Newspoll will presumably be with us later today – for now, the news media relates the following:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Coalition “has all but written off the prospect of forming a majority but sees a best-case scenario where it wins the new seat of Leppington in south-west Sydney, fends off the teals in the north and can cobble together enough support from independents to form minority government”. Labor sources are “bemused by the government’s campaign tactics in the final days, with Perrottet visiting reasonably safe Liberal seats such as South Coast, Camden, Ryde and Drummoyne”. Both parties consider the situation unclear due to “a large cohort of undecided voters, a degree of ‘softness’ among those who are leaning one way or another, and the unpredictability of optional preferential voting”.
• As reported on Sky News yesterday, the day before and on Tuesday, polling that was apparently conducted for the Minerals Council Australia shows the Liberals leading 51-49 ahead in Penrith and 59-41 in Winston Hills; Labor leading 52-48 in Leppington and 53-47 in Goulburn; a 50-50 contest between the Liberals and independent Michael Regan in Wakehurst; teal independent Helen Conway leading the Liberals 54-46 in North Shore; and Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward leading Labor 53-47 in Kiama (which probably should be higher going off the primary votes), with the Liberals a very distant third. Some issues with the polling should be noted: parties who weren’t running in the seats in question were offered as response options, and respondents were seemingly primed to respond negatively on Matt Kean’s performance by being asked if they “agree that (he) is responsible for pushing up energy prices”. The result in Kean’s own seat of Hornsby had him leading just 53-47, a swing of 14%. One Nation were consistently credited with strong results, peaking at 17% in Penrith and 15% in Hornsby, where they respectively polled 7.2% and 4.5% in 2019. The polls seemingly covered several other seats as well, so there may be more to come.
• Stephen Rice of The Australian reports Liberal sources believe the party’s determination to bar Gareth Ward from parliament if he retains Kiama as an independent has boosted his local support, with one quoted citing resentment at being “told what to do or who they can vote for”.
This is going to be a fascinating election to watch, and my focus would be the Teals, they may be the deciding factor to sink the Liberal party in crucial Liberal seats (with the help of ALP and Greens), whereas the reciprocal flow of preferences may get the ALP over the top in currently marginal Liberal seats.
Although state and federal elections, plus current polls are different data that may or may not relate to each other, they are interesting to compare anyway:
Primary Vote
Party……………………..NSW 2022 Fed Elect……….NSW 2019 State Elec…….NSW 2023 polls (March average)
Coalition……………………36.54%……………………………….41.58%………………………………..36.3
ALP……………………………33.38……………………………………33.31……………………………………36.3
Greens……………………….10.02…………………………………..9.57……………………………………..10.3
PHON…………………………4.84…………………………………….1.10………………………………………–
UAP…………………………….3.94…………………………………….–………………………………………..–
It’s clear that the Greens are incredibly stable in NSW, with a primary vote of about 10%. PHON and UAP (and presumably others) fluctuate widely, and they look like the sides that can tip the balance. They must have helped the Coalition in 2019, but they could help Labor in 2023. Presumably, working class NSW people see Labor more of a source of help than the Coalition this time around… and boy they need help right now! The Teals could be the wild card at this election, further eroding the Coalition primary vote and then affecting the 2PP in specific seats.
I hope that it doesn’t come down to relying on Gareth Ward if the Liberals want to form government. Ick!
What were the primary votes in the Kiama Poll? Feel on the ground is it’s definitely a race between ALP and Ward…
More similarities between NSW and federal election
Final days in the federal election campaign, Morrison canceled going into Labor seats and campaigned in the safe lib/nats seats , Minns Like Albanese campaigned in Liberal party seats
The NSW lib/nats will get no where near 40 seats with combined primary vote of 36%
The Liberals and much of the media are banking on people voting the Liberals back in because the electorate is supposedly disengaged and apathetic and the other bloke is totally unknown etc. Time will tell on that one.
As for Kiama, if they vote Ward back in and he is then convicted, they will be going to a byelection.
@98.6
Put me down for an ALP minority win
Hopefully the greens and crossbench demand a stronger stance on pokies, and maybe a return of full preferential voting as the price of government
So the perennial Perrottet boosters the SMH have come out backing the Liberals (surprise surprise).
Have other outlets come out yet? If The Guardian doesn’t do an editorial, all mastheads will back the Coalition I suspect.
Give Perrottet a chance to show what he’s capable of, SMH!?! What a pathetic excuse to use to support a man who dressed in a Nazi suit for his 21st, was the Treasurer during iCare and the Darryl Maguire and Pork Barilaro eras and who, as Premier, started the sell off of the state’s water assets!
Give. Me. A. Break!
@98.6
I’ll go with Labor to form government
I suspect Ward will win Kiama. The crimes he is accused of are shocking. But they are allegations at this stage and the prosecution has not exactly been swift. He is entitled to a presumption like all citizens and I believe that there is a feeling (legitimate or not) amongst the voters that he should be given his day in Court and that it was wrong for both sides to suspend him (and through him them) from the Parliament.
There is likely a strong feeling of we decide and not you.
Ward clearly had some good local runs on the board to engender some good will locally.
Balmain seems to have gone quiet. I expect the Greens to hold it.
Leppington is an interesting one. The Labor candidate did not do well in the Mayoral contest. But this should be a seat coming to Labor all account of most issues. The Liberals have failed expanding and growing areas with schools and hospitals being in a shocking state. That should also apply for Camden and Penrith but Camden especially leans conservative but the demographics have changed. It is no longer the rural outskirt of Sydney.
The TEALS if any elected (and I think Reagan is likely to win) will back the Libs.
There is a good chance the Libs can hold this with the support of the cross bench. Of course Labor will get there if they are close enough which when you add the Greens they have a majority but other than the Greens I am not sure they can count on any other cross benchers who are likely to be elected (except maybe Helen Dalton if she is reelected given the way the Nats have behaved).
The papers and media doing all they can to say boring and why change and now if you want change DOM IS THE CHANGE (the herald never changes).
Hahaha the Sydney Morning Herald editorial endorses the Liberal Party. Who didn’t see that coming! Also note Alex Greenwich’s blast at Labor. This confirms my suspicions that deep down he is Liberal leaning but is tempered by his progressive electorate.
The newspapers were never going to endorse the ALP when they don’t know what they are endorsing.
On ABC Breakfast TV show for every question asked by Michael Rowland Matt Kean answer was We are focused on keeping economy strong and moving state forward.
It doesn’t matter what the question is. He was like a broken record.
For example, what do you think of NSW Liberals accusing Minerals council poll and Conservative commentators of undermining your election chances, Matt Kean answer was We are focused on keeping economy strong and moving state forward.
It looks to me like Labor would romp in if not for optional preferential voting. Great work Bob Carr.
If there’s any move to go back to full preferential, that would mean undoing the entrenchment in the constitution. See the extensive discussion in the threads about the Victorian election on if/how that might be possible.
Ah newspaper endorsements – what a quaint concept. Who really trusts the political judgment of newspapers nowadays? Certainly nobody under 50.
Do newspaper editorial endorsements sway that many votes these days anyway, as most punters don’t read the Herald or the Daily Tele or the Australian.
I could have predicted weeks ago the Sydney Morning Herald would endorse Perrottett, their chief state political correspondent is a virtual fangirl for Dom, and the Herald have pushed cashless gaming cards as some sort of major election issue that in their opinion, Minns has failed to meet the mark on.
And the Herald too love Matt Kean, another factor, he gets a completely different press in the Murdoch papers.
At state level, I doubt the SMH has ever endorsed the election of a state Labor government in NSW, not even during the period of Bob Carr’s dominance in the 90s and early 2000s.
”
Shellbellsays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:12 am
The newspapers were never going to endorse the ALP when they don’t know what they are endorsing.
”
So after 12 years of scandals, corruption, pork barrelling, changing 4 Premiers, all 3 Premiers resigned under the cloud of corruption, Barilaro corruption and misuse of power for personal gain, The Newspapers know what they are endorsing when they endorsed Liberals isn’t it?
But when we talk about NSW Labor newspapers say Obeid boo, McDonald boo, Tripodi boo.
Have NSW public become so desensitise by NSW Liberals and Nationals Shenanigans?
Would have been something for anyone to endorse Chika
The corrupt media is going to see what the voting public thinks of the corrupt media being the Lib/nats propaganda media units , no lib/nats government but
Federal and labor state/territories ( Labor/Greens ACT) governments on mainland Australia
Those expecting Alex Greenwich to support Labor might be shocked. As I said above the path to victory for Labor is difficult and unless there is a sizeable swing in must win seats (and the Nats fall away) then the Libs would be overwhelming favourites with the cross bench.
If Labor misses Balmain then it will be an indictment on the campaign strategists who have pumped up that campaign at the expense of other seats which needed it. Labor is not flush with cash or resources according to the poorly run administration (if you believe Smith and Bramston) so resources have to be focussed The Greens (as painful as it is) would naturally lean Labor in any hung Parliament so why not go and get other seats in play and leave Balmain to Balmain.
I am actually surprised that the North Coast is not more in play given all the terrible stuff (and lagging and woeful responses to it) by the Govt.
Anyway, in reality, nobody really knows and we will all end up with egg on our face when it comes to predictions and early observations eventually.
”
EightESsays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:23 am
It looks to me like Labor would romp in if not for optional preferential voting. Great work Bob Carr.
If there’s any move to go back to full preferential, that would mean undoing the entrenchment in the constitution. See the extensive discussion in the threads about the Victorian election on if/how that might be possible.
”
EightES
It was not Bob Carr who introduced Optional voting in NSW. Go ahead and take another shot.
Scottsays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:29 am
The corrupt media is going to see what the voting public thinks of the corrupt media being the Lib/nats propaganda media units , no lib/nats government but
Federal and labor state/territories ( Labor/Greens ACT) governments on mainland Australia
——
Scott, what do you think will happen to the corrupt media when your prediction happens? Do you think that one of their executives might be appointed to the Australia Post Chair or continue to retain seats on the Board of the ABC. It couldnt happen could it?
Ven,
My apologies. I was going by memory. I’ve just consulted with Mr. Google and I can’t find anything on the history of OPV (but lots of articles on how it works). I would’ve sworn it was Bob Carr, who wanted to take advantage of three-cornered contests with a split Liberal/ National vote.
Enlighten me.
EightES
Sometime ago I made the same mistake like you. Can’t remember properly, But I was corrected by either Anthony Green or William Bowe or Kevin Bohnam that it was Wran government who introduced OPV system.
If Greenwich supports an L/NP minority government in a situation where Labor wins more seats than the L/NP then Greenwich will be rightly condemned. He will be the Tony Windor or Rob Oakeshott of NSW Politics. Labor (and the Greens to an extent) would treat him and campaign against him as of he is a member of the L/NP. I reckon he wouldn’t run again in 2027 if this pans out.
Shellbell
In addition to below I forgot to mention another achievement of LNP government of treating the people of Western Sydney (excluding Penrith people) like caged animals/ third rate citizens of this state during the months of June, July and August, 2020 of Delta COVID era, where as people of North Shore and Eastern suburbs were allowed to move relatively freely.
My blood boils Shellbell, my blood boils whenever I think of that treatment.
”
Vensays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:27 am
”
Shellbellsays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:12 am
The newspapers were never going to endorse the ALP when they don’t know what they are endorsing.
”
So after 12 years of scandals, corruption, pork barrelling, changing 4 Premiers, all 3 Premiers resigned under the cloud of corruption, Barilaro corruption and misuse of power for personal gain, The Newspapers know what they are endorsing when they endorsed Liberals isn’t it?
But when we talk about NSW Labor newspapers say Obeid boo, McDonald boo, Tripodi boo.
Have NSW public become so desensitise by NSW Liberals and Nationals Shenanigans?
Watch East Hills. If the swing is not on early there then that could be the night.
Newspoll –
54/46: put away the glasses, the swing is back, Labor gets majority on the back of a few ‘surprise’ wins
53/47: close enough, unless the cards fall badly a fairly comfortable Labor minority government
52/48: mmm.
51/49: the knives are unsheathed.
I think Newspoll will come it 53.5/46.5 (and the election 53/47) based on no evidence whatsoever other than ‘the vibe’ (and the other polls!). The ALP has done OK in the campaign and I think the political environment in general still favours Labor across Australia.
DT refers to another another poll. It shows a not very happy electorate and is in line with earlier polling.
”
Historyintimesays:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 9:16 am
Newspoll –
54/46: put away the glasses, the swing is back, Labor gets majority on the back of a few ‘surprise’ wins
53/47: close enough, unless the cards fall badly a fairly comfortable Labor minority government
52/48: mmm.
51/49: the knives are unsheathed.
I think Newspoll will come it 53.5/46.5 (and the election 53/47) based on no evidence whatsoever other than ‘the vibe’ (and the other polls!). The ALP has done OK in the campaign and I think the political environment in general still favours Labor across Australia.
”
For a moment I thought Newspoll came at 54:46 in favour of NSW Labor. 🙂
Then I read the whole post.
The DT seems to be somewhat less supportive of the Liberals than the SMH (not that they support Labor). Opinion piece by their state political reporter:
And Latham has problems with the Libs:
DT attitude summed up with today’s dead tree front page
A cynic would say the smh endorses whoever it feels gives it greater access to power, not who best serves the electorate. At least this election they’ve been so blatant at it (well just a few notable writers, not everyone) that even a boiled potato could figure it out, paradoxically leaving them will less power at the ballot box.
Often pushing parts of the media toward the periphery of power is no bad thing, usually improves their work so far as I’m concerned.
S. Simpson. Clover Moore won Bligh (predecessor to Sydney) from the Liberals, and the demographics have tended to be unfavorable to Labor since then – everything is just concealed under the heavy independent presence at Local and State level and Plibersek’s incumbency and seniority at Federal level.
But there was a reason why the State Libs spent so much effort trying to blast Moore out early in its tenure, and it wasn’t an expectation that Labor would win the state seat or on council.
(And to the rest of the conversation, yes newspaper endorsements are pointless, especially nowadays)
Re opv.. there is an argument as to whether it can be entrenched in the constitution without a referendum to do this in the first place. Maybe the courts would decide this anyway
What disgraceful rags the ‘Nine Papers’ have become under Costello & co. with Hartcher’s red-ragging and their endorsement of the establishment. Even under the ownership of Fairfax family, the papers were allowed to exercise a fair degree of independence. While a few respected voices remain, the papers’ direction is clear – and it’s all headed in the downmarket direction of their tabloids and shock jock radio stations. I suggest we rename these ‘Nine Papers’ as the ‘TV Times’. Does that rag still exist? I dunno, but get used to more celebrity-based ‘news’ that is utterly devoid of substance.
As an outsider now, who was once involved in Federal and State campaigns, I took little comfort in seat by seat polls.
They were the days when you needed a primary vote with a 4 in front of it to have any chance. Today, the punters have discarded the Liberals and gone to One Nation and the Teals. The ALP primary vote has also withered, although preferences are more likely to head their way.
The reason for the Liberal Party’s existence is now a genuine question. And voters are seeing it that way. Internal brawling is a death sentence. And that’s what is increasingly taking place.
The Libs are an increasingly sidelined group of leaderless, self important second rate politicians. The rise of the female dominated Teals says it all.
so the first time the teligraph is more positive towardds labor then the herald who have gone full coalition especialy smith and jordan baker grenich is basickly a liberal protending to be a independent
Having done a few days at prepoll in Yass, Tuckerman probably will do ok at that booth although the two others now seem to favour the Labor candidate , especially the High School. The ability of the older residents to get to the pre polling venue more easily (we spent a lot of time holding brollies over them in the rain yesterday) is going to favour LNP but personally, I saw a lot of voters (many of whom I have taught) who I’d say were going left.
The Town Hall booth went Labor last federal election, probably because of the oldies going to prepoll.
Minns and Pilbrow in Yass yesterday splashing $30+m on roads may help.
Odds are in favour of Tuckerman , but Labor in with a chance.
@Ven
I watched all 3 interviews on ABC Breakfast this morning (thanks YouTube for making it possible to rewind live streams), Minns came across calm, confident and in control, while Kean seemed flustered and ignored most questions by repeating his boilerplate lines.
Reflects how I’m feeling tomorrow will go.
PS: counting, if it does prepoll votes later will probably also favour the LNP as well because the Yass Show was on last Saturday and many farmers voted then to avoid having to come to town again so soon.
I agree with an earlier comment that the punters in Kiama will want to be the ones to remove Ward (or not) rather than the legal system / parliamentary suspension. Is that alone enough for him to hold on in the face of the charges ?
From what I hear the Lib ground game is poor and I’ll guess if they don’t get 17-20% they will not be a spoiler to Ward’s chances.
That’s not to say the ALP candidate can’t win on her own efforts. This will be a seat where early on the night it will be clear what’s going on.
Can I send $ via paypal?
of course important to remember Greenwich seat was formerly Bligh and held by Michael Yabsley. The antecedents are more Libs than anything.
Evan says:
Friday, March 24, 2023 at 8:24 am
Do newspaper editorial endorsements sway that many votes these days anyway, as most punters don’t read the Herald or the Daily Tele or the Australian.
I could have predicted weeks ago the Sydney Morning Herald would endorse Perrottett, their chief state political correspondent is a virtual fangirl for Dom, and the Herald have pushed cashless gaming cards as some sort of major election issue that in their opinion, Minns has failed to meet the mark on.
And the Herald too love Matt Kean, another factor, he gets a completely different press in the Murdoch papers.
At state level, I doubt the SMH has ever endorsed the election of a state Labor government in NSW, not even during the period of Bob Carr’s dominance in the 90s and early 2000s.
中华人民共和国
The “Courier Mail” is even more firmly entrenched in Queensland. It’s a one Newspaper state. It has only backed Labor once since 1989 (when Goss won in 1989).
The LNP has only won one election outright since 1989. The days of Editorials changing results are over.
Good Luck to Minns and all Labor Candidates tomorrow. Labor is the “Only Change for the Better”.
Mr Green comes to town.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/abc-news-daily/antony-green-on-the-cost-of-living-election/102130410
Ooh, optional preferential voting. Doesn’t that put the cat among the disengaged, apathetic pigeons. I predict a very high exhaustion rate after no. 1 preference, especially for conservative minority party voters.
Dominic Perrottet looks like he finally got a professional haircut at last.
EightEs –
OPV was entrenched in the NSW Constitution by Neville Wran’s government back in 1981n(along with PR for the Council). In the 1960s and 1970s, OPV was stated ALP policy in nearly all jurisdictions (Whitlam tried to do it Federally), a response to the DLP stealing votes from Labor and directing them to the Coalition. The ALP switched sides on OPV after the 1990 Federal election, the first time Labor won more seats via preferences than the Coalition, a situation that has remained every since, and with the rise of the Greens, something that is unlikely to change. Conversely, the Right has gone the other way, big supporters of compulsory preferential back in the day (they could thereby be assured of preferences from each other, as well as the DLP), whereas now they support OPV (as they see advantages in splitting the AKLP/ Green vote).
The moral of this story is that you need to be wary of getting anything too prescriptive into the Constitution, because then you are stuck with it, and while it looked advantageous 40 years ago, it’s now more of a hinderance.
Yes the more votes the onp gets in marginal seats the better for Labor.