Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 35 36 37 38
  1. Merry Christmas to all bludgers! Thanks for the roundup BK. I hope you had a decent sleep 🙂

    It has been a rollercoaster year with a horrible war, so I thought we should celebrate the good things we got. Three wise men came from the east.

    The first came to the lodge bearing an honest government

    The second came to the Treasury bearing a fairer budget

    And the third came to the Senate bearing a passing vote for climate change, IR and Federal ICAC legislation.

  2. The Season of Goodwill

    An IPA, free market, the most effective form of regulation is self regulation so get out of the way government operative, newly elected to the Upper House of the Victorian parliament, is calling for Justice Reform so less people are jailed

    Referencing particularly drug and white collar crimes where people should be given a second chance instead of being sentenced to jail by a Court of Law

    White collar crimes?

    Please detail the white collar crimes where normally jail sentences would be applied but will no longer be applied

    No doubt underpaying employees will qualify for starters

    And this IPA Executive is joined in this call for reform by a recycled, failed former Federal MP

    Both male

    The gene pool of the Liberal Party is very, very shallow

    Noting the lady just elected to the Victorian Upper House who Guy said would not sit in the Party Room

    And that the now Kew MP is also from the IPA as is the recently elected now Leader of the Liberal Party

    Then the Nationals have a defection over not supporting the “Voice”

    How many Liberals will defect once Dutton opposes

    Reducing the Coalition numbers from currently 57 in a 151 Member Federal Lower House

    But our trusted media still promote them, affording the irrelevant their puff piece headlines and photo opportunities

    Merry Christmas!!!

    If you get caught drink driving tell them the IPA says there should be no penalty and you deserve a second chance (Tim Smith)

    In fact there should be no Police, so small government

  3. Have a great day Bludgers.

    Fondly remembering those like Lizzie and KayJay who have left us lesser, and those like Itza, who may yet grace us with their presence once again.

  4. Bah Humbug, to you all!

    I’m in Covid Iso!

    In an excellent representation of first world problems, I may have to delay my o/s summer holiday! Cofveve!

  5. A very Merry Xmas to you all and thanks for keeping this ducky entertained and informed.
    A special shout- out to the lurkers and I hope Itza is one of them.

  6. Sickened at this from the Russians:

    “ At least eight people are now said to have been killed in the Russian shelling of Kherson city.

    The office of the prosecutor general said that residential areas had been targeted. “As a result, at least eight civilians were killed,” a post on Telegram said.

    Yaroslav Yanushevich, governor of the region said 58 had been injured.

    “On a weekend, on the eve of Christmas, the Russians attacked the city center. They attacked the market, shopping center, residential buildings, administrative buildings – the places where the most people are,” he said.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/dec/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-us-calls-for-russian-troop-pullout-after-putin-acknowledges-war

  7. Happy Hogswatch Bludgers.
    We went and watched John Bell play Scrooge as Rupert last night. Very apposite – I suppose two 80+yo men in suits always look alike – but the resemblance was eerie, and Bell played it for all it was worth. Dickens was onto something.

  8. Good Morning Bludgers and Merry Christmas to you all.
    A relaxing start to the day cycling at first light and then an ocean swim @ Ocean Beach, of course.
    Today is Jimmy Buffett’s 76th birthday, so Julie & I will be celebrating by playing heaps of his music and drinking a few margheritas or three.,
    Keep safe, well & happy.

  9. Happy Saturnalia bludgers: although arguably that Roman festival traditionally ended a couple of days ago. On the other hand the festival is also associated with Dies Natalis Solis Invicta – the Birthday of the Unconquerable Sun – 25 December. The cult of Sol Invictus was very popular with large sections of the imperial Roman Army in the 3rd century CE, so linking it with a Christian festival – our xmas – was one way to ease pagans into the new state religion in the following century. So there is that.

    So, anyways, happy festivus everyone.

  10. sprocket_ @ #1749 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 7:21 am

    Interested in the economics of fossil fuels, renewable energy and the impact of global shocks? This thoughtful piece by Malcolm’s son Alex is very good…
    https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/facts-on-the-ground/

    Yes, good article. Here is the bottom line in one simple sentence:

    Climate campaigners aim for an end to fossil fuel extraction—the minimum requirement to reduce catastrophic and irreversible climatic harm.

    Sadly, while our political policy makers don’t really have a clue, you can bet your bottom dollar that there are those that do, or at least pretend they do – and it is those people that influence the real decision makers …

    Intelligence about the physical world of resources and commodities mostly comes from private consultancies with opaque methodologies, whose business model is to manufacture consent to drill more holes and agencies that, while ostensibly public, don’t reveal their model workings and assumptions.

    As usual, if you want to know what’s really going on, follow the money. In the absence of governments with backbone, figure out the scenario that will maximize revenue for the cartel, and you can be fairly confident that is how things will play out. If that involves another small war or two, then another small war or two we will have. If that involves the economies of a few countries going down the gurgler, then so sad, but too bad. If that involves some species going extinct, or some ecological niches being destroyed, then that’s just the cost of doing business. One hopes that those species and niches will not include us and ours … but miscalculations do happen.

  11. I think better when it’s quiet. Eyes closed. Feeling the air enter and leave. It’s a bit like Christmas can be. Peaceful. Thoughtful. A break in proceedings. A slow deep breath at the end of the year. (If you haven’t got family descending, that is. 😉)

    Happy celebrations PBers!

  12. A Very Merry Xmas to all!

    [‘Decriminalising Drugs Would Enable Police to Focus on Serious Crime.

    As anti-drug dog campaign Sniff Off posted an image of NSW police at Central Station in March 2019, it was clear that law enforcement were taking matters to an extreme, as not only were officers accompanied by dogs, but they were further equipped with screens to strip search civilians behind.

    Regardless of whether any transport user is carrying illegal drugs, getting a train home should not involve the potential of being ordered to strip down at the station, especially as the dogs get it wrong two-thirds of the time, and if they’re right, it usually involves a small quantity of cannabis.

    Over the last decade, the use of both drug dogs and strip searches have become a daily part of life in Sydney and across NSW, as the state continues to ignore the clear evidence that the zero-tolerance war on drugs approach to illicit substances compounds the harms associated with drugs.

    Yet, this could all be undone if the state decriminalised drugs. The change would see drug possession no longer being a criminal offence, and thereby end the need for sniffer dogs and strip searches.

    Seeing the personal use of drugs as a health issue rather than a criminal law problem would encourage users to get help, with the corresponding positive flow on effects to themselves, those close to them, the economy and indeed society generally; as it has done in nations such as Portugal.

    Safe drug use could also be promoted by allowing and even encouraging users to test their drugs through pill testing, potentially protecting them against the dangers of lethal additives.

    All of this would also free police resources, allowing law enforcement agents to focus on more serious crimes.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/decriminalising-drugs-would-enable-to-focus-on-serious-crime/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-53

    I recall the gormless Elliott saying that he would want police officers to search his own children if “they were at risk of doing something wrong”, following the strip search of 122 girls suspected of possessing drugs. A new paradigm’s needed, such as the one in place in Portugal.

  13. Thanks for working on a public holiday BK, triple time would be too little. The very best of the season to you , Sir!

    …and thanks for the link with this in it:

    “ We had great success with the ScoMo rebranding,” said Bobby-Brown. “So we are looking to replicate that strategy with Peter Dutton.”

    “Unfortunately, our first choice – ‘PeDo’ – did not score well with focus groups.”

  14. Hi Mavis

    I agree with your view on the search/dogs routine. It is suited to Xi’s China. Not to a democracy.

    I know advocates play with language but ‘Safe drug use…’ = ‘mitigated dangerous drug use’.

    Portugal looks like a mixed bag. I am not sure how rigorous the epidemiological studies have been.

    ttps://substanceabusepolicy.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13011-021-00394-7

    Would you legalize meth, etc?

    The Dutch policy seeks to minimize drug harm in two ways. It enables a market in soft drugs while trying to outlaw vigorously the more addictive and the more dangerous hard drugs. It follows this up with treating the bad consequences of drug use as a health issue. One large impact has been a huge reduction in the Dutch prison population.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_policy_of_the_Netherlands

  15. As mentioned above, a moment of respectful remembrance of Kayjay and Lizzie. And grateful thanks to all who grace these pages. Your contributions are gratefully heard. Dissent is good. Helps us rage against the daily outrages we hear of and appreciate the unmentioned manifold acts of kindness everywhere.

  16. Would you legalize meth, etc?

    No one wants to do that. No one is suggesting that. It’s a straw man of an argument. What you do is decriminalise possession of small amounts of drugs and offer a pathway of support away from their use. Treat it as a health issue if they are being abused. Offer Harm Minimisation strategies. Keep people both out of jail and away from a ladder up to more harmful drug use. Because you’re naïve if you think you can just say, ‘Drugs are bad, okay?’ or ‘Just say no’. Go after the multinational drug crime cartels. But know that young adults will experiment in the name of having fun. And no one has been able to stop that tendency in Primates yet. So you may as well get real about it.

  17. Merry Christmas all, I hope it’s a happy and safe and peaceful day for you and your families and loved ones.
    A big thanks to William, who moderates this sometimes crazy blog community well and fairly, and his election guides and coverage of various elections around the country are always comprehensive.
    BK, thank you for the daily summary of newspaper articles on politics and national affairs, invaluable!
    I know I don’t post here much, but I still lurk and enjoy reading all the comments and the cut & thrust of the various debates of the day.
    Here’s to hopefully a good 2023 for us all and for Australia in general, with a decent government in power in Canberra.
    A fantastic bunch of fellow political tragics in this group, for the Labor supporting lads especially – I’d love to have some quality beers with you blokes one day.

  18. C@tmomma, love you, you’re the heart and soul of the Bludger community.
    I saw people discussing Bushfire Bill yesterday, missing him a lot, he was always entertaining.

  19. rhwombat @ #1763 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 9:20 am

    Happy Hogswatch Bludgers.
    We went and watched John Bell play Scrooge as Rupert last night. Very apposite – I suppose two 80+yo men in suits always look alike – but the resemblance was eerie, and Bell played it for all it was worth. Dickens was onto something.

    John Bell has one of his house’s up the road and around the corner from me. He also has a city house to live in when he is acting in or producing a play. I once fed backyard chickens with his wife, Anna Volska. Sadly, just the other day I was told that foxes had dug under the chicken coop and killed and eaten all the chickens. 🙁

  20. Evan @ #1719 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 11:06 am

    C@tmomma, love you, you’re the heart and soul of the Bludger community.
    I saw people discussing Bushfire Bill yesterday, missing him a lot, he was always entertaining.

    Sheesh, Evan! 😳

    I try my best. I do get under our lord and master’s skin though. I walk a tightrope. 😉

    Can’t wait to meet you at the lunch in May!

  21. Boerwar:

    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 10:31 am

    [‘The Dutch policy seeks to minimize drug harm in two ways. It enables a market in soft drugs while trying to outlaw vigorously the more addictive and the more dangerous hard drugs. It follows this up with treating the bad consequences of drug use as a health issue.’]

    That seems a reasonable approach. I wouldn’t legalise drugs like
    meth, though users don’t really care if it’s proscribed. A drug conviction, even for pot, can make life hard. I think, like you, that addiction to drugs or alcohol should be treated as a health issue provided there is no accompanying offence(s). Certainly, the current policy on drugs is next to useless but it would take a brave pollie to alter the status quo. I’m off to enjoy(?) the Silly Season.

  22. Merry Christmas to all from the Land of Smiles. We took some friends out last night. Their first visit to Bangkok. I was amazed! The City was alive. Heaving with folk decked in Christmas gear. I’ve nver seen Thailand so “Christmasy”. The weather too is fantastic.

    Whilst COVID is still around, I got the feeling, especially with younger people, it’s time to live again. 80% masked but “The Big Mango” is back.

    Have wonderful day all. Thank you William and BK. Thank you each and everyone of you for friendship and thoughts. A truly eclectic bunch would be hard to match.

    Feliz Navidad.

  23. For those interested in Bushfire Bill, I can report that he is fit and well on the NSW mid north coast – indeed prospering!

    And still following events with his signature strong opinions.

  24. sprocket_
    Yes, BB contacted me yesterday after he ducked into the blog to see that Jasper has been put down. He seems to have taken to his new environment very nicely.

  25. Wong is probably my favourite politician. Wit, directness, experience, patience, confidence, focus, vision, humanity, … There’s a lot there.

    “Penny Wong is, in my view, the most dynamic, active and energetic foreign minister in the world today,” Evan Feigenbaum, a former senior US State Department official, said when introducing Wong for a speech at a Washington think tank this month.

    “When you’re a new government, people are interested in engaging,” she tells me. “I really wanted to leverage that for the country. I thought it’s important to use this time because you only get one chance to be the new foreign minister in a new government.”

    “I do feel quite strongly about this,” she says. “It probably derives from my political heritage, which is I’m a progressive, but I’m in the Labor Party. That means you have to have purpose and principle, but you also have to have pragmatism.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/asia/penny-wong-is-making-waves-despite-the-odd-wipeout-20221222-p5c8d9.html

  26. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 11:50 am
    A sobering 3 minute read for beach loving Aussies. Like so many things, we’re happily ignorant of how we’re destroying them.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/looking-up-the-key-to-understanding-australian-beaches-20221224-p5c8nj.html
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    That 1st picture ‘sunny day Dendy St Brighton’ is across the road from me.
    Doesn’t tell the whole story as today like most others will be unfortunately crowded with an additional 500+ dressed tourists (mostly Asian) basically getting in one’s way taking selfies.
    And Bayside Council (and mates) has finally got it’s way and is building ‘a world class tourist facility’ (their description) to cater for many more.
    Locals like me long for the old days. Summer of 42?

  27. Dr J. I trust that’s an old movie reference. Either way, those beaches are as faded as their memory. As a little guy I remember climbing dune after dune wondering where the beach was.

  28. China will no longer publicise COVID infections, hospitalisations or deaths.

    Their daily briefing today says

    “From now on, daily epidemic information will no longer be released, and relevant epidemic information will be released by the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for reference and research.”

  29. Upnorth @ #1734 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 12:45 pm

    China will no longer publicise COVID infections, hospitalisations or deaths.

    Their daily briefing today says

    “From now on, daily epidemic information will no longer be released, and relevant epidemic information will be released by the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for reference and research.”

    That bad, huh?

  30. Penny Wong is terrific, best Foreign Minister in ages.
    Says a lot about the character of Albanese that he is again spending Christmas helping out at the Exodus lunch in Sydney.

  31. BK and Sprocket,

    Thanks for the Bushfire Bill updates… i used to amuse my friends with copies of BB’s rants and they’ve been asking why I’ve stopped. (Naughty, I know..should have asked his permission!)
    Those of you who have met him, is he as obnoxious as some seem to think?
    I regret not going to the lunch in Sydney that he organised.
    Seeing bludgers in person gives a much fairer idea.
    Besides, someone who loves animals as much as he did can’t be all bad?

  32. BW and C@t

    Very bad. Every contact I have on the Mainland is either infected or family is. Over 250 million infections probably in China at this moment and Spring Festival coming up will introduce infections into the rural areas.

    I do love China. The majority of Chinese people are warm and friendly. I have relatives there and we lived and worked there. The people are scared and feel abandoned. Xi will not be remembered fondly as history writes its lessons.

    China does this to itself every few generations. I think its the inherent failure of Confucianism – a cult that Xi has used for his own gain. No questioning of authority in the family or the state. The old “open” China I knew (in the 90’s and early 2000’s it was vibrant and alive) is gone – but it will be back.

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 35 36 37 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *