The Herald Sun today has a statewide poll from Redbridge Group, but I’m unclear if the newspaper commissioned it or if the pollster just provided it to them. If the 10.4% undecided are distributed according to who they are leaning towards, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 13.2%, independents 8.5% and others 6.0%. Labor is credited with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, which is slightly narrower than my own estimates would come up with. The poll had a sample of 1181, but no field work dates are provided.
The big news on the electoral front is that the group voting tickets were published yesterday, which are available in the most digestible form from Antony Green, who says his calculators will “hopefully be published by mid-week”. My own take is that, aside from those I identify as the “main players” – Labor, the Coalition and the Greens – the myriad contenders can be grouped into three categories: the left; adopters of the Glenn Druery approach, who have the main players last or very close to it, on the principle that one small player is almost certain to win in any given region if they ignore their differences and preference each other; and a distinct network of right-wing and/or anti-lockdown parties who are directing preferences to each other, but taking a more clearly ideological approach than the Druery crowd as to who they have last or near-to-last.
The main players
Labor‘s tickets generally have small left-wing parties followed by the Greens, though here and there the Greens are also behind Shooters, Transport Matters and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. Behind the Coalition in all regions are Family First, Angry Victorians, the DLP, Health Australia, New Democrats, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy, the United Australia Party and One Nation. A theme that will emerge in how other parties are dealing with Labor is that a number have treated Labor unusually well in Northern Metropolitan region, perhaps have been persuaded that Labor can serve as a bulwark there against Fiona Patten and the Greens.
Coalition tickets have Labor last and punish no one for being too far to the right. One Nation are second or third on regional tickets, but behind United Australia, the DLP, Family First and the Freedom Party in metropolitan regions. The Greens have left-wing contenders plus Transport Matters consistently ahead of Labor, mostly centrists in the middle, the Coalition next along, and the obviously right-wing small parties along with the Companions and Pets Party towards the end. Interestingly, Angry Victorians are in every region one place higher than the Coalition.
The left
Legalise Cannabis leads with left-of-centre parties, with the Greens ahead of Labor everywhere but Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Angry Victorians are something of an exception to the rule, having been placed between fourth and seventh – ahead of the Coalition in all cases, the Greens in two (Northern Victoria and Western Victoria) and Labor in one (Western Victoria). After the Coalition comes a long tail of small parties mostly but not entirely of the right.
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party have left-of-centre parties at top in varying orders, with the Greens favoured over Labor everywhere except Eastern Victoria and Northern Victoria. Animal Justice have left-wing parties at the top end of the tickets, with the Greens mostly but not exclusively ahead of Labor. Labor is largely followed by combinations of Sustainable Australia, Health Australia, Transport Matters and, oddly once again, Angry Victorians, followed by the Coalition, with mostly right-wing minor parties in the bottom half.
The order of Victorian Socialists tickets is left-wing minor parties, Labor, centrist minor parties, the Coalition and right-wing minor parties (the latter taken to include the Companions and Pets Party, for reasons that may become clearer shortly). The Freedom Party is last across the board.
The Glenn Druery approach
Angry Victorians and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party have the main players dead last, with Justice making an exception in Northern Metropolitan where Labor are second. Angry Victorians have the Coalition ahead of the Greens and Labor and tend to have smaller left-wing parties towards the end, with some exceptions. The Democratic Labour Party have left-of-centre minor parties as well as Labor and the Greens behind the Coalition, but otherwise front-load micro parties, particularly those of the right.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Health Australia Party both have small left-wing parties mostly sharing the last places with the major players, whereas Transport Matters have right-wing parties (mostly the United Australia Party, One Nation, the Freedom Party and the Family First) at the very end, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens just above. Both Health Australia and Transport Matters have made exceptions for Labor in Northern Metropolitan, respectively putting them second and third.
Despite their name, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party are scarcely less punitive against the Coalition (and the Greens) than Labor, with right-wing small parties mostly dominating the top end. New Democrats has the major players consistently low if not always last, excepting that the Greens are placed fairly high in Northern Metropolitan.
The anti-lockdown right
One Nation favours Angry Victorians, United Australia Party, Family First, Freedom Party, putting them in various orders ahead of the Coalition everywhere except Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria, where the Coalition are respectively second and third behind Angry Victorians. The United Australia Party has either the Coalition or One Nation second, followed in most cases by the Freedom Party and Family First, and then in various orders the Health Australia Party, Liberal Democrats, Shooters and Restore Democracy.
The order of Family First tickets consistently runs Freedom Party, DLP, One Nation, United Australia, Shooters, Liberal Democrats, Angry Victorians, Restore Democracy, Sustainable Australia and Health Australia Party, Coalition and Labor, followed by various small parties of the centre and left with the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Reason at the end. Freedom Party are also consistent across the regions, leading with Family First, One Nation, Angry Victorians, United Australia Party and Coalition. After that parties are placed in descending order by leftness, with the curious exception of Transport Matters being dead last behind Victorian Socialists.
Companions and Pets Party preferences are feeding straight into the Coalition in all eight regions, of which you can make what you will. Right-wing minor parties do very well after that, and Animal Justice and the Greens notably badly.
I’ve been thinking about this Redbridge poll, and how it relates to some context around the previous Newspoll as well, and it really does make it seem not particularly reliable.
Firstly, let’s just acknowledge that there are broadly two types of polls:
1. Those whose purpose is to try to accurately & impartially gauge support for each party;
2. Those whose purpose is more strategic, to influence support or a narrative
YouGov/Newspoll is a well regarded member of the Australian Polling Council and has quite transparent polling methods. A newspaper commissioning a Newspoll from YouGov is less likely to be able to get YouGov to manipulate the results to suit their narrative.
What’s interesting is that the last Newspoll, commissioned by The Australian, barely even got a mention in the Herald Sun. Why? Both are News Corp. The Herald Sun uses Newspoll too. It clearly didn’t suit their narrative.
What’s interesting is that the Herald Sun then commissioned a poll through Redbridge instead – not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and a company known mostly for push-polling and campaign strategy consultation. Why did they not go through YouGov/Newspoll like usual?
The answer is most likely that they wanted a particular result, and wanted a pollster who was willing to manipulate the results to be as close to that as possible. I’d argue that they already had the headlines written and just wanted some numbers to support it.
With that context in mind, let’s now look at some quirks around this Redbridge Poll.
Firstly, how the 10.4% undecided was distributed based on “lean of unsures” actually made no sense.
* 29.4% of undecided leaned to “Other”, but their vote went from 2.9% to 3% (+0.1%)
* 26.7% of undecided leaned to Labor, their vote went from 33.9% to 38% (+4.1%)
* Only 20.5% of undecided leaned to Coalition, but their vote went went 33.4% to 38% (+4.6)
Why did the party who, out of those 3, had the smallest share of the “undecided” lean, get the biggest largest share of it?
Another interesting point that Kevin Bonham makes in his series of tweets, is that the poll is apparently “weighted” but there’s no transparency around the weighting method.
So, if the weighting has also applied to the distribution of those undecideds, that indicates a HUGE weighting towards the Coalition. Which means even their pre-undecided 33.4% is most likely boosted very significantly by whichever weighting method they used.
This in itself isn’t suspicious because obviously if more younger voters were polled, they would need to weight the results accordingly and proportionally increase the results among older voters, etc. All pollsters use some form of that.
But when you put this poll into the context of the Herald Sun choosing to commission Redbridge instead their usual YouGov/Newspoll, ignoring the previous Newspoll, the redistributed primary votes being inconsistent with other psephologists’ analysis, the 2PP being inconsistent with other psephologists’ analysis, the lack of transparency around the weighting methodology, Redbridge’s reputation as more of a campaign strategist & push-pollster, and of course the fact that there are clear push-polling questions in this poll itself, it does all paint a picture of the Herald Sun basically commissioning Redbridge to deliver a specific narrative.
That Neil Mitchell story is a hoot: total, unadulterated horseshit — suspect it’s a combination of him telling porkies and being played.
From 3AW’s website:
Neil Mitchell has been leaked internal Labor polling that has made the party “very edgy” about a number of key seats ahead of the November 26 state election.
Among the insights, the numbers show that Treasurer Tim Pallas is in danger of losing Werribee and the seats of Oakleigh, Albert Park and Point Cook are likely to go. The polling also has Liberal comeback kid John Pesutto ahead in the hotly-contested seat of Hawthorn.
The leak comes from a “source that has been spot-on for me twice before”.
Trent
Interesting – and of course the ‘threat’ of a Labor minority government (reinforced by some Herald-Sun op-ed talking about the dangers of a ‘greenslide’) may have the opposite effect to that intended, and ensure a Labor majority.
The Brownlow ‘meddle’ story has interrupted the ‘storyboard’ of this (news)paper in its daily anti-Labor front pages!
Rocket, I think reinforcing that “threat” of a minority government and/or Greenslide will absolutely have the opposite of their intended effect, and drive more voters to Labor!
Trent, Redbridge is a member of the Australian Polling Council according to the APC website.
Yes, the well known psephologist Malcolm Mackerras always said that the threat of ‘instability’ drove voters to look for stability.
I almost feel something for Mitchell’s listeners. If he’s all they’ve got, they’ll be assured that the dictator is on the way out. They’ll in shock in a few weeks time, wondering how ‘everyone else’ got it wrong.
Trent,
1. Agree with you re minority government talk driving waverers into Labor’s arms.
2. In Redbridge’s defence, they are a member of the Australian Polling Council.
3. Still, I find that poll dubious for many reasons. Not least its staleness. And the lack of transparency around the TPP calculation.
4. Some people here need to learn to take Kos with a grain of salt. He talks his own book after all. And he gives himself a lot of wriggle room: ‘polling is not prediction but a snapshot’ etc.
Justin you’re right, interesting. I thought I read somewhere the other day that they weren’t but maybe I confused them with another pollster.
That said, it doesn’t change all the other observations in my post around the Herald Sun strangely choosing them over Newspoll, the unknown weighting method, the results being inconsistent with what other psephologists estimate, the strange distribution of undecideds, the clear push-polling questions, and Redbridge’s roots in campaign strategy and using data to influence.
And it’s interesting that their slogan is “Influence with integrity”. 🙂
Toby Esterhase says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 12:46 pm
Among the insights, the numbers show that Treasurer Tim Pallas is in danger of losing Werribee and the seats of Oakleigh, Albert Park and Point Cook are likely to go.
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Let’s pretend they’re not talking straight out of their arses.
At the last election:
* Werribee (Pallas), primary vote 45.4
* Oakleigh (Dimopoulos), PV 53.5
* Albert Park (Foley), PV 43.3
* Point Cook (using Altona since it’s been replaced by Point Cook, Hennessy), PV 51.4
Mitchell is an imbecile for thinking any of those are lost.
2018 Vic Poll – Week 3 Neil Mitchell Update:
“Mitchell said the Opposition leader has a “new spring in his step” this week for a very good reason.
“I’m told private polling shows he has made up huge ground this week.”
“His law and order campaign is increasingly popular “
The idea that talk of a hung parliament motivates voters to deliver large majorities is one for which I have never seen a shred of hard evidence. A lot of anecdotal stuff, yes, but nothing concrete.
And there’s a lot of confirmation bias. Whenever there’s a landslide, we get “That’s because the voters were worried about the instability of a hung parliament,” but whenever there’s a wafer-thin majority or an actual hung parliament, not a peep. The last federal election is a prime example – loads of speculation of a hung parliament followed by votes for ‘other’ hitting a record high.*
And as for Malcolm Mackerras, when it comes to anecdotal evidence, he’s the King.
* Someone is probably going to look through the archives and tell me it wasn’t a record. Yeah, yeah, you know what I mean.
Albert Park might get interesting after the next redistribution if the VEC removes St Kilda but until then its a Labor seat.
The ALP has been nervous about Point Cook and Werribee for sometime but they should hold them this time but depending on their margin could be interesting next time.
Oakleigh is usually a marginal ALP seat so the ALP would be favoured to hold.
This Hun headline makes it sound like Dan is up against a collection of weirdos in Mulgrave
Only a very select few are privvy to internal polling. Always be very sceptical when this is leaked. For some reason it’s generally in both parties interest to portray a close result(probably to stop voters voting Green/minor/independents. This bullshit about punters scared of minority is crap. Voters dislike both Dan and the lobster with a mobster bloke, probably dislike Matt Guy(is that his name???) a lot more. Greens and independents are surging but Labor even remotely losing Oakleigh unless there is a quality independent seems fanciful . Pallas, lives in Williamstown, locals not like that. Dr Garra got circa 20% last time as a relatively unknown and the reason he running in Point Cook instead of Werribee is his residence got redistributed to Point Cook. Pallas in trouble. Albert Park, methinks gone to Greens while Point Cook will most likely go to Garra(well known now and that Harakaki(?)bloke from Frankston is a blow in. Locals not like that). Labor learnt nothing from Fowler. Fascinating election. Can we all please not insult me all the time. Thankyou. Might put a wager on Libs in Oakleigh. You never know.
