Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW

The first major NSW state poll since the start of the campaign finds a strong gain for the Coalition at the expense of the Greens and independents.

The Sydney Morning Herald breaks the New South Wales election campaign poll drought with a result from Resolve Strategic that suggests the momentum of the campaign has been in favour of the Coalition. Whereas the previous poll of February 22 to 26 was unique among the polls at the start of the campaign in crediting Labor with a strong primary vote, this one has them both at 38%, with the Coalition up six and Labor steady. Making way for the improving Coalition are the Greens, down three to 8%, and independents, down five to 8%, with others up one to 8%. UPDATE: Gorks in comments makes a point I should have picked up on: that “Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions”. No two-party preferred is provided, but I would roughly calculate this at a bit over 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Dominic Perrottet also records a solid improvement in his personal ratings, his combined very good and good result up seven from the previous poll to 52%, while his poor plus very poor rating is down eight to 32%. Chris Minns is up three on very good plus good to 46% and down two on poor plus very poor to 26%, with 28% remaining undecided. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier increases from 38-34 to 40-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

238 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW”

Comments Page 5 of 5
1 4 5
  1. If Latham gets 4 ONs into the Council, it will be one of the great political achievements.

    Of course, he is still an arsehole.

  2. Is it just me or do I detect the slow death by a thousand cuts to the coalition in NSW.
    Almost every post on Poll Bludger refers to another and different embarrassing leak, situation, exposure from or within the Liberal Party.
    Can we put that down to luck or hard work from Labor and Minns?
    Or are we once again being lulled into a gigantic let down equivalent to 2019?
    However, this last week has all the similarities of the last week of the Vic state election where everything seems to be going Labor’s way.
    3 days to go to find out !

  3. Aaron, Kean is way too “woke” for the L/NP base to accept as leader. The hard right in Victoria are already tearing down John Pesutto. If Kean did become leader he would be undermined by members of his own party and News Corp from Day 1.

  4. “Zelenskiy hails EU deal to supply a million rounds of shells as a ‘strategic step’ towards victory”

    Well, that’s a hell of a lot of shells…. Should anyone tell the Russian soldiers waiting in their trenches?

  5. Perrottet or Kean will potentially be contenders for Jim Molan’s Senate seat.
    Mark Coure or Mark Speakman to be Opposition Leader post election.
    Ryan Park or Jason Yat-Sen Li will be Opposition Leader if Minge loses.
    ON potentially getting 3 Upper House seats due to CDP collapse and bleeding of votes from LNP.
    East Hills and Penrith Lib hold.
    Greens retain Balmain and will flip Summer Hill.
    Donato, Dalton and Butler to retain their seats.

  6. If Kean does become Liberal leader after Saturday, the destabilisation from News Corps and 2GB and the right of the Liberal Party will begin immediately.
    As for the revelations about Perrottett’s wife getting special treatment and a priority ambulance, let’s see how much the media runs with this tomorrow. Minns would be well advised to leave it to Ryan Park to toss the dirt around

  7. The story of Dom, Brad, the ambulance commissioner and the expedited ambulance is here. https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/premier-dominic-perrottet-admits-calling-health-minister-brad-hazzard-when-his-wife-was-sick-and-needed-an-ambulance/news-story/9283cef25e219ad47c0d37b759d67b42

    It will be across the media tomorrow, already in the SMH. Unless the DT finds some dirt to tip on Minns in the next few days, it looks like all the available manure is being directed at Perrottet.

  8. “Alpo says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 9:42 pm
    “Zelenskiy hails EU deal to supply a million rounds of shells as a ‘strategic step’ towards victory”

    Well, that’s a hell of a lot of shells…. Should anyone tell the Russian soldiers waiting in their trenches?”

    Sorry guys, wrong comments thread… I am not insinuating that the NSW election is equivalent to the war in Ukraine…. 🙂

  9. I am sure the Murdoch rags will instead be going on about the Minns bus breaking down, funny how the Daily Tele is full of endless pro Dom stories.

  10. People aren’t going to blame Perrottet for trying to get an ambulance for his sick wife; it’s an understandable human act, if it did actually occur that way.

  11. As a Hornsby local, I can well imagine that Kean’s primary and particularly his 2PP % will take a haircut but it has to be acknowledged that he has been an active MLA who has delivered some important “pork” in the shape of the Hornsby Hospital redevelopment. A less active/more anonymous member would most likely cop more of a whacking.

    Having said that, on its current boundaries Hornsby is almost unloseable for the Libs with Hornsby itself (home to a strong Lab/Green vote) divided between this seat and Wahroonga (formerly Ku-ring-gai); and the inclusion of the semi-rural area west of Galston Gorge and the large Liberal fortress of Cherrybrook.

    The political demographics of the central transport corridor north and south of Hornsby are changing with many booths swingy or quite marginal but its not going to be enough to counter the large Lib margin built up in the west of the seat.

