Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I’ve got BB’s personal email from years ago. Might drop a line.
    And Leroy is a nice guy that I met years ago at a small meetup in the CBD.
    Off to that beach for a walk.

  2. Indeed Upnorth, the Chinese COVID situation is a humanitarian crisis on a scale that is hard to fathom. I love China too, having travelled to its 4 corners.

    I found the whole world is just full of good people getting on with their lives, and happy to help out when needed- whether I was in Iran, Turkmenistan, Chile, Belarus or Nepal etc…

  3. Torchbearer says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 1:38 pm

    Indeed Upnorth, the Chinese COVID situation is a humanitarian crisis on a scale that is hard to fathom. I love China too, having travelled to its 4 corners.

    I found the whole world is just full of good people getting on with their lives, and happy to help out when needed- whether I was in Iran, Turkmenistan, Chile, Belarus or Nepal etc…
    中华人民共和国
    This is indeed very true and wisely put.

  4. It seems like another time, but I think it was only 18 months ago that I made this table. It relates your chances of catching covid as a function of how many in your community are currently infected and how many of those people you meet.

    The first column on the left (infectious encounter) is your personal unknown, based on your health and habits. The top row (% infectious) is the epidemiological unknown. What I’m reading on PB about China isn’t good news.

  5. Torchbearer

    “ I found the whole world is just full of good people getting on with their lives, and happy to help out when needed- whether I was in Iran, Turkmenistan, Chile, Belarus or Nepal etc…”

    +1 I had many similar experiences almost thirty years ago when backpacking around Europe and Asian countries after the cold war ended.
    That trip changed my perspective on life and people.

  6. Latest Thai Opinion Poll just released. The Opposition in front with Thaksin Shinawatras’ Daughter, Paetongtarn, leading the race on 34%, incumbent PM Prayut Chan-o-Cha on 14%. Don’t forget the unelected Senate also vote on who forms Government. May 7 2023 scheduled date for the election.

    “Opinion polling center “Nida Poll”, National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) released the results of the public survey titled ” Quarterly Political Popularity Survey No. 4/2022″ , conducted during December 17-22, 2022 among people aged 18. years or more, distributed in all regions at the level of education, occupation and income throughout the country, totaling 2,000 sample units. about political popularity live survey Probabilistic sampling from the master sample database list of “Nida Poll”, simple random sampling, data collection by telephone interview. The confidence value was set at 97.0 percent.

    According to the survey, when asked about the person that the public would support as Prime Minister today, it was found that No. 1, 34.00%, stated that Ms. Pae Thongtarn (Ung Ing) Shinawatra (Pheua Thai Party) because I like the Pheu Thai Party. The party’s policy is realistic. Want to open up opportunities for the new generation to take over the country while some stated that They liked the past performance of the Shinawatra family. The second rank, 14.05 percent, stated that it was General Prayut Chan-o-cha (Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party) because he was a straightforward person. speak seriously honesty make the country peaceful while some stated that will be able to manage the country continuously.”

  7. “Peter Dutton lets Christmas take a back seat to bad news in Yuletide address as Anthony Albanese expresses ‘gratitude’, writes Amy Remeikis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/24/peter-dutton-uses-christmas-message-to-highlight-difficult-year-for-australians

    I noticed this too watching the news last night as well. Unlike Anthony Albanese Christmas address which was a genuine Christmas message. Peter Dutton was a grubby oppturnistic politcal attack. It was tacky and it was the crap Tony Abbott used to pull who would never miss a chance to take a dig at Labor whether it was Barack Obama visiting Australian parliament or his partisan tribute to Bob Hawke after his death.

  8. Political Nightwatchman @ #1808 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 3:40 pm

    “Peter Dutton lets Christmas take a back seat to bad news in Yuletide address as Anthony Albanese expresses ‘gratitude’, writes Amy Remeikis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/24/peter-dutton-uses-christmas-message-to-highlight-difficult-year-for-australians

    I noticed this too watching the news last night as well. Unlike Anthony Albanese Christmas address which was a genuine Christmas message. Peter Dutton was a grubby oppturnistic politcal attack. It was tacky and it was the crap Tony Abbott used to pull who would never miss a chance to take a dig at Labor whether it was Barack Obama visiting Australian parliament or his partisan tribute to Bob Hawke after his death.

    I noticed on the 7 news segment they would show Dutton, then Albo, Dutton then Albo and so on – as if Dutton was the PM.

  9. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 4:38 pm

    BREAKING: China will no longer provide regular coronavirus updates amid surging infection rates.’
    ———————————————————
    I suspect it is a bit like trying to put numbers on a tsunami in real time.

    I feel sorry for horrific situation and suffering of the chinese people.

  10. A lot of people doing it tough this Christmas with the rising cost of living.
    Some sympathy wouldn’t go astray.

    ________________________________________

    At least they are not doing it tough because they received Robodebts that were not debts at all.

  11. Talk about Hobson’s Choice for Thailand. A military government, or yet another Shinowatra sprog, ready, willing and waiting to bleed the country dry for the family. 🙄

  12. Rishi Sunak in the UK didn’t do much better than Peter Dutton:

    Rishi Sunak has been criticised over an awkward exchange with a homeless person while volunteering at a soup kitchen in front of television cameras.

    The prime minister visited a shelter on Friday, where after a brief exchange he asked the man whether he worked in business. The man replied that he was homeless. Sunak then discussed his background in the finance industry and asked if it would be something the man would “like to get in to”.

    The man replied: “I wouldn’t mind, but I don’t know, I’d like to get through Christmas first.”

    He explained that he hoped a charity would find him some temporary accommodation so he was not on the street for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/dec/24/rishi-sunak-rebuked-over-excruciating-exchange-with-homeless-man

    Reminds me of Malcolm Turnbull at Xmas when he was PM.

  13. A/E not sure about whether there is a BB public blog, I’m in text communications with him.

    A recent one on Trump’s NFT cards…

    I’ve been reading The Terms and Conditions of Trump’s baseball card Web site. Basically there’s no obligation to provide anything to anybody, from actual “digital cards” to seats at a Trump dinner. You have to agree that if you win a dinner with Trump, the company actually selling the deal can substitute anyone else at any time. AND you have to pay your own fares and hotel costs.

    The firms involved are registered in strip mall mail dropoff stores, barber shops, milk bars, empty houses etc. across several western states (Utah, Nebraska etc).

    The whole issue has been “sold out” within the first 24 hours. You can only purchase goods – actual cards or sweepstakes tickets – with a crypto wallet. In fact, even if you don’t purchase anything, you still have to open a crypto account to log into the site.

    It’s got “scam” written all over it, probably a money laundering con. I see that the NFT “cards” are already selling for several times more than the original $99 price. My bet would be that it’s the same small group of (probably foreign… Saudi or Russian?) dealers trading with each other in a massive circle jerk, with the object of making ill-gotten money disappear. Trump, as is his custom, lends his name to the enterprise for an upfront fee. There will be a few individual rednecks prepared to confess to buying cards, to make it look legit.

    You’d think there might be less embarrassing schemes to which Trump could sell his name, but maybe it’s the best on offer?

    Cheers, BB

  14. Look if people are yearning for Bushfire Bill so much that their day isn’t complete without his fluffy dog tales, that is when he isn’t using his descriptive talents to abuse people on this blog and defend the indefensible, you can find him any day of the week at his blog, The PUB.

  15. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 7:16 pm
    C@t, not sure if the Pub is happening, one post since 14/12.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Not true, latest post 6.07 this evening!

  16. Dr John and Sprocket_,

    I’ll just add, as the last thing I’ll say about it all, that Mr Bowe has repeatedly reaffirmed he’s happy with the decision he made wrt BB and GG.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 7:23 pm
    Dr John and Sprocket_,

    I’ll just add, as the last thing I’ll say about it all, that Mr Bowe has repeatedly reaffirmed he’s happy with the decision he made wrt BB and GG.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Of course I stand by that. Just trying to assist sprocket.

  18. Well done C@t, we can feel helpless in the short term – but the encouragement in my view is the amount of Russians who have fled the Putler regime.

    They are worth supporting for when the inevitable happens, and change eventuates.

  19. Socrates says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 2:30 pm
    Torchbearer

    “ I found the whole world is just full of good people getting on with their lives, and happy to help out when needed- whether I was in Iran, Turkmenistan, Chile, Belarus or Nepal etc…”

    +1 I had many similar experiences almost thirty years ago when backpacking around Europe and Asian countries after the cold war ended.
    That trip changed my perspective on life and people.
    ———————————————————————————————

    Ditto, I lived and travelled extensively over decades throughout the Middle East and North Africa and most people were wonderful, extending tremendous generosity to us and waking up each day to earn a crust as we all did. Whenever I’d return to Australia folk often imagined whole populations, races or religions as being terrorists when in fact nothing could be further from the truth.

  20. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 7:20 pm
    If people are flush with spare cash and want to donate to a worthy cause, Georgian Volunteers for Ukraine, recommended..

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Good one volunteers.
    I vomited this evening when a certain Vic charity I know a bit about got coverage again on ABC news.
    You can fool people all of the time.

  21. Further to Sprocket’s excellent suggestion on donating to the Georgian volunteers, Xanthippe and I donated to the official Ukraine government charity appeal, United 24.

    This allows you to choose whether to fund medical, reconstruction, refugee or even military aid. You can help fund a drone if you like.

    The Australian Ukraine embassy also recommends this site.

    https://u24.gov.ua/


  22. Most of the US was grappling with heavy snow and temperatures that dipped as low as minus 45C in some places yesterday, hampering holiday plans for hundreds of thousands of people. A huge storm, described by meteorologists as a once-in-40-years event, brought freezing temperatures to the entire country and power cuts were reported in several states.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/nation-shivers-at-45c-as-bomb-cyclone-drops/news-story/bd64ed0d2d2617478dc6822b93f217cc

    “Bomb Cyclone ” drops on US. A huge storm, described by meteorologists as a once-in-40-years event. Enough said.


  23. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 7:21 am
    Interested in the economics of fossil fuels, renewable energy and the impact of global shocks? This thoughtful piece by Malcolm’s son Alex is very good…

    Energy prices going to the moon are a problem, and we need to decarbonize while some fossil fuel extraction continues. The dilemma is how to navigate these tensions while transitioning a system that was already lacking in information in its previous state. Relying on opaque and volatile commodity markets is one thing; relying on those markets while they enter a messy twilight accompanied by geopolitical instability and climate impacts is entirely another.

    To understand how fossil fuel commodities may become expensive, abundant, or inaccessible due to geopolitics, energy policies, climate impacts, and technology requires a granular view. Which assets are likeliest to be stranded? If we need new investment, where exactly is it required? Without this kind of detail, the simplistic global demand models used by policymakers, capital allocators, and influential experts will not be able to grapple with an emerging multipolarity, breakdowns in trading relationships, and climate shocks.

    https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/facts-on-the-ground/

    Unless US, China, India and Russia curb their baser and wild instincts and work cooperatively on “global demand models used by policymakers, capital allocators” along with technological know-how of Germany and Japan it will be extremely unlikely that the world will even be able to restrict the temperature rise to 2°C by 2050 let alone the end of the century.

  24. Socrates @ #1778 Sunday, December 25th, 2022 – 7:54 pm

    Further to Sprocket’s excellent suggestion on donating to the Georgian volunteers, Xanthippe and I donated to the official Ukraine government charity appeal, United 24.

    This allows you to choose whether to fund medical, reconstruction, refugee or even military aid. You can help fund a drone if you like.

    The Australian Ukraine embassy also recommends this site.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    Thanks for this, Soc. I think I can spare another $25 for a ‘Shahed Hunter’. 🙂

  25. sprocket at 7.28 pm

    Dr Bonham is comprehensive as usual but he’s a long way from knowing the electorate of Bega. He says it’s a putative Liberal seat because Dr Holland won it at a by-election. Yet Dr Holland’s margin is very similar to Nichole Overall’s margin in Monaro (which she also won at a by-election). Mrs Overall has a much harder time retaining her seat than Dr Holland will have, because she faces a strong opponent in Mr Terry Campese.

    Dr Bonham says: “On average the Coalition needs 51.8% 2PP (-0.2%) for a better than even chance of a majority. Almost any swing to Labor, all else being equal, means the Coalition is likely to lose its majority. This results from personal vote effects (including leadership change) for Labor in close seats, but the Coalition having some very close, disrupted (Bega) or adversely redistributed seats that lack any personal vote protection.” So that calculation is affected by his misunderstanding of Bega as Liberal.

    Noting the average of recent polls is 54-46 to Labor (but the significance of TPP is less clear given the Optional Preferential system in NSW), Dr Bonham then concludes:

    “Overall, for the time being the Coalition on aggregate is in a losing or at best struggling position and it will probably need substantial improvement (perhaps on the order of 3-4% 2PP) over the next few months if the government is to survive in any form. There are, however, plenty of precedents for such recoveries. The Berejiklian government was behind about 49-51 in late 2018 and finished up winning 52-48. The Palaszczuk Labor government in Queensland was down about 48.5-51.5 in mid-2020 and won 53.2-46.8 in October.”

    The word probably might be more accurately rendered as definitely. Perrottet does not have the electoral appeal of Saint Gladys, and if ICAC finally delivers its report before 25 March it will, most probably, not help him but confirm negative electoral attitudes.

    On other points Dr Bonham says that everyone in the media’s favourite neddy, Hung Parliament, has the inside running in this NSW election, but he doubts that it will win.

  26. Relying on opaque and volatile commodity markets is one thing; relying on those markets while they enter a messy twilight accompanied by geopolitical instability and climate impacts is entirely another.

    Has anyone else noticed Petro States diversifying away from simply retailing their fossil fuels to the world? I was reading a Washington Post story about who has stumped up cash to fund Elon’s Reactionary Conservative Twitter. Yep, Qatar & Saudi Arabia, plus a bunch of ultra conservative tech titans.

    Also, Binance:

    The massive cryptocurrency exchange was recently in the news for backing out of its plans to acquire FTX, a rival exchange co-founded by Sam Bankman-Fried that has since collapsed. Shortly after Musk’s initial bid for Twitter, Binance contacted him and committed $500 million toward the purchase.

    The exchange’s executives have said they support Musk’s desire to curb the presence of bots on the platform. They have also said they see Twitter as an opportunity to research and develop crypto-related technology and services, including payments and authentication. The crypto company, founded in China, has no headquarters and has drawn the scrutiny of regulators in the United States, Britain and Japan.

    What they get: As part of the deal, anyone who invested $250 million or more gets special access to confidential company information. But giving that privilege to foreign investors is raising flags with Biden and U.S. officials. Of particular interest is whether that includes access to personal data about Twitter’s users since several of the entities are entwined with governments that have a history of cracking down on dissidents on Twitter and other online platforms.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/24/elon-musk-twitter-funders/

    So I’d be really careful about posting on Twitter.

    As of right now I’m waiting for Mozilla to finish developing it’s Twitter alternative, which will have universal access like Twitter.

  27. TPOFsays:
    Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 5:40 pm
    A lot of people doing it tough this Christmas with the rising cost of living.
    Some sympathy wouldn’t go astray.

    ________________________________________

    At least they are not doing it tough because they received Robodebts that were not debts at all.

    ________________________________________________________

    It was a stuff up from start to finish but the majority had legitimate debts. That is one of the worst aspects of the whole fiasco millions and millions lost to defrauders because of a botched scheme, then to top it off they got a Robodebt stuff up payment, many laughed all the way to the bank. But no you will keep the faith…no one ripped off Centrelink not a single one the Robodebt system only caught out innocent people only. This is the sort of thinking that always destroys the ALP in the end. There has been no boats for so long lets……..

  28. Dr Doolittle,
    Apt commentary about the seat of Bega. I don’t think the effect of the bushfires on the electorate and the way they were treated by the Liberals will ever be forgotten. It has to be worth at least 1% to Labor in any election.

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