Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW

The first major NSW state poll since the start of the campaign finds a strong gain for the Coalition at the expense of the Greens and independents.

The Sydney Morning Herald breaks the New South Wales election campaign poll drought with a result from Resolve Strategic that suggests the momentum of the campaign has been in favour of the Coalition. Whereas the previous poll of February 22 to 26 was unique among the polls at the start of the campaign in crediting Labor with a strong primary vote, this one has them both at 38%, with the Coalition up six and Labor steady. Making way for the improving Coalition are the Greens, down three to 8%, and independents, down five to 8%, with others up one to 8%. UPDATE: Gorks in comments makes a point I should have picked up on: that “Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions”. No two-party preferred is provided, but I would roughly calculate this at a bit over 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Dominic Perrottet also records a solid improvement in his personal ratings, his combined very good and good result up seven from the previous poll to 52%, while his poor plus very poor rating is down eight to 32%. Chris Minns is up three on very good plus good to 46% and down two on poor plus very poor to 26%, with 28% remaining undecided. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier increases from 38-34 to 40-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

238 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW”

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  1. It’s an odd election to call as the swing is definitely on if you believe the polls, big time if you ask some insiders, but it needs to be to pick up the seats and at the moment the polls say Labor to be slightly short.

    However, I say Labor majority of 6 on the basis that a lot of people don’t like minority governments and are hedging their nets. When they see Labor ahead, they’ll vote that way rather than risk the minority. It’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.

  2. I think I’ll wait until I see the final Newspoll before making a guess about who’ll win. Currently leaning to the opinion “it depends on the crossbench” though.

  3. A polling leak from Andrew Clennell on Sky News, and it concerns Matt Kean in the seat of Hornsby. According to Clennell, Kean’s primary vote has slumped by 16 points, from 53% at the 2019 election down to 37% this time, not that Labor is benefitting, all of Kean’s lost vote has gone to One Nation and the Liberal Democrats.
    So Hornsby weirdly enough might be one to watch on Saturday night!

  4. LeftieBrawler – I live in the beautiful electorate of Vaucluse.

    Only rich environmentalists allowed here my friend.

  5. Evan @ #154 Tuesday, March 21st, 2023 – 5:05 pm

    A polling leak from Andrew Clennell on Sky News, and it concerns Matt Kean in the seat of Hornsby. According to Clennell, Kean’s primary vote has slumped by 16 points, from 53% at the 2019 election down to 37% this time, not that Labor is benefitting, all of Kean’s lost vote has gone to One Nation and the Liberal Democrats.
    So Hornsby weirdly enough might be one to watch on Saturday night!

    Might make it easier for him to go federal. 😀

  6. I predict the Nationals will win back Murray and perhaps Barwon. I reckon Donato will hold Orange. I am also hoping that there is a swing to left parties in Sydney to give Greenwich a scare not support a Liberal government.

  7. For Matt Kean to go federal, either Paul Fletcher or Julian Lesser would have to willingly give up their lower house seats, can’t see that happening anytime soon.

    The Andrew Clennell thing on Sky News today smells like an internal Liberal Party hit job on Kean from the right of the state Liberal party.

  8. Hornsby should still be a cake walk even at 37% primary.

    What might wrinkle things is if there’s a significant exhaustion from those One Nation/Lib Dem voters.

    There’s also 4.5% of the vote from Mick Gallagher, a former councillor and perennially candidate who seems to have died or at least retired from stumping up for every election now to go around, and 5% from the defunct Keep Sydney Open and Bernadi’s Conservatives to spread around.

    It’s not out of the realm of possibility with 7000 votes exhausting from 50k primary at the last election. Greens + Labor got 31% Primary but Labor only added an additional 2% in the 2PP. So most of the non-major party voters either let their vote exhaust or preference the Liberals anyway.

    I think Labor + Greens would need to get up to 40% or more of the primary to have a chance and that isn’t likely to happen.

    Doesn’t help that the ballot paper is 1 Lib Dem, 2 One Nation with Labor in 8.

    Maybe Labor will get lucky and half of this 37% Liberal vote will split because they vote 1 Lib Dem only, leaving a Primary vote of 20% Labor, 19% Lib Dem, 18% Liberal, 13% Green, all of the Lib Dem & Lib votes exhaust immediately and the ALP rides to victory over the Greens on a 2PP that only includes 40% of the voters.

  9. Sportsbet odds today – improvement for Labor in the seats of Ryde, Parramatta, Heathcote, Monaro(Steve Whan has come in from 5.50 to 3.50 in the last few days) and yes C@t, Terrigal.

  10. Bob: Totally unlikely that Labor wins Hornsby, ain’t gonna happen. I’m in the neighbouring seat of Wahroonga and the Labor candidate here was selected only 2 weeks ago, 18 year old uni student, in other words zero resources being put into an area where Labor never does well, and that’s the same for Hornsby too I imagine.
    I would guess the concerted campaign against Kean being led by 2GB and the Daily Telegraph is working, albeit those disaffected Liberal voters(who think Kean is really a Labor stooge) only have one place to go, One Nation. It would become interesting if they exhausted their preferences and they didn’t naturally flow back to the Liberals.

  11. Yeah, I’d be really surprised if those Hornsby numbers happened on Saturday night. Its not even as if the Lib Dem or ON is a notable local candidate.

    Also begs the question as to who on earth is doing a seat poll of Hornsby.


  12. Newcastle Moderatesays:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 9:00 am
    Menindee is on the Darling, in the far west of NSW, in the electorate of Barwon. If betting markets are to be believed, it will be comfortably retained by a right-wing independent, formerly a SFF member. The decline of the mines and population of Broken Hill means Labor is no longer competitive in this seat.

    NM
    NSW Labor may not be competitive in Barwon area.
    But that happened under LNP watch.
    Labor can highlight the latest environmental destruction under LNP watch.
    This affects all NSW People. Less fish in river and less fish to eat. This affects LNP voters more than Labor voters.


  13. S. Simpsonsays:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 3:21 pm
    I hate to post this but hear me out. The eastern part of Holsworthy is a rather conservative Anglo dominated area that is part of the Sutherland Shire. Will the Libs running a candidate from the Liverpool area with middle eastern heritage suppress their vote?

    No. They are solid Lib voters..


  14. S. Simpsonsays:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 5:30 pm
    I predict the Nationals will win back Murray and perhaps Barwon. I reckon Donato will hold Orange. I am also hoping that there is a swing to left parties in Sydney to give Greenwich a scare not support a Liberal government.

    How can Nats win Barwon after Menindee disaster? Are National voters so MAGA type?

  15. Aqualung says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 2:13 pm
    Speed limit increased to 90. A 2 minute saving in each direction. Ok I’m voting for Dom!

    Seriously, that has got to be up there as one of the lamest election promises ever.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I don’t know about the ‘lamest’ election promise but the biggest vote buying exercise failure in history was when the QLD LNP Leader of the Opposition Deb Frecklington, in a desperate panic two weeks out from the state election in October 2020, promised a $300 rebate on every car registered in QLD if they were elected.
    When the media found out that QLDs richest person and one of Australia’s richest men, Clive Palmer, who owned 9 cars in his name would collect $2,700 but those who could not afford a car received f**k all, it soon hit the fan.

    However, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (PAP) had already won in the eyes of the voting public because she had kept QLDs safe with her border closures even though she was under tremendous pressure from arseholes Morrison and Berejiklian to open them up to COVID overrun states.
    Also the derogatory remarks made by Deb Frecklington accusing PAP of having an easy life because she did not have to look after any children unlike Frecklinmgton who had 3 children.
    (PAP is unable to have children)
    Frecklington also accused PAP of wearing designer clothing whereas she had to wear jeans while working on her family farm.
    PAP went on to win that election with an increased majority.
    Now that was an election night to remember.
    Another one is coming up this Saturday.


  16. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 7:07 pm
    Moderate @ #171 Tuesday, March 21st, 2023 – 7:04 pm

    No outside left it’s Minns’s bus that’s done. What a fabulous campaign metaphor.

    At least he was trying to do the right thing. Matt Kean is just the friendly face the fossil fuel troglodytes in the Liberal Party hide behind.

    Menindee dead fish is the environmental disaster of historic proportions under LNP watch. Nationals neglect and their refusal to deal with Climate change is resulting disasters like this.

  17. Sure c@tmomma – that’s why the world wildlife federation characterised them as the 1 govt in an Australia for renewables. But what would they know in comparison to an obviously non partisan luminary like you!!

  18. I feel like the Sydney Morning Herald is ramping up the anti Labor messaging this arvo. The Essential Poll showing that 58% view pokies reform as not a first order issue must have really got to them.

  19. I suspect the NSW voters don’t give a rat’s arse about Minns dud electric bus.

    What they do care about is the Liberals never ending stuffing up of roads, rail, buses and ferries.

    Transportation in Sydney is worse than it has ever been.

  20. Liberals being Liberals…

    New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has condemned the behaviour of a Liberal Party volunteer, who was sent home from a polling booth after making a racist remark to an Indigenous firefighter.

    On Saturday, Liberal volunteers for Camden MP Peter Sidgreaves and Wollondilly MP Nathanial Smith were handing out campaign material at a pre-polling booth on Oxley Street, Camden.

    Several professional firefighters were also present, campaigning about under-resourcing.

    An Indigenous firefighter — who has asked not to be named — said he was confronted by an older volunteer from the Liberal party who argued firefighters were paid too much.

    Later in the day, the firefighter said the volunteer repeatedly used racist slurs against him.

    “I told him many others would not be happy with him using that word and that he should stop because someone couldn’t be as patient as I am being,” the firefighter said.

    “I was quite stern at this point as this was the third remark he had made in the matter of minutes.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-21/dominic-perrottet-condemns-volunteer-sent-home-for-racist-remark/102124684

  21. Scott says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 6:03 pm
    Has Lars Von Trier made a clear prediction oneway or the other yet ?
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Not that I’ve noticed and I’ve been scouring all posts.

  22. BTSays says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 6:21 pm
    98.6 Belated thanks. I might offer something between now and 6pm AEDT Saturday.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I would get it in sooner than later because as Melbourne Mammoth warns in his last post:-
    ‘It will all be a moot point when Xi nuclear-bombs Sydney Harbour’. (If its before Saturday night)

  23. Moderate says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 7:04 pm
    No outside left it’s Minns’s bus that’s done. What a fabulous campaign metaphor.

    Minns’ electric campaign bus did break down. Perrottet claimed “It’s no surprise to me that Labor’s bus has broken down just like their budget broke down yesterday”.

    Using Perrottet’s logic, the overhead wires that fell on a train at Oatley on 10/3, trapping passengers inside for two hours and resulting in network chaos, is a powerful symbol of the utter disaster that is the current government.

    Bus breakdown story is at https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/forgot-to-charge-it-last-night-nsw-labors-electricpowered-bus-breaks-down-after-running-out-of-power-on-campaign-trail/news-story/5b72f1f9058863356b6c7faeee9ed54a

  24. Ven Says :-
    Menindee dead fish is the environmental disaster of historic proportions under LNP watch. Nationals neglect and their refusal to deal with Climate change is resulting disasters like this.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Right on Ven !
    If I was Minns I would be down there with a camera crew pointing the finger of blame at not just the Nationals but Perrottet as well .
    Its happened on their watch and not for the first time.
    Must be worth thousands of votes towards Labor.

  25. So who is dropping the dirt on Dom tonight? And why are SkyFoxNews running with it?

    Premier Dominic Perrottet has denied he called Health Minister Brad Hazzard in order to receive a faster ambulance response for his sick wife.

    Mr Perrottet was grilled on Sky News over a call he made to Mr Hazzard and Ambulance Commissioner Dr Dominic Morgan which resulted in an ambulance being sent to his house.

    Mr Perrottet said he wasn’t looking for special treatment and doesn’t know if the commissioner personally ordered an ambulance for his wife in order to avoid prolonged wait times.

    “My wife was sick at the time and was paralysed in bed and I actually spoke to Brad Hazzard in relation to that matter and an ambulance was organised in the ordinary course,” Mr Perrottet said.

    The premier said he was on his way back from an event at the time when he made the call to Mr Hazzard.

    “I spoke to Brad to get his advice in relation to the situation. Brad was actually randomly enough with the head of ambulance at that time,” he said.

