Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 35 of 38
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  2. Upnorth says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 7:51 pm
    In the spirit of giving, all Poll Bludgers win todays’ prize. BK of course gets his usual (that’s two again for you BK). Love youse all!
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Hang on you previously referenced making a book on the outright winner.
    I backed C@tmomma anyway no protest from me given Xmas.

    Here she is the greatest even in defeat however –
    https://youtu.be/XYgL97H04T4

  3. My EVs top up at night via my 2 x 18kwh batteries….easy peasy….rarely touch that grid stuff. …Mine are also programmed to discharge at the optimum time

  7. ”
    Bystandersays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:53 pm
    I think Ven has said it best so far so I’m going to pinch his words:

    To WB and all the Labor, Liberal, National, Greens and Independent and Ukraine posters and lurkers of PB, On the eve of Christmas
    Merry Christmas and Happy New year to you and your families.

    Remember Ven, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
    ”

    Bystander
    Thanks for your greetings and flattery.

  13. With special thanks to BK for his excellent daily wrap. And to William for creating and maintaining this space, putting up with us and, of course,
    constructing the psephological resource that underpins our blather.

  20. Nice hearing from Bludgers celebrating Xmas overseas at the moment.

    Listening to Handel’s Messiah at the moment, always great mood music.

  21. BTW, did I mention that I visited Stonehenge yesterday. It was windy and very cold. Because it located in plains, the chill factor was accentuated.

  23. Upnorth @ Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 7:51 pm

    In the spirit of giving, all Poll Bludgers win todays’ prize. BK of course gets his usual (that’s two again for you BK). Love youse all!

    Cheers, Upnorth! I gave a special nod to BK earlier, but now you get one too! Also best wishes of the season to the estimable WB, without whom this blog would not exist.

  25. Ven says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8:58 pm
    BTW, did I mention that I visited Stonehenge yesterday. It was windy and very cold. Because it located in plains, the chill factor was accentuated.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    And very large gaps between the stones for memory. Hope you’re enjoying the trip.

  26. Cronussays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 9:15 pm
    Ven says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8:58 pm
    BTW, did I mention that I visited Stonehenge yesterday. It was windy and very cold. Because it located in plains, the chill factor was accentuated.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    And very large gaps between the stones for memory….

    ++++++++++++++++++++
    Especially when Brian Jones and Mick Jagger fell out.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:29 pm
    An interesting think piece on what will happen if Scotland gains Independence from the UK:

    https://youtu.be/ph5H0YFxbJI
    __________________________________________________________
    A most interesting link C@tmomma. However, I think some of the narrator’s assumptions about what an independent Scotland would mean have to be questioned.
    Scotland would still largely have the same foreign policy interests that the rest of Britain, even if reduced to England and Wales, would have. Scotland would want to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible; why would it not want to remain in NATO? If necessary, Scotland could probably be fast-tracked into NATO, much as Sweden and Finland recently were.
    This is because Scotland would probably not want to see a reinvigorated Russia in Europe either, so would it really be in a hurry to kick out the RAF and British navy?
    Scotland may or may not secede from the United Kingdom, but changes in geopolitics cannot change the facts of geography, which history tells us, is the greatest determinant of countries’ national interests.

  29. Winter storm brings power outages, flight cancellations, rapid temperature drops around the U.S.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/23/2143457/-Winter-storm-brings-power-outages-flight-cancellations-rapid-temperature-drops-around-the-U-S

    Just in time for Christmas travel, the nation has been hit with widespread extreme weather, and extreme really is the right word. Power outages are common across the country thanks to high winds, hitting Kentucky, Ohio, Georgia, Oregon, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Texas, and more. More than 3,200 flights have been cancelled on Friday, following 2,700 cancellations on Thursday.

  32. Ven at 8.58 pm

    Yes, Ven, it must have been an enervating experience. It’s not just the plains, it’s the lack of trees that contributed to your feeling of being frozen. For some archaeology see:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/new-light-on-stonehenge-11706891/

    See also: https://www.historicalclimatology.com/features/-climate-crisis-and-causality-at-the-end-of-the-bronze-age

    ‘For example, while surveying 250,000 years of climate history, historian John Brooke of Ohio State University argues in an ambitious new book that the onset of a “cold, dry climate has to be a fundamental explanation of the demise of the Bronze Age of the greater Mediterranean.’ (Brooke, Climate Change and the Course of Global History, 2014)

    See also: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8faa/pdf

    You were caught in a cold and dry climate temporarily; imagine living in it for decades.

  34. Merry Christmas to all Bludgers & William

    Thanks for the informed (and not so informed posts). You guys sustained lurkers like moi during the dark ATM regime. We have a decent government, a Labor Government!!!

    Ps Are lurkers also invited to the PB May 2023 Bash?


  36. Sceptic says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 3:26 pm

    Pi says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    So if the EVs are on the road during the day ( which is the reason for their purchase) they would have reduced capacity in the evening & would be plugged into the grid to recharge… so how do they act as storage capacity?

    I play in this space and I am with you, use of cars to backup the network, not going to happen. Being able to control the charge is critical,being able to discharge the battery, seems like a good idea, but no so much.
    1) The voltage drop requirements for generation is more onerous than for load. Want to do this for every car charger. Don’t think so.

    2) You need to know more about the car use before you go discharging the battery. A user is not going
    to be impressed if the car is flat.

    But lets say we overcome these issues…

    Car batteries are from about 24 kWh TO 100kWh. Lets assume a typical days usage is 20kWh.
    Different cars have different ranges, something I think you should look at.

    https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/energy-consumption-electric-car

    Lets assume an average of 0.2kWh/kM that is a 100kM daily commute, which is fair.

    If you put in a 20 amp single phase circuit,that is 4.6KW, run it for an hour you top up you battery by 4.6KW ( ignore losses) so to get the 20kWh you have to charge for 20/4.6 = 4.3 hours.

    The peak load is tea time, putting off charging to bed time is not a problem as your car will be recharged in the morning.

    You have about 6 hours to do the job that takes 4.3 hours, yes you have a little margin.

    15 min charge times , 15 min for 20kWh. You have to charge at 80KW. That is 80000/400*sqrt(3) = 115 amps. We are talking a serious three phase circuit. Will only be available at service stations, and no-one will be hanging around so discharge is not going to happen. Service station battery installs to balance out the load, yes that might happen.

    Industrial sites will be installing 30KW systems. Typical commute of 20kWh, one hour charging will get you done. Perhaps, discharge the battery before the sun comes up. A bit of a problem if the car is not there.


  37. None of Your Beeswax says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8:07 pm

    My EVs top up at night via my 2 x 18kwh batteries….easy peasy….rarely touch that grid stuff. …Mine are also programmed to discharge at the optimum time

    I assume you mean your 2*18KW stationary batteries charged during the day by your solar system.
    That makes a lot of sense.

  38. vote1julia @ #1734 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 10:56 pm

    Merry Christmas to all Bludgers & William

    Thanks for the informed (and not so informed posts). You guys sustained lurkers like moi during the dark ATM regime. We have a decent government, a Labor Government!!!

    Ps Are lurkers also invited to the PB May 2023 Bash?

    We’d be honoured to have you come along in May, Vote1Julia!

  40. Michael Idato says it very well:

    As the new year approaches, the fact that we’re still here, and able to find the joy in the chaos, is a gift in itself.

    Tread gently in the world around you. Be thankful, and be grateful. Stop talking and listen. To Christmas carols. And to the world passing by. Enjoy the small things. Watch A Charlie Brown Christmas. And don’t forget those who are alone, or without family; at this time of the year the pain of loneliness cuts deepest.

    And most of all, don’t lose your Christmas spirit. Too sentimental for you? Then listen to the science. A University of Denmark study conducted in 2015 concluded that the sensory motor cortex and parietal lobule – the parts of the human brain associated with spirituality, somatic senses, and recognition of facial emotion – responded to Christmas-related images.

    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/the-best-christmas-present-you-can-give-yourself-is-to-be-kind-for-you-survived-20221223-p5c8gf.html

    🙂

  41. frednk, perhaps you should read what I actually wrote. I specifically referred to fleet managed utility vehicles, and all you talked about was public commuters and service stations.

  44. Well, I’m going to follow the science today and try and not to get into any arguments :

    And most of all, don’t lose your Christmas spirit. Too sentimental for you? Then listen to the science. A University of Denmark study conducted in 2015 concluded that the sensory motor cortex and parietal lobule – the parts of the human brain associated with spirituality, somatic senses, and recognition of facial emotion – responded to Christmas-related images.

    Tomorrow is Boxing Day, so that’s different! 😀

  45. In two weeks, the biggest annual human migration on Earth will begin for the Lunar New Year, lasting about 40 days. Travel platforms such as Qunar.com have predicted a surge in trips throughout China that could reach 80 per cent of pre-Covid levels.

    But as hundreds of millions of people prepare for a long-awaited return home, worries are growing that the waves of Covid-19 infections sweeping China’s big cities will overwhelm smaller urbans centres and rural areas. In these areas, health systems tend to be more fragile, leaving many more people vulnerable to the dire consequences of mass infections.
    Rural health systems will confront an “extraordinarily severe” situation during the holiday because they are weak, and many elderly people have underlying diseases, according to a document circulating online and quoting National Health Commission chief Ma Xiaowei. The document, said to be a memo of an NHC meeting on Wednesday, could not be independently verified.

    Beijing has urged rural hospitals to set up more fever clinics and coordinate medical resources to prevent and prepare for the expected waves of infections in the countryside, according to a guideline released earlier this month.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3204451/covid-rages-rural-china-ready-biggest-travel-surge-years?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

  46. There’s also this:

    Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton confirmed on Friday that the state’s latest wave was being driven by multiple immunity-dodging Omicron offshoots most notably the recombinant strain XBF, which now makes up almost a third of wastewater detections.

    “The genomic outlook is rapidly changing and is difficult to predict with evidence of newer sub-variants, in particular XBF, outcompeting other sub-variants over several weeks,” Sutton said. “This has contributed to a rise in hospitalisations, putting continued demand on the health system.”

    Omicron sub-variants BQ.1/BQ.1.1 are also circulating widely, making up 18 per cent of the state’s wastewater detections, while BA.2.75 and its sub-lineages account for a little over one in five wastewater samples. Another group of variants, which cannot be classified due to new mutations, make up 21 per cent of detections.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/post-christmas-covid-wave-looms-as-some-get-infected-for-a-fifth-time-20221222-p5c86j.html

  47. Good morning all and a Very Merry Christmas to Dawn Patrollers, Bludgers and families!

    Peter Dutton lets Christmas take a back seat to bad news in Yuletide address as Anthony Albanese expresses ‘gratitude’, writes Amy Remeikis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/24/peter-dutton-uses-christmas-message-to-highlight-difficult-year-for-australians
    Stephen Loosley has written a very good review of Niki Savva’s new book, “Bulldozed”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/arts/review/bulldozed-review-not-even-divine-intervention-could-save-scott-morrison/news-story/e45e3c52e1e034498fbfe9418a29322c
    It’s beginning to look a lot like rictus – for Dutton’s Coalition, writes Dave Donovan who looks at what the key figures in the Federal Coalition are doing over their well-deserved festive break..
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/its-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-rictus–for-duttons-coalition,17094
    Josh Frydenberg as treasurer and Scott Morrison as secret treasurer made a motza for foreign vulture funds in last year’s takeover boom and mega-sell-off of Australian assets. Who knew what when, and why are we flogging essential monopoly services to cuff-linked tax crooks? Callum Foote and Michael West report.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/josh-frydenberg-goldman-sachs-scott-morrison-firb-origin-energy/
    Matt Oliver tells us how Xi’s COVID failure has put the global economy at risk. Yesterday, Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Economics, predicted that the country won’t start to make significant progress reopening until the April-June quarter of 2023.
    https://www.afr.com/world/asia/how-xi-s-covid-failure-has-put-the-global-economy-at-risk-20221224-p5c8n1
    Half a million people a day are being infected with Covid-19 in a single Chinese city, a senior health official has said, in a rare and quickly censored acknowledgment that the country’s wave of infections is not being reflected in official statistics.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/24/chinese-city-seeing-half-a-million-covid-cases-a-day-local-health-chief
    The AFR’s James Thomson lays out the good, bad and ugly of business in 2022.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/the-good-bad-and-ugly-of-business-in-2022-20221219-p5c7ft
    Dear old Gerard Henderson is cock-a-hoop over ACMA’s ruling on the 4 Corners program about Fox News. What a miserable being!
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/four-corners-oneway-approach-to-criticism/news-story/6eaf3d993a84c36b181c9d9c64d9254c
    Sumeyya Ilanbey reports that one of two new Liberal MPs backing “radical” reforms to Victoria’s criminal justice system says the community “should seek out the good” in people, as the Andrews government comes under pressure to act on a major law and order overhaul.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/new-liberal-mps-urge-different-approach-to-reform-victoria-s-criminal-justice-system-20221223-p5c8ke.html
    Whether it’s family conflict, the cost of living or just the need for a break after an exhausting year, many people are intentionally opting out of Christmas this year, writes Rachael Dexter.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-just-don-t-feel-like-it-the-victorians-opting-out-of-christmas-stress-20221224-p5c8no.html
    Most of the US was grappling with heavy snow and temperatures that dipped as low as minus 45C in some places yesterday, hampering holiday plans for hundreds of thousands of people. A huge storm, described by meteorologists as a once-in-40-years event, brought freezing temperatures to the entire country and power cuts were reported in several states.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/nation-shivers-at-45c-as-bomb-cyclone-drops/news-story/bd64ed0d2d2617478dc6822b93f217cc
    Trump, Bankman-Fried and Musk are the monsters of American capitalism, declares Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/24/trump-bankman-fried-and-musk-are-the-monsters-of-american-capitalism
    Is Elon Musk going to turn into the same sort of joke that Trump has become, wonders Arwa Mahdawi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/24/is-elon-musk-going-to-turn-into-the-same-sort-of-joke-that-trump-has-become

  48. Merry Xmas BK! And thank you for all that you do. 🙂

    Here’s a particularly SA greeting for you. It’s sourced from The Royal Adelaide Hospital Research Fund:

  49. Interested in the economics of fossil fuels, renewable energy and the impact of global shocks? This thoughtful piece by Malcolm’s son Alex is very good…

    Energy prices going to the moon are a problem, and we need to decarbonize while some fossil fuel extraction continues. The dilemma is how to navigate these tensions while transitioning a system that was already lacking in information in its previous state. Relying on opaque and volatile commodity markets is one thing; relying on those markets while they enter a messy twilight accompanied by geopolitical instability and climate impacts is entirely another.

    To understand how fossil fuel commodities may become expensive, abundant, or inaccessible due to geopolitics, energy policies, climate impacts, and technology requires a granular view. Which assets are likeliest to be stranded? If we need new investment, where exactly is it required? Without this kind of detail, the simplistic global demand models used by policymakers, capital allocators, and influential experts will not be able to grapple with an emerging multipolarity, breakdowns in trading relationships, and climate shocks.

    https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/facts-on-the-ground/

  50. ‘Terrified’ Trump is quickly headed down the path to becoming ‘irrelevant and a loser’: former GOP adviser

    During an appearance on MSNBC with host Alex Witt, former GOP campaign adviser Tara Setmayer was asked about a major deep dive by Intelligencer’s Olivia Nuzzi that revealed that Donald Trump is wasting his days at Mar-a-Lago and doing nothing to enhance his 2024 presidential election chances.

    “He’s afraid of being a loser, afraid of being irrelevant, he has now become a shut-in retiree down in Florida who has to create spectacles to stay relevant like the asinine digital NFT cards that he put out. Is this is a serious person? No,” she added. “It is somebody who’s crying out desperately for attention. Unfortunately, with someone as dangerous as Donald Trump and someone as irrational as him and someone as vicious and malignant and narcissistic like him, he is very dangerous still.”

    Adding, “There’s no telling what he will do, she continued, “He does not care about the Republican Party or the state of the country, he will burn it to the ground first if that is what it means, if that is what it takes for him to stay in the headlines.”

    “Anyone who knows Donald Trump, anyone who has followed him, or written biographies or read them, knows that being irrelevant and a loser is his biggest fear in life and he is headed down that path quickly,” she concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-loser-2659009942/

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