The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Victorian election. The general discussion thread is here.
Is Redbridge credible?
the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5
———————————–
Not flattering for the corrupt media after all the propaganda and still the propaganda to come
Interesting that the Greens have preferenced Reason above the Socialists in Northern Metro, contrary to what they did at the federal. Possibly struck a deal to stop Reason from preferencing minor parties like they did last time.
“Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with.”….
I agree, the real ALP 2PP on election night will be higher than that.
@ somethinglikethatsays
Redbridge is working with / for certain ‘teal’ independents. They are heavily invested in pushing the narrative of a hung parliament. Accordingly, their work should be subject to the appropriate level of scepticism.
I am not aware of Redbridge publishing any national polls for the Federal election, so it is difficult to assess the quality of their work.
Have Murdoch and Costello realised that they only have 12 days left to turn the disastrous situation for the Lobster around?… What are they going to do?
Neither the “Dictator Dan” nor the more recent “Ambulance of Doom” campaigns worked. What else do they have in store?
The fact that so many micro parties on both the left and right appear to have directed preferences ideologically gives me hope the Druery deals might fizzle this time. Druery’s approach only works if almost all the micros are on board.
Liberals have UAP second in NE Metro, Northern Metro, Northern Victoria (Geoff Shaw!), Southern Metro, and Western Victoria. They have 2 tickets with Liberal Democrats and Family First second in SE Metro. The lead Liberal candidate in SE Metro ran for Family First in 2006. They have PHON second in Eastern Victoria, and to top it off they have the DLP (Bernie Finn!) second in Western Metro.
Here’s how it is in Western Metro for the three breakaway MLC (Finn, Cumming, and Vaghela)
Finn-Cumming-Vaghela: FFV, SFF, LIB, CPP, UAP
Finn-Vaghela-Cumming: LDP, HAP, SDA, Group U
Cumming-Vaghela-Finn: RP, LCV, AJP
Cumming-Finn-Vaghela: PHON, FPV, ALP
Vaghela-Finn-Cumming: SAP, Group E, VS, TMP
Vaghela-Cumming-Finn: GRN, DHJP
Cumming has Vaghela over Finn, Vaghela has Cumming over Finn, and Finn has Cumming over Vaghela
The Hun’s take on the poll (naturally they’re trying to convey the idea that Guy has a chance).
What I do know, from personally knowing an Independent candidate at the up-coming election, is that Redbridge is the polling/influence provider to the “Teal” campaign.
These campaigns are in selected seats.
Selected seats where polling is showing, on preferences, the “Teal” candidates will be elected.
“citizen says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 9:26 am
The Hun’s take on the poll (naturally they’re trying to convey the idea that Guy has a chance).”…
Ha, ha, ha… Yeah, the “danger of minority government”… haven’t we heard that one before?
I mean, what’s wrong with Murdoch? Doesn’t he realise that when propaganda tactics don’t work, he has to change them?… Or perhaps he has given up?
Redbrige reckons voters prefer Matt Guy decisively on health. Mmmm.
If the groups have splintered too much and they don’t have the numbers between them, Legalise Cannabis is going to come through the middle in some regions. They are involved in the progressive group and are almost universally preferred over the ALP and Greens, and in some cases over the Coalition too.
LCV has column A in SE Metro. Here’s what the others have done with them in that region. ALP and Greens have LCV second. Liberals have LCV only ahead of ALP. Btw, the lead LCV candidate in that region previously ran for the Reason Party.
LCV behind all three: SAP
LCV ahead of Greens only: FPV, FFV
LCV ahead of ALP and Greens: PHON, CPP, DLP, UAP
LCV ahead of all three: HAP, LDP, DHJP, VS, RDSDA, AVP, ND, TMP, RP, SFF, AJP
Poll favouring Labor a touch methinks at the expense of the Greens. Not worth quibbling over. Redbridge and Kos extremely good at what they do. Labor should ease a little more till election day for a 52/53 to 47/48 2pp result. That really is minority government territory. Enjoy the next two weeks everyone. Fascinating election on 26th.
2PP should be 54-46 of these numbers.
