Newspoll will presumably be with us later today – for now, the news media relates the following:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Coalition “has all but written off the prospect of forming a majority but sees a best-case scenario where it wins the new seat of Leppington in south-west Sydney, fends off the teals in the north and can cobble together enough support from independents to form minority government”. Labor sources are “bemused by the government’s campaign tactics in the final days, with Perrottet visiting reasonably safe Liberal seats such as South Coast, Camden, Ryde and Drummoyne”. Both parties consider the situation unclear due to “a large cohort of undecided voters, a degree of ‘softness’ among those who are leaning one way or another, and the unpredictability of optional preferential voting”.
• As reported on Sky News yesterday, the day before and on Tuesday, polling that was apparently conducted for the Minerals Council Australia shows the Liberals leading 51-49 ahead in Penrith and 59-41 in Winston Hills; Labor leading 52-48 in Leppington and 53-47 in Goulburn; a 50-50 contest between the Liberals and independent Michael Regan in Wakehurst; teal independent Helen Conway leading the Liberals 54-46 in North Shore; and Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward leading Labor 53-47 in Kiama (which probably should be higher going off the primary votes), with the Liberals a very distant third. Some issues with the polling should be noted: parties who weren’t running in the seats in question were offered as response options, and respondents were seemingly primed to respond negatively on Matt Kean’s performance by being asked if they “agree that (he) is responsible for pushing up energy prices”. The result in Kean’s own seat of Hornsby had him leading just 53-47, a swing of 14%. One Nation were consistently credited with strong results, peaking at 17% in Penrith and 15% in Hornsby, where they respectively polled 7.2% and 4.5% in 2019. The polls seemingly covered several other seats as well, so there may be more to come.
• Stephen Rice of The Australian reports Liberal sources believe the party’s determination to bar Gareth Ward from parliament if he retains Kiama as an independent has boosted his local support, with one quoted citing resentment at being “told what to do or who they can vote for”.
Outside left is indeed Labor South Coast royalty from a very passionate Labor family. It must be over 2 decades ago at least since Outside left arrived to reinvigorate the local rank and file at a very low eb for them during the Gash years of domination.
I have a really good feeling for South coast tomorrow!.
1999 was the first campaign I was dragged into as a young teenager to letter drop etc in those days of ‘Country Labor’ as it was then. Wayne smith won it for us by a mere 50 votes of I remember. Hopefully history repeats down there for Labor tomorrow evening!!
@Lars – quiet Friday night for you
Lars, Mr and Mrs Stuart Ayres could weigh in overweight…
Assuming Penrith holds.
jt1983 says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:59 pm
@Lars – quiet Friday night for you
_________________________________
It is in fact.
Lars have you been fermenting and inhaling jenkem again????
15% swing?? I never claimed that.
Greens could well decide South Coast. If there is a big enough vote for them and their preferences are disciplined they might push Labor over the top.
True that sprocket. I knew you would know the answer. Happy fatties I think. Labor must have some rival porker up Newy way surely?
wranslide it also helps that the local mayor covering 95% of the south coast seat is a NSW Green who has been directly elected several times in a row now.
GladysB struggling to fit in the frame…
Where’s enough already/Macarthur? surely there is a Ukraine angle to the NSW election?
Will there be a newspoll tonight?
In 14 minutes according to shell bell based on 2019.
That looks like its outside the Chinese restaurant in the western end of High St Penrith, where the health inspector found cat carcasses in the late 1980s.
Hence the joke are you having the cous-cous?. No i think its puss puss
Good evening OC. Feeling lucky?
What comes after NSW election? Aston then there’s a long drought isnt there?
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:24 pm
What comes after NSW election? Aston then there’s a long drought isnt there?
________________________
Deakin by-election afterwards – here’s hoping 😉
Lars
I don’t think I have seen a duller campaign with both sides being small target. Will there be a high informal rate because people have not realised there is an election?
The only shock I have had is the revelation by A-E that J’aime is still allowed into the war room
I suspect ScoMo will up stumps depending upon Aston/ Albo’s popularity.
As a good party hack he would want to anoint his successor.
Cook could also be handy for a refugee from State Parly – assuming Newspoll/ The election is a looser for the Libs.
Cook by election
Good points OC. I think J’aime will be rehabilitated if Minns wins.
No doubt there will be people tomorrow in Greens/ ON colours handing out Just Vote 1 pamphlets at the booths too!
54.5 – 45.5
Re 98.6@8:06 PM.
Please also put me down as Labor (minority).
cheers, yabba
54.5 – 45.5 Its good night Irene.
A Minnslide..
Jebus…
EXCLUSIVE
Minns set to secure NSW Labor win
Daily Telegraph March 24/3/23. NSW Labour leader Chris Minns goes on a meet and greet in the early hours at Sydney Markets Homebush,on election eve .picture John Grainger
NSW Labor leader Chris Minns is poised to lead the ALP back into government after 12 years in the wilderness, with Newspoll showing the party is on the cusp of claiming a majority.
Labor majority govt on those figures is my call 98.6 . Its not really rocket science to make that call.
The death eaters are back!!!!!!!
Who’s going to do the first Bob Who? Enigmatic campaign genius story in the media?
Newspoll is just a poll and who knows whether it is uniform. The swing needs to spread over so many seats.
Lars, Macarthur is probably calling for a live address by Zelensky to NSW Parliament.
wranslide says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:37 pm
Newspoll is just a poll and who knows whether it is uniform. The swing needs to spread over so many seats.
__________
Nah it would have to be the mother of all polling errors for Labor to lose from here.
ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 others 16
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:37 pm
Who’s going to do the first Bob Who? Enigmatic campaign genius story in the media?
—–
Poor old Bob. On that swing he might even get elected by the person he sprayed and blocked and campaigned against for years. Funny old business politics.
98.6
Please put me down for Lab MAJORITY
Thx
I wouldn’t mind if the Nationals copped an absolutely hammering. There really is a need for it and I suspect if the Libs are going down then they wouldnt mind either.
Looks like the electorate is going to administer some colonic irrigation wranslide to at least a few MP’s.
The smart ones where the Liberal retirees like Dominello.
Ven says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:54 pm
”
Upnorthsays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:23 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 7:17 pm
@Upnorth
Yes, NSW is still currently in DST until 2 April
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber. 2pm close of booths up here then. Bloody hot at the moment so I will do my walk in the morning and get some beers ready for the arvo. come what may.
”
And make them cold.
中华人民共和国
Yes matey Beer Lao chilled down nicely – the Thais IMHO make very good Ice that doesn’t melt at the drop of a hat!
Just to lighten the NSW peeps tension, as a young fella I used to go up to Charters Towers to the Goldfield Ashes. Its rated the largest cricket carnival in the known universe. It’s held around Australia Day and the mercury regularly pushes about 40+ if there are no Cyclones around.
An old bloke who grew up cutting sugar cane by hand and enjoyed his beer would drive his Kingswood out and camp in it over the stay. One particulary hot day we were playing a team from Ingham. We came off for drinks and old mate popped the boot of his Kingswood, grabbed a hot XXXX tallie, knocked it on the head and chugged it back.
He must have seen the look of amazement on my face and said wise words which I still remember to this day: “Don’t worry son – it didn’t burn my lips”.
Good luck tomorrow to all the booth workers especially booth captains and scrutineers especially you Dear C@t. Go well.
Hi, been a long time follower, I have a question
Does the 2PP here take into account exhausted votes which are endemic to optional preferential? Or does it distribute preferences based on the federal model? If it’s the latter, Labor should be encouraged but not popping the corks yet.
OC,
I presume you are taking the piss?
There was no Chinese restaurant on the western end of High Street in the 1980s.
However, the longstanding, only (until the early 1990s) excellent Chinese restaurant on the eastern end of High street was also rumoured to be serving cat in the chicken chow mien instead of chicken.
I got the information that the Penrith Chinese restaurant was serving cat (no need to say which restaurant – there was only one) when we visited my mothers friend, Pam, in what we now call Lemongrove, in around 1971. She was a childhood friend of my mother, an army wife, and even when she told my mother that the local Chinese Restaurant was serving cat instead of chicken, I was sceptical.
My mother to this day is convinced that the local Chinese Restaurant was indeed serving cat.
Patrick Cook had some wonderful cartoons in the 1980s, which I have not managed to find in a quick search, about how much harder it would be to hunt cats during the night, to bag, and then serve in your Restaurant, compared to just buying some already killed and plucked chickens.
Lars, Dominello leaves with his reputation intact and enhanced. After all apart from all the digital stuff some say he did alert us to the reckless driving record of Daley as a public safety measure.
I find it difficult to envision a scenario where the primaries and TPP look like that tomorrow night without Labor ending up with some form of majority.
Now that is a Newspoll wow. Hoping to see numbers like that tomorrow night.
Douglas the old ‘Penrith hilton’ ? haha
Douglas the old ‘Penrith hilton’ ? haha
Okay, with the Newspoll released, I make my prediction a majority Labor government tomorrow.
Asha says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:46 pm
I find it difficult to envision a scenario where the primaries and TPP look like that tomorrow night without Labor ending up with some form of majority.
________________________________
The papers are burning in Governor Macquarie Tower, somewhere Scott is in hiding from the corrupt media and sprocket has his camera out waiting to take photos of Fat Liberals in distress for his private pleasure collection.
Dr Bonham says.,
#Newspoll Don’t have the exact numbers yet but Minns is ahead on “Better Premier”, which skews to incumbents, by 2%. Also his netsat is up to +14 (I don’t have Perrottet’s)
The discredited Tory rag known as the SMH’s endorsement is perhaps the kiss of political death for Perrottet and the NSW Liberal Party.
Great game of footy at Suncorp.
New kids on the block Dolphins are the real deal, even though they lost 18-12 to the Broncos, they were absolutely brilliant in only their fourth game.
3 wins out of 4 ain’t bad.
Full house at Suncorp with 52,000 watching this historic match.
Had all the atmosphere of a State of Origin final.
Lots of yelling and screaming at the 98.6 house.
There’s a man goin’ round taking names
He decides who to free and who to blame
everyone won’t be treated just the same
There’ll be a golden ladder reaching down
when the man comes around