UPDATE: The Financial Review today brings a Freshwater Strategy poll showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the start of the campaign, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and independents 16% (up two) – I assume all respondents were given the independents option, as distinct from the ballot paper-based approach of Resolve Strategic. Dominic Perrottet’s lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier 45-40, in from 46-34 last time. The poll was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1100.
Some notable observations from news coverage over the past few days:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports there is “deep fear within (Labor) party ranks that the contest is perilously close, and many expect only the narrowest of wins or a minority Chris Minns-led government when it should be a landslide”. While Chris Minns is rated highly, the article lays out a list of perceived organisational deficiencies at the heart of a low-impact Labor campaign. Several teal independents are rated a show, but the Nationals “could regain Barwon or Murray” from ex-Shooters independents, though seemingly not Orange.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Monday that the Liberals were “increasingly confident that they will be able to stave off a teal wave, however Lane Cove, held by the Planning Minister Anthony Roberts, is seen as the most at-risk”. Labor is said to be at least hopeful of recovering Balmain from the Greens.
• The Daily Telegraph has an instructive heat map illustrating which electorates have been most visited by the leaders during the campaign. Parramatta, Riverstone and Penrith have seen the most action; the Liberals have put more effort into East Hills, and Labor more into neighbouring Oatley; the Liberals would seem to be concerned about Drummoyne; and neither side is taking Leppington for granted.
Further opinion poll findings:
• The latest Essential Research poll posed questions relating to state politics to its cohort of 708 New South Wales respondents, finding Dominic Perrottet with a 36-33 lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier. Forty-one per cent expected Labor to win, against 35% for the Coalition. Thirty-six per cent said Labor’s promise of no future privatisations made them more likely to vote for them, against 10% for more likely to vote Coalition; 31% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to its promise to scrap the public sector wages cap, against 13% for the Coalition; 16% said they were more likely to vote Coalition due to their promised savings fund for children, against 26% for Labor; and 16% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to the Coalition’s commitment to a cashless gambling card, against 31% for Labor (findings I find highly unintuitive in the latter two cases).
• The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday had further results from its Resolve Strategic poll found 43% in favour of the proposed children’s future fund and 30% opposed, while 50% backed Labor’s promised Energy Security Corporation with 14% opposed. Labor led 35% to 29% as best party to handle cost of living, while the Coalition led 38% to 33% on the economy and 36% to 32% on infrastructure. Labor as usual had strong leads on health (39% to 29%), education (40% to 31%) and climate change (30% to 18%).
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 844 respondents credited Labor with a 53.5-46.5 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 34% and Greens 13%, with Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 52-48 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted over a week ago, from March 10 to 14.
After Leroy posted the results I couldn’t help take a peek-
Despite seeming to be about to lose his voice Minns really came out swinging and very competent.
He has really surprised and impressed the way he has grown into the role.
The premier looked flat and cooked. Minns fires up articulately with his anti-privitisation message.
5-6+ ALP majority could be starting to simmer now
Can I predict an upset in Terrigal? 😀
I was told tonight that the Local Liberal Member has been pork barrelling the seat like it’s going out of fashion, handing out cheques left, right and centre. The Liberals must be worried. 😉
LeftieBrawler seems to have his ear to the ground. What is Sussex Street saying about the Bramston article the other day with his allegation that the campaign infrastructure has been terrible but it has all be papered over by the strong performance of Minns.
Oh, I came to this thread for some refuge. Now I see the heart and soul has come in.
And she has had an explosive run today wranslide
wranslide, It was always constructed as a small target, austere Labor campaign.
after 2011 a 4 term rebuild had been unofficially locked in almost straight after the night itsself.
With the Daly and Foley dramas and then finally the unsuccessful McKay era this had been reinforced.
Minns has really been able to cultivate and foster a likable standing with Mr and Mrs swinging reasonable, hence the opening up of the inner-suburban pre 2011 seats and others regionally like SC, Kiama, Goulburn, Tweed etc.
In terms of personal standings Minns has suddenly become everything the NSW libs wanted from the Premier after Gladys departed.
Minns has done a Dom better than Dom could do himself.
Its all over bar the shouting. Libs are forcing unwilling front bench coalition members to enter into furniture saving mode as we speak.
It must really drain the heart and soul to be having the runs so often. What would that do to your forehead? I can only imagine.
C@tmomma: Your candidate in Terrigal is a rather impressive young bloke by all reports.
Sky Debate: Minns judged the winner – Paul Murray would have had a tantrum on air about that, like he did last year when Albo won a similar debate.
LeftieBrawler: I’m sticking to my Labor minority Government prediction, but your feedback from Labor HQ is rather interesting too.
Watch where Minns and Perrottett go over the next 2 days on the campaign trail will be a guide to how both sides are really travelling.
Interesting stories LeftieBrawler. Certainly they offer an old Labor supporter such as myself great hope. Thank you for sharing your informed insight. What say you about the seat of Kogarah? Also, what about that south west belt that has been nasty for Labor for a good period of time now. Is it all coming back in Celine Dion tones?
And no Michael Daley like 2019 stuffups for Minns in the debate this time.
Evan @ Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 10:09 pm
It was minority Labor. May still be. But the swing is definitely on. It is just a matter of how far it will go. I am going for majority Labor myself.
Interesting there is mention of Terrigal being in play.. I would have assumed it was a liberal hold…. also Riverstone is a good Labor chance
wranslide I think those Viet-yugoslav Pokie belt seats will provide some volatile sub plots on the night. I’ve heard maybe one will go to an indie from one of these communities on the night. This would be better longterm for a Labor gov anyway and shut down the Clubs NSW crusade.
I think the party hasn’t been bothered with Kog for several weeks now- The sudden arrival of the Minns train statewide will also generally mirror his seat experiences. Yes a former Liberal party hack and clubs NSW auditor is running against him- apart from a small protest vote to this candidate I can’t see any real threat to his electorate.
Mick. Terrigal? Please. Where did you get that from?
Does the advertising blackout kick in tonight or did we stupidly get rid of that along with compulsory preferences.
It kicks in tonight Aqualung. But I do not believe it applies to the internet/socials.
News Corp/Nine no doubt screaming about unfair playing field.
Thanks wranslide. Yay!
Evan at 4.55 pm re Sky News
“In Goulburn, a seat held by minister Wendy Tuckerman, the Liberal party is polling 35 per cent (down four from the 2019 result), the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party is at 13 (up four), One Nation, who are not even running for the seat, are at five per cent.
Labor is at 33 per cent (up three) and the Greens at nine per cent.”
Those figures would get Labor close in Goulburn, but what idiot has the Hanson/Latham franchise on the list when they are not even standing?
I saw a Labor voter at the Coles checkout in Goulburn today; he is hopeful. He was also one of the few customers still wearing a mask, like me.
There were crude Shooters ads on the local radio. In 2019 64% of Shooters voters did not preference, compared to 40% of Greens voters. That could be a key difference, but one hopes most ‘One Nation’ voters really vote Labor.
“Those figures would get Labor close in Goulburn, but what idiot has the Hanson/Latham franchise on the list when they are not even standing?”
A not very good poll, I suspect. I am sceptical of all these Sky News polls – their source and methodology is unclear and numbers they provide look a bit dodgy.
I think the lack of decent polling data in this election is doing funny things to pundit electoral narratives. I am looking forward to Saturday night and seeing some hard data.
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 10:44 pm
Evan at 4.55 pm re Sky News
“In Goulburn, a seat held by minister Wendy Tuckerman, the Liberal party is polling 35 per cent (down four from the 2019 result), the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party is at 13 (up four), One Nation, who are not even running for the seat, are at five per cent.
Labor is at 33 per cent (up three) and the Greens at nine per cent.”
Those figures would get Labor close in Goulburn, but what idiot has the Hanson/Latham franchise on the list when they are not even standing?
I saw a Labor voter at the Coles checkout in Goulburn today; he is hopeful. He was also one of the few customers still wearing a mask, like me.
There were crude Shooters ads on the local radio. In 2019 64% of Shooters voters did not preference, compared to 40% of Greens voters. That could be a key difference, but one hopes most ‘One Nation’ voters really vote Labor.
”
I don’t believe this Goulburn poll. It appears to be plucked out of someone’s backside.
BTW, What are Credlin and Bolt are saying about NSW election?
Terrigal was mentioned by others on this blog
I think some people are getting carried away with their predictions of seat results and in the process it appears that they are making stuff up and giving a lot of material to work with for Lars and Moderate.
IMHO, individual seat polling is really Sus.
My considered view based on monitoring many of them is that public seat polls are of little value. I checked the Goulburn Sportsbet odds and they were $1.65 for the Coalition yesterday and $1.65 right now. Even on the Skynews poll, it’s beyond me how you get Labor winning based on those primaries.
However, and reluctantly, after following Australian elections for 40 years plus, I do think public leaks of internal polling can provide some useful information.
Dr Doolittle says:
I saw a Labor voter at the Coles checkout in Goulburn today; he is hopeful. He was also one of the few customers still wearing a mask, like me.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Looks like that Labor voter at the checkout and you and Ms 98.6 are the few still wearing them masks.
And like him, you, Ms 98.6 and Mr 98.6 are all hopeful.
SP says:
A not very good poll, I suspect. I am sceptical of all these Sky News polls – their source and methodology is unclear and numbers they provide look a bit dodgy.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I’m sceptical about everything on Sky News and only watch it to see them SUFFER.
Vensays:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 12:19 am
I think some people are getting carried away with their predictions of seat results and in the process it appears that they are making stuff up and giving a lot of material to work with for Lars and Moderate.
IMHO, individual seat polling is really Sus.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I totality agree with you Ven and Historyintime.
I see that some PBs predict seat results with regularity but when a swing is on it becomes a moot point.
OK, I agree it keeps Lars and Moderate off the streets at night.
“If Labor has a weakness in terms of seats I would be looking closely at the South west Vietnamese-Yugoslavian (combined balkan slavic communities) pokie belt for an against the grain Labor loss.”
Those areas have been cracked into three different electorates, split between Fairfield, Cabramatta and Liverpool (and parts of the suburbs in and around Liverpool have been split off into Holsworthy).
Liverpool electorate was 55% first primary to ALP.
Cabra was 49% ALP first primary and 62% 2CP vs Dai Le and she’s obviously not there this time.
Fairfield was 57% ALP first preferences.
Prospect was 51% ALP first preferences.
Holsworthy is only held by the Liberals by 3%.
The only seat change in that area is going to be the Liberals losing Holsworthy.
Maybe they take the new Leppington seat off the back of paper millionaire 2gb listening anti-lockdown shonky builder bogans living in their heat-trap hellscapes where you can hear next door taking a dump through your paper fibro walls that jut up against the fenceline but it’s just as likely enough of them vote one-nation 1 only because they hate muslim & african migrants and don’t think the LNP are doing anything about them and let their preferences exhaust.
Dr Kev reads the tea leaves:
‘NSW Lower House 2023: Final Days Rolling Poll Roundup’
‘NSW Aggregate: 53.0 to Labor (-0.4 since start of March)’
‘*Median result if polls accurate is Labor minority government* (approx 44-45 seats)’
‘Labor majority or roughly even seat tally with crossbench determining winner could also occur off current 2PP’
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-lower-house-2023-final-days-rolling.html
SP says:
“I am sceptical of all these Sky News polls – their source and methodology is unclear and numbers they provide look a bit dodgy.”
Very wise, SP:
‘Sky News Australia on Tuesday and Wednesday cited unnamed “industry polling” as pointing to big swings away from the Coalition in three key seats and in Hornsby, a safe seat held by the treasurer, Matt Kean. It did not cite other details such as the polling size or the questions asked.
