Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)

A bit more detail than usual from Roy Morgan this week, plus a small-sample Ipsos poll suggesting Indigeous Australians are overwhelmingly on board with the voice to parliament.

I note that the front page of the Roy Morgan website has some detail on the federal voting intention numbers in which its weekly update video typically provides on the two-party preferred, though I’m not sure if this is new or unusual. The latest result has Labor leading 57-43, in from 59-41 last week; the primary votes are Labor 37.5%, Coalition 33.5%, Greens 11.5% and others 17.5%; and the field work dates were January 23 to 29. However, no detail on sample size or survey method is provided.

Other than that, an Ipsos poll of 300 Indigenous Australians released by pro-Indigenous voice group Uluru Dialogue last week found 80% support for the proposal, including 57% who were very sure and 21% who were fairly sure, with only 10% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

912 comments on “Roy Morgan and Ipsos Indigenous voice poll (open thread)”

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  1. “1. The bans from the relevant outlets are on everyone. As for whether the bans were effective… the immediate consequence of these particular bans was an enormous drop in call outs for domestic violence, break and enters, car theft, assault and the like.”

    Yah, i saw an interview with a guy who is involved in Emergency Room in Alice Springs a couple of days ago. Seems he was quite surprised, and happy, at the precipitous drop in those problems within a few days of those bans coming back in. Which is good news for all the people who actually live there regardless of any philosophical discussion about human rights by people who dont.

    “Let’s hope the communities deploy their intact human rights wisely.”

    Given their lived experience i suspect most or all will exercise that kind of autonomy pretty well to their communities benefit .

  2. “Perhaps the people of Alice Springs should elect WWP as mayor.
    That should fix everything.”

    Everyone knows mayors have no power to fix anything.

    Look if I’d been Prime Minister with a loyal backbench for the last 30 years, it might be a different story. Or I am free to start now if you wish to arrange it.

    I’ve had a deal with a mate who is always complaining about both sides of politics and that is if he raises the army and takes over the country he can be a ceremonial President and I’ll run it for him as Prime Minister and Treasurer. Perhaps there can be two of you in on this fine joke of decades now.

  3. Voters back Labor as downturn looms: Newspoll

    Labor has a commanding electoral lead over the Liberal and Nationals parties, despite a fall in approval for Anthony Albanese and a lift in support over summer for fringe independents.

    ALP 38 L-NP 34 Green 11 ON 6 UAP 1 others 10
    55-45 2PP

  5. “Yah, i saw an interview with a guy who is involved in Emergency Room in Alice Springs a couple of days ago. Seems he was quite surprised, and happy, at the precipitous drop in those problems within a few days of those bans coming back in. Which is good news for all the people who actually live there regardless of any philosophical discussion about human rights by people who dont.”

    As I said above it can be a measure and it can be applied when needed, but it isn’t something to celebrate and it seems the people of Mt Isa are already finding out just how poor a solution it is.

  6. Leon,
    I am glad to see you posting here, hale and hearty, showing that the icepick attack in 1940 did not end your travails.

    But you do seem to have lost a bit of your fire. Rather than “Never peace, never war” (or WTTE), you seem to be now tucking in behind comrade Stalin Putin, in the hope that he can win an aggressive war against Ukraine.

    Presumably you hope for peace once comrade Putain Putin wins the war?

  7. Labor kicks off the parliamentary year with a commanding electoral lead over the Liberal and Nationals parties, despite a fall in approval for Anthony Albanese and a lift in support over summer for fringe independents.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor maintaining a 10-point ­margin over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, giving it political momentum ahead of an expected economic downturn this year.

    Both major parties have suffered minor falls in popular support since December, but well within the polling methodology’s margin of error.

    Labor dropped a point to 38 per cent, while the Coalition fell a point to 34 per cent.

    The two-party-preferred lead of 55/45 per cent that the government enjoyed heading into Christmas remains unchanged.

    The largest movement in support at a party level was a two-point rise for Independents and fringe minor parties – including the teal independents – to 10 per cent, which is consistent with the election result.

    Support for the Greens remained unchanged on 11 per cent while Pauline Hanson’s One ­Nation Party was also stable at 6 per cent. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has since been de-registered by the Australian Electoral Commission, remained on 1 per cent, after having secured 4 per cent of the vote at the election.

    The results mark the first Newspoll for 2023 and comes ahead of parliament’s return.

    The absence of any shift in the contest between the major parties comes despite Mr Albanese being forced to confront several challenges over the summer break.

    This includes an outbreak of ­violence in Alice Springs, threats of a gas shortage by mid-year being blamed on the government’s price cap and a stalled start to building the public ­campaign for a referendum on a constitutionally enshrined Voice to Parliament.

    The most significant movement in the Newspoll survey overall was a notable fall in Mr Albanese’s approval ratings.

    The Labor leader still enjoys ­record high approval ratings ­overall, which he has sustained since Labor won the election in May 2022.

    However, those satisfied with his performance fell five points to 57 per cent.

    Those dissatisfied with his ­performance rose four points to 33 per cent.

    Mr Albanese’s net approval ­ratings have fallen from plus 33 per cent in December to plus 24 per cent in the latest survey.

    Opposition Leader Peter ­Dutton’s approval ratings ­remained largely unchanged, with a 36 per cent approval rating and a 46 per cent disapproval ­rating – making a one point deterioration.

    His net approval ratings fell from negative 9 per cent to negative 10 per cent.

    In the head-to-head contest, however, Mr Dutton made ground on Mr Albanese lifting two points as preferred prime minister to 26 per cent while Mr Albanese dropped three points to 56 per cent.

    While lower than December last year, it still gives Mr Albanese a 30-point margin over his rival as the better prime minister and remains above the October ­result.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/albaneses-approval-dips-in-newspoll-but-labor-still-10-points-ahead-of-coalition/news-story/6965765eac6403eaf222beb75928ecda

  9. Albanese: Approve 57 (-5) Disapprove 33 (+4)

    Dutton basically unchanged.

    Albo risks being seen to talk about the voice 24/7 and not addressing the real issues. They have already done a lot and will do a lot more, but the public always wants solutions now. This govt, unlike the previous one, is conscious not to be rushed to bandaid policies for the sake of an announcement. Of course you can’t fix Medicare, inflation or a raft of issues overnight – that’s not always a popular message tho.

  10. “The largest movement in support at a party level was a two-point rise for Independents and fringe minor parties – including the teal independents – to 10 per cent, which is consistent with the election result.”

    Fringe semi nazi media personalites try to insult ‘Fringe independents’ who stormed the last election and took safe liberal seats.

  11. “Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 9:31 pm

    … ALP 38 L-NP 34 Green 11 ON 6 UAP 1 others 10
    55-45 2PP”

    Once upon a time the Coalition and their Media Mates could display a heavy artillery that actually worked: it did use real projectiles that hit the target.

    Now, it looks like they are using toy plastic cannons that fire little cottonwool balls…. My impression is that this is the result of that very well-known process of Voter De-Moronisation. It took three years of very hard work, but De-Moronising a majority of voters we did!

    Congratulations to all those who contributed and don’t forget: keep up the good job, this is far from over yet!

    🙂

  12. For a bit of fun I’ve started an exercise working out on the numbers where the Voice Yes vote will land by looking at the federal election HOR division results by each of their PV results and assigning a % figure. I’m also using the same sex plebiscite results by electorate just to overlay another indicator. Its a subjective, finger in the sky approach assigning a percentage. I’m interested to see what it comes out with. I’ve started with a wide range of results but I’ll run out of safe coalition seats well before Labor/Greens/Inner City Independent seats.

    It’s kind of funny for mine that the media types are yet to realise the motivation of those in the ‘Yes’ camp who are used to being involved political campaign. We are primed to roll up the sleeves and get out the message. I’m yet to be convinced the rabble that the current LNP campaign infrastructure has will be motivated to get out and door knock as much as the Yes group will be.

    I’m backing in a cakewalk. Dutton will be on board by mid year when he comes to the (already) obvious conclusion that he will again be on the wrong side of Indigenous reconciliation history. Which as an opposition leader would be way way way worse than being a shadow minister was.

    Once was ‘unfortunate’, twice would be terminal! He’ll have to back up the truck. I can’t wait for the “I’ve now been satisfied that this is a good thing. That’s all I ever wanted” press conference!

  13. Arky @ #840 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 9:07 pm

    P1, surely whatever information still exists and remains to be discovered about that stuff can be accessed by researchers now and needs nothing new to bring it out?

    I’d appreciate if more light could be shed on this, I’m unwilling to just write off the concept on the efforts of two people especially when one is P1.

    I’ll ignore the implicit insult, because you have apparently been listening to those here with a political agenda, without realizing it. Easy to do.

    This is a good introduction …

    https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/introduction.php

    It concludes …

    While some frontier massacres are well documented, many were covered up and seldom spoken of in the colonist community. Very few cases were brought to court and of these only one of them, Myall Creek in 1838, resulted in the conviction and hanging of some of the attackers. After that, the practice of frontier massacre became more difficult to detect and the details more difficult to interrogate. As research into frontier massacres continues, more information can improve our knowledge and understanding. The Colonial Frontier Massacres map and website has raised awareness and informed public debate on this controversial topic and the research team hope it will become a valuable research tool as we continue to learn more about Australia’s violent colonial frontier.

    But this article tells you more about what is left to do …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/17/the-map-of-australias-frontier-massacres-is-done-but-researchers-say-picture-remains-unfinished

    An eight-year long project to map the massacres of people on the Australian frontier is the “first sustained effort to break the code of silence” on the violence of colonisation, its lead researcher says, but the full story is yet to be told.

    The true picture may never be known because “the code of silence about massacres has been universal”, according to emeritus Prof Lyndall Ryan from the University of Newcastle’s frontier massacres research project.

    “[The map] is not definitive, because so many massacres were hidden and people have never talked about them, but this is the first time we have a national map that has a clear method of investigation,” Ryan says.

    “This is just what we’ve found so far. It’s a first serious look on a national scale, and I think it will just provide the opportunity for other researchers, whoever they might be, to look further.”

    A seasoned historian who has researched and written about the violent colonial history of Tasmania and Victoria, Ryan says she was “astonished” by the extent of frontier massacres across Australia.

    “I really did not expect to find the numbers that we have found. And we know that the numbers we have found are simply indicative, rather than definitive.”

    She says there are many other sites of conflict that are not on the map.

    “We’ve come across stories and incidents that have a lot of substance, but simply don’t meet the criteria at the moment.”

    When you look at the map itself, it is clear there are entire regions – perhaps with entire populations, now eradicated – left to be mapped.

  14. C@tmomma @ #841 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 9:10 pm

    Player One is a dolt. Sad that they have to keep proving it. Okay, for the slow learner, I am on a train, coming home from Canberra. I am on my phone. Phones do not have access to C+. So I am unable to block the execrable witterings of Player One. Get it?

    Odd just how often this kind of thing happens, eh C@t? What was your last laughable excuse … oh, yes … (chuckle!) …

  15. “hazza4257 says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 9:36 pm
    Albanese: Approve 57 (-5) Disapprove 33 (+4)

    Dutton basically unchanged.

    Albo risks being seen to talk about the voice 24/7 and not addressing the real issues. They have already done a lot and will do a lot more, but the public always wants solutions now. This govt, unlike the previous one, is conscious not to be rushed to bandaid policies for the sake of an announcement. Of course you can’t fix Medicare, inflation or a raft of issues overnight – that’s not always a popular message tho.”

    On the other hand, it is mainly people on the fringe of reality who demand it all and demand it now. Most Australians are down-to-earth pragmatists who know that change is not immediate. However, I do agree that they want to see change, real change, that is good for the People. This government is well aware of that and that’s exactly what they are delivering. Oh, and about the hysterical screeching over the Voice, that’s mainly the Coalition and their mates who are doing it, plus Thorpe on the side of the Greens. Albo and the ALP have been calm, systematic and progressive in their step-by-step advance toward the vote. Shortly, an official campaign of media information will start and then everybody will make up their mind, ready to vote.

  16. “ In the head-to-head contest, however, Mr Dutton made ground on Mr Albanese lifting two points as preferred prime minister to 26 per cent while Mr Albanese dropped three points to 56 per cent.

    While lower than December last year, it still gives Mr Albanese a 30-point margin over his rival as the better prime minister and remains above the October ­result.”
    ——————————————————————————————

    And it’s also part of the reason voters will support the Yes vote. No matter how much noise and commotion Dutton and the Murdochracy make, it’s Albanese that voters are actually listening to. It’s the message stoopid!

  17. This is looking like Albo’s second peak. The first was in October 2021 (when Labor’s opinion poll primary was about 37% in polls) after the Delta wave. This looks about the top of the second peak.

  21. “ParkySP says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 9:42 pm
    …Dutton will be on board by mid year when he comes to the (already) obvious conclusion that he will again be on the wrong side of Indigenous reconciliation history. Which as an opposition leader would be way way way worse than being a shadow minister was.”

    Good point!… And that could be the whole reason why Dutton has been dithering about the Voice: “To No or not to No that is the question… I need more information!”. Dutton’s existential indecision-cum-excuse is exactly due to his mortal fear of being seen as a massive loser at his very first significant test as a leader. Littleproud doesn’t care, given his conviction that the Nationals’ vote base is as solid as a rock. But the Liberals have been shaken to the core at the last federal election: they lost to the ALP, but they were also trashed by the Teals in several solid Liberal seats… and even the Greens snatched Liberal seats (in fact, I helped them with my second preference in my seat of Brisbane!).

    A little reminder to Dutton, just to “help” him at these times of great personal confusion: The ALP only needs a swing of about 4.5% to virtually obliterate the Coalition. The swing to the ALP at the 2022 federal election was 3.66%, in spite of a crossfire of fearmongering and anti-ALP propaganda coming from both the Coalition (& media mates) and the Greens (& media mates). Next time, the ALP will be able to defend themselves thanks to their achievements over 3 years of government…. It will be an entirely different ball game! …. 🙂

  22. Piss off, Player One. You obviously know nothing about phone versus computer functionality of C+.
    Must you keep demonstrating your ignorance to one and all?
    Oh, and you need to learn to express yourself succinctly and with originality, as I did about exactly the same subject you just googled.
    Don’t worry, I will be back home tomorrow and can go back to ignoring your needy posturing and attention-seeking behaviour again. 🙂

  23. Alpo,
    The only thing Dutton is waiting for is the tracking polls results that the Liberals will be doing before he finally decides to go ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ to the Voice.

  25. P1,

    Just a quick straight question: Will you vote Yes for the voice?

    I have not been able to glean how you will vote from your posts.

  26. Douglas and Milko says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:13 pm
    P1,

    Just a quick straight question: Will you vote Yes for the voice?

    I have not been able to glean how you will vote from your posts.

    ____________________________________

    P1 has stated they will vote yes.

  27. “Sceptic says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:52 pm
    Capitalism after the crises

    Apropos of Jim Chalmers Article in the Monthly have any of the last 6 Liberal treasures published an article to explain their thoughts or philosophy.. in fact have any of the last 6 treasures had a thought or have a philosophy?

    I assume not because it’s always easier to go with the orthodoxy & leave the situation unchallenged than to make the effort to look for a better way.”

    Interesting problematic Sceptic. In short YES, all those 6 Liberal treasurers did have a clear philosophy, it’s called Neoliberalism, which is very different from Chalmers’ (and the ALP) philosophy, which is Social Democracy. Neoliberalism has dominated not only economic but also social policies for quite a long time in Australia (with the exception of the 6 Rudd-Gillard years). But since about 2008 (GFC), the evil ideology has been falling apart. Paradoxically, though, the Coalition Neoliberals and their little stormtroopers in various think tanks and the internet, always put a lot of effort into avoiding talking about Neoliberalism (only Frydenbergh made the “mistake” of doing so once as treasurer, from memory). The idea is to introduce Neoliberal policies but treat them as “the natural”, “the obvious” way of doing things, rather than the product of a specific ideological choice. The trick did work for some time, but not anymore.

    Jim Chalmers’ article is a strong argument in favour of Social Democracy and against Neoliberalism.

  29. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/indigenous-voice-earns-support-of-quiet-majority-newspoll/news-story/112730f98673caf6b106ac3b52da70a2

    Indigenous voice earns support of quiet majority: Newspoll
    By SIMON BENSON and SARAH ISON
    10:10PM FEBRUARY 5, 2023

    A majority of Australians support changing the Constitution to enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament on the basis it would ensure Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people had a say in policies that affect them and mark a step forward in reconciliation.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian published as parliament returns on Monday for the first time this year, shows 56 per cent of voters were in favour of constitutional change for a voice to parliament, with 37 per cent saying they were against the proposal.

    Full chart here! > https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/67b5167d796233dbdd8d76c7fe62029e

  30. “Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 9:56 pm
    This is looking like Albo’s second peak. The first was in October 2021 (when Labor’s opinion poll primary was about 37% in polls) after the Delta wave. This looks about the top of the second peak.”

    Lars, keep waiting for that Albo/ALP trough… It will come on exactly the same day when the Denialists’ predicted Little Ice Age will start….
    Good luck!
    🙂

  31. “Leroy says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:24 pm”

    Oh no, the “quiet majority” is p…ing on Dutton’s and Littleproud’s hopes for a “No” victory….
    My dear Dutton, be careful, because you are indeed heading for a no victory, also known as a defeat!

  32. “Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:23 pm
    We are at Peak Albo 2.0!

    All down from here, apparently.

    Ain’t that right, L’arse?”

    C’mon Andrew, haven’t you read Pooh1’s sermon about not calling people names?
    Ha, ha, ha….

  34. ” 56 per cent of voters were in favour of constitutional change for a voice to parliament, with 37 per cent saying they were against the proposal”

    they are very positive numbers before either side has really started the sell,

  35. TPOF @ #876 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 10:16 pm

    Douglas and Milko says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:13 pm
    P1,

    Just a quick straight question: Will you vote Yes for the voice?

    I have not been able to glean how you will vote from your posts.

    ____________________________________

    P1 has stated they will vote yes.

    I have, in fact, stated it so many times now that anyone who professes still not to know is probably doing so to be deliberately obnoxious.

  36. A-e why dont you talk about subs with c@t?

    I am not an expert or claim to be one but:

    Seems like she read that one better than you?

  38. “WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    …they are very positive numbers before either side has really started the sell”

    So, the immediate decision of the Nationals to back the “No” option, plus the Liberals being skeptical about the information available (leading to the indirect conclusion that “if you are unsure, just vote No, for the status quo”), plus all the media scaremongering about the Voice, are not part of the “No” campaign?… Gees, I wonder what’s in store for the real “No” campaign then….

  39. “Player One says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:43 pm”

    Pooh1, I assure you that I am not personally interested in your anus. But for the sake of public health, please keep it clean! It’s not nice to read your posts smeared with all that crap.

  40. “We are at Peak Albo 2.0!

    All down from here, apparently.

    Ain’t that right, L’arse?”

    Seems unlikely, but we must be near to the point in the cycle where the bold progressive reform needs to be put aside for the small target strategy ready for the next election

  41. ”… in fact have any of the last 6 treasures had a thought or have a philosophy?”

    On the off-chance that any of the previous three did and were able to at least formulate them in a fashion coherent enough for a ghost writer, they would not have been written up in a lefty journal like The Monthly. The Daily or National Rupert would have taken care of it.

  42. Hazza4257

    “ Albanese: Approve 57 (-5) Disapprove 33 (+4)

    Dutton basically unchanged.”

    + Newspoll 55 -45 to Labor. What a lovely set of numbers to go to sleep on.

    Two thoughts on this poll. First, after more than six months in the top job, Albo’s numbers are not a “honeymoon”. They reflect voter satisfaction for an essentially decent man doing what he promised as PM. What a change that is!

    Second, the lack of any bounce for Dutton show little or no voter interest for him. Dutton is not new to Federal politics. There is not much upside for him to look forward to as voters “get to know him better”. They already know.

    Dutton’s recent stunts on turning a paedophile protector’s funeral into a national event, and opposing the Voice, shows he hasn’t got a new policy idea in his body. Its more of the negative, divisive, same. So why should he expect more votes?

    It will be interesting to see how much Perrottet invites Dutton to NSW for the State campaign. Not much I’ll bargain.

  43. Alpo @ #889 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 10:49 pm

    “Player One says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:43 pm”

    Pooh1, I assure you that I am not personally interested in your anus. But for the sake of public health, please keep it clean! It’s not nice to read your posts smeared with all that crap.

    This obsession of yours is becoming quite disturbing.

  44. God I cannot get home soon enough. The Player One inanity, it burns!

    But way to ignore the substance of my comment. It’s what you do when people have gotten you bang to rights. 😆

  48. “So, the immediate decision of the Nationals to back the “No” option, plus the Liberals being skeptical about the information available (leading to the indirect conclusion that “if you are unsure, just vote No, for the status quo”), plus all the media scaremongering about the Voice, are not part of the “No” campaign?… Gees, I wonder what’s in store for the real “No” campaign then….”

    Let’s just say other than here, and the headlines of Guardian articles I haven’t read my total interactions socially or in a work context about the voice total 1. I wonder if I asked at work how many even know there is a proposed referendum.

    Personally I’ve received one email, a list distribution email from Unions Australia, saying that voting yes and supporting the yes campaign might be a good idea.

    I’m relatively engaged but I don’t know the question nor the language we are going to be asked to put in our Constitution, do you think we might delete the reference to NZ and add in WA at the same time or might this be confusing?

    Are we going to just pop something unthreatening in the preamble, or are we going to make a constitutional body like the parliament or the high court?

    Are we going to add a Part VI to chapter one? I suspect no, but my point is the debate hasn’t started in much of the community.

  49. “Player One says:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:52 pm
    …. is becoming quite disturbing.”

    We have all realised that you are quite a disturbed person, Pooh1… Take care and see you at the new thread….
    🙂

  50. Almost home. Then I will finally be rid of the sad, pathetic individual who is the Neddy No Friends of PB. But whose neediness brings them back, day after day, anyway.

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