New South Wales election minus one day

Campaign scuttlebutt and private polling snippets as the finishing post comes into view.

Newspoll will presumably be with us later today – for now, the news media relates the following:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Coalition “has all but written off the prospect of forming a majority but sees a best-case scenario where it wins the new seat of Leppington in south-west Sydney, fends off the teals in the north and can cobble together enough support from independents to form minority government”. Labor sources are “bemused by the government’s campaign tactics in the final days, with Perrottet visiting reasonably safe Liberal seats such as South Coast, Camden, Ryde and Drummoyne”. Both parties consider the situation unclear due to “a large cohort of undecided voters, a degree of ‘softness’ among those who are leaning one way or another, and the unpredictability of optional preferential voting”.

• As reported on Sky News yesterday, the day before and on Tuesday, polling that was apparently conducted for the Minerals Council Australia shows the Liberals leading 51-49 ahead in Penrith and 59-41 in Winston Hills; Labor leading 52-48 in Leppington and 53-47 in Goulburn; a 50-50 contest between the Liberals and independent Michael Regan in Wakehurst; teal independent Helen Conway leading the Liberals 54-46 in North Shore; and Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward leading Labor 53-47 in Kiama (which probably should be higher going off the primary votes), with the Liberals a very distant third. Some issues with the polling should be noted: parties who weren’t running in the seats in question were offered as response options, and respondents were seemingly primed to respond negatively on Matt Kean’s performance by being asked if they “agree that (he) is responsible for pushing up energy prices”. The result in Kean’s own seat of Hornsby had him leading just 53-47, a swing of 14%. One Nation were consistently credited with strong results, peaking at 17% in Penrith and 15% in Hornsby, where they respectively polled 7.2% and 4.5% in 2019. The polls seemingly covered several other seats as well, so there may be more to come.

• Stephen Rice of The Australian reports Liberal sources believe the party’s determination to bar Gareth Ward from parliament if he retains Kiama as an independent has boosted his local support, with one quoted citing resentment at being “told what to do or who they can vote for”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

221 comments on “New South Wales election minus one day”

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  1. For those following the path of leaders as a clue to what’s in play, here is Minns and Prue Carr in Parramatta this morning..

  4. “Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 12:22 pm
    Heartwarming stuff.”

    Good luck to the Greens, but above all let’s remind them who are their political friends and who are their political foes… Making a mistake on that issue could be fatal!

  5. Long line for Pre-Poll in the rain at Randwick Town Hall in Coogee this morning. Just finished up handing out and the line looks to be at least a 45 minute wait.

    Plenty of people showing enthusiasm for Labor, but it seems to be a hyperlocal campaign in Coogee. Lots of concerns about local bus cuts and the lack of a local co-Ed school, but almost nothing on state wide issues mentioned.

  6. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 12:03 pm
    Parramatta would be a good get for Labor considering Geoff Lee’s margin.
    ”

    I never forget Barry O’Farrell comment on 2011 election night wrt Geoff Lee.
    He said Geoff Lee “hit it out of the park” with a swing of 25% (probably the highest in the state).
    A party cannot win power in NSW without winning Parramatta and Penrith.
    That has been the case I can remember.

  8. Polling commissioned by Minerals Council Australia.. why would they poll other than to give a confidence boost to Dom on his way to the gallows… landslide to Labor.

  9. @Sceptic – the worst outcome for MCA would be A Labor Greens minority government, with Kean as Opposition Leader.

    The leaked polling is designed to avoid that fate, having given up on boosting their preferred premier Perrottet.

    Boost labor to majority and pin the blame on Kean to convince the Liberals to select anyone but Kean as OL

  10. NSW2023 – Pre-poll and Postal Vote Application Rates by District by Antony GreenMarch 24, 2023

    This post, which I will update with final figures tomorrow, lists pre-poll vote rates and postal vote application rates by district. The overall figures as of close of business Thursday 23 March 2023 were –

    A total of 1,199,121 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 21.7% of enrolment. Today is the last day for pre-poll voting and is normally the day when the highest number of pre-poll votes are taken.
    There have been 540,208 postal votes applied for and despatched to voters representing 9.8% of enrolment. Postal vote applications closed earlier this week.
    A total of 92,077 postal votes have been returned representing 17.0% of postal vote applications or 1.7% of enrolment.

    Much more detail inside the post.

    https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw2023-pre-poll-and-postal-vote-application-rates-by-district/

  11. Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    ‘…
    Koalas (endangered), south-eastern glossy black-cockatoo (vulnerable) and the Australian painted snipe (endangered) had the greatest overall area where they live affected by logging.
    …’

    Something not quite right here. Painted Snipe are a wetland species.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/24/more-than-half-nsw-forests-lost-since-1750-and-logging-locking-in-species-extinction-study-finds
    Click to Edit – 9 minutes and 49 seconds

  12. Voted early around 11:00 this morning in the seat of Willoughby. There wasn’t much of a queue and I was in and out within 10 minutes.

    Labor has no realistic chance of winning Willoughby, Gladys’ former seat, so I voted strategically for the Teal-like independent candidate Larissa Penn, with Labor 2, Green 3, Sustainable Australia 4 and the sitting Liberal Tim James 5 (last). I voted Labor 1 for the Upper House, 2 Green and numbered a few other boxes above the line for centrist and leftist groups.

    A few observations:
    – Ms Penn’s ‘how to vote’ (htv) does not direct preferences but asks voters to choose the order they want
    – Labor’s htv has Green 2, Ms Penn 3
    – Greens’ htv has Ms Penn 2, Labor 3
    – Liberal htv urges voters to just vote 1 Liberal, no preferences.
    – The Upper House voting paper isn’t a table cloth so much as a scroll about 1.2 metres long by about 30 cm wide.

  13. So, there I was coming back to Chambers from lunch today and who did I bump into in Castlereagh St other than one Jamie Clements. We got to chatting and he said that ‘the word’ was that Labor had 5 seats ‘in the bag’ with another 8 seats rated as a 50-50 proposition. He has no access to labor’s tracking polling though, and made mention of the difficulty in interpreting polling anyways given the intersection of optional preferential voting and several different ‘third forces’ (my phrase) at play in different seats. Anyhoo – he placed great store in how relaxed Chris Minns looks, compared to Dom over recent days.

    Make of that what you will.

  14. Wonder whether Bega is one of the 5. The other 4 would presumably be the Sportsbet odds-on favourites of which only Penrith seems in any real doubt.

  16. Andrew, that sounds like the NSW Labor internal tracking situation I heard about also.

    Sussex st has been trying to keep a lid on what was described to me as “too good to be true numbers”.

    I suspect OPV and a statewide ON primary of 10-20% will decimate the coalition in many seats- potential small landslide could be on the cards..

    Lars- unfortunately for the last 37 years or so I’ve identified as a male.

  17. A bit off topic, but apropos of predictions. Assuming that the ALP wins I think there will also be a ‘fresh start’ for the NSW ALP including ‘modernising’ the administrative structure. In particular, having a neutral Executive Director rather than a General Secretary.

  18. ‘Executive Director’ vs ‘General Secretary’. Doesn’t matter. Who ever is in the position will be the designated hitter for the union secretaries that control the numbers for the general conference.

  19. “Ah Earlwood more war room anecdotes….next thing you’ll have been having lunch with Hawkey.”

    More ‘Miss Carter’s cafe’ (a haunt of the criminal bar in castlereagh st) scuttlebutt than ‘the war room’ these days.

    Haven’t had lunch with Hawkie since 1994.

  20. I’m still hopeful for an upset in Terrigal. We don’t have a Teal candidate to siphon votes away from Labor. The Greens are onside as well. We’re doing a 2 vote, Labor 1 Greens 2 HTV for the Lower House and Labor 1 Greens 2 AJP 3 and Public Education 4 Upper House HTV.

    This has become a very Teal-like electorate and so I am hopeful our candidate appeals because that’s where he’s coming from.

  24. Funny how the different the views are of Labor Insiders and betting markets for seats like Terrigal, Drummoyne and South Coast. I wonder which group are more prone to delusion?

  25. “Funny how the different the views are of Labor Insiders and betting markets for seats like Terrigal, Drummoyne and South Coast. I wonder which group are more prone to delusion?”

    Neither have good predictive value.

  26. At his zenith, Bob Carr won 55 seats in both 1999 and 2003, if Chris Minns is getting anywhere near that tomorrow night, I will be pleasantly surprised.

  27. andrews support for searle there both baristers in sydney along with shane prints and bolton maybi stephin lawence willbecome labors upper house mp there is a few lib ones as well like speakman

  29. I would argue it isn’t the betting markets or “insiders” talking about Drummoyne… I’d dare say the Liberal Premier spending time in a Liberal seat with a near 14% margin a few days before election might be telling, lol.

    If the Lib primary really is tanking in some of these seats to the extent the activity and gossip suggests – with OPV, nothing can really be off the table.

  30. Steve777says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 1:48 pm

    Labor will never win Willoughby or even make it a traditional marginal seat if people so supportive of Labor don’t vote 1 for their candidate!

    It will be extremely close for 2nd on Primary votes tomorrow as compared to the Federal race in North Sydney last year, Ms Penn is not as widely known, she has a very narrow focus on one part of the electorate, she is know to be quite conservative (including on wanting to conserve flat rock gully) and a significant portion of the state electorate corresponds with Bradfield, where they don’t have a federal IND MP for Ms Penn to align herself with.
    46% of the voters went Labor or Greens in the Senate last year across Willoughby – if they all either voted for their preferred progressive candidate and then preferenced the other next, seats around where you live would be considered marginal and next time might be won by someone that aligns with your views.

  31. is clements hgoing to come back to a labor role wouldnt be suprised if secord is helping with media maters and stratigy

  32. I was in Sydney City last two days for a work function. I never got out of the CBD. It was near a pre-poll booth.

    In that time in the city I saw lots of Labor and Green signs and a supporters handing out pamphlets and HTVs. I haven’t seen a single Liberal. Pleasant trip actually 😉

  33. its probaly better if labor voters vote for the party in stead of voting for an independent labor won the seat in 1978 and 1981 and labor is current federaly holds howards old seat

  34. Yes, it’s not particularly outrageous to say that Drummoyne has the potential for a large swing to the ALP. On federal voting numbers, it would be an ALP seat. It’s been an ALP seat in the past and there’s no sitting member. I would say a 14% swing is unlikely, but definitely not impossible.

  35. Natalie Ward from the Liberal Party, speaking from Mosman to Afternoon Briefing, says that voters have been telling her that they’re concerned about the cost of living. In Mosman. :/

  36. I haven’t watched much of the NSW election coverage, how confident are we feeling? It seems like “not as confident as we were in Andrews, maybe a touch more confident than we were in Albo?”.

  37. @Cat,
    The Hedonic treadmill means that people complaining about cost of living in Mosman doesn’t surprise me. People only care that it’s harder to maintain whatever lifestyle they’ve grown used to.

  38. Perrottett was handing out HTVs in Willoughby today, Tim James must be in some political trouble.
    Minns did News Breakfast and Kyle/Jackie O on radio, then he went to Sydney Fish Markets, Ryde and later Parramatta.

  41. @Socrates:

    “I was in Sydney City last two days for a work function. I never got out of the CBD. It was near a pre-poll booth.

    In that time in the city I saw lots of Labor and Green signs and a supporters handing out pamphlets and HTVs. I haven’t seen a single Liberal. Pleasant trip actually ”

    _________

    Sounds like you were down at my end of town, Socrates. You should let me know, we could have caught up for coffee. Who knows, I could have even introduced you to Jamie. Or failing that, Arthur Moses who I also chatted to the other day. …

  44. Bramston should stick to writing mediocre books about the ALP rather than making electoral predictions he’s going to recant.

  48. Re High Street @3:45 PM.

    Since the end of WW1, Willoughby has been held by Labor for a single (3-year) term following the 1978 “Wranslide” when the Labor 2PP was over 60%. Other than that it’s been solidly Liberal apart from a couple of independents (before 1978): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Willoughby

    No one accords Labor a realistic chance of winning this time. There will be no “Minnslide”. I decided that the best that I could do would be to see if I could help eject the sitting Liberal Tim James, a member of the Liberal Right faction. I voted for the best result that I thought possible rather than my preferred result. Reducing the Coalition count by 1, replacing a Tory with a Green-tinged independent, will make it easier for Labor and harder for the Tories to form Government.

  50. Socrates says:
    Friday, March 24, 2023 at 3:56 pm
    I was in Sydney City last two days for a work function. I never got out of the CBD. It was near a pre-poll booth.

    In that time in the city I saw lots of Labor and Green signs and a supporters handing out pamphlets and HTVs. I haven’t seen a single Liberal. Pleasant trip actually
    —————————-

    In Victoria the liberals have almost all died of old age. Those that remain are RWNJs.

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