VEC now has all the Greens, some Liberal, and a smattering of independent HTVs on the website.
Huntly Barton (Macedon), Denes Borsos (Polwarth), Charelle Ainslie (Nepean), Craig Cole (Monbulk), Patrizia Barcatta (Werribee), Lynnette Saloumi (Ashwood) all put ALP last
Chloe Mackallah (Bayswater) put ALP only above Freedom Party and Family First
Brett Owen (Pakenham) and Joseph Toscano (Mulgrave) gave no preferences.
All of those are lower profile independents with the exception of Owen, who is a 5 term councillor and appears to have a well organized campaign in a marginal seat with no incumbent. The area was in La Trobe at the federal election, which swung away from the ALP. Greens gave him their second preference ahead of the AJP and Labor.
Justin. Please keep posting. l find your posts are extremely informative.
Day two of early voting. Baseball bats out??? Doesn’t feel like it. Feels like minority Labor. But the more people that have voted means pollsters have a more accurate picture of what’s happening.
Jeremy: “Voters … probably dislike Matt Guy(is that his name???) a lot more.”
“Is that his name … question mark, question mark, question mark”: oh, that’s too cute by half, Jezza.
Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 2:24 pm
Day two of early voting. Baseball bats out??? Doesn’t feel like it. Feels like minority Labor. But the more people that have voted means pollsters have a more accurate picture of what’s happening.
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The baseball bats would have to be out for there to be a minority government because this government has such a big majority. If there was a uniform swing then the ALP has to suffer a swing of 5%+ to fall into minority status and Victoria only swings that much when the baseball bats are out.
And to clarify Mexicanbeemer, just before anyone in particular latches onto that the wrong way, that’s not a -5% PV swing (which polling does indicate) that would be required, but a -5% 2PP swing which is far less likely as it would have to correlate with a +5% LIB swing which there is no sign of whatsoever.
On a 0.6% margin, I could believe that Hawthorn is in play for John Pesutto.
The other seats, Mitchell cites, with margins between 9.1 – 13.1% seem like Fantasy Land stuff.
Considering all of the recent and reputable polls are suggesting a swing towards the government, with a 2PP percentage of either 56/57%, only Hawthorn could be considered a remote gain for the LNP.
Matthew Guy or Lobster or Matt Guy? As I’ve stated plenty of times, baseball bats aren’t required for minority Labor especially in seats like Point Cook and Werribee for independents and Albert Park, Richmond, Northcote for the Greens. Box Hill, Pakenham, Ashwood also don’t need the baseball bats.
If baseball bats out, majority Coalition happening. And l don’t see that happening.
Macca RB. Recent and reputable polls have Labor approximately 54/46 and easing. That’s a swing towards coalition before the Greens and independents taken into account.
Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Matthew Guy or Lobster or Matt Guy? As I’ve stated plenty of times, baseball bats aren’t required for minority Labor especially in seats like Point Cook and Werribee for independents and Albert Park, Richmond, Northcote for the Greens. Box Hill, Pakenham, Ashwood also don’t need the baseball bats.
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If they are the only seats that fall then the ALP would be returned with 49 seats and if they lost Box Hill and Ashwood then they would lose Hawthorn and if that happened then the ALP might also lose Ringwood and Bayswater but that still gives the ALP a majority.
I do feel now that if Hawthorn remains a LIB v ALP race then Pesutto would likely win it; but if Melissa Lowe is able to beat John Kennedy into a 2CP count then I think it’s an IND gain because it’s likely that whatever the outcome, the presence of an IND will most likely drop Pesutto’s primary vote below 40%, and Melissa Lowe would reap the overwhelming lion’s share of Labor & Greens preferences.
I can picture a result along these lines:
Pesutto: 38-39%
Kennedy: 21-23%
Lowe: 21-23%
Greens: 10-12%
On those numbers, if Greens preferences flow stronger to Lowe (based on Kooyong and their HTV card it’s most likely) it will probably be a Pesutto vs Lowe 2CP.
Just say the combined Greens+Labor+AJP vote is around 35%, that will likely split around 29-6 in Lowe’s favour already putting her over 50%.
However, if Kennedy was able to stay above Lowe, I think Pesutto would narrowly win because Greens preferences would split around 10-2 to Kennedy, but he’d also probably need at least 70% of Lowe’s preferences which is less likely as I think they’ll split a bit more evenly than that.
I don’t know how recent your polling data is Jeremy.
My most recent, reputable poll, Morgan -11/11/2022 has the ALP 2pp at 57%.
The LNP at 43%.
That is an increase of 0.7% since the last election for the ALP.
Such numbers suggest, based on the 2022 Electoral pendulum a gain of 4 LNP seats: Sandringham, Brighton, Bayswater & Bass.
Even allowing for a 1/2% margin of error it portends a re-elected majority ALP government.
@Jeremy: “Macca RB. Recent and reputable polls have Labor approximately 54/46 and easing. That’s a swing towards coalition before the Greens and independents taken into account.”
—
Not quite accurate, that’s a 2PP swing to the Coalition *after* Greens & Independents have been taken into account. It’s not a swing to the Coalition PLUS a swing to Greens & Independents on top of that.
Also only one poll had a 54-46 result which is the closest so far, but most analysis of that poll by psephologists like WB, Kevin Bonham and Antony Green all agreed that based on the primary votes, they calculate a higher one.
The others have all still been around the 56-57% range for Labor and even the Redbridge poll, which most agree is heavily weighted towards the Liberals and had a baffling redistribution of ‘undecided’, was calculated by Kevin Bonham to be around 55.5%.
Thanks Trent, for supplying those details.
Based upon those figures, the KB 2PP for Redbridge, may see the possible loss of Hastings, Caulfield, Hawthorn & Nepean.
I’ll still stick with Morgan (for now).
I doubt John Kennedy finishes third in Hawthorn only because its the sort of electorate that has benefited from this government’s social policies.
Hawthorn is a tough one to predict, possibly the biggest “toss up” out of all 88 seats for me.
I absolutely don’t think his primary vote will crash like the Labor vote did in Kooyong at all. But with the presence of an IND, it will probably reduce to somewhere in the 20s, considering it was only in the low 30s to start with.
I think he’ll finish slightly ahead of Melissa Lowe… But if the Greens get 10-12% and their preferences break something like 60-30-10 (IND-ALP-LIB), she could win from third like Sam Hibbins did twice in Prahran.
I do think all 3 have a genuine, realistic chance of winning the seat and it could go any way.
The other factor too Macca is that I don’t think the swings will be anywhere near uniform. I mean they never are uniform anyway but this election in particular I think will see swings in two distinct directions in different areas.
If Labor are suffering swings of 5-10% (2PP) in the outer northwest and pockets of the outer southeast, but their statewide 2PP is holding up, that means other areas are swinging the opposite way. And I think that’s the inner south (Brighton, Caulfield, Sandringham) and middle-ring eastern suburbs (Glen Waverley, Box Hill, etc possibly all the way to Ringwood).
And as we all know, even a -1% swing will lose the Liberals about 3-4 seats to Labor in the inner-to-middle southeast, but Labor could hypothetically suffer -15% swings in some outer northwest seats (they won’t) and still hold them!
The main seats I see Labor losing to the Libs are those on slim margins in the outer southeast – Nepean, Hastings, Pakenham. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor hold onto everything in the northwest, or possibly only lose Melton.
The ALP and Lib are availing themselves of Austpost letter box drops in Bass with ALP running about 2 to 1 with drops almost up to daily since last week.Of the others 1 green,1 somebody else with an axe to grind.
Main cor flutes seem to go to the National candidate on residential and farmland,several of which have had make overs of the eyebrows and mustache variety.Liberal ones appear on vacant blocks but not so many on residential homes.
odd greens and a purple one that was too far from the road to make it out.
No real rash of Labor ones and hard to find.
The Liberals hold as many seats under 2% than the ALP holds by up to 5%.
somethinglikethat, have you seen Neil Mitchell’s versus ABC’s Virginia Trioli percentage of listeners. Since Covid peak Virginia has bled listeners to Mitchell. l can’t stand Mitchell and the advertising thus I’m a Virginia fan however l don’t have blinkers on. Raf l am a fan of and well……….
A couple of seats that are very rarely spoken about are Croydon and Evelyn. They’re on tiny Liberal margins, and the outer-east is a region where there is no real consensus on which way they might swing.
People expect some possibly substantial swings against Labor in the outer northwest & outer southeast, they expect the trend of the affluent inner southeast abandoning the Liberal Party to continue its steady march, and they expect Labor to comfortably hold (or gain in Glen Waverley’s case) the SRL corridor, but there are some really marginal seats in the outer east which could go right down to the wire – Croydon, Evelyn, Bayswater, Ringwood, even Warrandyte – and it’s the Libs who have a lot more to lose there with only 1 of them (Ringwood) being held by Labor.
Macca RB, Morgan. Are you serious. Morgan!!!!! Morgan PFTTTTTTTT. PFTTTTTTTT. PFTTTTTTTT.
Funniest thing l heard all week.
Jeremy, I’ll go with Morgan over your un-named polling source,
Or are you sticking with the unreliable Redbridge?
Thanks, Trent, for some very interesting and incisive comments regarding the Vic. election.
Greens and independents surge. Albert Park, Richmond, Northcote gone from ALP. Melton, Point Cook, Hawthorn gone from ALP. Footscray, Bellarine, Werribee too close to call.
4% swing to Liberals from ALP.
ALP in big big trouble.
Minority Labor government.
And that’s on 53.5/47.5 2pp.
Jeremy @ #185 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 3:39 pm
Somebody please open a window I detect anal leakage.
Macca RB
Newspoll and Kos from Redbridge.
Morgan. PFFFFT
Grime. You are disgusting.
Jeremy @ #189 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 4:03 pm
The sooner you get help for your anal leakage, the sooner you get relief.
Jeremy @ #190 Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 4:05 pm
Oh I know Darl,the wife has been telling me that for years.
Trent, agree. If a swing to ALP is on. And seriously are you serious??????
I’m with you Macca, I’ll also go with Morgan whose polls have mostly been very consistent not only with each other but also with Resolve Strategic (who were among the most accurate in May), and the 56-44 that most analysts translated the most recent Newspoll into based on the primary votes.
Unlike Redbridge who provided a clear-cut case of push-polling for the Herald Sun including leading questions about the health system being in “crisis” and a mysterious calculation that somehow translated the 20% of 10.4% undecided voters leaning Liberal into boosting the Liberal vote by 4.6%.
Trent – yes Hawthorn is different to Kew (or Federally Kooyong) because it has a sitting Labor member. In Kew Labor is running dead and their vote will be quite small (maybe like the 7% in Kooyong) and I expect the Independent to win easily (against no incumbent with Tim Smith retiring) off a primary vote of 35-40% and then Labor and Greens preferences.
Hawthorn – the Greens make this a hard read – they got 18% last time but I think this may fall with some voters going for the Independent because of the impression they could win the seat. I think that Labor could only win if they are second at the 4CP stage Lib-Lab-Ind/Grn.
I spend a fair bit of time in the outer East and I have no idea whether Labor may improve their position there – there are certainly a few possibilities though they are hard to judge after the 2018 landslide.
Jeremy, at least I subscribe to polling sources, when rounded, come to 100%.
Your spot on polling (un-sourced) @ 4.01pm, showing 53.5% Alp – 47.5% LNP rounds up to 101%.
Maybe they added the margin of error to the LNP 2pp or was it one of those wonderful Herald-Sun polls?
Rocket I agree about the outer east.
The impression I get is that there isn’t really much of the anti-Dan sentiment compared to the outer west & southeast, but after swinging pretty hard to Labor in 2018 the question is more about whether that was a high watermark, will it be much the same, will there be a small “correction” back to the Libs, or has Lib support slipped further? It’s pretty hard to tell I think.
There’s no really noticeable ‘vibe’ that heavy media coverage is reinforcing (or influencing) such as outer northwest voters feeling neglected by Labor, or inner east voters feeling abandoned by the Liberal Party’s rightward lurch.