    Asked why he would call the health minister for advice about his sick wife instead of a doctor, Mr Perrottet replied he is “very close” with Mr Hazzard.

    “I often speak to Brad on a whole range of issues relating to matters such as that,” he said.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8130458/perrottet-denies-special-ambulance-call-for-wife/?cs=9676

  26. The Nationals don’t exactly have a lot of votes to lose in Menindee itself – if I recall correctly they got the grand total of seven votes (out of a few hundred) there last time.

  27. Asked why he would call the health minister for advice about his sick wife instead of a doctor, Mr Perrottet replied he is “very close” with Mr Hazzard.

    ….. And lawyers know more about health issues than doctors don’t they?

  28. I imagine most One Nation and LDP voters would simply let their votes exhaust in Hornsby. Not enough to close the gap between Liberal’s lead over Labor.

    Although with only a 6 point gap between Labor and One Nation, there’s a small chance that One Nation could come second. But again, if Labor comes third, then most of their votes would likely exhaust rather than go to One Nation.

    Speaking of ON, I notice that Mark Latham is very active on Sky News lately, appearing almost daily. I don’t know how that will affect things in NSW, but their numbers may be something to keep an eye on this Saturday. Especially since the ratbag right seems to be spitting more venom at the Liberals because of Matt Kean than they are at Labor.

  29. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 7:46 pm
    98.6 Lars is a team of people, so you would need to get several tips from Lars…
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Are you insinuating that Lars is a secret ‘team of people’, similar to Morrison’s ‘team of five secret ministries’ ?

  30. i think perottit is finished now its a bad look the premier calling the health minister to semingly arange special treatement i suspect the links are coming from the Alex hawke faction they are very anngry with perottit over his brothers actions over hills shier and the hils shier matter was first anowsed by Hawkes key nswstate faction chief Ray williams think the leaks are coming from the sentre right who hate kean more then the hard right

  31. 98.6

    The Morrison secret ministries and Lars are fellow travellers – although both could have borderline personality disorder.

    The Lars von Trier personas include:

    – Labor insider, Sussex St
    – Labor failed preselection candidate
    – Menzies House cipher
    – Young Liberal
    – Northern Ireland politics savant
    – Annoying troll
    – and yes, Danish film director aficionado

    Could be one person, but would seem unlikely

  32. desbite smith in herald that perottit is some great guy he seems to mishandle evry criciss when out going upper house mp and kean friend peter poulos scandle broke about the photows to damage fellow mp peter preston kean and perottit initially backed poulos remaining on the ticket saying evry body makes mistakes then when female members hada a back lash perottit deflected to the state egzwecutive who eventualy cicked him off the ticket then the hawke faction tried to save elliott and kean struggled to get his replacement up

  33. plus the on going troubles with Camden mp peter sidroaves and hills shier and now the ambulents ishue this seems like a terible campaign from the liberals

  34. whiy wouldthe premier call the health minister if he did not want special treatement after all hazard is not a doctor he is a former lawer

  35. @Sprocket

    That may be true, but it has to be said that the Coalition are far more reliant on their support from the media than Labor are, as proven in the Victorian election.

    Murdoch’s rags showered Dan Andrews with venom in the leadup to that, and it amounted to nearly bugger-all. In NSW, it may mean that a significant amount of voters who would normally vote ‘1’ Liberal will just go “Nah, stuff ’em both.” and vote for One Nation or another far-right party instead and let their votes exhaust.

    That might not be enough for a seat like Hornsby, but it may make less safe seats down the pendulum a bit more vulnerable.

  36. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 8:41 pm
    98.6

    The Morrison secret ministries and Lars are fellow travellers – although both could have borderline personality disorder.

    The Lars von Trier personas include:

    – Labor insider, Sussex St
    – Labor failed preselection candidate
    – Menzies House cipher
    – Young Liberal
    – Northern Ireland politics savant
    – Annoying troll
    – and yes, Danish film director aficionado

    Could be one person, but would seem unlikely
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    I haven’t stopped laughing for minutes.
    (But I have had a couple of scotch whiskeys tonight.)
    I was going to refer to that movie called ‘SYBIL’ from 1976 about a woman with 16 personalities but that would not be fair to Lars 1 or Lars 2 or 3 etc.
    We are joking, aren’t we?

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