New South Wales election minus three days

A summary of recent horse race commentary, plus some minor opinion poll findings.

UPDATE: The Financial Review today brings a Freshwater Strategy poll showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the start of the campaign, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and independents 16% (up two) – I assume all respondents were given the independents option, as distinct from the ballot paper-based approach of Resolve Strategic. Dominic Perrottet’s lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier 45-40, in from 46-34 last time. The poll was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1100.

Some notable observations from news coverage over the past few days:

Troy Bramston of The Australian reports there is “deep fear within (Labor) party ranks that the contest is perilously close, and many expect only the narrowest of wins or a minority Chris Minns-led government when it should be a landslide”. While Chris Minns is rated highly, the article lays out a list of perceived organisational deficiencies at the heart of a low-impact Labor campaign. Several teal independents are rated a show, but the Nationals “could regain Barwon or Murray” from ex-Shooters independents, though seemingly not Orange.

Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Monday that the Liberals were “increasingly confident that they will be able to stave off a teal wave, however Lane Cove, held by the Planning Minister Anthony Roberts, is seen as the most at-risk”. Labor is said to be at least hopeful of recovering Balmain from the Greens.

• The Daily Telegraph has an instructive heat map illustrating which electorates have been most visited by the leaders during the campaign. Parramatta, Riverstone and Penrith have seen the most action; the Liberals have put more effort into East Hills, and Labor more into neighbouring Oatley; the Liberals would seem to be concerned about Drummoyne; and neither side is taking Leppington for granted.

Further opinion poll findings:

• The latest Essential Research poll posed questions relating to state politics to its cohort of 708 New South Wales respondents, finding Dominic Perrottet with a 36-33 lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier. Forty-one per cent expected Labor to win, against 35% for the Coalition. Thirty-six per cent said Labor’s promise of no future privatisations made them more likely to vote for them, against 10% for more likely to vote Coalition; 31% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to its promise to scrap the public sector wages cap, against 13% for the Coalition; 16% said they were more likely to vote Coalition due to their promised savings fund for children, against 26% for Labor; and 16% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to the Coalition’s commitment to a cashless gambling card, against 31% for Labor (findings I find highly unintuitive in the latter two cases).

• The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday had further results from its Resolve Strategic poll found 43% in favour of the proposed children’s future fund and 30% opposed, while 50% backed Labor’s promised Energy Security Corporation with 14% opposed. Labor led 35% to 29% as best party to handle cost of living, while the Coalition led 38% to 33% on the economy and 36% to 32% on infrastructure. Labor as usual had strong leads on health (39% to 29%), education (40% to 31%) and climate change (30% to 18%).

• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 844 respondents credited Labor with a 53.5-46.5 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 34% and Greens 13%, with Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 52-48 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted over a week ago, from March 10 to 14.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

226 comments on “New South Wales election minus three days”

  1. “Probably not the environment then in which to post about Armenians in Willoughby”

    There are ways one can write about the voting habits of different cultural groups without being offensive. Usually by treating them as people and not as some monocultural demographic.

  2. Free money who called them ‘disgusting’?. Not me.

    I was just referring to the general area and demographics where I could see a labor loss.

    After the the problems with KK generally and the big anti pokie push in those areas I feel an ind could get up.

    People make demographic generalisations about electorates all the time. Wake up to your pathetic self and the trying to put words in my mouth. What a disgrace you are.

    The south west pokie belt has been problematic for Labor for the past 2 years. That’s the start and the conclusion of my references to the area.

  3. S. Simpson says:
    Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 10:03 am
    Liberal polling must be pretty bad when Perrottet’s silly mind games about winning the seat of Kogarah make the Daily Telegraph.

    Also when the DT today claims Albo is snubbing Minns: “Minns brushes off Albo snub as crunch time nears
    Anthony Albanese has skipped an appearance with Chris Minns 48 hours before the state election, despite being in the same town* as the hopeful premier.” While Albo and Minns have clearly appeared together already, the DT has been silent on the the failure of Perrott and Dutton to appear together at any time.

    * Presumably Minns visiting Queanbeyan and Albo working at Parliament House.