  12. But people who’ve had to wait hours for an ambulance might resent the special treatment Mrs Perrottett got because of being the Premier’s wife. Imagine if this was a Labor Premier’s wife, News Ltd would be leading the outrage machine.

  13. OPV seems to be a much more efficient system than Compulsory Preferencing.
    The best of both worlds: FPTP and ranked choice voting

  14. shellbell at 9.16 pm

    The Hanson vote in the 2020 Qld election was 7.1%, a drop of 6.6%/

    According to Dr Bonham’s NSW Legislative Council guide:

    “One Nation narrowly won two seats in 2019 off 6.9% of the vote. This is generally expected to increase or at worst stay level, on the back of dissatisfaction with the government and problems in the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. However there is not a great amount of polling evidence …”

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-2023-legislative-council-preview.html

    There is no evidence because the major polls don’t list Hanson as an option.

    The Hanson/Latham franchise is standing in only 17 lower house seats, but that is 5 more than in 2019. They are also in column Q in the upper house, which may be harder for some less motivated, uneducated voters to find.

    They probably stood in more lower house seats in the 2017 WA election, which was a fiasco, with Hanson hiding from the media. Yet they reached a floor of about 5% in that election.

    The Hanson franchise got 4.1% in the NSW Senate election in 2022, with 3.6% for Palmer and 2.6% for Legalise Cannabis, which did not contest in 2019 and has an instant brand recognition for some types of voters. Dr Bonham implies that Legalise Cannabis could take votes from Hansonites.

    Shooters stood in 25 seats in 2019. There was not much overlap with Hanson, as both stood in only 5 seats in 2019 (Goulburn, Maitland, Murray, Penrith and Wollondilly). No Hansonites now in Goulburn or Murray.

    Dr Bonham expects the Hanson vote to stabilise, but there were not a lot of direct Hanson/Shooters contests in lower house seats. Dissatisfaction with a poor government could be expressed in a bigger swing to Labor.

  15. Don’t get excited about the fish kill being the death knell for the LNP in that electorate. Those folk in such seats will still vote for the Nationals, Shootin’ rootin’ tootin’, or One Nation types. They still won’t vote Labor or Green, and after the election they will whinge ‘cos the gumment never does nothin’.

    Until they actually change their vote the Gumment will continue to ignore them.

    Look at QLD and it’s eternal federal LNP vote!
    —————————–

    My view is seats will be flying everywhere and the LNP will go backwards significantly. The ALP to win majority gumment. Put me in the double down column, 98.6.

    ___————————
    Election night – I have access to a 14 seat private cinema. We’ll be watching Antony Green on the big screen.
    —————————
    Go Greens

  16. I am curious about that article today in the Australian from Troy Bramston (I do not have a subscription naturally) about the issues with the Labor campaign. He is usually fairly well connected (although he does have a historical axe to grind). Any Bludgers able to relay what it was about?

  17. Evan says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 9:59 pm
    I am sure the Murdoch rags will instead be going on about the Minns bus breaking down, funny how the Daily Tele is full of endless pro Dom stories.

    Perhaps the DT intends to ignore the ambulance story but the Oz currently has a headline “Perrottet called minister when wife needed ambulance”.

  18. Wranslide: Troy Bramston claims Labor’s campaign is a train wreck: candidates were preselected far too late, the organisational aspect is terrible, and Labor’s fundraising is way behind the Liberals. Bob Nanva running for the Upper House allegedly hasn’t helped either. Insiders think Minns should be winning this in a landslide.
    As was noted above, Bramston does have an axe to grind with the NSW ALP.

  19. Moderate. you are cooked.4 years ago, when you were a winner, with accurate info from the dark side you were relevant. Now that your side is fucked, you just do snide. Slip back under that rock,sweetheart.

  20. Actually, I can’t believe Perrottet would be stupid enough to seek special treatment for his wife, let alone the practicalities of how it could be arranged by a Minister. That said, he did wear a Nazi uniform etc.. Maybe he might have asked ‘is there anything I can do to expedite the ambulance, without getting into trouble’.

  21. Hulk. I disagree opv makes it very hard to win from behind .. the way to do it is have an instruction to number all boxes.. but a savings provision to make a vote formal to the extent a voters intent can be identified. I think something similar exists in sa

  22. MABWM
    My view is seats will be flying everywhere and the LNP will go backwards significantly. The ALP to win majority gumment. Put me in the double down column, 98.6.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    You were one of the first to say Labor will win gumment, but I’ll put you down as a ‘double downer’.

  23. citizen says:-
    Perhaps the DT intends to ignore the ambulance story but the Oz currently has a headline “Perrottet called minister when wife needed ambulance”.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Not a good headline anyway you look at it.