Poll also has Matthew Guy leading decisively on health which I find curious.
citizen
I am sometimes incredibly pessimistic/terrified before elections. In 2002 I had a feeling that Labor might lose (spectacularly wrong!) – helped by a headline in the Herald-Sun highlighting a poll a few days out that had Labor on 42% primary vote and Coalition on 41%. People later said that that poll likely helped Bracks achieve a landslide result of 62 seats to 24 by pushing some people to Labor after the very recent memory of the Kennett Government – and the primaries in the election were closer to 48% and 34% respectively.
@Alpo: “I mean, what’s wrong with Murdoch? Doesn’t he realise that when propaganda tactics don’t work, he has to change them?”
Even more to the point, if Murdoch doesn’t want a thumping Labor win then why is he spruiking the possibility of a minority Labor-Greens government, which always drives late undecided voters to Labor? They’re making the same mistake they did in 2018!
This Conversation article by Paul Strangio from BK’s Dawn Patrol in the main thread is quite a good read:
https://theconversation.com/a-political-force-of-nature-despite-scandals-and-a-polarising-style-can-dan-do-it-again-in-victoria-187344
On what planet do the good folks believe the LNP and their cronies are going to ‘fix’ health?
Defunding health is their DNA.
The Liberal candidate for Prahran has posted his HTV card on Facebook.
#5 – Sam Hibbins (Greens)
#6 – Wesa Chau (Labor)
Basically confirms Prahran as a Greens retain regardless of whether it’s GRN v LIB or GRN v ALP.
Looking at all the seats where an Independent is first or second in PB’s favourite wagering site (sorry!)
And I imagine these are the seats where independents will realistically have a chance of still being “alive” at the “Two Candidate Preferred Vote” stage. Obviously remembering the caveats about wagering sites and small pools etc, but it will be interesting to see how many independents get up this time.
Seats where independent is currently ‘favourite’
Shepparton – 1.16 (Still hard to get my head around this where I have much Nationals family!)
Mildura – 1.40 (Haven’t been up there lately, I had heard Ali Cupper could be in trouble – time will tell)
Kew – 1.55 (I think Ind will win here)
Caulfield 2.55 – versus Liberal 2.75 and Labor 3.00
Seats where independent is second ‘favourite’
Benambra – 1.90
Mornington – 2.05
Hawthorn – 2.15 (I think Ind may win this, but less likely than Kew)
Brighton – 2.30
Point Cook – 3.00 (Joe Garra running – new seat but lots of ‘old seat’ Werribee areas)
Melton – 4.25
South-West Coast – 5.00 (Independent takes over from Labor as ‘also ran’)
Werribee – 5.50 (Independents are “no Joe Garra” to paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen)
Rocket Rocket, yep and do the same with the Greens. Also this bloke Grecko(?) in Preston. Is he any chance and is he preferencing Greens before Labor. And is Greens preferencing him before Labor. SW Coast, are independents preferencing between themselves before major’s and whose Greens preferencing. Melton, snakeman preferencing Ian Birchall before libs and are Greens preferencing Ian before Labor?
Nothing like a good train wreck to take your mind off a political train wreck.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/horrific-scenes-near-geelong-as-train-derails-from-flooded-tracks/news-story/faf5d88074074114a4e088a06eb3d5a7?amp
It’d make my night to see the independents get up in both Caulfield and Brighton. Sitting members in both seats are the absolute opposite of ‘merit-based selection’.
Lobster Guy to Neil Mitchell, just now:
“now every poll says is our primary votes are the same or better than the government”
A Liberal leader propagating porkies? Who woulda thunk it?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/nov/14/australia-news-live-weather-flooding-albanese-bali-summit-housing-health-gambling-economy-nsw-victoria-qld
Alpo: “the real ALP 2PP on election night will be higher than that.”
Jeremy: “Labor should ease a little more till election day for a 52/53 to 47/48 2pp result.”
Take your pick from your preferred pundit …
People are disillusioned with politics. That takes many forms. They don’t trust politicians to keep promises. They are drifting away to a land of independents.
Big policies resonate. Vision is a drawcard. But the hundreds of millions thrown around confetti does not work. It’s often seen as a corrupt rush to buy my vote.
In Victoria, as I have often said here, Dan is not trusted or even liked ala Bracks. Guy is seen as an L plater not up to it.
So what to do?
Vote for neither doesn’t achieve much. Voting Independent won’t give us stability. It’s back to Dan or Guy.
This is where the quiet Victorian plays a key role. They lie or don’t talk with pollsters. They just wait.
Think that’s happening here. Nothing would surprise me. Nothing.
@somethinglikethat – In Caulfield I’d be happy with either the teal or Labor; but in Brighton I’d much prefer Labor since the independent is a Liberal. Not a distant ex-Liberal who left due to the direction of the party, but a Liberal who actually ran for preselection as recently as this election. She’s even using Liberal light blue instead of teal as her campaign colour. She would clearly side with the Coalition on most issues if elected.
@Oliver re: Guy’s quote of “now every poll says is our primary votes are the same or better than the government”
LOL. A total of ONE poll had them tied (Newspoll) and every single other poll has the Coalition below Labor, usually by a very wide margin! Even this new Redbridge poll, while closer, still has them below Labor.
Where does he get “every poll” saying same or better from?
Looking at the top eight of my list of possible independent members, only Hawthorn is a Labor seat and that was a bit of a fluke last time. So none of the others will affect Labor’s numbers.
Rocket Rocket – Surely Melton and Point Cook are on your Independent watch list?
@Al Pal, what’s interesting about the “Quiet Victorians” concept is that it’s likely to be the opposite effect of what you see federally or in the USA.
In other states, and the US, the “quiet” supporters were often conservative.
However, over the past 2 years in Victoria, the pandemic has given conservatives and those who oppose Labor’s social agenda something they feel comfortable being vocal about – ie. Prior to 2020 they may not have felt comfortable publicly opposing Labor on their social issues, but they have no problem at all using lockdowns, health, vaccines etc to be very vocal against the government.
Therefore I don’t think there is any “quiet” anti-Dan or anti-Labor sentiment, it’s very vocal. The “quiet” voters are those more likely to have quietly supported the government’s response to the pandemic but don’t bring up the topic because they don’t want the argument with the vocal minority.
Also, almost no polls are conducted by humans so there is no ‘quiet’ factor in most polls here, unlike the US. People have no reason to lie to a robocall when pressing buttons on their phone; and I think the polls have backed up the idea that a third of the population are very vocally against Andrews; a third of the population are very vocally left-wing; and the middle third – the ‘quiet Victorians’ – tend to be leaning much more strongly towards Labor than the Coalition.
Will, the general “Druery group” tactics are to systematically favour a different one from among their number in each of the LC regions, so the favoured one can build up a quota from next to no primaries. As far as your summary goes, there’s no sign of that this time. If you dig deeper can you spot this happening again – and who the favoured one is in each region?
And re the Companions and Pets – I have the impression that it was set up by racehorse and greyhound owners and trainers, and they have roped in ordinary pet owners to try to disguise the fact that it’s a pro-racing-and-gambling pressure group. This would explain the generally rightish trend in the GVTs.
Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 10:57 am
Alpo: “the real ALP 2PP on election night will be higher than that.”
Jeremy: “Labor should ease a little more till election day for a 52/53 to 47/48 2pp result.”
Take your pick from your preferred pundit
————-
I’d go with polls, informed by the fundamentals: long term State governments tend to lose ground, especially where they’re coming off a landslide win in the previous election, and are of the same political complexion as the Federal government. In this case the latter factor would be blunted by the fact that Albo’s pretty much still in the honeymoon. My guess would be an ALP 2PP of ~ 53%. I don’t expect another 56%+ result notwithstanding that’s where some of the polls have been landing. If the government loses 2-3 seats to the Greens owing to Liberal preferencing and 1-2 seats to independents (eg Melton) they might end up with a small absolute majority – the most likely result in my view – but (though I don’t want to tempt the electoral gods) the prospect of a Liberal led government of any sort is thankfully minimal. It was mentioned by Raf Epstein or Richard Willingham that the ALP’s electoral strategy is focussed squarely on getting over the line in 45 seats.
@Brisbane Jack, I agree about Companions & Pets.
I looked them up this morning to see what they are about.
They are basically the complete opposite of Animal Justice Party, they are about “owners’ rights” trumping “animals’ rights”. Eg. Deregulation of what owners can do with their animals. They oppose all the legislation around breeding & racing that is designed to protect the welfare of animals.
The Greens HTV cards are online, it’s similar to what I expected – the genuine progressives higher than Labor:
Hawthorn: Melissa Lowe (2) higher than Labor (4)
Kew: Sophie Torney (2) higher than Labor (4)
Caulfield: Nomi Kaltmann (3) higher than Labor (4)
But Labor higher than the competitive independents elsewhere:
Brighton: Labor higher than Felicity Frederico
Sandringham: Labor higher than Clarke Martin
Melton: Labor higher than Ian Birchall
Point Cook: Labor higher than Joe Garra
I expected that the Greens would definitely put the IND higher in Hawthorn & Kew, and they even put them higher than AJP in those two seats. Whereas Caulfield I always thought would be 50/50 which is probably reflected by them being closer together – 3 & 4 – both below AJP.
Didn’t Jeremy try to place a friendly wager with Dr John about Brighton? 🙂
As for how it impacts the chances in those seats:
Hawthorn – Definitely gives the IND the edge
Kew – Labor never had a chance anyway so it’s a smart tactical move
Caulfield – I favoured Labor more here than Hawthorn, this makes it a bit more 50/50
Brighton – I think it makes a Labor gain more likely, especially with the huge GRN vote in Elwood
Sandringham – I never thought the IND had much chance here anyway
This result wouldn’t surprise and wouldn’t necessarily result in a lot of seats changing hands because there are many seats on unusually high ALP margins and unusually low Liberal margins. Lets take the four Frankston trainline seats – Bentleigh Mordialloc Carrum and Frankston all held by over 10% now no one would expect traditional marginals like these to stay safe for long.
@ Al Pal
While some of your post about voting habits is worthy of comment , I will take issue with your ” as I have said before” comment about Andrews being not trusted or even liked unlike Bracks.
I wonder whether you’re quoting Merdeoch media there.
Time and time again that comment is brought up but the polls tell a different story. You quote “Victorians”. Would be nice to see reliable polling to back that comment up.
As for Guy, you reckon, again, that Victorians see him as an ” L plater”. Nonsense. He’s been around for several elections, either as a leader or high profile MP and as a Minister in the last Liberal Government. He’s got real trust issues as a leader. Check out the polling .
“Quiet Victorians”? Again , your source? Or do you speak for a group of people who happen to
share your views?
Posting comments about how people think electorally is fine.
But don’t make generalised statements without backing them up with credible data.
Completed stint at Albert Park pre-poll this morning with Nina Taylor.
Plenty of people voting early. Mood was generally friendly – no sign of brickbats out for change. Nina may have even changed a vote or two.
There are 8 standing in the seat. Apart from ALP, Greens and Libs there are 3 RWNJs and 1 Animal Justice Party candidates.
There is also Georgie Dragwidge, an independent but by no means of the teal variety. She has a strong union background but is best known as the potato lady at South Melbourne Market and is running on a “community” program, whatever that means.
All other candidates have given Georgie their second preference. On this basis it is possible she could get enough first preferences (she is well known locally) to grab enough preferences from the RWNJs and AJP to get ahead of the Lib. If she can do that it is entirely possible for her to jump the Greens and/or ALP and then come from 4th to win the seat. Of course, the preference flows would need to be very strong.
It will be interesting to see if she takes more votes off the ALP or the Greens, because she will get votes.
One more thing, on the topic of Caulfield, I think the 4CP count will be interesting because due to the genuine Greens support in the west of the seat which will likely hold up against the IND, and after AJP preferences usually flow strongly to the Greens, you can’t actually rule out the IND being eliminated before the Greens and therefore their preferences will have no effect.
If both the IND and Greens finish somewhere in the 15-20% range and are within 1-2% of each other – which is roughly what I expect (with Labor in the 20s, and Liberal in the 30s) – then AJP preferences could eliminate the IND at the 4CP count.
@ Al Pal
While some of your post about voting habits is worthy of comment , I will take issue with your “as I have said before” comment about Andrews being not trusted or even liked unlike Bracks.
I wonder whether you’re quoting Merdeoch media there.
Time and time again that comment is brought up but the polls tell a different story. You quote “Victorians”. Would be nice to see reliable polling to back that comment up.
As for Guy, you reckon, again, that Victorians see him as an ” L plater”. Nonsense. He’s been around for several elections, either as a leader or high profile MP and as a Minister in the last Liberal Government. He’s got real trust issues as a leader. Credible polling shows that.
“Quiet Victorians”? Again , your source? Or do you speak for a group of people who happen to
share your views?
Posting comments about how people think electorally is fine.
But don’t make generalised statements without backing them up with credible data.
“Jeremy says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 9:46 am
Poll favouring Labor a touch methinks at the expense of the Greens. Not worth quibbling over. Redbridge and Kos extremely good at what they do. Labor should ease a little more till election day for a 52/53 to 47/48 2pp result. That really is minority government territory”
Ha, ha… keep predicting “minority government” Jeremy… one day, with some luck, you may get it right (by chance)….
🙂
@Windhover, thanks for the insight!
Out of curiosity, which part of the seat were you doing pre-poll in? North or south area?
I can imagine Georgie will probably do best in the northern areas close to South Melbourne / Port Melbourne. In that area the Greens vote seems quite “soft” so she might take equally from all 3 major parties around there. Whereas in the St Kilda area, further from the market and where the Greens vote is very solid, I don’t think she’ll dent the Greens vote as much.
Also I don’t think the RWNJs preferences will have too much impact on the 4CP count because they’ll probably only account for 2-3% of the total vote anyway, which will possibly be cancelled out by AJP (likely to get as much as the 3 RWNJs combined) preferences flowing strongly to the Greens.
Kevin Bonham reckons 2PP is 55-45 from Redbridge poll, which would be a minor swing of 2.3%.
Re: Preston – Gaetano Greco ran last time and got 6.9% (and provided the preferences that got the Greens over the Liberals into the 2CP). He’d probably need to double that to have a realistic chance of getting into the 3CP at either Green or Liberal expense. Labor won there on primaries last time.
“Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 10:57 am
Alpo: “the real ALP 2PP on election night will be higher than that.”
Jeremy: “Labor should ease a little more till election day for a 52/53 to 47/48 2pp result.”
Take your pick from your preferred pundit …”…
Ha, ha… but, but the problem for poor Jeremy is that my opinion was consistent with William Bowe’s view, stating that: “Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with.”
I mean, Jeremy vs William?…. That’s a non-contest, would you agree?… 🙂
Neighbourhood is a contemporary arts festival in the inner west. A free street party kicked it off on Friday evening in central Footscray. Heaps of people. A really relaxed atmosphere.
The ONLY party that made an effort to come along and socialise with the audience were the Victorian Socialists.
“Trent says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 11:48 am
The Greens HTV cards are online, it’s similar to what I expected – the genuine progressives higher than Labor”
“the genuine progressives higher than Labor”, Trent?…. What about “the progressives that have no chance of winning the election higher that Labor”, Labor being the only progressive party that can win elections on its own.
@Alpo, sorry if I worded that poorly. When I say “genuine progressives” I didn’t mean in comparison to the ALP, or having at a shot at the ALP’s progressive credentials.
I was referring to “genuine progressives” in comparison to the so-called “teals” who are more Liberal aligned like Felicity Frederico in Brighton, or in comparison to the “community independents” like Ian Birchall who are really just running against the government.
ie. I meant the more Labor-aligned independents, compared with Liberal-aligned (or “anti-Dan”) indepedendents.
And I think the reason they have done isn’t a reflection on Labor either, but just that in those traditional Liberal seats, a Labor-aligned independent probably has a better chance of keeping it out of Liberal hands for longer than Labor would.
The main point of my post was that I’m glad they didn’t preference the less progressive independents (like in Brighton) above Labor.
“Trent says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:38 pm
@Alpo, sorry if I worded that poorly. When I say “genuine progressives” I didn’t mean in comparison to the ALP, or having at a shot at the ALP’s progressive credentials.”…
Hi Trent,
Thanks for the additional information. Yes, I agree that the Teals do honour their colour (mixture of blue and red). Progressives on some policies, closer to the Liberals on others….