  4. “small government, lower taxes, personal responsibility and economic strength”

    But who across society are the beneficiaries of such ideology?

    Who benefits from austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down?

    Who benefits from the most effective form of regulation being self regulation?

    Who benefits from the “economic strength” this ideology delivers?

    And who are the major beneficiaries from taking personal responsibility?

    As Robodebt instructs, there are PEOPLE across society in need of assistance to achieve a level of income, a level of income to put a roof over their heads, to put food on the table and to access basic services

    Yes, there are those surviving very comfortably, if not very well

    But, equally there are those who are not

    Robodebt showed those small government, lower taxes, personal responsibility and economic strength leave behind

    And what happens to them

    Robodebt is ideology

    Ideology of a small minded government governing for a constituency not a society

    And they wonder why they have a problem, hopefully days off holding government in no mainland Australian jurisdiction

    And then reduced to just over 50 Seats in the Lower House of the Australian Parliament, a House of 151 Seats

    And over 20 of those in Rural and Regional Australia thru Queensland

    And if you want to be absolutely caustic, in terms of personal responsibility, what about those choosing to enter same sex relationships and considering abortion

    Referencing Deeming as but the latest to cause chaos within the “Liberal” Party dictated to by its Bible Group

    These types are pre-selected for a reason, by Members of the “Liberal” Party (noting branch stacking)

    In actual fact they are elitist, racist and sexist – and from a past age

  5. Where the leaders are today – Perrottett is in Drummoyne, Minns is in Monaro and Goulburn so far today.
    Always watch the travel movements of the major party leaders in the last week of an election campaign – it might indicate the true state of their internal polling.

  6. I lived in Monaro (Queanbeyan) many years ago. It was struggle town then but I liked it as soon as I went out and saw a a T-shirt from behind with the words ‘We don’t call the Police’. Found it curious then the fellow turned around and the front said ‘National Hotel’.

    That digression aside, Steve Whan is an affable guy and could get a big swing in Monaro but probably not enough unless the new member is a dud. Goulburn must be line-ball.

  7. purely subjective and i am in a safe ALP seat but at pre-poll have had significantly more people coming up to me seeking HTVs. The other thing is that there is no Lib booth workers. ALP only ones handing out HTVs. if this is repeated across say 15 safe Labor seats that will have a significant impact upon Leg C results.
    as i said not scientific and safe seat but as Leftiebrawler has said: from my observation the swing is on

  8. The outcome I want is Labor to win or to fall short of majority by less than the Greens seat count.

    But I’m getting SA 2014 vibes more than anything else this election. Perrottet does not seem down and out and Minns doesn’t seem any more credible than Foley and Daley were as a premier (compared to e.g. Malinaskuas who was also an unknown at his first election).

    Can’t see where the LNP gains from ALP are (definitely not Kogarah and Londonderry) but I think the LNP have a path to victory through winning back some of the shooter seats and sandbagging the suburban Sydney marginals particularly where they have incumbents.

    I hope I’m wrong.

  9. The media is running a narrative of same same and its all boring in the hope that people just go whats the point of change. It might work.

  10. Campaigning hard with a wombat in Goulburn…

    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.119%2C$multiply_2.709%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_21/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/bd871c5e8738bce7dded1e92605cd5bb29006741#image.jpg

    At one of his last stops on the campaign trail on Thursday, Chris Minns will be hoping he found a lucky charm.

    Stopping in at Wombat Care sanctuary in Bundanoon in the electorate of Goulburn, Minns came upon Winnie the wombat.

    Labor Leader Chris Minns, right, at Wombat Care in Bundanoon.
    Labor Leader Chris Minns, right, at Wombat Care in Bundanoon.CREDIT:JANIE BARRETT
    “With a name like that, let’s hope she’s a good omen for Saturday,” the Labor leader said.

    The premier hopeful took five for a cuddle with the young orphaned wombat, which is being cared for by the sanctuary that was recently inundated by flooding.

    Labor hasn’t won the seat of Goulburn for more than 50 years, but still maintains the marginal seat is within reach. The party believes local small business owner candidate Michael Pilbrow gives them a shot in the regional electorate, where Liberal MP Wendy Tuckerman holds the seat on a margin of 3.1 per cent.

    Minns and Pilbrow visited the wombat sanctuary on Thursday after Labor already committed $60,000 in funding for the sanctuary to invest in wombat shelters and care. But let’s be honest, it was a convenient chance to get some eleventh-hour pics with a cuddly animal before polling day.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-election-2023-live-updates-fallout-from-mark-latham-s-belfield-event-continues-perrottet-minns-in-final-days-of-campaign-20230322-p5cues.html?post=p54osi#p54osi

  11. Meanwhile Dom has crocodiles biting his ankles in the DT..

    ‘Haven’t said that’: Perrottet’s big backflip on Eraring power station
    Dominic Perrottet has done a 180 on his approach to coal just two days out from the tightly contested state election.

    Dom lashes out over leaked ambulance call
    Dom Perrottet has fired up at the leaking of his family’s medical records, after it was revealed he called the Health Minister while his wife was having a medical episode.

  12. We know that the average punter not interested in politics starts paying attention in the last week before election day. If polling is correct and where the leaders are campaigning reflects where they think they’re at, then it is clear that voters are warming to Chris Minns. The more the undecided and uninterested voters see and hear of Chris Minns the more they warm to him.

  13. “Mate, I live in Leppington and your post is quite offensive. Have you even been to the area, or you just like to generalise?”

    I live in the areas that were being discussed and have done so for 40 years. I know the exact type of people that section of the post was describing because they’re all over the place and I deal with them in my work in the construction industry.

    “Additionally, Yugoslavia stopped existing over 30 years ago. They are not a uniform voting block in terms of politics.”

    No-one said they were ‘Yugoslavian’. All that was said was that there is a collection of immigrants from the former Yugoslavia, a short-hand description for those countries.

    Every group being discussed is a generalisation. Not everyone in Point Piper will vote for the LNP, but the area can still be easily generalised as a pro-LNP area.

  14. Small Government sounds great until the Small Government deregulates cargo trains and one derails while carrying toxic chemicals, destroying your town.

    And because of Personal Responsibility it’s your own fault you live in a city ruined by a toxic waste dump that gives you cancer.

    Then because of the Lower Taxes (that are only lower for billionaires), there’s no health service you can afford.

    And you die.

    Chris Kenny won’t be happy until Australia looks like Mississippi.

  15. Potetic justice for Dom who claimed Labor’s broken down bus was a metaphor for their broken down policies. Not paywalled.

    State election 2023: Flat battery brings Liberal party’s campaign bus to a halt
    While Labor’s western Sydney-built, electricity powered bus came to a halt earlier this week after an issue with its charger, the Liberal’s diesel-powered vessel broke down on Thursday.
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/dominic-perrottet-denies-his-wife-received-special-treatment-after-calling-health-minister-brad-hazzard/news-story/503129cf5ea571e04d632bc312986efd

  16. Evan @ #141 Thursday, March 23rd, 2023 – 8:57 am

    Alexandra Smith in today’s SMH echoing Troy Bramston earlier in the week – Labor’s campaign at an organisational level apparently terrible, they preselected candidates in winnable seats far too late, it got to the stage that Minns himself personally picked candidates instead of head office(who were hopelessly indecisive), Perrottett has run a good campaign(well, according to his main cheerleader Alexandra Smith) etc.
    Conclusion: nobody in the media wants Perrottett to lose. We knew that, all those sectional interests who run media companies, who always opt for the Liberal side. Who owns Nine newspapers? Peter Costello, join the dots on that one.
    And Minns in Monaro today, he wouldn’t be spending the day down there if Labor didn’t think they had a chance in that seat. Let’s see if Minns then goes to South Coast, Kiama, Heathcote?

    Kiama and Heathcote a chance, South Coast, not so much, I reckon.

  17. PBs, tell us who you know will win the NSW election this Saturday.
    No ifs, buts, maybes, provisos, depends on, etc etc.
    Time is running out to have your ‘VOICE’ heard.
    Labor will win OR Coalition will win.

    Results for Labor will win, so far:
    98.6
    Mick Quinlivan
    MABWM
    Desie (Minority)
    Malcolm
    Scott (Majority)
    Newcastle Moderate (Minority)
    Ven (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour (Thin Majority)
    Melbourne Mammoth (Minority)
    Evan (Minority)
    Outside Left (Majority)
    Pol Night (Minority)
    Leftie Brawler (Majority 1-4 seats)
    citizen (Minority)
    Historyintime (Minority)
    ChrisfromEdgecliff (Majority)
    Mr Mysterious (Majority)
    Griff (Majority)
    Granny Annie (Majority)
    Terminator (Minority hoping for Majority)
    Quasor
    Kelta (Majority by 3 seats)
    Socrates (Majority)
    Freemoney (Minority)
    Nathana (Majority of 6)
    PuffyTMD
    jt1983 (Minority or Majority)

    Results for Coalition will win, so far:
    sprocket (Minority)
    Poliphili (Minority)
    Hugoaugogo ( Hoping to be proven wrong)

    Sitting on the fence:
    Aqualung (To mull it over)
    Lars Von Trier (Minns to lose) (Waiting on Newspoll)
    Kirsdarke (Waiting on Newspoll)

    Intruders:
    Joe Hilderbrand (Labor)

    Apologies if I’ve missed someone or put someone in the wrong column.
    But you can add your name to the lists or change your opinion, up to 6 PM AEDT on Saturday 25th March when our polling booth will close.
    After this time, no posts (postals) will be accepted or added to the lists.

  18. A couple more Sky News leaked polls(how legitimate these polls are, who knows? Matt Kean claims the leak against him 2 days ago for his electorate of Hornsby was a fake poll commissioned by the NSW Minerals Council).
    Anyway, today’s Sky News Polling:
    Penrith – 2 point lead to the Liberals
    Winston Hills – 18 point lead to the Liberals
    The Penrith one I can believe, the Winston Hills one however looks way out.

  19. C@tsmomma:
    My guess is Labor wins Heathcote(which is notionally their seat thanks to the redistribution). Goulburn is a possibility, because the Liberal margin on the pendulum isn’t that huge(3% or something like that).
    Kiama? Anyone’s guess, depends if Melanie Gibbons directs her preferences to Gareth Ward. If she doesn’t, the Labor candidate might snag that one. But as Minns hasn’t been there or to South Coast lately, makes me think neither seat is on Labor’s radar.

  20. I don’t post often enough to be a PBer LOL, but put me down for a minority Labor govt come next week 🙂

    (though hoping for a majority ofc)

  21. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 4:48 pm
    George Simon. Likely next NSW State Labor Secretary.

    —-

    You are truly clueless. Or, and I am being generous, you are some heavily influential powerbroker because for George Simon to be elected the next NSW Labor Secretary the Left would have to have the numbers something that it does not have and has never had. But maybe you really can swing it and prove your power but I think the better view is that you have no real idea.

  22. If you look at a map of the electorate and take into account the demographics it is surprising that Winston Hills is being mentioned at all. This should be Tory heartland.

  23. wranslide,
    Always with a slur to go with your comments directed at me.
    Now, you may not have noticed through the red mist of hatred you constantly manifest but we have a Prime Minister from the Left in NSW. So I wouldn’t completely discount that the party chooses the best person for the job rather than putting in a factional fix.
    Unlike you I don’t think in traditional terms. You should try it sometime. And maybe try cutting back on the abuse. You’ll feel better.

  24. The opinion polls seem to be consistent in giving the ALP as winners.
    The betting agencies are well in favour of the ALP

    Does anyone expect an Opus Dei’s mediated Perrottet’s “miracle”?

  25. ‘George Simon. Likely next NSW State Labor Secretary’

    If he’s seen as competent, why not? The NSW Right is a shadow of its former self and has been doing deals the Left for the last 20 years. If Anthony Albanese said he wants George Simon he would prevail.

  26. “ So I wouldn’t completely discount that the party chooses the best person for the job rather than putting in a factional fix.”

    Bonkers.

    A bunch of centre unity union secretaries – all whom either want to be an MLC or senator, or anoint someone – are going to gift control of the party to the left … because some notion of meritocracy?

    That’s even more bonkers than Albo and Marles delivering ScoMo a ‘legacy’ via the AUKUS clustercuss.

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