  24. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 10:49 pm
    Was Hulk Hogan calling Minns “minge” deliberate or a Freudian slip?
    https://youtu.be/ItrrGUzFASk
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Just googled ‘minge’.
    Had to laugh, even at Minns expense.
    (still having a scotch or three which helped with the laughter)

  25. ‘Wranslide: Troy Bramston claims Labor’s campaign is a train wreck: candidates were preselected far too late, the organisational aspect is terrible, and Labor’s fundraising is way behind the Liberals. Bob Nanva running for the Upper House allegedly hasn’t helped either. Insiders think Minns should be winning this in a landslide.

    The campaign can’t all be down to the party organisation. What about the leader? Minns seems curiously diffident , at least in public. That said, the NSW ALP hasn’t run an effective State campaign since 2007. Admittedly, they have had poor hands to play but they still doesn’t seem to have done too well. The last fully competent General Secretary was John Della Bosca, maybe Roozendahl. The rest have either been schemers or a bit dodgy.

  26. Evan says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 10:28 pm
    Wranslide: Troy Bramston claims Labor’s campaign is a train wreck: candidates were preselected far too late, the organisational aspect is terrible, and Labor’s fundraising is way behind the Liberals. Bob Nanva running for the Upper House allegedly hasn’t helped either. Insiders think Minns should be winning this in a landslide.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Once again we hear the same story:”candidates were pre-selected far too late”.
    I’m sure its true but at least the Libs are in the same boat.
    I refer to my previous posts were I explain that a nincompoop, (at this stage), LNP LOTO David Crisafulli, has said he will endorse candidates in many QLD state seats by this Easter (2023) and the rest by the end of the year (2023) for the State election due in October 2024.
    Valuable lessons to be learnt from a nincompoop.

  27. wranslide says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 10:15 pm
    I am curious about that article today in the Australian from Troy Bramston.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Can anyone confirm the rumor that Troy Bramston from the AUS is related to Mavis Bramston from the Mavis Bramston Show from the 1960s?

  28. 98.6
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Just googled ‘minge’.
    Had to laugh, even at Minns expense.
    (still having a scotch or three which helped with the laughter)

    ————
    Oh dear – don’t do that.
    A friend of mine had a job involving a one legged bikini model. He looked at her instagram and tiktok feed…….. Now all he gets is one legged bikini model themed ‘suggestions’……

    You have been warned.

  29. Evan says and I agree with him:
    As for the revelations about Perrottett’s wife getting special treatment and a priority ambulance, let’s see how much the media runs with this tomorrow. Minns would be well advised to leave it to Ryan Park to toss the dirt around.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Wouldn’t be a good look for the LOTO attacking anything to do with the premier’s wife.
    Leave it to Ryan Park ?
    Its a dirty job but someone has to do it.
    Its worth hundreds if not thousands of votes.

  30. ‘Perrottet or Kean will potentially be contenders for Jim Molan’s Senate seat.’

    Matt Kean is interested in entering federal politics but its been consistently reported sources close to him say he has no interest running for the federal Senate.

  31. “Maybe he might have asked ‘is there anything I can do to expedite the ambulance, without getting into trouble’.”

    He didn’t need to say anything at all beyond “My wife is sick in bed, she can’t move, I called for an ambulance but it hasn’t arrived and I don’t know when it will.”

    I’m sure the Ambulance Commissioner had a heart attack the moment he heard his boss the Health Minister relay to him that the Premier’s wife is currently waiting for an ambulance and the Premier is worried about how long it is taking.

    I figure the Ambulance Commissioner then excused himself and very quickly made a discreet enquiry to his operational leaders regarding the possibility of sending an ambulance to the house immediately.

    Political leaders don’t have to give orders for things to start rolling downhill.

  32. I’m actually torn this election of who to vote for.

    I find it very hard to put the Coalition 1, and the ALP as 1 has been easy in the past. However, one of my main interests is public transport, and I have no faith that the ALP will, in complete joy, kill any future PT plans (such as the new business cases for the West Metros, or any of the lines that are on billboards all over Sydney) and take us back to a world where he have no clue and do not act like a modern city.

    I lurk in a PT forum and nearly all of them dislike the ALP because of their antagonism to anything but motorways and buses.

    And I can’t say I don’t disagree with them. The ALP ripped up the tram system in the 60s with absolute glee (even setting the trams on fire; wtf?), had a transport minister (Costa) in the 90s who said “everyone wants to drive”, and have no indications that they are interested in innovation.

    Having met Victor Dominello, and watching Matt Kean, I am (well not necessarily impressed), but happy that they are in touch with reality and want to do their job well for more than just some rich fkrs in the Cayman Islands.

    And the Greens, who in my mind, ought to have a solid pro-PT policy comes out with thought bubbles. How do I know they won’t grind our PT system to a halt too because they saw a butterly?

    Then I met some nurses who said the Coalition is happy to make their life miserable. So other than PT, where they have a good professional edge, the Coalition are a bunch of vaginas.

    I think I’ll vote independent, Greens 2, ALP 3 etc

Comments Page 5 of 5
1 4 5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *