The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
As a Gold Coaster this forum has done a good job informing my opinion about what to expect come election night in Victoria. I will be watching the returns on ABC24. Thank-you Trent, and others for your reasoned and ongoing contributions.
P.s. I don’t gamble.
Is it expected that the VEC will report daily early voting numbers?
“Trent says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 12:54 pm
Rocket, I think reinforcing that “threat” of a minority government and/or Greenslide will absolutely have the opposite of their intended effect, and drive more voters to Labor!”…
Yes, I agree!… On the other hand, if the MSM tell the truth and say that the ALP will comfortably win, then that would also increase the chances of the ALP winning.
Funny situation the pro-Coalition MSM are in, eh?… 🙂
“Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 4:01 pm
Greens and independents surge. Albert Park, Richmond, Northcote gone from ALP. Melton, Point Cook, Hawthorn gone from ALP. Footscray, Bellarine, Werribee too close to call.
4% swing to Liberals from ALP.
ALP in big big trouble.
Minority Labor government.
And that’s on 53.5/47.5 2pp.”….
But, but Jeremy, isn’t all that crap affecting your already delicate mental equilibrium?… In any event, my guess is that on election night you won’t be here posting, being stiff laying on your bed, after some kind of general collapse of mental and other bodily functions…. But you will be back a few days later, talking about a devastating win for the Coalition at next year NSW state election… Ha, ha, ha…
Alpo
On election day they may go with the “Labor headed for easy win” vibe. When all else failed in the past and Labor is clearly going to win they have adopted this. Maybe hoping a few punters go “Well in that case we better make sure they don’t win too easily”
One election was amusing – The Age had ‘late swing to Coalition’ and The Australian had ‘Labor set to win’ – maybe it was Federal 1980, with the Age (pre-“Nine”) trying to ward off a late swing and the Australian trying to scare the horses!
Someone in media told me that all the spending on TV, Radio, Newspapers was really about ‘buying’ coverage. With the implicit suggestion that if you didn’t advertise your general coverage would diminish. Sort of –
“That’s a nice election campaign you’ve got there – would be a shame if something happened to it”
Wisdom from the past and just as relevant today.
Remember the Sun News Pictorial and now rebadged as the herald-Sun, when it was in the Herald and Weekly Times stable. The only “readers” the paper had were those that used the form guide, the rest just bought it for the pictures….
Garbage in garbage out with today less readers than The Age.
Alpo @ #200 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 4:57 pm
There is hope for Jeremy with advise from medical specialists:
“Ignoring your anal leakage won’t improve the underlying problem and may affect your physical, emotional, and social well-being. But there are many effective treatments for anal leakage that can help you regain control over your bowel function and improve your quality of life. “
Jeremy’s unnamed poll/ Redbridge? v Morgan, NewsPoll, Bowe, etc, for the rest of us…..
Somehow , Jeremy’s “poll” outranks all the rest and only his poll and his interpretation is spot on.
Truly Pythonesque.
Seriously though,one could expect a swing away from the Government. But a major swing- enough to create Minority government?
Jeremy must be seeing a ( Liberal) Blue wave Down Under.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/stupid-politics-labor-greens-trade-blows-over-climate-scorecard-in-hawthorn-20221115-p5byfp.html
Labor minority looks like the most likely result now. Newspoll and Kos from Redbridge seem on the money before ALP ease. As I’ve stated many times previously, ALP could lose Richmond, Albert Park, Norhtcote, Footscray, Preston, Pascoe Vale to the Greens.
ALP could lose Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, Hawthorn, Bellarine to independents.
ALP get a swing against it of approximately 4% which puts eight to ten odd seats in danger of falling to Liberals.
Minority Labor it is.
Jeremy @ #210 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
Some of the typical treatment options recommended include:
Diet modification
Nutritional supplements
Bowel training
A home exercise program
Physical therapy
Biofeedback
Medication
[Off topic]
There used to be a way on this board to block certain commenters, I think – I’m almost certain.
If that is possible, can someone, anyone, please remind me how to do that?
Thank you
On the outer east – the Liberals are clearly putting a lot of resources into holding Evelyn, including advertising on large billboards (not just the standard signs). On the other hand, I was in Croydon Hills on the weekend (mostly in the seat of Croydon with a bit in Warrandyte) and didn’t see a single sign for any candidate, which made me wonder if the local council there doesn’t allow them?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11428671/Victoria-election-Dan-Andrews-Labor-government-edgy-Neil-Mitchell-leaks-poll.html
Sorry Trent, that fang dangling thingy google returned this article regarding Neil Mitchell’s leaked internal polling. Wouldn’t take it too seriously.
BT – plenty of Labor and Liberal corflutes in Bayswater and Monbulk electorates when I was out there last week. May have also seen some Green and Independent ones but I think I am just more attuned to noticing the majors when driving!
As for Neil Mitchell – he reminds me of Maxwell Smart
“The old ‘leaked internal party polling’ trick – that’s the second time I’ve fallen for that this week!”
BT – I suspect you’re right. Unsure about Maroondah, but I don’t remember seeing many (any?) during the federal campaign or state ones in my recent travels through there.
I know neighbouring Knox City only allow them in a handful designated zones, so maybe they do something similar.
We must be at the dirt file stage of the election… interestingly in the Murdoch organs. Perhaps friendly fire?
Just got back from making a funding announcement with the Attorney General (you buy a lot of love for $3 million…)
She didn’t look or sound like someone who thinks the government is in any trouble.
I follow Whores of Yore, as do — among the other Twitter accounts I follow — Samantha Maiden, Claire Lehmann, Gay Alcorn, Dennis Atkins, Shane Wright, Amy Remeikis and Annika Smethurst, among many others.
One of the guys handing out at Wodonga today is in hospital with a broken leg after someone handing out for the Freedom Party assaulted him.
Presumably charges have been laid?
zoomster at 8.20 pm
Presumably there were a few witnesses to the assault. Hopefully the thug will not get away without a trial and consequences. No excuse for such horrible violence.
zoomster
That is terrible. All our best wishes to him for a full and speedy recovery.
https://twitter.com/KSmyrk/status/1592397493131964416
Jeremy: “… Neil Mitchell’s leaked internal polling …”
Internal poling can certainly lead to leakage. 😉
Hey, Jeremy!
Australian Electoral Forecasts
Victorian State Election
@ 14 Nov 2022
Probability of Labor majority: 90.4%
You’re welcome!
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
Rocket Rocket:
‘As for Neil Mitchell – he reminds me of Maxwell Smart
“The old ‘leaked internal party polling’ trick – that’s the second time I’ve fallen for that this week!”’
Samantha Maiden similarly got badly burned touting internal polling before the federal election.
Liberal insiders were reportedly confident of another Morrison Miracle.
Ms Maiden was mightily miffed to discover she’d been led up the garden path.
Ignore the troll is my advice.
Speaking of trolling, has anyone seen any seat polling yet? Because by this stage of the Federal election campaign you couldn’t move for tripping over a poll of a “Teal” electorate intended to demonstrate that these candidates were legit threats – which helped encourage donations and support as well as votes.
My feeling on the ground remains that the independent threat is massively overblown this election. Media caught out by how well the Federal teals did are fighting the last war again.
And ‘leaked’ internal party polling is almost always about individual seats – with tiny samples and this huge margins of error. Which will give the ‘leaker’ (who is likely following instructions from their hierarchy) a good excuse afterwards.
And being individual seats it’s soon forgotten – not like Neil has a scoop ‘Labor says they are about to lose’
Arky
I am feeling Kew definitely for a new Independent, maybe Hawthorn.
Possibly Brighton or Caulfield but they would surprise me.
Looking for suggestions here. Am struggling to find someone in the LC who will support my two biggest concerns*: religious freedom and urgent climate action. Is it possible to have both?
(Not interested in having my views critiqued, just wondering if there’s any party that supports my combination)
“Daniel Bsays:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 10:25 pm
Looking for suggestions here. Am struggling to find someone in the LC who will support my two biggest concerns*: religious freedom and urgent climate action. Is it possible to have both?
(Not interested in having my views critiqued, just wondering if there’s any party that supports my combination)”
Labor and Greens are for religious freedom (in its general meaning, rather any specific bill) and urgent climate action.
Thanks for your reply. My concern with Labor is that Andrews has come across as antagonistic toward my religious beliefs – and many people who share them have expressed the same.
Re the Neil Mitchell “scoop”: I don’t believe it, and I won’t until he’s willing to put up the news – and name his source. Such is the contempt which modern Australian “journalists” have earned, that I cannot help but count the (potential) political motivations far more heavily than the “news” in question.
@Daniel B: What kind – in rough terms – of “religious freedom” did you have in mind? The term seems to have as many meanings as there are religions, sects and fringe cults combined.
I will vote for anyone who can guarantee me freedom from religion!
Especially that bizarre religion which hates gays, loves guns and oppresses the reproductive rights of others.
I lie. I’ve already voted.
Daniel B
“My concern with Labor is that Andrews has come across as antagonistic toward my religious beliefs”
How is Andrews antagonistic toward your religious beliefs ?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-prepare-for-hung-parliament-will-deal-on-rent-logging-and-gas-20221115-p5bygk.html?btis
Keep pushing that ‘hung parliament’ boulder up the hill, Sisyphus!
Meanwhile, a psephological perspective:
“Saturday, November 12, 2022
Victorian Lower House: Not All That Much Narrowing Here
“POLLING AGGREGATE 55.8 TO ALP
(not necessarily accurate)
“Labor currently appears *overwhelmingly likely to win*, most likely in majority with *low but realistic chance of hung parliament*”
(Thinks) “Hmm, who to believe; Costello’s stenographers or Dr Kevin Bonham? That’s a tough one!” 🙂
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victorian-lower-house-not-all-that-much.html
Daniel B says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 11:01 pm
Thanks for your reply. My concern with Labor is that Andrews has come across as antagonistic toward my religious beliefs – and many people who share them have expressed the same.
—
How exactly have you felt antagonised by the govt?
“many people who share them have expressed the same”
It’s tempting to echo Thatcher’s indignant response to George Negus:
“Who are these people? What are their names?”
Their names are Fred, Tony, Bernie and Moira. Possibly the federal candidate in 2022 for Warringa. That’s it. All of them.
Notable climate change deniers, to boot.
I’ve taught at the school Dan Andrews went to (Jenny Macklin went there too).
Very much a place which teaches religious values, and teaching there I could understand why Andrews went into politics. It has a strong ethos around lived values and working for others.
One of my relatives taught Dan Andrews there.
(Assuming you’re talking about Galen).
Expat
Indeed.
RE: Neil Mitchell & His “surprise, surprise” Secret Internal Polling.
“There’s ne’er a fool, like an old Fool!”
And make it Fool plural and it perfectly describes his audience,too!
Does Andrews and his Ministers Talk to Mitchell?
I remember, here in NSW, Keating & Carr adopted a blanket ban on media contact with Alan Jones on the basis that he never gave the ALP a fair comment and his overiding LNP bias.
Religious Freedom & Climate Action.
Daniel B I would suggest that you research the policies of the ALP, the Greens or a Climate Change aligned Independent.
The LNP will not help you with Climate Change concerns.
Most of these candidates would support the vast amount of Anti-Discrimination Legislation which is on both the State & Federal Statutes.
The Federal Constitution has a clause which excludes Governments from enacting legislation which suppresses religious choice in Australia.
However, if you are searching for a party which supports the right to discriminate against the Anti-Discrimination statutes, Australia wide, then i suggest you consider the
myriad of alleged freedom nutters which are manifesting themselves in Australia and globally.
Daniel B — you might try something like Vote Compass to see which party is closest to your preferences in general. The most recent version is focussed on the 2022 Federal election but it might give you a pointer as to the stances of various political parties in a more general sense and where they sit relative to your preferences. Unlikely to generate a clear solution of course. It may be that voting for one of the centrist parties (eg the Liberals or ALP) will be the least worst solution for you. You might also consider speaking in person to the candidates in your electorate about the issues that are most important to you (chances are you’ll find them standing outside an early voting centre over the next few weeks) and seeing who you are most comfortable/least uncomfortable with.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-15/victorian-election-pre-polling-labor-volunteer-shoved-leg-broken/101656416
Zoomster, stay safe.
“Daniel B says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 11:01 pm
Thanks for your reply. My concern with Labor is that Andrews has come across as antagonistic toward my religious beliefs – and many people who share them have expressed the same.”
Well, if your religious beliefs include bashing the homosexuals because they are sinners and will all go straight to hell, then may I suggest to you to vote ALP and change your religion? That would look like a pretty Evil religion, don’t you think?
It is reported that Murdoch has informed Trump that he (Murdoch) will not support Trump in the 2024 Presidential election
This is the very same Murdoch who is active as he is in the current Victorian election campaign
Why is it that Murdoch’s support for a political party is being reported, and assumed of importance?
No doubt the support of Murdoch will be for an alternate Republican candidate, not a Democrat candidate
Be very careful people
It is not media with a fixated universal party political bias which dictates who should govern
With Labor holding 44 seats by a margin greater than 7%, I think it’s fair to say they will control the Assembly after the 26th.
The really interesting aspect of the election is the dogfight in the Legislative Council.
I just hope the tv networks covering the election recognise this and give special attention to the upper house which is the more intriguing story by far.