Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)

A bit more detail than usual from Roy Morgan this week, plus a small-sample Ipsos poll suggesting Indigeous Australians are overwhelmingly on board with the voice to parliament.

I note that the front page of the Roy Morgan website has some detail on the federal voting intention numbers in which its weekly update video typically provides on the two-party preferred, though I’m not sure if this is new or unusual. The latest result has Labor leading 57-43, in from 59-41 last week; the primary votes are Labor 37.5%, Coalition 33.5%, Greens 11.5% and others 17.5%; and the field work dates were January 23 to 29. However, no detail on sample size or survey method is provided.

Other than that, an Ipsos poll of 300 Indigenous Australians released by pro-Indigenous voice group Uluru Dialogue last week found 80% support for the proposal, including 57% who were very sure and 21% who were fairly sure, with only 10% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

912 comments on “Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)”

Comments Page 3 of 19
1 2 3 4 19
  1. Whether or not S3 is retained is really irrelevant.

    It’s not at all difficult to work out ways to tax higher income earners outside of the income tax system.

    Targeting tax avoidance would be a great start, and would very likely raise more money than repealing the S3 tax cuts anyway.

    Those of those banging on about them are showing a lack of imagination.

  2. “nath says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:13 am
    Alpo says:

    Now, S-3 will be only effective for one year, the last year of the current ALP government term
    _______
    Even prominent stooges such as AE believe that is ridiculous.”

    Only ignorant Liberal party stooges would invent a future that does not exist but in their feverish imagination, whilst ignoring the present that does exist… You only have the present to work with, my dear little Liberal party stooge and the present is that Stage-3 will be applied for one year. The future will be decided in 2025…. with a vote!

    Comprende?

  3. “ It’s not at all difficult to work out ways to tax higher income earners outside of the income tax system.”

    Well, Labor could curtail negative gearing …

    … if Bill Shorten’s scars have healed.

  4. “zoomstersays:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:26 am
    Whether or not S3 is retained is really irrelevant.

    It’s not at all difficult to work out ways to tax higher income earners outside of the income tax system.

    Targeting tax avoidance would be a great start, and would very likely raise more money than repealing the S3 tax cuts anyway.

    Those of those banging on about them are showing a lack of imagination.”

    And that’s exactly what the ALP promised during the recent election campaign: Target taxation of multinationals, etc.

    But Stage-3 is something that could be the target of a rethinking at the next federal election. A flat/flattish tax rate is an IPA-Neoliberal ideal, not an ALP-Social Democratic ideal. Hence the ALP is likely to offer a new taxation system to the voters to decide about, that’s closer to their ideals, as Albo originally offered to ScuMo (= pass stages 1 and 2, but leave stage 3 until after the election).

  5. zoomster @ #102 Saturday, February 4th, 2023 – 11:26 am

    Whether or not S3 is retained is really irrelevant.

    It’s not at all difficult to work out ways to tax higher income earners outside of the income tax system.

    Targeting tax avoidance would be a great start, and would very likely raise more money than repealing the S3 tax cuts anyway.

    That’s just a partisan motherhood statement, but nowhere near as intellectually offensive as some of the Alpo guff.

    S3 has a considerable negative impact on the budgets forward estimates but there’s still time to change/scrap it before it takes effect, which makes it most relevant at this time..

  6. The lazy one liner bait layers are out and about today.

    Today’s specials:

    S3, the Fossil Cartel and Labor leadershit.

    The point of hooking posters?

    Getting them to talk about Labor bad.

  7. The crucial aspect when considering changes to S3, is that Labor has a compliant senate, so the timing is right to right this wrong.

  8. Medicare reform is off to a promising start. Now comes the hard part, says the Grattan Institute.
    _____________________
    “Biggest reform in 40 years”
    But we just haven’t figured out what to do at this stage.

  9. “Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:35 am

    …That’s just a partisan motherhood statement, but nowhere near as intellectually offensive as some of the Alpo guff.”

    It’s always a good idea to stay out of a conversation when you lack the intellectual capacity to make a rational contribution…. Please do follow my advice!

    Oh, and what about this naive (stupid?) comment of yours: “S3 has a considerable negative impact on the budgets forward estimates but there’s still time to change/scrap it before it takes effect”… So, you can’t wait for the Dutton-Murdoch-Costello “AlboLIAR” campaign eh?… You are truly foaming to give some desperate help to the sinking Coalition… Sorry mate, it won’t work!… We got rid of the Neoliberal Coalition in 2022, and are in no rush to get them back any time soon… The job of re-designing Australia has only just started…. 🙂

  10. wranslide says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 9:07 am
    The voice referendum is very much an individual decision to be made at the ballot box. I am surprised that many on here seem to think that a Greens position will be decisive or to be frank all that important?
    ————————————-
    The Greens position will play an important role because of its strong support amongst the under 30s that otherwise might not follow politics closely and there is an assumption that Victoria and NSW will vote yes but if the Greens join the Nats in openly opposing it then that yes becomes line ball and will come down to ALP and Liberal voters and if the Greens come out against it then it could be the Green’s Meg Lees GST moment.

  11. “Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:40 am
    The crucial aspect when considering changes to S3, is that Labor has a compliant senate, so the timing is right to right this wrong.”

    For the Nth time: If Labor LIES by rescinding S3 now, they won’t be in government on election night 2025. One year of S3 is nothing compared with a new program and three more years of ALP government starting in 2025. After that, Social Democratic reforms will be consolidated and who knows what’s going to happen next… The People will tell us, with their vote.

  12. Alpo says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:46 am

    For the Nth time…’
    …Integrity has laid the S3 bait and you have snapped it up.

  13. “Boerwarsays:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:38 am
    The lazy one liner bait layers are out and about today.

    Today’s specials:

    S3, the Fossil Cartel and Labor leadershit.

    The point of hooking posters?

    Getting them to talk about Labor bad.”

    Well….. Yes, you are perfectly correct, Boerwar!… 🙂

  14. Mostly Interested @ #110 Saturday, February 4th, 2023 – 11:41 am

    A great listen in today’s Guardian Australia politics podcast. An hour of our PM.

    Of note from minute 28 Albo talks extensively about the Voice referendum. He addresses the parliamentary process and timeline, PDs position, Senator Thorpe’s position, and that this is not about ceding sovereignty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world

    Perhaps if the referendum question were something like…

    Should a sovereign First Nations Voice to the Crowns Parliament be included in the Crown constitution ?

    I’d like to see the more important treaty process hopefully result in some traditional first nations be recognised as sovereign nations and be able to self-rule and trade.

  15. Mostly Interested @ #111 Saturday, February 4th, 2023 – 10:41 am

    A great listen in today’s Guardian Australia politics podcast. An hour of our PM.

    Of note from minute 28 Albo talks extensively about the Voice referendum. He addresses the parliamentary process and timeline, PDs position, Senator Thorpe’s position, and that this is not about ceding sovereignty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world

    Tah.

  16. “– Education: “Jason Clare was appointed Minister for Education. On 17 June 2022, Clare confirmed that the Albanese government intends to make changes which give schools a choice of whether to hire a religious or secular pastoral care worker through the National School Chaplaincy Programme.
    Clare announced an Australian Universities Accord with the terms of reference covering funding, affordability, employment conditions for staff and how universities and TAFEs can work together. The Accord’s final report is due to be handed down in December 2023.””

    So a couple of things these desperate and condescending lists of greatness, are not the compelling works of genius those who use them think they are.

    Just one example I’ve chosen, education.

    Let’s workshop education. Now there are some here who are teachers / education experts and I’m not so they can almost certainly help this but just a few of the major problems in Australian education:

    * teachers pay and conditions.
    * disparity between private and public schools and the risk of entrenched class and poverty because the first couple of steps in the ‘ladder of opportunity’ for those from less wealthy households are just missing and for wealthy households those first steps come with a couple of swimming pools an orchestra pit, and a butler to carry you up the first few steps, in very large part taxpayer funded.
    * commodification of the university sector including massive fees that are again a disincentive particularly to the less wealthy, and in the case of the ideological Morrison attack on the arts a serious disincentive for even well of middle class students. I know one person who did not do honors in English language because it was mind-blowingly expensive. They could have reversed the Morrison ideological attack on the arts in the mini-budget, a lot of the rest definitely fit into the long play category, but I want some evidence the long play has started and the cut and paste of press releases without thought is not that.

    And what are they tackling, oh chaplains, lets get rid of them, it isn’t like we are funding catholic and other religious schools with serious issues for the students, lets tackle the chaplains problem.

  17. “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:48 am
    Alpo says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:46 am

    For the Nth time…’
    …Integrity has laid the S3 bait and you have snapped it up.”

    Well….. No, on some crucial issues it’s important to repeat the principles and facts, even if that’s done again and again. Don’t forget that your opponents would love you to get tired and just give up, so that they are left in command of the narrative. You may transform the “bait” into an “opportunity” according to the way in which you respond to the provocation…. 🙂

  18. Ven

    I am not implying anything. You are coming to that conclusion. It is fact that Pyramid scheme he ran contained only members who were Jewish.

    ________________________________

    Ven, if you are going to double down on a comment, please educate yourself:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_investors_in_Bernard_L._Madoff_Investment_Securities

    Anti-semitism and all other forms of racism (and even the mentality that gave rise to robodebt) thrive when people spread rumours, anecdotes (usually third party) and outright lies without confirming the truth of them. It gets worse when they double down when, instead of fact-checking their claims and innuendos, they double down with more falsehoods.

  19. “Perhaps if the referendum question were something like…

    Should a sovereign First Nations Voice to the Crowns Parliament be included in the Crown constitution ?”

    Perhaps you could take that to the Referendum Working Group! If the Crown’s Senator Thorpe allows you to speak to them, that is.

  20. WWP: “Let’s workshop education.”

    What’s the point of workshopping anything with the greens? That’s what the Uluru Conference was about, wasn’t it? Bring the FN people together to find a way forward, which led to the drafting of the Uluru Statement.

    That Thorpe walked out on? That the greens now oppose? Workshops only work when the people who attend do so in good faith. That’s something the greens don’t seem to be able to demonstrate, least of all to the most marginialized.

  21. “WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:51 am

    teachers pay and conditions.
    disparity between private and public schools and the risk of entrenched class and poverty
    commodification of the university sector including massive fees that are again a disincentive particularly to the less wealth…”

    Are you telling me that you don’t believe that, in spite of my list, the ALP haven’t done enough in their first 8 months in government? That they should have done much, much more?…. You are kidding me, right?

    But in any event, which party would have solved all those problems you list and, presumably many, very many more, in those 8 months?…. Dare to suggest one party?… I will be waiting for your reply with great interest.

  22. ‘Alpo says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:52 am

    “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:48 am
    Alpo says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:46 am

    For the Nth time…’
    …Integrity has laid the S3 bait and you have snapped it up.”

    Well….. No, on some crucial issues it’s important to repeat the principles and facts, even if that’s done again and again. Don’t forget that your opponents would love you to get tired and just give up, so that they are left in command of the narrative. You may transform the “bait” into an “opportunity” according to the way in which you respond to the provocation…. ‘
    ==================================
    They bait; you bite; they bait again; you bite again and it is deja vue all over again.

    The point of baiting is never to explore or to resolve the substance. It is to bait the agenda.

  23. zoomster @ #102 Saturday, February 4th, 2023 – 11:26 am

    Whether or not S3 is retained is really irrelevant.

    It’s not at all difficult to work out ways to tax higher income earners outside of the income tax system.

    Targeting tax avoidance would be a great start, and would very likely raise more money than repealing the S3 tax cuts anyway.
    ________
    Let us know when the Labor government is going to do that. They will have my full support.

  24. Rex have you checked the first nations group for the area where you live?
    You might want to do some research on
    whether using terms like the Crowns Parliament and the Crown constitution make any sense in Australia.

  25. Rex

    Should a sovereign First Nations Voice to the Crowns Parliament be included in the Crown constitution ?

    ______________________________

    Lydia Thorpe stands for and is elected to a Parliament created by the Crown Constitution and collects big money as a result, while betraying her electors. She’s a hypocrite, egotist and shameless self-promoter.

    Other indigenous opponents of the voice from the left are not and I understand where they come from.

    And Rex, as an example of the lived experience of indigenous women try reading this:

    https://www.uqp.com.au/books/tell-me-again

    I would not be surprised if Amy Thunig (who has not come out with a position as far as I know) does oppose the voice (although I hope she supports it). But this sovereignty stuff is just theoretical bullshit. Let’s get something real happen instead of getting caught up in nonsense.

    For others:

    I would thoroughly recommend Dr Amy Thunig’s book “Tell Me Again” for an astonishing and frightening insight into growing up aboriginal in a dysfunctional family and the level of casual racism that imbues everything.

  26. Pi says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 12:01 pm

    nath: “They will have my full support.”

    No they won’t.
    __________
    Sure they will. I support a lot of things this government has done, the voice, the cultural/arts policy. I’m actually fairly optimistic about this government.

    Of course that doesn’t mean I’m a stooge and swallow everything. I still have concerns about s3 and the jobactive system. I’m hoping the budget will fix some of those concerns.

  27. Oh, btw – I just got a scam email — addressed to ‘pollbluger’

    (It’s very urgent, therefore we kindly ask you to forward this email to your CEO. If you believe this has been sent to you in error, please ignore it. Thanks)
    Dear CEO,
    This email is from China domain name registration center. We received an application from Hongjia Ltd on February 4, 2023. They want to register “pollbludger” as their internet keyword and China (CN) domain names (pollbludger.cn, pollbludger.com.cn, pollbludger.net.cn, pollbludger.org.cn). But after checking it, we find this name conflict with your company name or trademark. In order to deal with this matter better, it’s necessary to send email to you and confirm whether this company is your distributor in China?

  28. I suspect the fundamental problem with education is we try too hard to cram everything in when we really should keep it simple because schooling should be the foundation for a healthy society and lifelong leaning. The ability to read and write with a good understanding of healthy lifestyle choices and financial literacy and history shouldn’t be too difficult.

  29. “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:59 am

    They bait; you bite; they bait again; you bite again and it is deja vue all over again.

    The point of baiting is never to explore or to resolve the substance. It is to bait the agenda…”

    Ok, I will also “bait” this one. As I wrote, Boerwar, it’s the way in which you respond to the provocation that matters. Now, what’s the point of doing that? Of course, the point is not to convince the Liberal stormtrooper that you are right, that will never ever happen in a million years. The point is to give sound arguments that smash the crap of the idiot in the eyes of uncommitted readers, readers who are still undecided, those who hang in the balance, the self-confessed “centrists”, etc. My posts are directed to those readers even more so than to the readers who are already fully committed with their political views. Those readers are usually silent: read but do not post.

  30. I would thoroughly recommend Dr Amy Thunig’s book “Tell Me Again” for an astonishing and frightening insight into growing up aboriginal in a dysfunctional family and the level of casual racism that imbues everything.
    https://www.uqp.com.au/books/tell-me-again

    Thanks. I’ve placed a hold for it at my local library. (It seems to be very popular.)

  31. Torchbearer says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:24 am
    Q: I didn’t know Zelensky is Jewish till now.

    Yes, Putin believes a Jew has created a neo-Nazi State……..make sense of that!!!
    ________________________________________________________
    The “sense” of it is that being against Nazism is not necessarily to be against anti-semitism. Russians and other east Europeans, including Poles and Ukrainians on some past occasions, hate the Nazis with good reason because they remember how they invaded their countries and laid waste to them.
    However, that did not mean they cared what the Nazis did to the Jews, nor did it stop some of them from irrationally believing that the Jews, who they blamed for everything anyway, were somehow responsible for Nazism too.
    Some of the Russian fascists supporting Putin are also anti-Nazi, but not because the Nazis were fascists and certainly not because they were anti-semitic.

  32. “Are you telling me that you don’t believe that, in spite of my list, the ALP haven’t done enough in their first 8 months in government? That they should have done much, much more?…. You are kidding me, right?”

    Your list isn’t the work of compelling genius you think it is and I both acknowledged the long term challenge reality and pointed out in the education press release cut and paste the issue boldly being tackled isn’t even fringe it is immaterial and a little fatuous.

    I’ll give you the Govt is definitely putting out a lot of press releases and doing a lot of good one off things for example discontinuing the prosecution of a single whistleblower while continuing Porter’s work on the others.

    i give up you don’t seem to actually respond to what I’m saying

  33. “I’d like to see the more important treaty process hopefully result in some traditional first nations be recognised as sovereign nations and be able to self-rule and trade.”

    That Rex, is because you are an idiot.

    Remember the kerfuffle when Voice first came up and morons like Barnyard were claiming it was another House of Parliament??

    You really want to throw self rule and trade powers into the “debate”?? Hey, lets canvas a scenario of an FN group exercising their “sovereignty” to do a deal with our Chinese mates for building a port facility and “helping out” with its security requirements shall we??

    Maybe we are all better off looking to do what is achievable for everyone.

    Statements like “sovereign nations and be able to self-rule and trade” are made by people who simply want the status quo to continue and oft have vested interests in being part of an ongoing protest, rather than any positive change.

    Or idiots.

  34. The Voice is a proposal by liberals for liberals. Labor and the Greens are both liberal parities. However the Greens also contain a few radical elements and they are in a tough spot with Thorpe, because now their liberal need to get on board with the “reconciliation” agenda is in conflict with their need to respect the FN representation that actually exists inside their party.

    Radicals like Thorpe are not “stupid” like people here seem to think, they just do not share the liberal worldview and the priorities that are generally taken for granted here. That is, they don’t view the Constitution as something redeemable, and they don’t believe that 50%+1 support on the part of a settler colonial population legitimizes anything. Based on this they simply don’t assign similar importance to a process of trying to persuade this settler population to amend their colonial constitution. They look at white Australia from the perspective that the Jews may have looked at Nazi Germany; the notion of “reconciliation” with the populations that it attempted to exterminate being essentially preposterous so long as there is a constitutional continuity with the Nazi regime. Thorpe is looking the white liberals in the eye and telling them they won’t get off the hook that easily, even with bogeyman Dutton playing the bad cop in whitey’s good-cop / bad-cop routine.

  35. “WWP: “you don’t seem to actually respond to what I’m saying”

    pot. kettle. black.”

    Fair cop in your case, I can’t work out if you are satire or actually serious but in any case I regret in each instance of actually reading what I don’t respond to.

  36. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 11:41 am
    Medicare reform is off to a promising start. Now comes the hard part, says the Grattan Institute.
    _____________________
    “Biggest reform in 40 years”
    But we just haven’t figured out what to do at this stage.

    _________________________________________________________
    Reforming Medicare will be a huge challenge; that’s why it’s good that the party which introduced the system is the one now in government facing this challenge.
    Imagine what the Libs, who once promised to demolish Medicare, would try to do if they were still in office.

  37. imacca: “made by people who simply want the status quo to continue and oft have vested interests in being part of an ongoing protest”

    The problem for the greens is that they are seen that way now, and in increasing numbers by their own ‘supporters’, which is why they have a burning desire to deflect and dissemble. Talk about everything except their opposition to the voice, because that means they have to defend a party position that is at odds with 80-90% of their supporters, and the same proportion of FN people, the people they’re supposedly wanting to speak on behalf of.

Comments Page 3 of 19
1 2 3 4 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *