UPDATE: The Financial Review today brings a Freshwater Strategy poll showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the start of the campaign, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and independents 16% (up two) – I assume all respondents were given the independents option, as distinct from the ballot paper-based approach of Resolve Strategic. Dominic Perrottet’s lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier 45-40, in from 46-34 last time. The poll was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1100.
Some notable observations from news coverage over the past few days:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports there is “deep fear within (Labor) party ranks that the contest is perilously close, and many expect only the narrowest of wins or a minority Chris Minns-led government when it should be a landslide”. While Chris Minns is rated highly, the article lays out a list of perceived organisational deficiencies at the heart of a low-impact Labor campaign. Several teal independents are rated a show, but the Nationals “could regain Barwon or Murray” from ex-Shooters independents, though seemingly not Orange.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Monday that the Liberals were “increasingly confident that they will be able to stave off a teal wave, however Lane Cove, held by the Planning Minister Anthony Roberts, is seen as the most at-risk”. Labor is said to be at least hopeful of recovering Balmain from the Greens.
• The Daily Telegraph has an instructive heat map illustrating which electorates have been most visited by the leaders during the campaign. Parramatta, Riverstone and Penrith have seen the most action; the Liberals have put more effort into East Hills, and Labor more into neighbouring Oatley; the Liberals would seem to be concerned about Drummoyne; and neither side is taking Leppington for granted.
Further opinion poll findings:
• The latest Essential Research poll posed questions relating to state politics to its cohort of 708 New South Wales respondents, finding Dominic Perrottet with a 36-33 lead over Chris Minns as preferred premier. Forty-one per cent expected Labor to win, against 35% for the Coalition. Thirty-six per cent said Labor’s promise of no future privatisations made them more likely to vote for them, against 10% for more likely to vote Coalition; 31% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to its promise to scrap the public sector wages cap, against 13% for the Coalition; 16% said they were more likely to vote Coalition due to their promised savings fund for children, against 26% for Labor; and 16% said they were more likely to vote Labor due to the Coalition’s commitment to a cashless gambling card, against 31% for Labor (findings I find highly unintuitive in the latter two cases).
• The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday had further results from its Resolve Strategic poll found 43% in favour of the proposed children’s future fund and 30% opposed, while 50% backed Labor’s promised Energy Security Corporation with 14% opposed. Labor led 35% to 29% as best party to handle cost of living, while the Coalition led 38% to 33% on the economy and 36% to 32% on infrastructure. Labor as usual had strong leads on health (39% to 29%), education (40% to 31%) and climate change (30% to 18%).
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 844 respondents credited Labor with a 53.5-46.5 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 34% and Greens 13%, with Chris Minns leading Dominic Perrottet 52-48 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted over a week ago, from March 10 to 14.
wish if minns does not want togo on attack him self he needs sumone like prue carr or moohkey to do it jackson was good before but seems to be repeating the lines minns bigest problim is he is not willing to go on the qattack much labor should be focusing on ceruption scandles
dont get the poleing for one nation latham has hardly campaigned this election and seems to be egnored apart from sky news or 2 g b dont know where sky news is getting the poleing
The One Nation vote seems to be made up of ex Liberals who hate Matt Kean.
As for the Perrottett ambulance issue, it would be dumb for Minns to have gone on the attack over this and made it personal, that tactic would easily backfire on Labor.
If Gareth Ward turns out to be the balance of power, that would likely be bad news for the Coalition. Remember the trouble that Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper turned out to be for the Gillard federal Labor government of 2010-2013, and Geoff Shaw turned out to be for the Victorian Coalition government of 2010-2014.
If Ward turns out to be the 47th supply-and-confidence member for a returned NSW Coalition minority government, he may be a very ripe target.
Just prepolled in Woolgoolga (Coffs Harbour electorate) , a phalanx of 6 Nats handing out, 2 ALP, no greens or other minor left parties, and 1 volunteer for the independent Sally Townley. It’s a shame but I think the ALP have run dead here, haven’t seen a single corflute for the ALP candidate (who is a really strong candidate and popular councillor) outside of polling places, although to be fair there’s only a few for the nats I’ve come across and a couple for the greens
After voting I got chatting briefly with the ALP volunteers, and informed them I was on the cusp of voting for them as I met the candidate at the federal election and he’s an absolute legend, but after the Aukus debacle I couldn’t vote 1 ALP. They advised me that many people had said the same thing, and that a large section of the rank and file we’re also extremely unhappy about it
I still preferenced the ALP , but with OPV you’d have to wonder whether they’ll bleed votes on the progressive left because of it, I’d say the ALP primary will take a hit and not all of it will come back in preferences due to OPV
happyez
In regards to your vote being decided by public transport.
From a Queensland perspective Labor and the Greens have been very productive on PT. Sadly in brisbane we are stuck with an LNP council who is obsessed with busses holding back progress but hopefully that will change, Labor’s proposal at the 2020 council election was a light rail network. For those who are unaware the council has massive power in Brisbane, one of the biggest in the world. Its like a mini state government.
All greens candidates I’ve talked to are extremely positive about all forms of PT, bike lanes, urban planning etc. Of course I cant speak for NSW, but from a Queensland perspective if PT is your utmost priority I would vote 1) Greens 2) Labor
In the leaders’ ‘forum’ or whatever it is this evening, it would be interesting if an audience member asked the Premier about his government-back child savings plan –
“Premier, if you win the election and introduce this scheme, will you be adding $1000 for each of your seven children each year to their accounts, thereby also getting $400 each extra from the State Government? Parents who cannot afford any extra contribution for their own children will nevertheless be helping to fund that $2800 per year your children are getting from the State via various State taxes and levies they pay. Do you think that would constitute a fair system in the current cost of living crisis?”
happyez says:-
I think I’ll vote independent, Greens 2, ALP 3 etc
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I think Labor will accept that as a vote for them as opposed to a vote for the coalition.
Aaron Newton says:
Labor should be focusing on ceruption scandles.
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Which ones?
Gladbags under ICAC investigation?
Barilaro’s self confessed pork barrelling?
etc etc
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 6:11 pm
In the leaders’ ‘forum’ or whatever it is this evening, it would be interesting if an audience member asked the Premier about his government-back child savings plan –
“Premier, if you win the election and introduce this scheme, will you be adding $1000 for each of your seven children each year to their accounts, thereby also getting $400 each extra from the State Government? Parents who cannot afford any extra contribution for their own children will nevertheless be helping to fund that $2800 per year your children are getting from the State via various State taxes and levies they pay. Do you think that would constitute a fair system in the current cost of living crisis?”
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No wonder they call you the ROCKET MAN, that question is like hot ROCKET fuel.
Not dissimilar to the $300 rebate that LOTO in QLD Deb Frecklington was going to give everyone who had a registered car in QLD back in October 2020.
Only problem was Clive Palmer one of Australia’s richest people had 9 cars registered in his name, so he would have pocketed $2,700, while those who could not afford a car got sweet f**k all.
Thank God those LNP A-holes lost to Labor’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Why don’t you send it in to SKY, who knows.
Will the wild mob of Maronite Catholic fanatics at Mark Latham’s event be placed on an extremist watch list? Surely those involved in violence should be. Imagine if they were Muslims!
Lars Von Trier says:
It seems to me there’s about a 75% chance of a Labor/ Greens coalition – 25% chance that Labor bags a few seats but falls short and the Libs cobble together some form of Independent support from without.
Sorry if that sounds wishy washy. I think the final Newspoll should make it clearer for all.
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I’m sorry too Lars.
I need a Labor will win or the Liberals will win ‘statement from the heart’.
Then I’ll put you in a column.
Can’t wait for Newspoll !
I presume there will be one.
Ch10 News going hard on Dom’s preferential treatment to get his wife an ambulance.
Also saying 638,000 or 11.5% have already cast their pre-poll vote
You’d be the only person left in Sydney watching Channel 10 sprocket.
What news from Ryde? Has the hour of Lyndal Howison arrived?
There must be something in the water at Ryde Council , half the current council has either been elected (Laxale) or is running for a State seat?
I count:
Lyndal Howison
Jordan Lane
Penny Pederson
Craig Chung
I think there is one other?
Fair prediction Lars. However, the hardcore left element in the NSW Greens would never ever allow a Greens MP to take a Ministry in a Labor dominated Cabinet.
First question in the Sky News People’s Forum, will Perrottet not sell off any more assets and maybe buy something back down the line? Can you not budget so you need to sell things off?
Could the Greens pick up any lower house seats this election, given the middling promises of Labor. Lismore and Summer Hill both seem to have potential looking at past results but what do people on the ground think?
Lars
Ryde, as you know, is heavily influenced by the Chinese diaspora. The redistribution has not changed much, and with Dominello putting the cue in the rack, the Liberal name recognition has gone.
Jordan Lane who? A white male staffer, wet behind the ears, is not going to excite the Asian heritage voter who swung recently to Labor – and quite likes the Albanese government.
Labor could run a drover’s dog and challenge the 8.9 margin
FreeMoney says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 7:39 pm
Could the Greens pick up any lower house seats this election
No
I think it’s about 80% chance of a Labor Government, comprising 15% majority, government, 50% comfortable minority, 15% hard work to assemble minority. For the Coalition, 10% comfortable minority, 8% hard work minority, 2% majority.
Aqualung says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 5:19 pm
FFS could someone in NSW Labor grow a spine.
Minns takes Dorky Dom at his word that he wasn’t after preferential treatment for his wife.
YES HE WAS.
You ring 000 for an ambulance not the minister for health and the head of the ambulance service.
It doesn’t matter what priority was allocated. IT WAS WRONG!
Put the boot in. Does anyone think the fibs wouldn’t?
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I wouldn’t worry too much about it Aqualung. People aren’t stupid. They know what DORKY DOM
has done and some will not vote for him accordingly.
Not much you can do about it it except maybe start your own newspaper or TV channel.
Thank god for social media and young people.
Ch 7 news did the preferential ambulance story. Minns, asked what he would do, avoided the obvious political trap of saying “I would never do that”. Instead, he said he wasn’t sure what he would do in a similar situation as Perrottet (i.e. this is an issue for Dom, I don’t go into hypotheticals).
Minns also promised to release the secret (until 2060) contracts between the government and toll road operators. One hostile reporter said (wtte) you can’t change the contracts so why not keep them secret?
Historyintime says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 7:49 pm
I think it’s about 80% chance of a Labor Government, comprising 15% majority, government, 50% comfortable minority, 15% hard work to assemble minority. For the Coalition, 10% comfortable minority, 8% hard work minority, 2% majority.
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I take it from that I am to leave you on the ‘Labor will win ‘ column.
Surely you have to have a 1% Kiama wacky factor in any estimate of probability?
S. Simpson says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 7:05 pm
Fair prediction Lars. However, the hardcore left element in the NSW Greens would never ever allow a Greens MP to take a Ministry in a Labor dominated Cabinet.
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I repeat something I’ve said many times on PB:
NEVER SAY NEVER and EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.
When they do the post-mortem (win lose or draw).
Will the extremely late preselection for the ALP in Ryde, Oatley and Drummoyne (where the candidate had to withdraw) – be a factor in the ALP missing out on these seats?
There all go with government seats aren’t they?
Seats evolve over time, Goulburn is far more likely to be a goes with the government seat from now than Drummoyne.
sprocket says:
Labor could run a drover’s dog and challenge the 8.9 margin. (In Ryde)
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If only someone put the ‘drover’s dog’ on the ballot paper, we may have had a dog as PM or in this election a dog as the new member for Ryde.
Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 7:32 pm
Funny to see that federal labor are making the same mistakes as the former coalition Gov. As Rex pointed out, huge own goal from labor. Add them to the very long list of people that took on Dan Andrew’s and his government on climate change/energy, and came out looking foolish.
As p1 identified above. Federal labor think they’re onto a winner with their current plan – say all the right things but then do what Tony Abbott would do. How’s that work out for the last PM to try it – Turnbull??
It’s disappointing that federal, NSW and tas labor are so pathetic. The rest of the branches are actually pretty good
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My goodness, VE, Rex and P1 are on the same page.’
The Greens are blocking housing action and the Greens are blocking climate action.
Labor builds.
The Greens block.
The Coalition destroys.
This is how Dom would answer the hypothetical about the school fund scheme question: “will you be adding $1000 for each of your seven children each year to their accounts, thereby also getting $400 each extra from the State Government?”
“Under the NSW Constitution I could be disqualified under the provisions for profit under the crown, much like the Federal Australian Constitution Section 44. For avoidance of doubt I will not accept any money under this program. Thank you.”
There. Answer deflected.
Boerwar says:
The Greens are blocking housing action and the Greens are blocking climate action.
Labor builds.
The Greens block.
The Coalition destroys.
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Just about sums up the Federal scene at present.
So I think Labor starts with 37 seats (according to Williams pendulum).
They gain Parramatta and East Hills – go to 39 seats.
The Libs go from 47 to 45 seats (again based on the pendulum)
According to the bookie odds 5 seats are competitive:
Camden
Goulburn
Holsworthy
Upper Hunter
Kiama
So I think Labor has to win 3 of the 5 to end up on equal numbers with the Libs. If the Nats fluke a country seat it becomes tougher still.
Am i missing something with this analysis?
bobsays:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 8:18 pm
This is how Dom would answer the hypothetical about the school fund scheme question: “will you be adding $1000 for each of your seven children each year to their accounts, thereby also getting $400 each extra from the State Government?”
“Under the NSW Constitution I could be disqualified under the provisions for profit under the crown, much like the Federal Australian Constitution Section 44. For avoidance of doubt I will not accept any money under this program. Thank you.”
There. Answer deflected.
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Doesn’t matter how he may answer it, the message will get through that people on high wages will benefit a hell of a lot more than those on low wages.
In the same way that the QLD LNP $300 rego rebate would have benefited Clive Palmer with 9 cars to the tune of $2,700 while those who could not afford a car got f**k all.
People aren’t stupid !
It would be ironic if failing to win Upper Hunter effectively did another Labor leader in wouldn’t it?
I refuse to watch the ‘peoples’ forum on principle due to the hosting ‘network’.
I doubt they will get any Minns dirt to gain traction through the MSM.
Interesting briefings today out of sussex street.
More and more seat by seat tracking has been described as ‘too good to be true’ in many pre-2011 old Labor heartland seats.
Tweed, Drummoyne and Goulburn are close to being considered highly likely gains.
Minn’s own personal approval is also tracking up with key traits coming up in many seats.
Strategists on both sides are conceding Minns has struck a cord with the middle harbour electorates such as Drummoyne and to a lesser extent Balmain.
I’m hearing that the Ayres campaign has been left to it’s own devices from here on in with other coalition Mps annoyed with all the resources and focus the party has ploughed his way for not much if any returns. The state executive wanted a good bounce from last week’s Penrith road show and apparently it has backfired majorly on them with another 2 points wiped off the lastest numbers for that seat.
In Kiama its anticipated that the OPV will derail both the Ward and Lib pathways to capture that seat. Factional tension has erupted in the Lib camp in the last few days over the decision to run a Liberal in Kiama- they are very concerned it will leave a sour taste in the electorate as it is becoming more and more apparent Ward is all smoke and mirrors with a big whack coming his was on saturday.
