Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)

A bit more detail than usual from Roy Morgan this week, plus a small-sample Ipsos poll suggesting Indigeous Australians are overwhelmingly on board with the voice to parliament.

I note that the front page of the Roy Morgan website has some detail on the federal voting intention numbers in which its weekly update video typically provides on the two-party preferred, though I’m not sure if this is new or unusual. The latest result has Labor leading 57-43, in from 59-41 last week; the primary votes are Labor 37.5%, Coalition 33.5%, Greens 11.5% and others 17.5%; and the field work dates were January 23 to 29. However, no detail on sample size or survey method is provided.

Other than that, an Ipsos poll of 300 Indigenous Australians released by pro-Indigenous voice group Uluru Dialogue last week found 80% support for the proposal, including 57% who were very sure and 21% who were fairly sure, with only 10% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

912 comments on “Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)”

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  1. “7. Whether that is, in your view, ‘a good thing’ is neither here nor there. Given your comments, this is probably fortunate for the people of Alice.”

    So in what circumstances to your mind, is stripping away human rights a ‘good thing’ given you object to me thinking it is a bad thing?

    And the personal abuse in the second half of your ‘point’ 7, in lieu of a contribution of substance, was very on brand for you.

    You were the one that put just taking away human rights in a cut and paste list of ‘ achievements’ not me.

  2. “Sprocket, Frank has passed away.

    I saw a message to that affect on the Member for Swan Hills facebook page some time ago.

    In the day Frank used to come to Swan Hills branch meetings.

    RIP Frank I’ll toast you and your birthday with a fine’ish’ Swan Valley wine.

  3. zoomster @ #788 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 7:53 pm

    P1

    As I’ve said, I think the answer is irrelevant.

    Actually, you said both. But now you say it is irrelevant. Fine – one question answered.

    Your definition was that it was because most of the attacks happened under the auspices of the government.

    We both agree now that that isn’t true, so – using your definition – there was no war.

    Actually, it is true. Either directly or with the ‘tacit approval’ of government. As I pointed out already. So, you agree there was a war – another question answered.

    Not so hard, was it?

    Except now, of course, we have the situation where you seem to think a war against First Nation people is not relevant, which seems a little odd.

    Still, at least we have answers.

  4. “sprocket_says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 7:02 pm
    In the 1967 Referendum, 90% of Australians voted Yes.

    In 2023, I suspect the result will be similar – and only the ignorant racist sympathetics will vote No.

    As for the Murdoch organs fomenting dissent, they have no sway anymore in modern Australia.”

    Yep, as simple as that sprocket. The YES to the Voice may not win with a 90% perhaps, but it doesn’t need to do so. Anything above 50% will do, I would be thrilled with anything above 55%, ecstatic with anything above 60%, and exhilarating with anything above 65%…

  5. “P1

    I’m wholeheartedly supporting the Voice. I’m supporting Truth and Treaty.

    I think that that’s all that matters.

    As am I, of course.”

    For many posters here, and I definitely do NOT mean you zoom, but for many others, there seems to be some other things that matter much more than the successful Voice Truth and Treaty outcome.

  6. By god can we keep the execrable P1 and her relentless italics away from this blog?
    Every time I see her shape shifting, dullard stupidity on this blog, I die a thousand deaths.
    She is so stupid.

  7. Player One says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:25 pm
    nath @ #794 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 7:59 pm

    Yabba’s obsession with the scatological is easily seen in his writing.
    Indeed. And yabba’s anal obsession has echos in ALPo’s comments as well.

    Odd, isn’t it? Most people get over this fixation by the time they reach puberty. But then, perhaps that’s the answer.
    _____________________________
    yabba is the sort of older gent who is a worry to his family. You could picture him berating young shop assistants in Erina Fair over a perceived transgression.

  8. “Player One says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:25 pm
    nath @ #794 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 7:59 pm

    Yabba’s obsession with the scatological is easily seen in his writing.

    Indeed. And yabba’s anal obsession has echos in ALPo’s comments as well.

    Odd, isn’t it? Most people get over this fixation by the time they reach puberty. But then, perhaps that’s the answer.”

    Only someone known as Pooh1 could be obsessed with scatological issues, a clear indication of the kind of material they play with to construct their Neoliberal models for the country.

    You do wash your hands after a day work Pooh1, do you?

  9. “By god can we keep the execrable P1 and her relentless italics away from this blog?
    Every time I see her shape shifting, dullard stupidity on this blog, I die a thousand deaths.
    She is so stupid.’

    Does insulting other people help you feel better about yourself? Smarter? Superior? I don’t get it. You come to a place voluntarily, a place where you are not obliged to either read anything or make any contribution and spew this by choice? Stay classy.

  10. “Nice one wwp.
    I take it you worship on the altar of stupidity.
    And italics.’

    You can take whatever you like, but given you don’t know me and you do know you it is always going to reveal more about you than others you are trying to bully or belittle.

  11. C@tmomma @ #811 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 8:27 pm

    Lookout! Player One’s got a second wind. nath’s turned up. 😆

    How do you know, C@t? I am, thankfully, blissfully ignorant of their presence, apart from tangential comment. Repetitive banality and insincere gratuitous nastiness are not my bag (much).

    It is actually quite nice to know that they are spifflicating away and I am unaware, and couldn’t give a flying…

  12. Henry @ #812 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 8:28 pm

    By god can we keep the execrable P1 and her relentless italics away from this blog?
    Every time I see her shape shifting, dullard stupidity on this blog, I die a thousand deaths.
    She is so stupid.

    I’m sorry that you don’t like italics. It’s a bit of an odd objection, since quoting anybody automatically puts their posts into italics.

  13. “How do you know, C@t? I am, thankfully, blissfully ignorant of their presence, apart from tangential comment. Repetitive banality and insincere gratuitous nastiness are not my bag (much).

    It is actually quite nice to know that they are spifflicating away and I am unaware, and couldn’t give a flying…”

    Best double self own ever.

    A whole post about something you are pretending not to care about after a torrent of nasty personal abuse directed at just that target you don’t care at all about, and a reference to gratuitous nastiness, as if there had never been a moment of self reflection in your entire life.

    10/10, five stars, no notes.

  14. WeWantPaulsays:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:30 pm
    _____________________
    Good post that one.
    There is a few on here like that.

  15. “Sure thing WWP.
    English not your thing.
    Good luck with that.”

    It wasn’t actually. Probably mild undiagnosed dyslexia as it turns out over time, living in a house with multiple Arts, English Language and History degrees is a real trial. You could in the day do a Arts degree majoring in maths, but yet they neglected that fine opportunity.

  16. Apparently we have got nath, and his sniffer mate L’arse around as well. Around and around in ever decreasing circles. Insincerity squared. Does nath mean nose?

  17. I just love those posters here who loudly and often claim to have blocked you, but then clearly don’t have the strength of character to actually do so.

    Nor can they restrain their natural inclination to insult whenever they see something that triggers them. They have to find excuses to pretend they “accidentally” saw your posts so that they can legitimately post their snark.

    What an awful life such people must lead. I guess if they didn’t let their bile out, they would simply explode and kill innocent bystanders.

    So I guess PB is providing a public service. I hope they contribute to William’s running costs.

  18. Capitalism after the crises

    Apropos of Jim Chalmers Article in the Monthly have any of the last 6 Liberal treasures published an article to explain their thoughts or philosophy.. in fact have any of the last 6 treasures had a thought or have a philosophy?

    I assume not because it’s always easier to go with the orthodoxy & leave the situation unchallenged than to make the effort to look for a better way.

  19. “Again with the italics? Is it because they lean to the right?”

    What is it with the war against the old quote style I used to be able to do, but that I lost in a computer upgrade? Is it considered bad form now? It used to be the accepted norm here, I’ve always felt bad I never worked out how I used to do it.

  20. WeWantPaul @ #835 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 8:54 pm

    “Again with the italics? Is it because they lean to the right?”

    What is it with the war against the old quote style I used to be able to do, but that I lost in a computer upgrade? Is it considered bad form now? It used to be the accepted norm here, I’ve always felt bad I never worked out how I used to do it.

    It is probably the “C+ PB Comments” plugin that you lost. Look it up in your browser extensions.

    But then, you will be annoying Henry! 🙂

  21. No P1, you lean to the stupid.
    When everyone on this site thinks your a twit, does that give you cause to self reflection? Ie it might be you.

  22. “It is probably the “C+ PB Comments” plugin that you lost. Look it up in your browser extensions.”

    Thanks, I had an issue with an online job application / acceptable platform that had me nuke all the extensions and a lot of other things to try and make the platfor accessible / usable, so it was probably an own goal situation.

  23. sprocket and P1, thanks for attempting to answer the question (a rare thanks to P1 for anything but there you go).

    @sprocket: “Sadly, you, like most Australians have been living in ignorance of what was going on with regards massacres of indigenous people since Federation.”

    But no thanks for the talking down to me (something Yes campaigners in the Voice referendum will need to avoid too. Brandis has one of those irritating pieces in today’s Age where he has a lot of irrelevant partisan guff about Dutton, but also a genuine point about the way the Yes campaign needs to be run to work).

    I am certainly aware of the massacres. I read the Guardian, remember?

    I also, and this is going to blow your socks off, know about the Stolen Generation. (see, being talked down to is bloody annoying).

    I have no objection to researching and acknowledging history but the significance of “Truth” compared to the Voice or Treaty still escapes me since the two of you are just talking about stuff that is largely known and acknowledged. There’s nobody, nobody significant at least, running around denying that massacres happened.

    P1, surely whatever information still exists and remains to be discovered about that stuff can be accessed by researchers now and needs nothing new to bring it out?

    I’d appreciate if more light could be shed on this, I’m unwilling to just write off the concept on the efforts of two people especially when one is P1.

  24. Player One is a dolt. Sad that they have to keep proving it. Okay, for the slow learner, I am on a train, coming home from Canberra. I am on my phone. Phones do not have access to C+. So I am unable to block the execrable witterings of Player One. Get it?

  25. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:16 pm

    “7. Whether that is, in your view, ‘a good thing’ is neither here nor there. Given your comments, this is probably fortunate for the people of Alice.”

    So in what circumstances to your mind, is stripping away human rights a ‘good thing’ given you object to me thinking it is a bad thing?

    And the personal abuse in the second half of your ‘point’ 7, in lieu of a contribution of substance, was very on brand for you.

    You were the one that put just taking away human rights in a cut and paste list of ‘ achievements’ not me.’
    ————————
    Whose human rights have been stripped in Alice Springs?

  26. [“Whose human rights have been stripped in Alice Springs?”

    Any adult who can’t buy alcohol, that is available to other adults. They even tried in one place banning everyone, so I guess that wasn’t so much a human rights restriction as legal overreach, but turns out just banning things isn’t that effective. Who knew.

    [Late edit: I saw a headline about people rocking up to Mt Isa to be in a community where the right to buy alcohol wasn’t curtailed, which is hilarious because of course there has never ever being a measure in criminal justice that simply moved the problem. That certainly has never happened before, there certainly were not whole books and lectures about it in a criminology course, no sir ee bob it is a new thing]

  27. The biggest single problem that the ‘yes’ campaign has is that most Australians do not understand the role of Constitution in the legal and governmental structure and how it works.

    One thing that the supporters of ‘yes’, including the government, will need to do in the coming months is to educate the public as far as possible as to how a constitutional voice is an overarching enforceable right not a detailed blueprint. I’m sure they know this.

  28. Arky,
    Senator Pat Dodson spoke about the massacres yesterday at the Chifley conference. He said that some of the historical records had been erased but he was hopeful that the Truth Telling process would record them all for posterity again. He also said that without a positive result for the referendum it would never happen. Too many vested interests don’t want people to learn about it and would derail any attempts unless compelled to do so by laws passed through the parliament after a successful referendum creates the impetus.

  29. ” Too many vested interests don’t want people to learn about it and would derail any attempts unless compelled to do so by laws passed through the parliament after a successful referendum creates the impetus.”

    But and bear with me here, those many vested interests, presumably of wealth and influence are somehow going to be trapped by a yes referendum and a piece of legislation that the next govt they buy can amend or rescind?

  30. P1 is a fool and WWP is not far behind her.
    On the rare occasions when I check in here I inevitably see P1 and her endless shape shifting, obtuse, obscure, bloviating nonsense. Pls ignore her.

  31. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 9:14 pm

    “Whose human rights have been stripped in Alice Springs?”

    Any adult who can’t buy alcohol, that is available to other adults. They even tried in one place banning everyone, so I guess that wasn’t so much a human rights restriction as legal overreach, but turns out just banning things isn’t that effective. Who knew.’
    ————————————-

    1. The bans from the relevant outlets are on everyone. As for whether the bans were effective… the immediate consequence of these particular bans was an enormous drop in call outs for domestic violence, break and enters, car theft, assault and the like.
    2. I have lived on several dry communities. Everyone is dry.
    3. I have also lived in communities with alcohol regulation rules (so many beers a night, at the club). These rules applied to everyone.
    4. Each community will, under the NT regs, be able to determine its own alcohol regulations under the Act.
    5. They will doubtless take into account that murders, assaults, partner beatings, child neglect and the like disproportionately involve alcohol. That was certainly the case on ALL communities I lived in for over a decade. Let’s hope the communities deploy their intact human rights wisely.

  32. “One thing that the supporters of ‘yes’, including the government, will need to do in the coming months is to educate the public as far as possible as to how a constitutional voice is an overarching enforceable right not a detailed blueprint. I’m sure they know this.’

    this to me is the same problem, you have a reference in the constitution, presumably the words of which are defined before the vote, but it is so innocuous, lots of people who’ve consistently voted to torture and kill refugees are going to say, yeah yes, but then there is something real with teeth and not innocuous at all that is going to be in someway enforceable?

    Lets say the referendum is passed and I’m drafting the legislation.

    I fix in legislation that has a very broad democratic electoral mechanism, every member of the voice gets pay fixed to the scales of MPs / Ministers / Committee chairs, the legislation also gives them complete immunity for things said as a member of the voice, no defo, no other legal risks.

    In short I create the strongest and best resourced voice i can.

    If there are no details in the Constitution and lets assume I can’t fill the High Court with WWP fans who will just throw out any changes to my model, what is to stop the next LNP Govt destroying it?

    Is it just a momentum thing, like if people had just a couple more years to get used to Gillard’s carbon tax (her words) they’d have realised it was a good thing not a bad thing? Or is there something else going on here.

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