary.

An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes, the first such since February last year, found Anthony Albanese’s biggest strength to be that he was in control of his team (59%), while 54% felt he changed his opinions too much and 49% rated him out of touch with ordinary people. Peter Dutton scored weak results across the board, his strongest being that 47% felt him in control of his team, and his weakest being 61% for out of touch and 34% or 35% for visionary, understanding of women’s issues and more honest than other politicians.

In other poll news, JWS Research finds 42% favouring a yes vote in an Indigenous voice referendum, down one since August, with 28% for no, down five; and the latest Roy Morgan voting intention results, conducted from March 6 to 12, have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34% and Greens 12.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,285 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve, Essential and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 26 of 26
1 … 25 26

  2. ‘Federal polls: Resolve, Essential and more (open thread)

    Multiple new polls defy emerging talk of an end to the Albanese government’s honeymoon.’ (from Mr Bowe’s Intro)
    ——————————————–
    If you want to have a bit of a laugh, Google: “Albanese government honeymoon over’ and check out the names of the journos.
    Bandt, casting his lot with the motley melange of right wing scribbler wannabes and Sky silly people, announced back in December that Albanese’s honeymoon was over.

  3. OK, I’ll bite.

    I asked Bing Chat, “Is the honeymoon over for the Albanese government?”
    Before reading the reply, it’s worth noting that Bing Chat would be scraping the internet for its opinion, reflecting published opinion pieces, and not necessarily the average voter’s opinion, which might be more accurately read in polls such as Newspoll.

    In any case, this is what it answered.
    —
    Q: Is the honeymoon over for the Albanese government?

    A: Yes, according to an article by The Saturday Paper, the honeymoon period for Anthony Albanese’s government lasted longer than expected but no government that is attempting to do things, no matter how tentatively, can avoid losing something in the polls. Peter Dutton, in his party room, summed it up as the “gloss starting to wear off” thanks to what he says are broken promises on soaring energy prices, rising interest rates and crippling cost-of-living pressures.
    (1) https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2023/03/11/the-honeymoon-over-anthony-albanese
    (2) https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/honeymoon-is-over-for-albaneses-labor,17247
    (3) https://neoskosmos.com/en/2022/08/08/dialogue/the-albanese-governments-honeymoon-i-think-not/
    (4) https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2023/01/01/anthony-albanese-2023/
    (5) https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-end-of-albanese-s-other-honeymoon-20230319-p5ctbv.html

  5. frednk @ #1237 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 3:37 pm

    Senator Henderson lost the popular vote in Geelong (house of representatives) so she was gifted a senate seat, she is well in with one of the Liberal factions.

    John Pesutto is smart enough to know the party is going down a dead end.

    Perhaps Henderson has backed the wrong horse. I don’t know. But it does seem strange she burst into tears, the fact that she sent text messages in support of Moira Deeming is public knowledge.

    Maybe she is of the same view as me that, even though she disagrees with Deeming’s religious based views, she shouldn’t be expelled from the partyroom for associating with neo-nazi’s given they apparently gate-crashed the rally and she’s spoken out strongly against the movement ….?

  7. I asked Bing Chat, “Is the honeymoon over for the Albanese government?”

    Now ask it “Is the honeymoon over for the Peter Dutton led opposition government?”.

  10. A R @ #1257 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 4:25 pm

    I asked Bing Chat, “Is the honeymoon over for the Albanese government?”

    Now ask it “Is the honeymoon over for the Peter Dutton led opposition government?”.

    Bing Chat replied as follows:

    “According to an article by The Sydney Morning Herald, it looks like Albanese and Labor’s election honeymoon is over(1). However, Peter Dutton’s net performance rating is largely unchanged at minus 16 percentage points(2).”
    (1) https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-honeymoon-period-is-over-but-dutton-still-trails-20230220-p5cm1h.html
    (2) https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-dire-straits,16620
    (3) https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/feb/07/bipartisanship-peter-dutton-opposition-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-vote
    (4) https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-primary-vote-has-slipped-but-it-continues-to-hold-a-significant-lead-over-the-coalition-new-polling-reveals-20220919-p5bjai.html

  11. Boerwar @ #1258 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 5:26 pm

    Maybe Rex wants us to talk about his Henderson baits rather than talk about Labor’s initiative in suppressing neonazis?

    I was the first one to call out the neo-nazi salutes and called on the Vic govt to ban it, which they are going to do.

    I remember being chastised by bludgers for that call as well.

  12. Rex

    ‘Maybe she is of the same view as me that, even though she disagrees with Deeming’s religious based views, she shouldn’t be expelled from the partyroom for associating with neo-nazi…’

    Actually, she’s being expelled for being anti trans – what view do you have of that?

  13. zoomster @ #1262 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 5:43 pm

    Rex

    ‘Maybe she is of the same view as me that, even though she disagrees with Deeming’s religious based views, she shouldn’t be expelled from the partyroom for associating with neo-nazi…’

    Actually, she’s being expelled for being anti trans – what view do you have of that?

    If that’s the official charge, I have no issue with it.

    Can you provide a link/quote to support that supposed official position ?

  14. The 1st honeymoon for Albanese/labor government will end in 2025, when the 2nd term honeymoon for the Albanese/Labor government starts

  15. Rex

    ‘Mr Pesutto said Ms Deeming’s association with organisers with links to extremists, including neo-Nazis and white supremacists, necessitated her expulsion. He added that he could not believe she was unaware of their history.’

    https://www.afr.com/politics/liberal-mp-s-position-untenable-after-nazi-rally-20230320-p5cthw

    It isn’t what happened at the rally he is saying he objected to, but her association with it full stop.

    According to ‘The Age’ (paywalled) Deeming was given the option to disassociate herself from the anti trans rally and its organisers but refused to do this.

    Rex, don’t you think you should do just a little research before you get on bandwagons?

  16. So, she’s being expelled for being an associate of someone who is an associate of the neo-nazi’s.

    That’s a bit of a stretch.

    Still think it’s a flimsy charge.

  17. zoomstersays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:53 pm

    Rex

    …

    Rex, don’t you think you should do just a little research before you get on bandwagons?

    But that’s not how reflexes work.

  19. Rex,

    No, she isn’t. She is being expelled for associating with people she must have known to be far right extremists and whom she is still refusing to condemn.

    If you want to keep supporting her, fine – but don’t dare pretend that you are any kind of progressive if you do.

  22. The honeymoon is finally over for Albanese and Labor. And they are now settling into a nice long constructive marriage with the Australian people.

  23. Rex Douglassays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:57 pm

    So, she’s being expelled for being an associate of someone who is an associate of the neo-nazi’s.

    That’s a bit of a stretch.

    Still think it’s a flimsy charge.

    Says the man who happily smears anyone he perceives as having a link to the fossil fuel industry no matter how tenuous. 😆

  25. Late Riser,it looks to me that I’m somehow missing everything except the comments,so to respond to you I have to go o the bottom of the page to comment .
    I’m using Firefox btw

  26. These Yanks are crazy.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/principal-forced-out-after-students-shown-michelangelo-s-david-20230325-p5cv7o.html

    The moral furore over a teacher showing 6th graders the David is dumb enough. The reveal that the Renaissance Art course is actually part of the conservative-set curriculum (presumably because of the Christian religious connections) makes it even dumber.

    And these guys dare complain about “cancel culture”.

  27. Arkysays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:40 pm

    These Yanks are crazy.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/principal-forced-out-after-students-shown-michelangelo-s-david-20230325-p5cv7o.html

    The moral furore over a teacher showing 6th graders the David is dumb enough. The reveal that the Renaissance Art course is actually part of the conservative-set curriculum (presumably because of the Christian religious connections) makes it even dumber.

    And these guys dare complain about “cancel culture”.

    He should have used the Church approved fig leaf version.

    What was he thinking? 😆


  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 5:24 pm

    …
    Maybe she is of the same view as me that, even though she disagrees with Deeming’s religious based views, she shouldn’t be expelled from the partyroom for associating with neo-nazi’s given they apparently gate-crashed the rally and she’s spoken out strongly against the movement ….?

    While the Liberals are a religious based party they have no future.

  30. The thing about the independents winning seats off the Liberals is that they represent as being conservative but not batshit crazy.

  31. Watched a bit of sky news – hilarious – Chris Kenny saying the Libs are too left and need to go right and Barnaby saying we need more coal fired energy.

  33. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 8:43 pm
    Watched a bit of sky news – hilarious – Chris Kenny saying the Libs are too left and need to go right and Barnaby saying we need more coal fired energy.
    ———————-
    Kenny and his ilk need to learn that the Liberal Party’s electorate base is to the left of today’s Liberal Party not because its shifting to the left but because the American Republicans who today’s Liberals look up too have always been to the right of Australian conservatives.

  35. SA leads again. We have legislated the SA Aboriginal Voice To Parliament today.

    I hope the SA Voice breaks the ice for a National Voice. The fact one is up and running may help the national YES vote.

Comments Page 26 of 26
1 … 25 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *