The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
I think AJP are banking on GVTs being abandoned by 2026, or else at the least they wanted to put this cunning plan into the minds of other micro parties who might then think about ambushing Druery.
Apparently when there were GTVs in the Senate (and of course they were quite strange because you could ‘split’ them 50:50 or 33:67 with two different GTVs for one party!) – the relevant Party heavies would assemble outside the place where they had to be submitted and sometimes they had several different versions depending on a bit of “You show me yours and I’ll show you mine” horse trading!
But aside from all these shenanigans, aren’t these upper house ballots looking awful with two “rows” – brings a whole new dimension to ‘above the line’ or ‘below the line’ voting. I would hate to be a poll worker trying to explain them to voters.
Navigating around the upper house ballot today was a little bit tricky. I voted below the line up to 20.
It was helpful that the above-the-line boxes helped me navigate to where the candidates I wanted to vote for were located.
The poll worker was very professional, explaining that I just needed to put a ‘1’ above the line, or ‘number at least 5’ below the line.
But I do hope group voting tickets are abolished next term and the upper house reformed.
Rocket Rocket, parties can still split GVTs 50/50 or 33/67 or 33/33/33 in Vic elections; parties can submit up to three GVTs to the VEC. Some have eg Labor in West Metro.
The “Sack Dan Andrews” party have 2 GTV tickets in SE Metro, that’s where one of them has Labor above the Liberals lol.
“ The order of Family First tickets consistently” has “Reason at the end.” Figures.
@Jack Stepney
Yes, that sounds about right. I remember back around 2010 when Sunrise was still relevant that they had a “debate” between Fiona Patten and a woman from FF, and it was an absolute farce. Patten was very reasonable and clear with her points, while her opponent robotically chanted “That’s not true, that’s not true, that’s not true”. I think that’s the origins of their vendetta.
Jeremy/Jezza
Monday, November 14, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Mexicanbeemer, shame ALP don’t put any effort into social housing, as long as their developer mates make a quid. Pathetic, corrupt ALP we have.
Jezza
How’s the yoga/meditation going?
Just looking at the lists compiled by Antony Green for the Legislative Council. It seems quite odd that in my own region, Western Victoria, no less than nine parties have Justice Party listed as their first preference, after themselves.
New Democrats, Health Australia, Shooters Fishers Farmers, Labour DLP, Liberal Democrats, Sustainable Australia, Transport Matters, Angry Victorians, Sack Dan Andrews.
When I look at the Justice Party’s preferences some of those benefactors are in the bottom half of the Justice Party’s list, so the favour is not being reciprocated.
It’s almost as though Derin Hinch has started up a heap of new parties so that his Justice Party can reap the benefits.
So that if you vote for Transport Matters or Health Australia thinking that you would like transport or health services to improve, yet your vote is giving strength to the Justice Party.
There’s something really odd about that.
Justice Party is preferencing those other parties you listed in other regions. Thats how Glenn Druery’s system works. They all get behind one or two parties in each region.
Thanks Justin.
Now I will go and have a look at the other regions.
I note that The Australian has a headline “Can Victoria afford 4 more years of Andrews?”
The question is, can Australia afford one more day of the Trump/Murdoch press in Australia?
And the aligned question is, why would Victorians vote as the USA Citizen, Murdoch, instructs them?
Can someone please explain how the heck it is supposed to work with two separate “Sack Dan Andrew Restore Democracy” tickets in SE Metro?
If someone votes for them above the line to they toss a coin which to follow? Or is it somehow regionally divided?
@Silly mid-on
If you vote for “Transport Matters” or the “Health” party hoping for better Transport or Health services, you’ve got bigger problems than the GVT.
The former is a Taxi lobby group, the second are antivaxxers.
Likewise, “Pets and Companions” is a lobby group for the horse and greyhound racing industries, and primarily are anti any laws concerning animal welfare.
Does the Liberals putting Greens ahead of Labor on their HTVs give the Greens a chance in Pascoe Vale or Preston?
Half your vote goes one way and the other half the other. When group voting tickets existed for the Senate, you were able to submit three tickets and have them divide equally, but in Victoria I believe it’s only two. When the system was introduced for the Senate, the Australian Democrats insisted on this so they wouldn’t have to pick a side between Labor and the Coalition.
taylormerde’s gansta buddy is going down… 😀
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/14/victorian-election-redbridge-poll-and-upper-house-tickets/comment-page-3/#comment-4010020
It does increase the Greens` chances, probably more so in Pascoe Vale where the Liberal vote is higher, but probably only from very low to low. It is mainly an ALP margin cutter in Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray.
Ahh you just carn’t stop them.
Channel Costello tonight with. Slug. Gate
Under investigation. After government inspectors find a slug in a Melbourne catering company’s factory, a public health warning erupts into a bitter David and Goliath brawl.
So Dan can be asked 50 questions tomorrow. About it
Leading to the headlines. Andrew’s refuses to answer questions.
What’s he hiding by refusing to answer our dumb questions
@William
Thanks. It still seems weird that, considering their name, they want even half their prefs to go to Labor.
I count 394 candidates in this state election (including incumbents, and combining lower and upper house) who have contested one or more of the last three elections (2018 state, 2019/2022 federal). 58 of them contested under a different affiliation. At the most recent federal election there were 36 Liberal Democrat candidates in Victoria. No less than 27 of them are contesting this state election, 8 of them as independents (1 of these had previously run as a Liberal in 2018), 1 for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 1 for Family First (had previously run for DLP in 2018), 1 for Freedom Party, and the remaining 16 for Liberal Democrats. In addition, all 9 of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 2022 federal candidates are contesting this election. Upper house incumbent Stuart Grimley is also joined by 3 of his family members on the DHJP state ticket.
In other news, Family First has in fact decided to preference the Coalition over the ALP in 86 seats. They will preference the ALP in Bulleen and Brighton. They have preferenced the Freedom Party first where they are running, and the DLP next. At the bottom are the ALP, AJP, and last the Greens, except in Western Metro seats where the Socialists are last and in Northern Metro seats where the Socialists are second last and the Reason Party is last.
One day I will have to actually put together my brilliant idea – the Australian Sports Party. With its supporting ticket being the Housing Party. Both of these are guaranteed vote earners. However, the Housing Party may have to mange internal problems between the Owners and Renters factions.
I’m afraid you’re too late Historyintime, both of those parties existed in the past but were deregistered. The Sports Party did win a federal Senate seat in its brief time in existence though! (albeit off o.23% of the vote)
@ Historyintime
Someone already had the idea for a Sports Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2013_Australian_federal_election_(Senate)#Western_Australia
@ GodlessHeathen
The sports party never won a federal senate seat. They initial won the 6th spot in the 2013 election, but after 1,000 votes went missing, the High Court ordered the election be re-done. The greens ended up taking the 6th spot in the re-run election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Australian_Senate_special_election_in_Western_Australia#Revised_national_totals
With the Greens preferencing Labor over the independent and Family First preferencing Labor over the Liberals in Brighton (although how many people actually hand out FF HTV cards and how many follow them could be negligible), some factors seem to be aligning to help Labor get over the line there if it’s a really close count.
Greens don’t have a big vote in South-West Coast, but they’ve preferenced Carol Altmann as their #2, and even the other independent ex-MLC James Purcell ahead of the ALP. Probably for the best because the ALP absolutely can’t win that seat, but they absolutely can block people who can from being in the TCP. They’ve also preferenced independents as #2 in Albert Park, Bass, Bayswater, Bellarine, Broadmeadows, Eildon (ex-GRN), Frankston (ex-GRN), Geelong, Hawthorn, Kew, Lara, Mildura, Monbulk, Mornington (ex-GRN), Narracan, Northcote, Pakenham (that one is quite surprising, pretty sure that’s an ex-LIB), Pascoe Vale, St Albans (also quite surprising, I think that’s a Garra style independent), Warrandyte. Jacqui Hawkins and Suzanna Sheed #3 ahead of the ALP in Benambra and Shepparton.
William, I have a question about upper house preference distributions, apologies if it’s a stupid question!
Just say a party gets more than 1 quota so their excess gets distributed, how is it decided which voters’ preferences are distributed and which just stay with the party as that first full quota?
As an example: say two people voted 1 for Labor, one above the line and one below the line, and Labor get 1.2 quotas.
How is it decided which person’s different preferences will be distributed as the 0.2 quota, or form part of the full quota that isn’t distributed? Is it just the order they’re counted, so it’s just luck? Or is there some sort of proportional calculation they do, eg. If 92% of all Labor preferences went to one party then 92% of the 0.2 excess goes to that party?
“If you vote for “Transport Matters” or the “Health” party hoping for better Transport or Health services, you’ve got bigger problems than the GVT”
Ride-share services are a criminal racket which is based on a blatant lie, that the vehicle is being shared, rather than hired.
They underpay their employees and skirt their obligations as employers on a massive scale and should be treated accordingly.
I feel absolutely no shame about giving Transport Matters a preference. I don’t think the outrage of taxi drivers is misplaced.
Uber drivers don’t even get superannuation! If you actually care about working people and workers rights and are hesitant about voting for Transport Matters, you are either very confused or don’t care as much about those things as you think you do.
The taxi industry was a government enforced monopoly for little to no benefit to anyone, other than the license owners who would trade scarce licenses for hundreds of thousands of dollars and 50% of the fare from each trip without ever having to go near a taxi. The taxi industry may or (quite often) may not have paid superannuation and similar entitlements, but they sure as hell never guaranteed anyone minimum wage.
The taxi industry was ripe for disruption and the world is a better place now that it has been disrupted.
It’s a shame that this still hasn’t resulted in the workers themselves receiving reasonable compensation for their efforts, but the tears of a few license owners whose investments in an artificially scare government monopoly tanked when the artificial scarcity was removed should hardly be enough to keep people up at night.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/14/victorian-election-redbridge-poll-and-upper-house-tickets/comment-page-3/#comment-4010114
When a candidate gets more than a quota (and it is always candidates, ATL votes are effectively just very easy to fill BTLs for the lead candidate with preferences according to the lodged GTV ticket(s)* ), Victoria doesn`t choose which voters` preference stay with the candidate and which are distributed, it uses a system of fractional surplus transfer (dividing it all the candidates votes into a fraction that stays with the candidate and a fraction that gets distributed), called Inclusive Gregory Surplus Transfer.
* In the no longer-GTV ATL systems (the Senate, NSW LC, SA LC, and WA LC) ATLs are easy fill BTLs only for the candidates of the group numbered, with further preferencing through further ATL preferences.
Goll, yoga/meditation don’t seem to work for me. I try not to abuse alcohol as this is only a short term fix. Occasionally l will have a cigar which l find very relaxing. Thanks for your concerns, others on this site just like to gang up and bully anyone with mental health issues(those that don’t vote ALP it would seem). Quite disgusting really. l have only ever replied to insults directed at me, not instigated any. Goll, l am a big believer in asking people RUOK? So l thank you.
l see the odds for minority Labor have halved on sportsbet.
Trent
ALL the votes in the pile are redistributed, but at a reduced value.
Imagine there’s a pile of Labor first votes, which have already been counted and the quota has been reached.
The election now proceeds as if that first candidate no longer exists.
The pile is picked up and the votes then distributed using their second preferences.
As they’ve already been counted once, their value is diminished.
This continues until the full number of candidates have been selected (with candidates dropping out each round, either because they don’t have enough votes or they’ve reached a quota), with the votes diminishing in value at each round.
To give you an idea of how important this makes even lower preferences, I was once elected to council because I was 15/16 on someone’s HtV – the final round saw me up against his 16th choice.
(The other side of this coin is that candidates are eliminated because they don’t have enough votes, and the votes in their pile are redistributed using the same principles).
I was once invited in to watch a count of an internal Labor election, using these principles. It’s a lot easier to understand when you’re dealing with actual piles of paper. From memory, the last votes distributed were worth 1/128th of a vote.
“Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 5:00 am
l see the odds for minority Labor have halved on sportsbet.”….
C’mon Jeremy, the more you repeat “minority Labor”, “minority Labor”… the greater the chances that it will happen. We all know that’s how it works, eh?… But above all, never ever forget to insert a pin in that Dan Andrews’ doll of yours on election night… If you fail to do so, it would cancel the effects of weeks repeating “minority Labor”…. Do voodoo professionally, mate, or suffer the negative consequences. The spirits are unforgiving against incompetent voodooists…. 🙂
“Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 3:49 am
… others on this site just like to gang up and bully anyone with mental health issues (those that don’t vote ALP it would seem). Quite disgusting really.”
Oh, you have “mental health issues”…. Now I understand!… But then, shouldn’t you stop writing posts? This activity is likely making you a bit nervous, tense, frustrated, angry, somewhat confused… That won’t help you mentally, mate…. Go and do some bushwalking, birdwatching, expressive movement dance…. even yoga… 🙂
Alpo, read my post in regards to answering Goll. I do hope everyone is looking after themselves as best as possible. Once this state election is over I’ll be fine, many many others will not. Mental health has been neglected by the ALP. Alpo, please be more sensitive to others, you might just save a life.
Isn’t Melton going to ba a fascinating count. ALP, Ian Birchall, Liberals, and Snakeman will all probably make the last four. In fact, add Point Cook, Werribee and maybe even Tarneit into fascinating counts that might occur in the western suburbs. Then we have SW Coast and Caulfied also that should produce interesting counts on the night.
Tom & Zoomster, thanks for the explanation! It sounds like a really complex process.
“Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 7:46 am
Alpo, … you might just save a life.”
That’s the whole purpose of my posts, Jeremy. Follow my advice, it may as well help save your life… But if you are waiting for a “hung parliament” to save your life, you are wasting your time….
Alpo @ #137 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 7:39 am
The problem for ‘It’ is that ‘it’ ignores all best intentions and rolls relentlessly along as ‘it’ has no detectable empathy for others except itself,perhaps due to a mental condition or just plain ignorance for the rest of PB posters.It’s all about ‘it’ and ‘its’ issues.
Now if ‘it’ was to heed the owners very gentle admonishments to post less and desist in repeating itself relentlessly fellow PB posters might take ‘it’ somewhat more seriously.
There always has been room for dissent on PB but ‘it’ is well over that line into Look at Me,I’m downtrodden territory.
Grime, you are a deplorable human. By calling me “IT” on several occasions in the one paragraph is nearly as low as you can get, especially when mental health issues are being discussed. So I’m sub human to you am l. Please keep those thoughts to yourself. Mental health is a serious issue that should be above petty, snide, ill informed remarks. Just want to get the boot into me also did you? Bully.
Neil Mitchell (3AW) reporting on some leaked ALP polling this morning (trusts his source he says)
ALP in “dire trouble” in the regions, especially around Geelong. Expect to lose half-a-dozen seats in Regional Victoria
Hawthorn, Oakleigh all but gone to Liberals
Richmond & Albert Park – Green gains
Werribee (Treasurer Tim Pallas) & Point Cook – Indies ahead
Andrews in Mulgrave “ahead but could go either way” with Ian Cook the threat
Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 9:16 am
So I’m sub human to you am l. Please keep those thoughts to yourself.
—
No one has called you that. But many people do think you’re a complete idiot.
Jeremy @ #143 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 9:16 am
Don’t ‘you’ compare yourself to sub humans,you might start giving others wrong ideas about ‘you’
in your La La universe I know not and (don’t really care) whether you identify as male,female or non binary”, you are just a stage name that routinely spouts garbage.
Refer to your dictionary for one of the many meanings of ‘It’
It:
pronoun
a person or animal whose sex is unknown or disregarded.
Then perhaps contemplate that you may very well be a complete and utter fuckwit as others have duly noted previously.
Bit scared to post here… but here goes, just interested in the chronology of the four most recent Vic polls: Newspoll 31st -4th (Primary vote 37/37); Redridge – HUN 31st -6th ( PB distribution on primary 36.7/35.5) ; Freshwater 3rd – 6th (Primary vote 37/34); Morgan 9th -10 ( Primary vote 40/29)
Prior to the official campaign launch: Resolve Age 20th -24th (Primary vote 39/31)
Is it fair to speculate that there is very little movement in the ALP’s primary vote average over the last 4 polls: 37.6% compared to the Coalition ‘s 33.9% – which seem to have drifted from 37- 34 -29. (I make no judgement as to the veracity of any of the polls).
The “tightening” seems to coincide with the start of the campaign when you would expect the coalition to gain from initial undecided.
Neil Mitchell is sitting on a huge scoop.
In other news, i’ll be buying the Collingwood Football Club in the morning.
somethinglikethat @ #146 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
Stop the presses Stop the presses,I’ve got a scoop…Hold the back page.
21.50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uil9jjO-EWQ
That Neil Mitchell headline illustrates one of the many reasons I could never be a journalist.
If I had limited space, just enough to write, say, three sentences, I would try to convey as much information as possible for the benefit of my readers. But professional journalist, who actually gets paid to do the job, simply says exactly the same thing three times.