The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
In Bayswater, Jackson Taylor is going to smash Nick Wakeling. I have local intel that Wakeling is very depressed re his chance and so he should be.
I certainly hope so, though I’ll believe it when I see it.
Someone on here had similar intel on Bayswater back in 2018 that turned out to be spot-on though, so…
MAWBM at 3.35 pm re time Melton is called
Did you mean Qld time? There may not be any votes available by soon after 6.30 pm.
First time poster, reasonably long time reader… Be gentle I’ll admit to currently being a ALP voter however I occasional swing in the Senate…
I am concerned in Vic that the trend of the rise in RWNJ votes especially in the outer Eastern Suburbs will continue. I feel Labor will struggle a little this time compared to last time in seats like Evelyn and Monbulk. I don’t think it’s enough to lose Monbulk but I fear this becomes a target seat next election. Craig Cole gets pole position and he achieved 3.47% of the vote for Casey at the 2022 Fed elction, Phon got 3.23 and UAP 2.24 so he has a (small) profile out there already. If RWNJ’s vote gets to 10% that is a big spoiler, they all hate Dan and that pushes it to the worry zone for me.
I have a personal knowledge of Craig, maybe 10 years ago I would have considered him a nice guy, however like a lot of people who frequent gyms (or so it seems) he is lost to thouhgts of conspiracy’s everywhere.
As for Evelyn the redistribution is fascinating and I would love to see final figures from those who were moved – Do we ever get them?
The other very interesting seat is one Trent aand Dr John have posted a bit about, Brighton. I find it interesting that the ALP candidate is one that is known to the area, having been Mayor and is still a counsellor, ran 2 elections back against Louise Asher and is a LEAN candidate, yet none of that seems to get mentioned. I think she has a higher profile amongst younger voters than people realise and might surprise with a better primary vote and with preferences from greens she has a sneaky chance.
Anyway, I have this place as my goto for election discussions and generally enjoy the posts and Banter on here.
Doubledummy
Welcome and thanks for your contribution. A few years ago I kept a tally on regular contributors and no-one believed me when I came up with a number which I think was something like 200. Obviously it revs up a lot before State and especially Federal elections. William (our liege Lord) years ago said he wouldn’t cover things like US mid-terms but I think he got sick of the ‘main’ commentary being infected by that stuff so now he often has Adrian Beaumont run interesting commentary threads on overseas elections, like the current one where Adrian is providing regular updates on the late counting in those US mid-terms.
I went driving through Bayswater and Monbulk last week and certainly noticed a lot of Labor and Liberal corflutes. I am a bit worried about Monbulk with Merlino retiring, but maybe as you say it’s in the 2026 basket.
ps – steroids!
Welcome Doubledummy, I have the same thoughts about Louise Crawford.
In 2018, Brighton was almost won by a 19 year old unknown with a $1700 budget.
This time Labor are running a former mayor, current councillor and TV actor, who is active on climate issues, female, progressive, locally well known – similar profile to a teal.
On top of that, a deteriorating Liberal brand and favourable redistribution for Labor. If it was a straight ALP v LIB contest I’d say Louise Crawford would be the clear favourite, but how IND preferences flow (I don’t see the IND making the 2CP) will likely be the wild card.
The other day, we were discussing the “Sack Dan Andrews” Party bizarrely having split tickets where half the prefs will go to Labor.
Relevant – the following from Kevin Bonham’s twitter feed:
Today, there is a leaked video of Glenn Druery, where he confirms that the SDA is a fake/sockpuppet party he created to attract cooker votes from Freedom etc, and feed them into his preference harvesting machine.
Druery also claims that he got Andy Meddick (AJP) elected as a favour to the CFMEU, in order to get friendly preferences from Labor.
He also says that someone from the Libs approached him for help, and he said that any assistance given to them would be contingent on NOT ending GVT. Druery claims they said no, but in light of the Libs’ contributions to the debate on it last year, this may be worth more investigation…
Read Kevin’s twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1592810320497549316
Trent says:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 4:00 pm
Max you make a good point about the Frankston line / Sandbelt seats.
Due to a realigning of Labor & Liberal geographical strength I think the closer to the city, the safer they will remain for Labor.
For example, I think Labor’s margins will be reduced in Carrum and Frankston, whereas I think Nick Staikos will preserve or possibly even improve his large margin in Bentleigh.
Mordialloc probably fits somewhere in between, but remember all the vocal Skyrail opposition in Murrumbeena & Hughesdale last time, but Labor got a double-digit swing in Oakleigh (including the polling places near those stations!) so I think the majority quietly approve of Skyrail, and only the most directly impacted locals oppose it and make a lot of noise, but it’s still a net-positive overall.
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True Trent. Mordialloc circa 2022 has lost parts of Cheltenham and gained parts of Keysborough that are stereotyped as having that “outer suburban/stroppy tradies” demographic, so it may look more like Carrum and Frankston than Bentleigh. And yes I think Skyrail will be a complete non-issue politically once it’s built and that locals will like it ; if I’m correct – i may not be – it had already been completed around Hughesdale/ Murrumbeena at the time of the 2018 election. It’s while it’s in planning phase that the Liberals have some scope to stir up fear and outrage about it, but it’s hard to know how deep it runs.
Further context to the Druery video mentioned above – it was leaked by Heston Russell of the “Angry Victorians” party (the Victorian branch of his “Australian Values Party”), from a meeting Russell had with Druery with regard to joining the network.
Expat – thanks. Compulsory reading.
And thank you Kevin Bonham for this – GTVs really have to go. Hopefully this is their last hurrah.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/10/victorian-party-policies-on-fixing.html
Hi clem! My local intel is that Jackson Taylor in Bayswater has not once been seen in either a local shopping strip or a train station with a single ALP member or supporter in tow.
Indeed, he appears to be the only human ALP presence campaigning in the entire electorate. One suspects that he might even be responsible for putting up all of the ALP corflutes, such as there are.
You don’t happen to live in the Bayswater district, do you? Jackson could really benefit from having someone to chat to, and a person such as yourself with ‘local intel’ might be a real benefit to the party right about now.
New thread.