Leftiebrawler: Labor ahead in Goulburn, according to polling leaked to Sky News.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 8:30 pm
So I think Labor starts with 37 seats (according to Williams pendulum).
They gain Parramatta and East Hills – go to 39 seats.
The Libs go from 47 to 45 seats (again based on the pendulum)
According to the bookie odds 5 seats are competitive:
Camden
Goulburn
Holsworthy
Upper Hunter
Kiama
So I think Labor has to win 3 of the 5 to end up on equal numbers with the Libs. If the Nats fluke a country seat it becomes tougher still.
Am i missing something with this analysis?
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Lars, I’ve penciled you in under ‘Liberals to win’.
We can always ink it in later or rub it out and change it, should the Newspoll change your view.
Evan its very intersting isn’t it.
But people need to understand that it still has a core “metro” populatyion of over 20,000 – many of whom are working class bvlue collar types who may work in the supporting industries of the surrounding agricultural lands most have very suburban lives. Some of the oldest trade union movements and history can be traced to the city as well.
I could see Kiama, Goulburn and SC all going red on Saturday.
Yeah I missed Penrith – so its 2 out the 5 that Labor needs to win to be on equal numbers.
Tweed and Drummoyne I’ll believe it when I see it – leftiebrawler.
No I’m not saying the Libs – 98.6 . I am saying there are 6 seats (If I am charitable and throw in Tweed) that are close. All of those have the betting odds in favour of the Libs.
Let’s see what Newspoll says tomorrow or Friday night. If they all broke for Labor – that would give them 46 seats – 1 short.
Lars I spent a week in Tweed Heads for the january break in a modest river cabin.
I can assure you that sans the beach high rises the place is now more ‘cenny coast’ suburban than the central coast ever was. Highly urbanised, a growing working class suburban sprawl etc etc
Lars you really need to add South Coast into your group there.
That seat will be the suprise of the night and BOTH sets of strategists know it
Maybe leftie.
Who would know with those 6 seats. Labor only has to win 2 out of the 6 to end up 42:42 w/ 9 Greens and Indy’s.
Let’s see the final Newspoll – maybe the undecided break decisively and it becomes clearer who wins.
EDIT: South Coast odds are 1.15 Libs to 5.00 Labor
I would say based on these figures you would have to say Liberal Majority is gooorn.
If Labor has a weakness in terms of seats I would be looking closely at the South west Vietnamese-Yugoslavian (combined balkan slavic communities) pokie belt for an against the grain Labor loss.
But to be honest they can have that region and good luck with it!.
Wakehurst seems to be the last best hope of the Teals. No Teal wave by the looks of it.
Yes, Lars, I know the odds and SC labor is down from its usual 10-15/1 odds.
Fact in the retirement of long sitting former speaker Hancock, continued demographic change that has seen an influx of young working , left leaning progressive families from the Wol-Syd-New metroplex, a sitting Labor member in the corresponding federal seat that has brushed off two high profile parachuted in Lib candidates. Lokk at he local council, several Labor members in the wards along with a directly elected and now multi term serving Greens party mayor.
Also, Labor has a quality candidate who is respected in the community as community-based advocate and achiever. The liberals have thrown in a dismal candidate spat out the arse end of the young Liberal and electorate office worker machine
Sky News forum result:
Perrottet 32
Minns 48
Undecided 20
CHEERS LEROY!
Only about 60 hours to go LeftieB.
Lets see what Newspoll does – If its 53:47 you would have to say more likely than not Labor wins (given where the other polls are).
If its 51: 49 could be a long night.
”
Leroysays:
Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 9:17 pm
Sky News forum result:
Perrottet 32
Minns 48
Undecided 20
”
I did not watch the debate. Is above reflective of how debate went or is it usual schtick of Labor leader winning the numbers?