‘A government source said the NSW Minerals Council had shopped the poll results to several media outlets. Those surveyed were asked questions such as “do you agree that Matt Kean is responsible for pushing up energy prices?”’
One wonders if the survey went on to ask: “do you agree that Matt Kean has stopped beating his wife?”
it seems labor is likely to winn holesworvy it was a good idea picking som body from the shier theere
C@tmomma @ 9.45pm.
C@t you may predict an unexpected ALP result in Terrigal.
However, from my observations, over an hour, at the CWA Hall, Terrigal I don’t think it will occur.
The majority of voters, attending pre-poll, were taking the LNP papers and ignoring the others.
However, I was pleased to observe that a number of voters were only taking ALP or Green HTV papers.
By the way, who the fuck is Australia One. They had corflutes with an evil looking bloke attached to a number of poles?
I presume that they are another fringe group of WRNJs.
This morning. Personally, I haven’t seen the Liberal Party drift to the Left. They currently have the most conservative NSW Premier and the most conservative federal party leader in the history of the party.
Sky News Australia
‘Utter folly’: The Liberal party’s ‘drift to the Left’ is their downfall
If the Coalition government falls in the upcoming NSW state election, “there will not be one” Liberal in state or federal power on mainland Australia, says Sky News host Chris Kenny.
Their political base hasn’t abandoned them,
0
of the Liberals’ endless drift to the left,” Mr Kenny said.
“Driven by their own left faction the so-called moderates and by a naïve desperation to win plaudits from social media and much of the mainstream media, the Liberals have continually learnt the wrong lessons.
‘Utter folly’: The Liberal party’s ‘drift to the Left’ is their downfall
‘Utter folly’: The Liberal party’s ‘drift to the Left’ is their downfall
© Provided by Sky News Australia
“Instead of reasserting their values of small government, low taxes, personal responsibility and economic strength – they’ve chased political fashion, the stuff of the Left.
“So instead of favouring affordable and reliable energy, they’ve destroyed our electricity grid and pretended they’re saving the planet.”
“The Liberals have surrendered their product differentiation – voters have been left to choose between Green Left, Labor Left, Teals Left and Liberal Left.
“Without core values the Liberals are nothing.”
Ven,
No need to make things up for me.
I caveated what I’ve heard with my sussex st sources describing sole of the numbers they are seeing as “too good to be true”.
I personally don’t deviate from a few areas of seats that I know well when offering up any thoughts an analysis.
From everything I’m seeing and hearing the swing is on, and a universal one at that.
At the start of last week the LNP were in offensive campaign mode.
By the end of late night you had a dejected Ayres on Sky news begging disaffected lib voters to atleast put them at 2 on the ballot card.
Doesn’t take a genius to see the situation is deteriorating rapidly for the Premier on all fronts.
Ven,
No need to make things up for me.
I caveated what I’ve heard with my sussex st sources describing sole of the numbers they are seeing as “too good to be true”.
I personally don’t deviate from a few areas of seats that I know well when offering up any thoughts an analysis.
From everything I’m seeing and hearing the swing is on, and a universal one at that.
At the start of last week the LNP were in offensive campaign mode.
By the end of late night you had a dejected Ayres on Sky news begging disaffected lib voters to atleast put them at 2 on the ballot card.
Doesn’t take a genius to see the situation is deteriorating rapidly for the Premier on all fronts.
@The Banana Republic
It’s funny how Labor in Victoria and Queensland are almost the opposite of Labor here on PT.
The problem with voting through one lens is that you get all the other stuff which sometimes matters more than your wishlist or hobbies….
It’s going to be interesting how election night plays out.
Based on polls I think several teal seats will look competitive before prepolls, postals and (insufficient) preferences get them back in the Lib column. This long count will also happen in Kiama (exclusion order mess) and South Coast (Greens instead of Teals) though I don’t think Libs will come out on top there.
If Perrottet wins, he won’t be able to declare on election night.
Minns too will have a hard time getting a majority, and the post count will trend towards Liberals. Maybe Labor are winning every competitive seat easily on the night and credible in some long shot seats (or complete black swans like Nicklin in QLD 2020), leading to Perrottet conceding. But otherwise it will be a lengthy process and I don’t see NSW Liberals rolling over easily.
I don’t think the Sunday morning papers will be able to declare a winner.
Minns is visiting Monaro today (radio news item). I had presumed that the Nats would get back in but it must now be in play. Possible reasons are the return of Steve Whan as Labor candidate, the Barilaro factor and Nicole Overall being the wife of the former Queanbeyan-Palerang mayor. He is being blamed for huge rate increases this year.
The MSM is going on about a swing back to the Liberals they are not going on about a hung parliament.
The hung parliament stuff is for when the polls are 2 to 3% to Labor.
The polls for the Liberals must be bad.
Alexandra Smith in today’s SMH echoing Troy Bramston earlier in the week – Labor’s campaign at an organisational level apparently terrible, they preselected candidates in winnable seats far too late, it got to the stage that Minns himself personally picked candidates instead of head office(who were hopelessly indecisive), Perrottett has run a good campaign(well, according to his main cheerleader Alexandra Smith) etc.
Conclusion: nobody in the media wants Perrottett to lose. We knew that, all those sectional interests who run media companies, who always opt for the Liberal side. Who owns Nine newspapers? Peter Costello, join the dots on that one.
And Minns in Monaro today, he wouldn’t be spending the day down there if Labor didn’t think they had a chance in that seat. Let’s see if Minns then goes to South Coast, Kiama, Heathcote?
It’s odd how political journalists think that readers care about what they think about the alleged quality of political campaigns. It’s just horse race journalism that doesn’t help to inform the readers/voters about actual issues and trends relating to the election. I still don’t think we have a good feel of what’s happening electorally and journalists are writing this rubbish. I suppose it’s easier than doing research or *gasp!* talking to voters.
notice the corrupt media hacks ignoring , the missing 20 candidates which Liberal party had yet to finalise, they were later than Labor
frednk says:
Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 8:50 am
The MSM is going on about a swing back to the Liberals they are not going on about a hung parliament.
The hung parliament stuff is for when the polls are 2 to 3% to Labor.
The polls for the Liberals must be bad.
——————————–
Very similar to the federal election 3 days from voting day , Patricia Karvelas and newsltd hack Sam Maiden were claiming Morrison and Lib/nats made up ground.
On election day during the federal and Victorian elections
media hacks were reporting the Lib/nats internal polling was showing lib/nats combined primary vote was over 40% , wonder if this will be repeated on Saturday
Liberal polling must be pretty bad when Perrottet’s silly mind games about winning the seat of Kogarah make the Daily Telegraph.
Mate, I live in Leppington and your post is quite offensive. Have you even been to the area, or you just like to generalise?
Additionally, Yugoslavia stopped existing over 30 years ago. They are not a uniform voting block in terms of politics.
Just out if interest, do you also refer to central europeans as Austro-Hungarians?
bob @ #129 Thursday, March 23rd, 2023 – 2:05 am
It’s not the comments section of an Australian psephological website without some ridiculous racist generalisations.
‘Maybe they take the new Leppington seat off the back of paper millionaire 2gb listening anti-lockdown shonky builder bogans living in their heat-trap hellscapes where you can hear next door taking a dump through your paper fibro walls that jut up against the fenceline but it’s just as likely enough of them vote one-nation 1 only because they hate muslim & african migrants and don’t think the LNP are doing anything about them and let their preferences exhaust.’
Top quality invective. I have never been to Leppington but now want to go there and spray paint rainbow signs and extinction rebellion slogans on random private facilities.
Yes Leftiebrawler, do tell us more why these disgusting Slavs of low moral calibre and pathetic mental ability won’t vote for you.
Probably not the environment then in which to post about Armenians in Willoughby