Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Best Christmas present is the Albanese ALP government. It is especially gratifying that this time around the ALP did not need a Messiah figure to beat the usual LNP do nothing log PM. The media railed against Albo to no avail which means Murdochcracy has lost its clout – another Christmas wish granted !!! Happy Xmas everybody!

  2. Pi says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    So if the EVs are on the road during the day ( which is the reason for their purchase) they would have reduced capacity in the evening & would be plugged into the grid to recharge… so how do they act as storage capacity?

  8. At a Xmas function today, and talking to a young Chinese academic.

    Asked about her view on Covid in China; she said talking to her friends in Shanghai, about 50% of them have Covid. And the older people are mostly unvaccinated, and there will be a high mortality rate. Many, including her parents, are laying low, not going out at all.

    And what do her friends think of Xi Jinping? A very negative stream of consciousness was the answer. ‘Old crazy man’ sticks in my mind.

  9. Dog’s Brunch says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 3:07 pm
    Xmas greetings from Hokkaido .Serious snow here and the lights in Sapporo are magnificent

    Xmas greetings from warm and sunny Canberra.

    I’ve seen images of the spectacular ice sculptures in Sapporo but perhaps it’s not cold enough yet to construct them. My daughter and I visited Sapporo in Autumn 13 years ago (she had a uni exchange in Japan). It’s no wonder that Hokkaido is one of Japan’s busiest domestic tourist destinations with wide open spaces and so different to most of the country. It seems that sheep properties are a popular attraction.

  10. Sceptic: “So if the EVs are on the road during the day ( which is the reason for their purchase) they would have reduced capacity in the evening & would be plugged into the grid to recharge… so how do they act as storage capacity?”

    I don’t want to alarm you, but not all fleet utility vehicles on the east coast of Australia is on the road between 3pm and 4pm, nor do they all wind up with 0% charge at 6pm. These cars charge to 80% in 15m, and are continually charged throughout the day.

  12. My undying gratitude goes to Paul Eriksen, Tim Gartrell and Anthony Albanese for devising the antidote which broke the spell.

    Its been well documented Tim Gartrell was the brains behinds the Kevin 07 campaign. Funny enough it went all in heap for Labor when Gartrell left for opportunities in the private sector during Kevin Rudd’s first term.

    Paul Eriksen probably was less proven but served under Noah Carroll as assistant secretary. He took over as national secretary as Carroll was made to walk the plank after the shock 2019 loss. I don’t know too much about him but he seemed to hold it together well judging by the campaign and the result. He made the decision for Labor to go all in with resources for the seat of Higgins at the last federal election when there was a view the resources could have better been spent elsewhere.

  13. Thank you Cat, this site and all of you participants got me through the election. There were some hairy moments but we kept the faith that a truly rotten government with no ideas to speak of would most certainly be consigned to history. Even a pile of partisan journos couldn’t save their bacon. Thanks to all on here and PB himself and especially BK for his daily wraps where his succinct comments are often more enlightening than the stories themselves. Sad to hear of your loss of Jasper, every dog lover understands. Merry Xmas!!! Here’s to a terrific 2023 where peace and love wins the day.

  15. Princeplanet,
    Thanks. 🙂 I try to brighten people’s days at this time of year because it’s a very lonely time for a lot of people and you never know who they are. They may just be lurkers but they may like what I do. 🙂

  17. Now I’m going to inject a cautionary tale into proceedings, to remind everyone of what we could have been on the path towards if the Coalition had won the federal election, because there’s not more than a cigarette paper’s worth of difference between them and the Republicans. This is a very perceptive piece by Frank Bruni:

    The Florida governor is all about revenge, which means he’s utterly of his time

    By Frank Bruni

    When you picture Ron DeSantis, is he smiling or glowering? Telling you about some new project he’ll bring to life or some group of people he’ll bring to their knees? Sowing inspiration or vowing retribution?

    I’m guessing he’s the seething protagonist of a revenge thriller.

    That’s precisely the starring role he wants.

    Here’s DeSantis as he tortures Disney for daring to disagree with his pet education law — he’s a Republican contract killer coming for Mickey Mouse. Here he is punishing and publicly shaming a Tampa-area prosecutor who doesn’t share his restrictive views on abortion. And here he is insisting that a grand jury in Florida investigate Pfizer and Moderna for allegedly exaggerating the efficacy of Covid vaccines.

    His big set piece is a sadistic game with migrants, whom he relocates from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard not to benefit them but to bedevil his Democratic adversaries. And his vow to make Florida “where woke goes to die”? Woke isn’t meeting any natural end in the Sunshine State. It’s crossing paths with an assassin.

    The Florida governor and Republican supernova models a version of politics not as messy theater for problem solving but as spiteful arena for retaliation, in which you’re defined by your enemies — or, rather, by how effectively you torment them.

    An arena like the House of Representatives in the new year, when Republicans assume control of the chamber. How soon will they come for Hunter Biden? Anthony Fauci? Alejandro Mayorkas? They’re itching to impeach anyone who sits still long enough to be impeached. They’re bent on humiliation.

    That approach isn’t new, nor is it confined to one party. It’s what has turned Supreme Court confirmation hearings into such splenetic spectacles, with senators scoring the most points by exhibiting the most disdain for nominees and making them squirm most visibly.

    But Donald Trump raised it several nasty notches during and after his 2016 presidential campaign, when he beamed as his Hillary-hating supporters chanted, “Lock her up!” He understood that in an era of such intense negative partisanship, with so many people voting against the other team, grudges were gold.

    “He enjoyed some of his success by being viciously retaliatory,” James Kimmel Jr., a lecturer in psychiatry at the Yale University School of Medicine, said when we spoke recently. “That has worked for him, at least in outward-seeming ways.” It carried him to “the highest pulpit that the country has available,” Kimmel noted, and other people — including other politicians — extract lessons from that.

    DeSantis did. That’s obvious in his public remarks, like the ones he made in Pennsylvania on behalf of Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of the state, before the midterms. Gabriel Sherman described the scene in a profile of DeSantis in Vanity Fair:

    ‘He offered cursory praise for Mastriano and then uncorked a grievance-fueled stump speech that sounded like it had been written by A.I. plugged into Fox News. In DeSantis’s telling, the honest people of Florida were besieged by a vast array of liberal scourges: Big Tech, I.R.S. agents, George Soros, the Biden administration, the corporate media, illegal immigrants, Anthony Fauci, police defunders, Disney, China, communism, cancel culture, critical race theory, and woke gender ideology. Only Ron DeSantis was brave enough to confront these malign forces.’

    The cynicism and nihilism stoked by rants like that get the country nowhere, and the supremacy of revenge as a political tactic allows politicians who are receiving legitimate scrutiny — as Trump is for his tax returns — to explain it away as reflexive payback. If everyone’s perceived as indiscriminately vengeful, no investigation has merit and no investigator is on the side of the angels.

    That suits DeSantis. He’s a self-styled terminator and, silly me, I thought real leaders were supposed to be germinators. But that’s not the temper of these times. DeSantis has sized them up accurately. And shrunk himself accordingly.

  18. Socrates, Earlwood and other Armchair Admirals

    Does anyone know about the minehunting/minesweeping capability of the Arafuras (or indeed the oceanographic role, for that matter)

    Can’t see corvettes (which I’d support) in the minehunting/minesweeping role…

  19. Lars

    To be fair nath, there are a lot of contenders for biggest partisan twit. I feel there should be two categories:

    Biggest Partisan Twit (stooge category)
    Biggest Partisan Twit ( cynical category)

    I insist on a pedant category – else the competition is rigged!

  21. Bag for your buck in Ukraine…apologies if already posted, this popped up on Twitter this am.

    “ Altogether, the Biden administration received Congressional approval for $40bn in aid for Ukraine for 2022 and has requested an additional $37.7bn for 2022. More than half of this aid has been earmarked for defense. 

    These sums pale into insignificance when set against a total US defense budget of $715bn for 2022. The assistance represents 5.6% of total US defense spending. But Russia is a primary adversary of the US, a top tier rival not too far behind China, its number one strategic challenger. In cold, geopolitical terms, this war provides a prime opportunity for the US to erode and degrade Russia’s conventional defense capability, with no boots on the ground and little risk to US lives. ”

    https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

  23. PhoenixRed

    All the best for xmas to you and yours.

    Predictions of what to expect are taking a heck of a lot longer than I anticipated. Lol!

    Im hoping that the wheels of justice move more quickly in 2023.

  25. Merry Christmas, and thanks for all the great work, to BK. So sorry to hear about Jasper; we lost our good boy earlier this year so I feel your loss.

    Seasons Greetings to all other Bludgers too. I’m not going to name my favourites, although I do have them. I’ve been playing catch up with PB most of the week, due to other commitments, and so I haven’t responded to certain comments since my replies would have been a day or two past their use-by-date. I will be around during the Festive Period though.

  26. To WB and all the Labor, Liberal, National, Greens and Independent and Ukraine posters and lurkers of PB, On the eve of Christmas
    Merry Christmas and Happy New year to you and your families.

  27. ”
    BKsays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 11:04 am
    Pope Francis has warned Vatican bureaucrats to beware the devil that lurks among them, saying it is an “elegant demon” that works in people who have a rigid, holier-than-thou way of living the Catholic faith. Apparently the demon does not make a loud entrance, but comes with flowers in his hand,
    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-warns-vatican-staff-elegant-demon-lurks-95747896
    I cannot bring myself to make a temperate comment.
    ”

    No truer words and sentiment for people of faith.

    In Hinduism it is called Maya.

  29. The Ghost of Christmas Present:

    “… in his first message as opposition leader, Peter Dutton lets Christmas take a back seat to the pandemic, cost of living, data hacks, floods and the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

    “He doesn’t get to Christmas until the eighth paragraph of an 11-paragraph address.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/24/peter-dutton-uses-christmas-message-to-highlight-difficult-year-for-australians

  30. “Im going to make a prediction about De Santis. ”
    He is eventually going to crash and burn…

    every politician does in the end….Hawke, Keating, Howard, Churchill, Thatcher….and yes, Albanese will have his day of reckoning some time…(but may it be …many election cycles in the future)

  31. None of Your Beeswax @ #1680 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 4:55 pm

    “Im going to make a prediction about De Santis. ”
    He is eventually going to crash and burn…

    every politician does in the end….Hawke, Keating, Howard, Churchill, Thatcher….and yes, Albanese will have his day of reckoning some time…(but may it be …many election cycles in the future)

    I think he is just going to fizzle out. He is as outrageous as Trump is his views but he doesn’t have the decades of myth making behind him that Trump did. He simply will never get the same grip o the public imagination as Trump.

    Outside Florida he will eventually just fade away.

  32. E. G. Theodore says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 4:38 pm

    Biggest Partisan Twit (stooge category)
    Biggest Partisan Twit ( cynical category)

    I insist on a pedant category – else the competition is rigged!
    ________________
    there’s no doubt you are the Bryan Grenfell to my Aiken Drum.

  33. While I’m here a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all those who post positive things on these pages and to William for keeping it going. For those who seem to come here only to sledge, I trust you will use the turning of the year to reexamine your life and join the positive project which Australia has once again become (apart from Covid precautions where I’m on the same page as Boer War).

  37. Macarthur says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:41 pm
    Cronus @ Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:20 pm:
    “ And talking about out of touch………”
    ====================

    Cronus, this I truly do not get. Is there some constituency or market out there for outrage against help for potential victims of suicide? In our context, for example, are there actually people who get offended by the messages to call Lifeline and so on, at the end of stories with potentially triggering content?
    ——————————————————————————————-

    It’s fair to say that Musk is no exponent of sympathy, he really just doesn’t seem to grasp the concept.

  40. nath says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:12 pm
    E. G. Theodore says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 4:38 pm

    Biggest Partisan Twit (stooge category)
    Biggest Partisan Twit ( cynical category)

    I insist on a pedant category – else the competition is rigged!
    ________________
    there’s no doubt you are the Bryan Grenfell to my Aiken Drum.
    中华人民共和国
    I wouldn’t mind being a runner in all three.

    “ I hate the indifferent. I believe that living means taking sides. Those who really live cannot help being a citizen and a partisan. Indifference and apathy are parasitism, perversion, not life. That is why I hate the indifferent.”

    Gramsci.

  42. I think Ven has said it best so far so I’m going to pinch his words:

    To WB and all the Labor, Liberal, National, Greens and Independent and Ukraine posters and lurkers of PB, On the eve of Christmas
    Merry Christmas and Happy New year to you and your families.

    Remember Ven, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

  43. Pi says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:33 pm

    Aiken Drum had charm dude. That rules you out.
    ___________
    I’ve got charm coming out of every orifice.

  44. E.G.Theodore

    “ Does anyone know about the minehunting/minesweeping capability of the Arafuras (or indeed the oceanographic role, for that matter)”

    AFAIK the Arafuras as built and launched have no inherent minehunting / minesweeping capability. Happy to be proven wrong but I’ve not seen anything.

    The original OPV concept was that the ships would swap out container sized mission modules that would each contain the kit needed for a mission. This approach was very successfully used in the Danish Ivor Hutfeld class.

    But the container sized mission modules have never been designed or built to my knowledge, so the usefulness of the Arafuras has been Morrisoned.

    Most NATO navies are moving towards using USVs (drones) to do minesweeping as its safer and cheaper. This would be quite feasible with Arafuras as they have a small rear deck well from which they can launch. But again, we need to buy / build the USVs, which we have not done yet.

    So work is needed to make the Arafuras useful as more than patrol boats. They lack the speed, stealth, decoys (SSM countermeasures) and AA defences needed to be viable in combat with other warships.

  45. Sceptic @ #1648 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 2:26 pm

    So if the EVs are on the road during the day ( which is the reason for their purchase) they would have reduced capacity in the evening & would be plugged into the grid to recharge… so how do they act as storage capacity?

    The average EV’s difference between “reduced capacity” and “empty” after an average day of driving is quite large. Like on the order of several days’ consumption for the average home. Perhaps less for fleet vehicles, but not that much less. And still more than enough to take the edge off the evening peak, or keep the lights on through the night, or whatever.

    And recharging from the grid can/will be scheduled so that the car pulls whenever it makes the most sense. The EV will be plugged in by the evening, but may not actually start pulling any current from the grid until morning, when everyone’s solar panels start producing energy again. That’s what mine does. The software makes it trivial, already.

  46. nath says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:55 pm
    Pi says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 6:33 pm

    Aiken Drum had charm dude. That rules you out.
    ___________
    I’ve got charm coming out of every orifice.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Of course, that’s why your name initially is nath aka nose jewelry!

  47. ar: ” The software makes it trivial, already.”

    The maintenance of that software and infrastructure is going to be a trillion dollar business.

  49. Ar / Sceptic

    “ So if the EVs are on the road during the day ( which is the reason for their purchase) they would have reduced capacity in the evening & would be plugged into the grid to recharge… so how do they act as storage capacity?”

    Lots of countries further down the zero emission transport road than Australia have already found this is not a problem. Most grids have power to spare after the evening peak when everyone has finished cooking and showers.

    Plenty of time between say 10pm and 5am to recharge fleets of electric buses. The power rate is often cheaper too. Obviously there is no solar at these times but wind power is usually in surplus.

    With the new Labor government I am hoping Adelaide might transition to this (electric buses, mainly charged at night). The SA power supply is perfect for it.

  50. In the spirit of giving, all Poll Bludgers win todays’ prize. BK of course gets his usual (that’s two again for you BK). Love youse all!

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