The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
That Redbridge poll is a bit stale: taken in the first week of the campaign apparently.
And the estimable Dr Bonham gets from it a 55-45 TPP.
Less than meets the eye to it methinks.
Also find it hilarious that the Herald-Sun is (again) beating the minority government drum: the more they do it the more it drives waverers into Labor’s arms.
You can be both liberal and progressive.
Alpo, I think it’s very much strategic, especially in Kew & Hawthorn. While personally I’d prefer to see Labor win them, I can understand the benefits of preferencing the “teal” in both.
In Kew I think it’s as simple as Sophie Torney having a much better chance of winning a 2CP vs LIB than Labor do, similar to the federal election.
In Hawthorn there may be some of that. I mean it’s Labor held currently so it isn’t like Labor aren’t competitive, but obviously ALP preferences would flow stronger to IND than the other way around, so it’s probably the safer bet to keep Pesutto from winning it back. And also, they probably see Melissa Lowe being able to hold the seat longer than John Kennedy would, ie. Beyond 2026.
Caulfield’s a bit more of a head-scratcher because to me, Labor are the favourites there anyway and it’s a seat that a Labor MP could entrench themselves in once elected. But again it may just be a case where they are looking long term, and think if there’s a swing against the government in 2026, an independent would withstand a swing against the government better than a government MP. Personally, if I were the Greens HQ I would still have preferenced Labor higher there.
Mostly, I’m glad that strategic or not, they didn’t preference Liberal-aligned “teals” like Felicity Frederico in Brighton – who clearly would have sided more with the Coalition if elected – just to increase the chance of a hung parliament.
On a slightly related note… It says a lot about the horrendous quality of the independents running in Mulgrave that the Greens have put the Liberals above pretty much all of them, at #5 on a ballot of 14! Clearly designed to keep it an ALP v LIB race and prevent an IND from making the 2CP and benefitting from LIB preferences.
Hello all, I’m recovering from COVID, although it sucks to not have left my apartment in a week.
I’m forecasting a moderate majority to Labor, off a two-party preferred in the order of 55%. Liberals won’t get much gains as they obtain most of their swings in the disadvantaged NW outer suburbs. They might pick up Hawthorn and maybe a couple of mid-outer eastern suburb seats like Ringwood. A few Teals will also win, and the Greens will probably win both Northcote and Richmond – not nearly enough losses for Labor to lose their majority. The 2026 election could be a nailbiter though.
Trumpism is never going to work in Victoria.
BT, thanks for that info on Preston.
Trent, lucky for me Dr John can’t read very well and didn’t understand the bet l was offering. l saved some $$$.
Looks like Sandringham and Brighton will be hard to win for independents although l still think Brighton will fall to independent.
SW Coast, anyone got info on candidates(especially independents) how to vote cards?
Green vote in Melton and Point Cook would be mid to high single digits and Greens preferencing Labor shouldn’t make much difference as Greens will generally vote strategically(to make it minority Labor).
Everyone that’s been following Mr Bowe’s Victorian blog closely for last few weeks, no I’m not Nostradamus, just not an ALP luvvie. Looks like election result will be just as I’ve been carping on about. MINORITY LABOR.
I would bet half my house that even Nostradamus, if WB didn’t banish him back to the grave, still wouldn’t be predicting any result in Victoria other than a Labor majority.
As the Liberals need another good thumping to motivate themselves to sort themselves out a close win by Labor will not be good for them.
In regards to Northern Metropolitan, looks like every progressive party plus the ALP trying to get Patten across the line. She has been an outstanding parliamentarian these last eight years. Hopefully she retains her seat.
frednk says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 1:28 pm
As the Liberals need another good thumping to motivate themselves to sort themselves out a close win by Labor will not be good for them.
—
I would have thought the 2018 destruction would have brought that on for them.
Clearly, some are slow learners.
frednk, a weak opposition is not good for democracy. You end up with a corrupt government like we have now.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:55 pm
You can be both liberal and progressive.”
In theory yes, not for nothing in the US progressives are called liberals. But in Australia the Liberal party has stopped being progressive long ago. In my view the last “progressive” Liberal party PM was Fraser.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:55 pm
You can be both liberal and progressive.
***********
Yes, but you can’t be a Liberal and progressive.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11423863/Victorian-Election-2022-Dan-Andrews-pesters-voters-one-safe-electorates-texts.html
WOW. Is Labor trying to save the furniture. Tarneit!!!
Hi all
Mrmoney is lining up to vote for the 2nd in command
Jacinta Allen then the rest
Alpo says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 1:58 pm
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:55 pm
You can be both liberal and progressive.”
In theory yes, not for nothing in the US progressives are called liberals. But in Australia the Liberal party has stopped being progressive long ago. In my view the last “progressive” Liberal party PM was Fraser.
——————————-
I’m talking more about the electorate and people and we saw this in the SSM vote when many Liberals voted yes and we will see the same with the voice vote and that’s why the Liberals are struggling in their heartland because they are far too reactionary.
andrewmck says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 2:24 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:55 pm
You can be both liberal and progressive.
***********
Yes, but you can’t be a Liberal and progressive.
——————
You can be both just as many ALP supporters are conservative on certain issues and Greens support conserving heritage. Australian politics has a long tradition of progressives sitting on both sides of politics and that’s why many leaders of progressive causes are from Liberal backgrounds.
Sending text messages during an election campaign – and while voters in Tarneit may have received them it doesn’t mean they were targeted to Tarneit, they look like generic messages – means nothing.
I received a text from the Prahran Greens today despite Prahran now being very safe for the Greens.
It’s funny. People firstly were saying Andrews is acting like Kennett in 1999 – which was characterised by Kennett taking a win for granted and not putting any effort in – but now criticising Labor for campaigning?
People will just write whatever narrative they want around any action. If Tarneit voters didn’t get texts, it would be Labor taking them for granted and 1999 all over again; if they do get texts, it’s Labor must be desperate.
The fact that the article is in one of the trashiest and least respected publications on the planet, and uses cheap emotive language like “Desperate Dan” in its headline, immediately erases its credibility anyway.
And what are we to make out of this?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-candidate-preferences-labor-over-greens-in-key-seat-before-backflip-20221114-p5bxyh.html
Mrmoney, Jacinta Allen!!! I suppose she has more real life experience than Dan Andrews. She spent like two weeks behind a cashier in a local supermarket. Surely you can find a better candidate to vote for Mrmoney.
Jeremy says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Mrmoney, Jacinta Allen!!! I suppose she has more real life experience than Dan Andrews. She spent like two weeks behind a cashier in a local supermarket. Surely you can find a better candidate to vote for Mrmoney.
———————
Jacinta must have done something right to turn her once Liberal leaning seat into a safe ALP seat.
Trent, you lack concentration and/or reading ability. Article states link of spam(didn’t big Clive get it from the pollbludgers for spamming) took recipients to Tarneit candidates propaganda.
Mrmoney
Thank you. An area close to my heart.
Do you think she will be Premier one day?
Admittedly I didn’t read all the detail, because it was the Daily Mail so anything it says is absolute trash anyway. The Daily Mail makes Murdoch rags look like the Washington Post by comparison.
I saw their idiotic headline and checked out. I can’t imagine anybody in their right mind would wilfully seek out a Daily Mail article, I don’t even know how one would stumble across one, and I can’t imagine anyone ever actually sharing a link to one, unless it’s to laugh at it.
You may as well link a story from Info Wars or a post from Truth Social. The Daily Mail is on the same level.
Trent, you always write your narrative around Labor. Doesn’t seem to matter what is written you try to put a positive slant on it for ALP. And l thought you stated you vote Green. Methinks you ALP stooge.
Mexicanbeemer, all Jacinta has done is play the factional games needed to become deputy leader. Quite an effort considering she same faction as Dan.
Are you suggesting that one can’t vote Greens while preferring ALP over LIB?
Greens preference flows say otherwise.
And yes I’m very supportive of the state Labor government because I think they have been the most progressive, productive and transformative government the state has had in my lifetime, and regardless of what the configuration of the next goverment is, the one thing I care the most about is the Liberals winning as few seats as possible and preferably being entirely gutted into oblivion.
The article you posted is a pro-Liberal article by a far-right conspiracy theory website. In that context, yes I will always defend Labor versus far-right RWNJs and their media. The Greens had nothing to do with the article you posted and are not remotely competitive in Tarneit.
Trent, you’re right about Daily Mail. It’s one of the crappest. I’m guessing you’re a New Daily kind of guy. Anything that supports ALP wholeheartedly.
‘Guy said there was a “growing wave of anger and resentment” against the premier in the state that makes him “more and more confident” that the Coalition will win the election.’
What’s that, Matt? Victorians are red-faced with anger?
So that’d be one of them-there ‘red waves’, right?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/14/victoria-election-launch-shows-labors-strategy-is-all-about-a-return-to-70s-style-power
Think the plan for Jacinta, dan beats the riff raff running in Mulgrave stays 2 years …….then hands over to Jacinta.
We have had a planning issue with council that Jacinta’s staff have been very helpful in dealing with.
Now if only Lizzie blandthorn would make a ruling but we missed the caretaker mode date.
Trent, have you heard of “GOOGLE”? I’ve been googling Victorian election news and lo and behold, Victorian election news appears in my feed. It’s a fang dangling thing this google l talk about. You should investigate.
Trent, you can vote for and preference whoever you like, we still a democracy even with ALP in power. Just you talk the talk but not walk the walk when it comes to the Greens who you supposedly vote for..Methinks you ALP stooge. Nothing wrong with that, just admit it.
Just got back from putting in my early vote in Wendouree. A rather short line, only 7 people ahead of me when I got there.
They put the early voting booth in the local shopping center too, so that was convenient. It also meant I didn’t see much posters or buntings up, although I approached from a different direction from where the HTV volunteers were standing.
Not expecting much movement on election night here, Wendouree’s a fairly safe Labor seat now. But there’s also early voting there for Ripon, so that should be more interesting to watch.
Planning issue with council Mrmoney??? Jacinta staff helped you with Mrmoney???
You a big developer Mrmoney???
That’s why you call yourself Mrmoney. Maybe you should call yourself Mrmoney thanks to the corrupt ALP that made me rich.
God you’re tedious.
Well ,Jeremy you’ve certainly got me pegged ……
What can I say ……”except. YOUR A FUCKING IDIOT. If that’s what you believe.
Lest you made me have a chuckle.
I’d be better off with the libs winning re planning issue,but there just Nuts.
Jeremy
Being anti developer might be cool for some but that’s why there is a housing affordability issue because someone has to develop and build the houses.
Mexicanbeemer, shame ALP don’t put any effort into social housing, as long as their developer mates make a quid. Pathetic, corrupt ALP we have.
Jeremy says:
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Mexicanbeemer, shame ALP don’t put any effort into social housing, as long as their developer mates make a quid. Pathetic, corrupt ALP we have.
————————-
The government is building social housing and developers play an important role in housing.
re: Jeremy & Mrmoney @ 3.28pm
Mate most of us here on Poll Bludger either ignore your less than lucid comments or respond.
The comment you directed at Mrmoney , in other forums would be considered defamatory and a cause for legal action.
How dare you imply that someone asking for the support of their local Member of Parliament is or was acting in a manner which could construed as being corrupt.
Jeremy keeps saying that people are ganging up on him or bullying him just because he’s not an “ALP luvvie”, but the reality is that it is not because he’s offering a “different perspective”, it’s because he has spammed every thread with nonsense.
Different perspectives are welcome and are not the issue. Maybe 1 out of every 8 of Jeremy’s posts (that’s probably being generous to him) are legitimate discussion about what he sees as Labor’s path to minority government, which seats might flip, etc. Even if people may disagree, there’s nothing wrong with that – that encourages interesting discussion.
Those posts are not the issue, and if those 1 in every 8 posts were all he was posting, people wouldn’t be reacting the way we are.
The problem is that those 1 out of every 8 reasonable posts are drowned out by a constant barrage of relentless, repetitive nonsense that offers nothing of value – just the same one line to “Vote Green or Independent” (even to people who already identify as Greens voters), links to propaganda accompanied only by “Labor minority firming”, airing his own personal grievances with “Dictator Dan”, cheap name calling and “lifters and leaners” rubbish, all interspersed with incessant advertising for Sportsbet and TAB.
15-20 posts per page of 50 being taken up with Jeremy constantly posting the same phrases and quotes over & over again, often in the form of 3-4 posts in a row (you know there’s an edit button to add to a previous post?), and often just to be argumentative for the sake of it, is the reason most people on here are sick of it and have piled on in response.
Not because we are “ALP Luvvies” and not because of the occasional post that actually provides a genuine counterpoint for discussion. It’s the barrage of tiresome nonsense and the same few phrases over & over & over again adding no value, just spam.
Trent @ 4.41pm
Thanks Trent, you have stated quite clearly what most of us PBs feel about the trite and repetitive garbage which regularly masquerades as comment from Jeremy.
His character assassination of Mrmoney was the straw, as I stated on an earlier post.
Well said and keep up the good work Trent!
Trent
?AI – the Turing Test?
The stinger stung? Schadenfreude.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/14/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-falls-for-animal-justice-partys-victorian-election-sting
As for GVTs, I’ve only given NE Metro a proper analysis so far, and Barton (Transport Matters) enjoys very early preference flows from a good chunk of all the parties. Although it all obviously depends on how the partial-quotas sketch up, TMP has very effectively gathered preferencing in NE Metro – in fact, it’s in the top half of every party’s GVT except for 4 – (Family First, Freedom, One Nation, United Australia). Although admittedly a number of the tickets feature Mr Barton a little lower in the middle than may be super useful especially if there is a surprise. I would definitely say the Greens aren’t in the running to finish their quota here.
In regards Mr Guy.
Going back some years ago now, Mr Guy stated that the Stamoulis family, a family which benefited by a number of Planning decisions of Mr Guy as the Planning Minister, Mr Guy then an Upper House Member, had no involvement in the Bulleen Branch of the Liberal Party to the knowledge of Mr Guy.
There was an article in the then “Independent Always” Fairfax publication, “The Age”, which, I am sure, can be Googled for confirmation.
Now, the original MP, from 1985, was David Perrin who, by my knowledge was a decent enough, well met, individual, his Electoral Office at Bulleen Village and he a Conservative, clashing with Kennett on a raft of social issues.
Again, media reports can confirm this.
Perrin was replaced by Kotsiras, of Greek heritage, in 1999 and in a very messy pre-selection, a pre-selection which included numerous claims of branch stacking.
Again, media reports can confirm this.
Kotsiras retired in 2014, under controversy relating to happenings within the Electoral Office and where the complainant was given a position in that office under the incoming Mr Guy, who transferred from the Upper House to the Lower House and Bulleen.
Again, media reports can confirm this (although they very quickly went quiet on the subject as Kotsiras left the scene).
Con Stamoulis, of “Gold Medal” fame plus property, played both sides of the political fence, which saw tenancies within his buildings concluded during the term of a Federal Labor government in the 1980’s and during a difficult time for property developers (and I am not suggesting anything untoward in these matters because the processes were what they were, but Con was known to Hawke as pm and, you could add, well known, Hawke’s Electoral Office where it was so in proximity).
Post Con, there have been periodic media items, including photos, of Harry Stamoulis and Mr Guy (and other Liberal Party MP’s).
Those items and photographs including other property developers connected to the Liberal Party (think Fisherman’s Bend).
No doubt they can be Googled.
In regards the Stamoulis family, it could be put that the family “controls” the Bulleen Branch of the Liberal Party, contrary to what Mr Guy says, noting they own the Yarra Valley Country Club in the electorate and that Con was resident in the Electorate, “Gold Medal” on Bell Street where it was, so heading down the dip and up the other side into Preston from Bulleen, on the left hand side of Bell Street.
And it could be speculated that they saw to the replacement of Perrin by someone of Greek heritage, then the pre-selection of Guy and his move from the Upper House.
So when Mr Guy puts that the Stamoulis family have no involvement in the Bulleen Branch of the Liberal Party to the knowledge of Mr Guy, and in the transfer of Mr Guy from the North-West Region Upper House Seat to Bulleen, this denial by Mr Guy could, at the very least, be challenged and investigated.
I think you may find that media reporting says Stamoulis family representatives refused to respond to the lead question, but I will leave others to attend the confirming of that response.
The fact that Mr. Guy denies is what it is.
A denial by Mr Guy which has been accepted by media – as is much else that Mr Guy says and alleges.
And untested over and above the denial and the allegations of Mr Guy.
In life you find those who live behind names and Organizations.
They are sometimes not who and what they portray to be.
And they think they are immune.
@Rocket that’s a fascinating article, and a brilliant move by the AJP!
Re this – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/14/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-falls-for-animal-justice-partys-victorian-election-sting
It’s clever in the short term to betray prior preference agreements, but it definitely will undermine other parties’ trust in the AJP at the next election after this one (if GVTs are still a thing then – hopefully Dan will grow a pair and abolish it). Props to the AJP though for the confidence.
I think the hope is that either of the following happens:
a) GTV gets abolished in this term; or
b) That the move will at least result in Drury’s group mostly failing this time, which will result in less parties negotiating with him next time, and the left-block that went outside Drury (Greens, AJP, Reason, LC & VS) become the more dominant block that basically renders Drury irrelevant if GTV does still exist.
I’ve only skimmed the rest of the GVTs but I think the Druery bloc won’t have too much trouble. Though I haven’t done any simulations yet so me saying that is mostly a guess based on where they’re placed and what I think each party might get.
Hopefully option a ends up being the case, and they be boring and just abolish electoral regions altogether and do one big at-large constituency like NSW, which gets around the problem of any ‘permanent advantages’ given by 5-member, non-GVT districts. This also allows smaller parties with a legitimate voterbase – eg CDP – to get up, in the context of the disproportionality of Australian lower houses.
Suck it, Druery.
Granted, the lack of ALP or Lib support for abolishing GVT is the ultimate problem, but acting in bad faith to fiddle the system for financial gain is dirty.
Does he still charge $5k to play and $50k per seat won?
Yeah honestly I’ve mostly just looked at Southern Metro and think that will go back to the Greens over Drury’s pick (which is clearly Sustainable Australia).
In 2018, if either Reason or AJP put the Greens ahead of SUS, it would have been enough for the Greens to get over a quota, and this time both have.